It sort of reminds me of Nico vs Nolan with the dynamic player vs the more safer player. I had Nico over Nolan then because I thought he was better. Here though I'd take the less dynamic player in Wright because I think he is better. I think Wright could be like a 30-35 goal two way wing if we transition him there. Go get Fiala as that dynamic winger
Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion
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It sort of reminds me of Nico vs Nolan with the dynamic player vs the more safer player. I had Nico over Nolan then because I thought he was better. Here though I'd take the less dynamic player in Wright because I think he is better. I think Wright could be like a 30-35 goal two way wing if we transition him there. Go get Fiala as that dynamic winger
JimEIV
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My goodness I would not want to be a #1 overall going to Montreal. You know that is going to be a pressure cooker.
Yes but I'd want more than 1. Maybe Mercer can be another and Wright would then be the 3C. I like Wright as a top 6 goal scoring two way wing though with Mercer as the 3C and adding a winger like Fiala more.
BenchBrawl
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I don't like putting down Scouching, but his rankings are generally pretty far off from the people at the top of the draft ranking business. I like Scouching because he puts in the work and has a rather unique outlook on prospects, but ultimately his rankings rely too much on narrow criteria he overly relies upon. Anyway, here are his rankings, with Lambert at #2 and Slafkovsky at #5:
Scouching's 2022 April Draft Rankings
Welcome back to another season of Scouching Reports! To celebrate the launch of this season of videos, I've released a set of rankings for April. This season's draft class has been a tough one. I...
www.scouching.ca
Sharangovich may have a bit more to offer in terms of development. He could mature into a 30 goal guy. If NJ does add a Fiala or Debrincat or Miller I trust it is with a livable extension and it does not require a number 2 overall pick. I still think it all has to start with a goalie and until I get that lined up I'm not dealing anything of substance away. If WPG calls and says give us the second overall for Hellyebuck and the WPG first and a decent prospect I'd like to consider that before I worry about another winger on a team that could score OK but couldn't stop a beachball.
ninetyeight
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I don't like putting down Scouching, but his rankings are generally pretty far off from the people at the top of the draft ranking business. I like Scouching because he puts in the work and has a rather unique outlook on prospects, but ultimately his rankings rely too much on narrow criteria he overly relies upon. Anyway, here are his rankings, with Lambert at #2 and Slafkovsky at #5:
Scouching's 2022 April Draft Rankings
Welcome back to another season of Scouching Reports! To celebrate the launch of this season of videos, I've released a set of rankings for April. This season's draft class has been a tough one. I...www.scouching.ca
Thanks! I'm pretty high on Lambert (and biased) but even I have hard time putting him into top5. Unless we are talking about potential ceiling only. You just can't ignore the fact that he has struggled in Liiga, it has to affect his ranking. And sure a lot of the CHL and USDP junior league prospects could have struggled in Liiga too, but we can only go with what we see.
Anyway his rankings maybe crazy but I do appreciate that it's his own and he doesn't seem to care how everyone else sees the draft. Too many fans and media just take some sort of average combination from other rankings and claim it as their own. I'll have to look into his previous years to see how they hold up now.
Edit: the previous years seemed more inline with the general consensus, apart from few guys too low/high
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one thing i read is that bob mckenzie's #1 overall ranked player has always gone first overall since he started doing it...... food for thought - but records are also made to be broken....
I mean it’s not like we’re not going to add a goalie. I’m not moving the pick for 29 year old 2 years away from being a UFA regardless of how great Hellebuyck is. They’d have to be adding Perfetti and they’d obviously never do that. I don’t have interest in Miller. Debrincat I’d do if it’s just Holtz or 2 as a main piece and smaller stuff on top of that. Can’t see that happening though. Fiala could be a relatively cheap trade relative to his actual on ice value. I’d love to go into next year with a top 6 of Jack, Nico, Bratt, Fiala, Yegor, and Mercer with Wright as the 3C. That gives another year to really get a look at Yegor as a top 6 guy vs 3rd line long term. It gives Holtz another year if needed or maybe he could step into a top 6 role and be great off the bat and we move down Yegor or Mercer. I’m not going to just not add someone as good as Fiala for what could be a reasonable deal because Yegor could be great or because there’s a bigger issue like goaltending.
youryeah
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still think MTL takes wright but I feel a lot less confident saying so than I would have a month ago. either way a win for the devils!
Yeah, but in most years there is a clear cut #1 player.
As the article also says:
One, if you were to survey another group of 10 scouts, you could very well end up with the same 5-4 split, but in favour of Wright. It’s really that tight in the eyes of so many scouts.
Two, this “consensus” ranking has nothing to do with the preference of the team — the Montreal Canadiens — that is picking first overall. Club order of draft selection is not a factor in our survey of scouts and TSN’s ranking of players.
Given that it's basically a coin flip at this moment and center is the premium position in addition to being a position of need for Montreal, I'd still be very surprised if they took Slaf.
imMagnum
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I remember us joking that Slaf was playing too well during the WC. Needed him to stop making plays so he could last until #2.
