Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[Japam]

Oof with so much uncertainty the Devils should just trade the pick for an established player. At this point they'll probably just f*** the pick up anyway...

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yeah, but in most years there is a clear cut #1 player.

As the article also says:

One, if you were to survey another group of 10 scouts, you could very well end up with the same 5-4 split, but in favour of Wright. It’s really that tight in the eyes of so many scouts.

Two, this “consensus” ranking has nothing to do with the preference of the team — the Montreal Canadiens — that is picking first overall. Club order of draft selection is not a factor in our survey of scouts and TSN’s ranking of players.

Given that it's basically a coin flip at this moment and center is the premium position in addition to being a position of need for Montreal, I'd still be very surprised if they took Slaf.

I've been saying it for some time now, but Wright and Slafkovsky are a clear-cut top 2 in this draft and they are in a separate tier from everyone else. How you order them? Well, I think the scouts and I agree it's pretty much a coin flip.

I write a lot on the draft threads, and to be honest I feel McKenzie's rankings were pretty vindicating for me. I had Gauthier as a top 7 pick long before the consensus, along with Kasper as a top 10 pick, Kulich as a top 20 pick, Rinzel, Schaefer & Beck as borderline 1st rounders. Maybe these scouts have been reading the HFBoards Devils draft pages.

Nico/Nolan was the only year it was similarly close. Definitely felt the Devils was always leaning Nico to me though. I don’t really know what to make of the Habs other than Wright making more sense. Maybe they like Slaf more and trade for a center though

Yeah, I've been saying this is the closest #1 race since Dahlin/Svechnikov, but Nico/Nolan was also close. Last year was also at least a discussion at the top, though Power was the guy. 2020 was Lafreniere by a good distance and 2019 was Jack Hughes by a country mile.

 

[Guadana]

Slafkovsky over Wright, Gauthier in top-5, what are you talk about, Guadana?.. oh.. wait. it’s a McKenzie…

 

[My3Sons]

Columbus shocked many, including myself, when they took Dubois over Puljujarvi in 2016 but they've been proven 'correct' thus far. Draisaitl was seen as a "reach" to some. Just going back a few more years:

2016:
Bob/TSN: Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk, Dubois
Actual: Matthews, Laine, Dubois, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk

2015:
Bob/TSN: McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Marner, Strome
Actual: McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner, Hanifin

2014:
Bob/TSN: Ekblad, Reinhart, Bennett, Draisaitl, Dal Colle
Actual: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett, Dal Colle

2013:
Bob/TSN: MacKinnon, Jones, Drouin, Barkov, Lindholm
Actual: MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Jones, Lindholm

2012:
Bob/TSN: Yakupov, Murray, Forsberg, Reinhart, Galchenyuk
Actual: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk, Reinhart, Rielly

2012: Woof

 

[ninetyeight]

To be honest, I don't think I'd draft Lambert at all. I mean, if he fell to #37 overall? Then sure,

Yikes. I think it might be a bit hard to get a real grasp of his game and skills based on his Liiga performances as he doesn't really look comfortable playing there for whatever reason.

I know it's a bit of a while ago, but have you seen his play in HIFK juniors (u20) or his WJC performances. The competition is obviously alot weaker, but he looks like a completely different player out there. I don't know if it's a confidence or physicality thing, but I think he just needs more time to mature, to do what he does playing against men. I'm fairly confident he's gonna be a great player and if he plays in the u20 it won't take longer than that to make people wonder how he dropped so low.

 

[BenchBrawl]

boy did the Habs ever royally f*** up 2018. I know it’s a new GM now but you gotta wonder if Hughes is afraid of making the same mistake. Doesn’t mean they won’t do it, though.

Trevor Timmins is so bad at drafting forwards he'd have taken Kirk Muller in 1984 over Mario Lemieux because the former had more "compete". It's well known Timmins couldn't draft a forward to save his life, although he miraculously picked Caufield before getting out.

