Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I'd be very annoyed if the Devils traded Luke for the 1st overall pick this year, I think he's worth more than any prospect in this draft. That's not true for any other prospect in the Devils system.

 

[Hisch13r]

What would be a realistic trade package from Arizona or Seattle to move up if Wright falls

I doubt Arizona moves up. They'd probably rather just have Cooley and the assets. I'd also rather just take Wright than move down with Seattle.

I'd be very annoyed if the Devils traded Luke for the 1st overall pick this year, I think he's worth more than any prospect in this draft. That's not true for any other prospect in the Devils system.

I mean there's no reason to get worked up over that because it would literally never happen.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

What would be a realistic trade package from Arizona or Seattle to move up if Wright falls

Arizona might offer the 27th overall pick to move up one spot, they have 6(!) picks from 27 to 45.

 

[ninetyeight]

I love it! If we somehow luck out with Wright and he becomes the player he was predicted to become when he was 15yo, every fanbase is gonna hate us.

I think realistically MTL is still gonna take him because of their need for a C, but this should give more weight to the argument that Slaf is a true #2 ahead of Cooley, Nemec and Jiricek.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I mean there's no reason to get worked up over that because it would literally never happen.

I'm saying hypothetically, as a thought experiment to gauge prospect value.

 

[Normal Devil]

Arizona might offer the 27th overall pick to move up one spot, they have 6(!) picks from 27 to 45.

I could see something like this .. either 27, or a couple 2nd rounders to move up. Devils take Nemec at #3.

 

[beekay414]

based on box score scouting

There's your first problem

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

If it wasn't for his inflated goal scoring totals his production would've been more in line with DY Quinn. I think there's a case but he likely doesn't end up going 1.

I’m convinced you’d prefer a player shoot like 2% so you can just say “but he shot a low percentage!” lol. Scoring goals is good. No one thinks he will do that consistently at that rate. The fact that he did it at his age speaks to his talent level, not how lucky he was getting (especially considering how many goals came from in tight after weaving through the defense).

How many of those turn into primary assists if a goalie stops them and they score on a rebound? You can’t just magically subtract points.

 

[Hisch13r]

I didn't watch his playoffs, but he didn't seem to be the best player on Kingston based on box score scouting and then the team disappointed. Keep in mind he only played two OHL seasons. So if he's bored in his 2nd OHL season, in which he wasn't the best player on his team and they didn't win anything...not to be an armchair psychologist but IDK how you can take him 1st really.

If we're basing it off of box score scouting then how do you take Slaf 1st either? His Liiga production is awful for a top pick.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

I happily select Wright if he’s there. Only thing I’d trade the pick for would be to swap picks with the Flyers in exchange for their first next year unprotected. They might be dumb enough to do it,

 

[Hisch13r]

I’m convinced you’d prefer a player shoot like 2% so you can just say “but he shot a low percentage!” lol. Scoring goals is good. No one thinks he will do that consistently at that rate. The fact that he did it at his age speaks to his talent level, not how lucky he was getting (especially considering how many goals came from in tight after weaving through the defense).

How many of those turn into primary assists if a goalie stops them and they score on a rebound? You can’t just magically subtract points.

Scouting is about projecting future performance. Inflated SH%s are not sustainable moving forward. I think people see the outrageous goal and pt totals and he gets overrated because of it. Luke is great. Luke is not this slam dunk superstar that people seem to think he is. He can be but expectations for some have gotten way too high.

Were you not someone who agreed that Zacha's performance last year was overrated because of his inflated SH% and that he would come back down to earth this year because of it? Shooting 17.5% as a Dman and being tied for the best NCAA goal scoring D season in a decade is great but also a mirage.

 

[Mgd31]

What would be a realistic trade package from Arizona or Seattle to move up if Wright falls

Eh nothing probably, only because I am not confident in Fitz picking something good with a late first or 2nd lol.

 

[Brodeur]

Tough to compare year to year, but at the 1998 Draft San Jose traded #2 and #85 to Nashville for #3 and #29. Sharks had drafted Patrick Marleau the previous year and wanted a cornerstone defenseman. Meanwhile this was Nashville's first draft and they wanted a high scoring forward to be the face of their franchise. Unfortunately that pick ended up being David Legwand.

Arizona: #3, #27, #32, #34, #36, #43, #45, #67
Seattle: #4, #35, #49, #58, #61, #68

Rick Dudley and Doug MacLean pulled off an interesting trade at the 2002 Draft. Florida moved from #1 to #3 and received the right to swap 1st round picks in 2003. Columbus essentially used its lottery odds as an asset. Florida ended up winning the lottery outright so in the end Columbus gave up nothing. Different lottery rules back then, so I couldn't imagine Arizona or Seattle giving up its Bedard lottery ticket but would be a fun scenario.

Dudley tried to auction off the #1 pick in 2003 (they had Nathan Horton at the top of their list) to Carolina and Pittsburgh but had to settle for a meager return since there wasn't much demand: #1 and #73 for #3, #55, and Mikael Samuelsson.

 

[Devils731]

Slafkovsky edges Wright for top spot in McKenzie’s final draft ranking - TSN.ca

““It’s a peculiar draft year,” said one NHL team head scout. “Neither one of them [Slafkovsky or Wright] are locks to be first-line players in the NHL. I’m not saying one or the other couldn’t become first liners, they’re both good prospects, but unlike a lot of years, this draft doesn’t have any great prospects. There are no slam dunks. There are things I like about both guys, but I have some reservations, too.””

“”What separates Slafkovsky from Wright for me is that he’s bigger, he played harder, he was more consistent with his competitiveness, and he stepped up to produce on big stages [Olympics and world championship],” another NHL head scout said. “In my view, he has the best chance to be a first-line NHL forward.””