Nico/Nolan was the only year it was similarly close. Definitely felt the Devils was always leaning Nico to me though. I don’t really know what to make of the Habs other than Wright making more sense. Maybe they like Slaf more and trade for a center though
boy did the Habs ever royally f*** up 2018. I know it’s a new GM now but you gotta wonder if Hughes is afraid of making the same mistake. Doesn’t mean they won’t do it, though.
That's interesting, in each instance there, the team that reached was wrong. Stutzle looks like a better pick than Byfield (fully agree that could change), Tkachcuk over Kotkaniemi, Byram over Dach, too early to see on McTavish and Edvinsson. What this does tell me is that teams will reach a bit for a player they see as a center over an arguably better winger or defender. Small sample size of course but we've heard many sources suggest that center is a premium position in the draft.
Most years a top guy would have emerged by now, so it's not necessarily guaranteed. Bob/TSN had Eric Staal #1 in 2003 and he went 2nd. Only years where it was a toss up was 2017. If Vegas had pulled off three way trade with us and Dallas, they would have taken Nolan Patrick #1.
Bob was still editor-in-chief at The Hockey News when they had Pavel Brendl #1 in 1999. Brendl would have gone first had Vancouver not gotten antsy about getting both Sedins. But that was another year without a consensus #1.
if habs do draft Slafkovsky, any chance you guys go after Jiricek or Nemec instead of Wright?
Realllly curious what happens if Habs take Slaf.
Can’t wait to see. But hope you guys get Slaf.
Can’t wait to see. But hope you guys get Slaf.
Now i’m thinking about it more and it’s hilarious for TSN to put Slafkovsky over the Canadian center that the Habs have been looking for roughly 50 years. I feel bad for whoever they take, tbh. It’s gonna be one of the most scrutinized picks i can think of. Devils and Coyotes are just (un)happy to be there.
I think there’s no chance of either defensemen going at 2. The upside just doesn’t seem to be there. Maybe the Devils trade down if they really want a D, but they shouldn’t.
I've ranked Brad Lambert #17 overall, but I wouldn't say it's necessarily a ranking I'm comfortable with. Lambert is clearly a player who can make you look stupid in either direction. His combination of skating/puck skills are tops in the entire 2022 class, which is why he was in most pre-season top 3 lists. However, his compete level and 200-foot play couldn't be described as my normal "below average" or "needs work". They're just poor. He's 100% a perimeter player. He's proven to be a pretty fickle teammate, willing to jump ship in the face of adversity.
To be honest, I don't think I'd draft Lambert at all. I mean, if he fell to #37 overall? Then sure, but I don't think we're going to have another Kaliyev-situation in the 2022 class with anything but Russians. Still, Lambert has to be considered a wild card -- he could go as high as #6, but he could also fall into the mid-20s.
As far as Scouching goes, I don't like to put him down, because I like the fact he has a unique take on things, and he certainly puts the work in. He's a favorite of the stats people along with Byron Bader, but Scouching is 1000 times better than Bader because he actually researches and watches prospects. Bader wouldn't know Slafkovsky from Savoie if he were standing in an elevator with the two of them. Scouching's video scouting is worth watching even when I disagree with him, because he formulates his opinions from research and diligence.
Ultimately, Scouching's rankings fail because he leaves out multiple important hockey characteristics in his analyses. You can't completely discount physicality, compete level, shooting and defensive play and base your entire algorithm on play with the puck and the possession game, but to some level this is where Scouching perennially falls short of guys like Robinson, Kournianos and Pronman.
Hopefully not. Be a waste of a #2 pick when there's a consensus top 3 and the two remaining guys are both centers, which are in high demand. I want them to pick Wright or Slaf - if they do go RD, then they better trade down.
Columbus shocked many, including myself, when they took Dubois over Puljujarvi in 2016 but they've been proven 'correct' thus far. Draisaitl was seen as a "reach" to some. Just going back a few more years:
2016:
Bob/TSN: Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk, Dubois
Actual: Matthews, Laine, Dubois, Puljujarvi, Juolevi
The top of the board nearly went a much different direction. Near 3 way trade between Columbus, Edmonton, and Calgary to shuffle picks. Columbus would have still gotten Dubois at #4, Edmonton was targeting Sergachev at #6, and presumably Calgary would have taken Puljujarvi at #3. But Edmonton got cold feet.
2015:
Bob/TSN: McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Marner, Strome
Actual: McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner, Hanifin
Could have a little different as Arizona was asking about Dougie Hamilton from Boston. Bruins asked for the #3 pick which they would have used on hometown kid Hanifin. Arizona offered 2016 1st instead, Boston instead took 2015 picks from Calgary.
2014:
Bob/TSN: Ekblad, Reinhart, Bennett, Draisaitl, Dal Colle
Actual: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett, Dal Colle
2013:
Bob/TSN: MacKinnon, Jones, Drouin, Barkov, Lindholm
Actual: MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Jones, Lindholm
2012:
Bob/TSN: Yakupov, Murray, Forsberg, Reinhart, Galchenyuk
Actual: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk, Reinhart, Rielly
Goofy year for sure with Galcheyuk, Rielly, and Koekkoek missing most of the season due to injury but still landing in the top 10. Allegedly Edmonton's scouts wanted Ryan Murray but the owner vetoed and made them take the "consensus" #1.
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