He was very good at drafting defensemen, however.

 

[HBK27]

I've ranked Brad Lambert #17 overall, but I wouldn't say it's necessarily a ranking I'm comfortable with. Lambert is clearly a player who can make you look stupid in either direction. His combination of skating/puck skills are tops in the entire 2022 class, which is why he was in most pre-season top 3 lists. However, his compete level and 200-foot play couldn't be described as my normal "below average" or "needs work". They're just poor. He's 100% a perimeter player. He's proven to be a pretty fickle teammate, willing to jump ship in the face of adversity.

To be honest, I don't think I'd draft Lambert at all. I mean, if he fell to #37 overall? Then sure, but I don't think we're going to have another Kaliyev-situation in the 2022 class with anything but Russians. Still, Lambert has to be considered a wild card -- he could go as high as #6, but he could also fall into the mid-20s.

As far as Scouching goes, I don't like to put him down, because I like the fact he has a unique take on things, and he certainly puts the work in. He's a favorite of the stats people along with Byron Bader, but Scouching is 1000 times better than Bader because he actually researches and watches prospects. Bader wouldn't know Slafkovsky from Savoie if he were standing in an elevator with the two of them. Scouching's video scouting is worth watching even when I disagree with him, because he formulates his opinions from research and diligence.

Ultimately, Scouching's rankings fail because he leaves out multiple important hockey characteristics in his analyses. You can't completely discount physicality, compete level, shooting and defensive play and base your entire algorithm on play with the puck and the possession game, but to some level this is where Scouching perennially falls short of guys like Robinson, Kournianos and Pronman.

Hoping the Devils pick a few Russians if they do start falling.

Interestingly, it doesn't look like we drafted any Russians from 2007-2015, but have drafted at least one almost every year since (except 2018, though Sharangovich was playing in Russia), with relatively good success relative to draft position:

2016: Maltsev (4th round), Rykov (5th)
2017: Popugaev (4th), Zaitsev (7th)
2019: Okhotyuk (2nd), Misyul (3rd), Gritsyuk (5th)
2020: Mukhamadullin (1st)
2021: Bardakov (7th)

Only really bad pick was Big Poppy, though the board was ecstatic to get him in the 4th round at the time.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Now i’m thinking about it more and it’s hilarious for TSN to put Slafkovsky over the Canadian center that the Habs have been looking for roughly 50 years. I feel bad for whoever they take, tbh. It’s gonna be one of the most scrutinized picks i can think of. Devils and Coyotes are just (un)happy to be there.


I think there’s no chance of either defensemen going at 2. The upside just doesn’t seem to be there. Maybe the Devils trade down if they really want a D, but they shouldn’t.

Yes... and no. Looking at comments from both the English and French sides, everyone knows there's no superstar in this draft. Montreal fanbase is sophisticated enough to understand that.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's interesting, in each instance there, the team that reached was wrong. Stutzle looks like a better pick than Byfield (fully agree that could change), Tkachcuk over Kotkaniemi, Byram over Dach, too early to see on McTavish and Edvinsson. What this does tell me is that teams will reach a bit for a player they see as a center over an arguably better winger or defender. Small sample size of course but we've heard many sources suggest that center is a premium position in the draft.

Here's another way of looking at it:

2012
McKenzie: Yakupov/Murray/Forsberg
Actual: Yakupov/Murray/Galchenyuk
Re-Draft: Slavin/Parayko/Forsberg

2013
McKenzie: MacKinnon/Jones/Drouin
Actual: MacKinnon/Barkov/Drouin
Re-Draft: MacKinnon/Barkov/Lindholm

2014
McKenzie: Ekblad/Reinhart/Bennett
Actual: Ekblad/Reinhart/Draisaitl
Re-Draft: Draisaitl/Point/Pastrnak

2015
McKenzie: McDavid/Eichel/Hanifin
Actual: McDavid/Eichel/Strome
Re-Draft: McDavid/Marner/Eichel or Rantanen

2016
McKenzie: Matthews/Laine/Puljujarvi
Actual: Matthews/Laine/Dubois
Re-Draft: Matthews/Tkachuk/McAvoy

2017
McKenzie: Hischier/Patrick/Heiskanen
Actual: Hischier/Patrick/Heiskanen
Re-Draft: Makar/Heiskanen/Hischier

2018
McKenzie: Dahlin/Svechnikov/Tkachuk
Actual: Dahlin/Svechnikov/Kotkaniemi
Re-Draft: Svechnikov/Dahlin/Hughes

2019
McKenzie: Hughes/Kakko/Byram
Actual: Hughes/Kakko/Dach
Re-Draft: Hughes/Seider/Zegras

2020
McKenzie: Lafreniere/Stutzle/Byfield
Actual: Lafreniere/Byfield/Stutzle
Re-Draft: Stutzle/Sanderson/Raymond

2021
McKenzie: Power/Beniers/Edvinsson
Actual: Power/Beniers/McTavish
Re-Draft: Power/Hughes/Beniers

Overall, I'd say McKenzie has done very well, especially since 2015. The teams have also mostly done well in the top 3, aside from a few very dumb off-the-board picks to reach for big centers -- notably Kotkaniemi, Strome and Dach.

 

[StevenToddIves]

if habs do draft Slafkovsky, any chance you guys go after Jiricek or Nemec instead of Wright?

Not unless it's a trade down scenario. I think the Devils would possibly go down as far as #6, where they could target one of Jiricek, Nemec and Gauthier.

Now i’m thinking about it more and it’s hilarious for TSN to put Slafkovsky over the Canadian center that the Habs have been looking for roughly 50 years. I feel bad for whoever they take, tbh. It’s gonna be one of the most scrutinized picks i can think of. Devils and Coyotes are just (un)happy to be there.


I think there’s no chance of either defensemen going at 2. The upside just doesn’t seem to be there. Maybe the Devils trade down if they really want a D, but they shouldn’t.

The upside is there with Jiricek, but the certainty is there with Nemec.

 

[Taluss]

Oof with so much uncertainty the Devils should just trade the pick for an established player. At this point they'll probably just f*** the pick up anyway...

Would you guys be interested in a deal around Debrincat if Habs take Slaf?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Slafkovsky over Wright, Gauthier in top-5, what are you talk about, Guadana?.. oh.. wait. it’s a McKenzie…

We seem to have done very, very well this year on the HF Boards Devils draft pages. Also note the rankings for guys like Kulich, Schaefer, Rinzel and Beck. Sykora got a nice big bump too.

I will add that McKenzie's scouts really dropped the ball on the MHL kids, especially Perevalov and Trikozov. Hopefully they'll be available with the Devils #37 pick. Man, if we came away from this draft with Slafkovsky and Perevalov it would be insane.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Hoping the Devils pick a few Russians if they do start falling.

Interestingly, it doesn't look like we drafted any Russians from 2007-2015, but have drafted at least one almost every year since (except 2018, though Sharangovich was playing in Russia), with relatively good success relative to draft position:

2016: Maltsev (4th round), Rykov (5th)
2017: Popugaev (4th), Zaitsev (7th)
2019: Okhotyuk (2nd), Misyul (3rd), Gritsyuk (5th)
2020: Mukhamadullin (1st)
2021: Bardakov (7th)

Only really bad pick was Big Poppy, though the board was ecstatic to get him in the 4th round at the time.

The Devils Russian scouting has been outstanding in the recent era. I've been keying on several MHL studs like Perevalov, Trikozov and Neuchev as well as some extraordinarily good MHL sleepers like Koromyslov, Dolzhenkov, Barabosha, Pelevin, Duda and Orlov.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Oof with so much uncertainty the Devils should just trade the pick for an established player. At this point they'll probably just f*** the pick up anyway...

That's actually the opposite of what the Devils should be doing, and the opposite of what the Devils have recently done with early picks.