—————-

It is a little concerning that 2 head scouts both aren’t even sure these are first line players. You can only draft who is available but even the right call could end up being just a good player.

 

[Normal Devil]

What would be a realistic trade package from Arizona or Seattle to move up if Wright falls

A couple second round picks from Arizona to NJ

 

[Hisch13r]

Slafkovsky edges Wright for top spot in McKenzie’s final draft ranking - TSN.ca

““It’s a peculiar draft year,” said one NHL team head scout. “Neither one of them [Slafkovsky or Wright] are locks to be first-line players in the NHL. I’m not saying one or the other couldn’t become first liners, they’re both good prospects, but unlike a lot of years, this draft doesn’t have any great prospects. There are no slam dunks. There are things I like about both guys, but I have some reservations, too.””

“”What separates Slafkovsky from Wright for me is that he’s bigger, he played harder, he was more consistent with his competitiveness, and he stepped up to produce on big stages [Olympics and world championship],” another NHL head scout said. “In my view, he has the best chance to be a first-line NHL forward.””

—————-

It is a little concerning that 2 head scouts both aren’t even sure these are first line players. You can only draft who is available but even the right call could end up being just a good player.

It sucks but I'm really not surprised by that. I remember a lot of people saying Nico would be like a high end 2C/low end 1C and Wright's had a similar DY to what Nico did. I also think Slaf's most likely outcome is a complimentary 2nd liner.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

There's your first problem

If we're basing it off of box score scouting then how do you take Slaf 1st either? His Liiga production is awful for a top pick.

Fine not solely box score scouting, there are reports from scouts who watched the games that he had an underwhelming playoffs that I've also read. His very first OHL playoffs mind you. So he was bored and uninterested in his first OHL playoffs? The idea that he has nothing to prove in the OHL doesn't seem accurate really is what I'm getting at, and if he's got that attitude it's a red flag.

RE: Slafkovsky I believe the read is he got limited minutes on a terrible team. I understand the liiga is kind of a mess with a few great teams and a lot of bad teams, also it's a league with adults, so the dynamic is a bit different.

 

[JimEIV]

If it wasn't for his inflated goal scoring totals his production would've been more in line with DY Quinn. I think there's a case but he likely doesn't end up going 1.

Inflated or not...

In Luke's first 20 NCAA games he had 18 points to December 11th

Luke Hughes - Ice Hockey - University of Michigan Athletics

Luke Hughes (43) D - NHL • Selected 4th overall (first round) by the New Jersey Devils in the 2021 NHL Draft • Signed a three-year contract with the Devils o...

mgoblue.com

In Wright's first 20 OHL games he had 24 points to December 2nd - Ontario Hockey League – Official Site of the Ontario Hockey League

I don't see any way Luke wouldn't have passed him in the mid-season rankings.

 

[Devils731]

It sucks but I'm really not surprised by that. I remember a lot of people saying Nico would be like a high end 2C/low end 1C and Wright's had a similar DY to what Nico did. I also think Slaf's most likely outcome is a complimentary 2nd liner.

And that wouldn’t be “bad”; it would help the team a lot to get another Nico level player.

I guess I post that after seeing some discourse about one or the other being monster prospects or the sure thing for #1 and I don’t think either has done enough to be at that level of discussion.

 

[Hisch13r]

And that wouldn’t be “bad”; it would help the team a lot to get another Nico level player.

I guess I post that after seeing some discourse about one or the other being monster prospects or the sure thing for #1 and I don’t think either has done enough to be at that level of discussion.

Yeah I've love another Nico and am hoping Montreal f***s this up. Just a bit unfortunate it's not a higher projection

 

[Guttersniped]

well you didn't watch the wc then. He certainly has flair to his game. A lot more than I expected honestly.

Nothing worse than a lack of flair.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Scouting is about projecting future performance. Inflated SH%s are not sustainable moving forward. I think people see the outrageous goal and pt totals and he gets overrated because of it. Luke is great. Luke is not this slam dunk superstar that people seem to think he is. He can be but expectations for some have gotten way too high.

Were you not someone who agreed that Zacha's performance last year was overrated because of his inflated SH% and that he would come back down to earth this year because of it? Shooting 17.5% as a Dman and being tied for the best NCAA goal scoring D season in a decade is great but also a mirage.

I’m aware that shooting percentages can be a mirage. I don’t consider Luke a superprospect because of his goal scoring, — it’s because he’s one of the best skaters I’ve ever seen at his age.

 

[Guttersniped]

Reading the complete meltdown on the Habs board is absolutely hilarious

The conspiracy theories are gold.

It’s only a couple of posters, but “Bob hates the Habs too” takes their persecution complex to new heights.

And Bob’s to blame for the Habs taking Kotkaniemi at #3 because he rose to #5 in his final 2018 scouts poll (which still had Tkachuk at #3 & Zadina at #4 but whatever).

 

[Devils731]

I’m aware that shooting percentages can be a mirage. I don’t consider Luke a superprospect because of his goal scoring, — it’s because he’s one of the best skaters I’ve ever seen at his age.

Also, a really high shooting percentage, while not sustainable, does suggest some shooting percentage talent.

An example, Petr Nedved shoots 25% his rookie year and while he wasn’t the greatest shooter of all time, he still shoots 14% for his career.

Defenseman are more variable in shooting percentage though so they probably have more variability without showing true talent than a forward would.

 

[OmNomNom]

i think if we're choosing between wright and cooley, we end up going cooley

obviously we'll still need size, but i don't think you go wright just for that sake - if we have our 1C/2C set, we should be looking at someone who can pivot to being a dynamic winger