Last year the Devils picked Luke Hughes #4, and in a re-draft Hughes is in the conversation with Power for #1 overall. In 2020, the Devils picked Holtz at #7 and Mercer at #18 -- in a re-draft Holtz likely falls to the #12-#15 range, but Mercer moves up into the top 10 so it's still a very good job by the Devils scouting. In 2019, the Devils took Jack Hughes #1 which was an easy pick, but Hughes will likely stand as the best #1 overall pick between Matthews and Bedard. In 2018, the Devils did admittedly meh with Ty Smith at #17, but in 2017 the Devils certainly made the right call between Hischier and Patrick.

The Devils won't be making a wrong choice, because quite frankly they're not making a choice between Slafkovsky and Wright -- Montreal will make the choice between those two players at #1, and then the Devils will take whichever of the top tier 2022 draftees falls to them at #2.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Would you guys be interested in a deal around Debrincat if Habs take Slaf?

No. We can either trade for Fiala for much less or sign Gaudreau for just cap space and have the best center depth in the league. If the Devils draft Wright, this is a plausible line-up for the near future.

Gaudreau Hughes Mercer
Bratt Nico Sharongovich
Boqvist/Foot Wright Holtz
Zetterlund McLeod Bastian/Wood

Hughes Hamilton
Siegenthaler Severson
Muk/Ohytuyk/Bahl [slightly above average RHD/maybe Case McCarthy down the road]

league average goaltending

This is a perennial cup contender, and doesn't even take into account how good Gritsyuk might end up being.

 

[My3Sons]

No. We can either trade for Fiala for much less or sign Gaudreau for just cap space and have the best center depth in the league. If the Devils draft Wright, this is a plausible line-up for the near future.

Gaudreau Hughes Mercer
Bratt Nico Sharongovich
Boqvist/Foot Wright Holtz
Zetterlund McLeod Bastian/Wood

Hughes Hamilton
Siegenthaler Severson
Muk/Ohytuyk/Bahl [slightly above average RHD/maybe Case McCarthy down the road]

league average goaltending

This is a perennial cup contender, and doesn't even take into account how good Gritsyuk might end up being.

How is NJ going to get League Average Goaltending from his current team and why are you using his full name compared to the other players listed?

 

[Japam]

That's actually the opposite of what the Devils should be doing, and the opposite of what the Devils have recently done with early picks.

Last year the Devils picked Luke Hughes #4, and in a re-draft Hughes is in the conversation with Power for #1 overall. In 2020, the Devils picked Holtz at #7 and Mercer at #18 -- in a re-draft Holtz likely falls to the #12-#15 range, but Mercer moves up into the top 10 so it's still a very good job by the Devils scouting. In 2019, the Devils took Jack Hughes #1 which was an easy pick, but Hughes will likely stand as the best #1 overall pick between Matthews and Bedard. In 2018, the Devils did admittedly meh with Ty Smith at #17, but in 2017 the Devils certainly made the right call between Hischier and Patrick.

The Devils won't be making a wrong choice, because quite frankly they're not making a choice between Slafkovsky and Wright -- Montreal will make the choice between those two players at #1, and then the Devils will take whichever of the top tier 2022 draftees falls to them at #2.

I'm usually only half serious with most of my posts but I really want to know from you, because i legit respect and trust your analysis and opinions, now that the finals are over - who is your 'no outside influence, ignore all concensus opinions' best player in the draft. Who is your Makar?

 

[Stephen Gionta]

this is wild. we’re coming out of this winners either way.

That's what Philly thought in 2017.

 

[Guadana]

We seem to have done very, very well this year on the HF Boards Devils draft pages. Also note the rankings for guys like Kulich, Schaefer, Rinzel and Beck. Sykora got a nice big bump too.

I will add that McKenzie's scouts really dropped the ball on the MHL kids, especially Perevalov and Trikozov. Hopefully they'll be available with the Devils #37 pick. Man, if we came away from this draft with Slafkovsky and Perevalov it would be insane.

I did trust you with the guys like Rinzel and Beck after I did understand we have no chance on playoff. Especially Rinzel, because of his first impression on me. But I spent some time with Sykora and Kulich. And I would say I’m with you with Sykora, and not as high on Kulich.

He did talk with scouts. It’s really is the thing what it is. Some could specifically love some specific guy and draft this specific guy higher, but now we can talk about consensus. This is literally how scouts consensus is look like. And I understand scouts who can’t put Russian guys in top spots. Because we know why.

I don’t interesting in Shane Wright. I believe he is a potential good top six player, I just want something different. Fitz should trade pick with Columbus and draft one of Gauthier/Nemec/Jiricek. One of them plus Yurov/Chesle/Kasper/Snuggerud with Perevalov/Trikozov/Sykora would be awesome. And Warren if we could trade for late second.

And yeah, year after year we did great job. In 2020 we did awesome job and talk a lot about different guys. Disputes about germans, defensemen and about top 10 were awesome. 2021 was more controversial. And I wasnt involved outside of defensemen. Now we had a very good year, situation did hurt my predraft work outside of potential top 20. But it was enough for the devils perspective. At least I did make some feedback for you for early picks.

And now look at list of McKenzie. We should smoke cigars now. you should make recourse, man. your job is a pure gold.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm usually only half serious with most of my posts but I really want to know from you, because i legit respect and trust your analysis and opinions, now that the finals are over - who is your 'no outside influence, ignore all concensus opinions' best player in the draft. Who is your Makar?

Wright and Slafkovsky are my top 2, and all my rankings can be found here: Prospect Info: - 2022 Draft Final STI Rankings -- Top 120

If the question is who is my dark horse to be best player in the 2022 draft? Well -- that's actually a terrific question. I'd have to say that Alexander Perevalov has a shot to be the Pastrnak of the 2022 class. We also can't count out Ivan Miroshnichenko, whose bout with Hodgkin's disease cost him a likely top 3 slot and certainly possesses superstar potential at the highest levels.

I'll even give you an all-star team of players who could wind up being the best at their position and are not likely top 10 picks:

C Jiri Kulich
LW Ivan Miroshnichenko
RW Alexander Perevalov
LD Denton Mateychuk
RD Sam Rinzel

 

[Taluss]

No. We can either trade for Fiala for much less or sign Gaudreau for just cap space and have the best center depth in the league. If the Devils draft Wright, this is a plausible line-up for the near future.

Gaudreau Hughes Mercer
Bratt Nico Sharongovich
Boqvist/Foot Wright Holtz
Zetterlund McLeod Bastian/Wood

Hughes Hamilton
Siegenthaler Severson
Muk/Ohytuyk/Bahl [slightly above average RHD/maybe Case McCarthy down the road]

league average goaltending

This is a perennial cup contender, and doesn't even take into account how good Gritsyuk might end up being.

Definitely sounds like a very solid team moving forward, but you wouldn’t be worried someone outbids for Fiala or Gaudreau? Both are definitely possible

And another thought . If Wright hits his potential I don’t think he’d be satisfied at 3 C or the AAV it would take to keep him after his elc and have him at 3c.

Can Nico or Jack move to wing if that potentially happens?

 

[Rhodes 81]

I'm still wondering where the questions about Slafkovsky's upside are coming from. He's got the best combination of playmaking/puckhandling in the entire 2022 draft. His skating and shot are superb. He excels both in space and down low, in the exterior and interior. He's smart as hell and competitive. His development curve for his draft-eligible campaign was second to none -- do we somehow assume it's going to suddenly and jarringly level off?

Where is the concern over lack of upside? We literally haven't had a draft-eligible forward remotely like him for maybe a decade. Where is the concern he could bust? He just came off a tournament with 120 NHLers and was one of the best forwards in the entire tourney.

For someone like myself, who is a believer in an analytical and process-oriented approach to talent evaluation, the peaks and valleys of his season in different competitions make him a less clean projection than I would prefer at #1 or 2 overall, but that's where I lean on the writers I have grown to trust that have the capacity to watch more tape than I can devote to hockey prospects, such as Pronman, Wheeler, and yourself.

I will say that from what I've seen his shot is "just" above average for the NHL and that might hold him back as far as being a consistent 40 goal threat. But then again if he had an elite shot we would probably be talking about him as a Kovalchuk or Stamkos level prospect. I keep saying I wouldn't be surprised if Cooley ends up the best offensive player, but I also wouldn't be surprised if that's Slafkovsky. Concerns about his floor or ceiling are unwarranted unless you're of the mind that anything less than a 100pt player is a disappointment.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Definitely sounds like a very solid team moving forward, but you wouldn’t be worried someone outbids for Fiala or Gaudreau? Both are definitely possible

And another thought . If Wright hits his potential I don’t think he’d be satisfied at 3 C or the AAV it would take to keep him after his elc and have him at 3c.

Can Nico or Jack move to wing if that potentially happens?

I'd rather get outbid for Fiala or Gaudreau than outbid everyone else for Debrincat. I also think that if the Devils want Gaudreau, he's coming here. Despite the home town connections, I can't see hm being at all enticed to join the dumpster fire that the Flyers are already and which only going to get worse. After that, if he doesn't want to stay in Calgary, I don't know who else has the means to sign him, maybe the Isles, but I think they'll be all in on Forsberg.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's what Philly thought in 2017.

From 2010-2020, there have been three players taken in the top 2 whom I feel we can say were just not good at all in the NHL. Two were in the very weak 2012 draft -- Yakupov and Murray. And then Patrick in 2017.

Good players taken top 2 since 2010):
Nugent-Hopkins, Reinhart, Laine, Hischier

Great players taken top 2 since 2010:
Hall, Seguin, Landeskog, Ekblad, Eichel,

Slam Dunk Hall of Famers taken top 2 since 2010:
MacKinnon, Barkov, McDavid, Matthews

Likely Superstars taken top 2 since 2010:
Dahlin, Svechnikov, Hughes

Jury Still Out:
Kakko, Lafreniere, Byfield, Power, Beniers

So, removing the players for whom the jury is still out -- we have 19 players taken top 2 since 2010. 3 were not good players, and 4 were surefire future Hall-of-Famers. So you have better odds of taking a Hall of Fame-caliber player than a bust.

But even removing those extremes, 16 of the 19 picks were at least good NHLers. So, cheer up!

I did trust you with the guys like Rinzel and Beck after I did understand we have no chance on playoff. Especially Rinzel, because of his first impression on me. But I spent some time with Sykora and Kulich. And I would say I’m with you with Sykora, and not as high on Kulich.

He did talk with scouts. It’s really is the thing what it is. Some could specifically love some specific guy and draft this specific guy higher, but now we can talk about consensus. This is literally how scouts consensus is look like. And I understand scouts who can’t put Russian guys in top spots. Because we know why.

I don’t interesting in Shane Wright. I believe he is a potential good top six player, I just want something different. Fitz should trade pick with Columbus and draft one of Gauthier/Nemec/Jiricek. One of them plus Yurov/Chesle/Kasper/Snuggerud with Perevalov/Trikozov/Sykora would be awesome. And Warren if we could trade for late second.

And yeah, year after year we did great job. In 2020 we did awesome job and talk a lot about different guys. Disputes about germans, defensemen and about top 10 were awesome. 2021 was more controversial. And I wasnt involved outside of defensemen. Now we had a very good year, situation did hurt my predraft work outside of potential top 20. But it was enough for the devils perspective. At least I did make some feedback for you for early picks.

And now look at list of McKenzie. We should smoke cigars now. you should make recourse, man. your job is a pure gold.

Break out the cigars, tovarisch!

 

[Capt Nico Poo]

That's what Philly thought in 2017.

And Rags with Kakko