Speculation: Coyotes 2021 Offseason Roster Discussion Thread #2

[Grimes]

I mostly agree. I might prefer to lose Pitlick. I prefer his style but he's injury prone and older than Fischer. A new coach might be able to get Fischer back on track.

One other name I was thinking about today as far as UFAs is Tyler Bozak. He's 35 now but we need centres. STL familiarity too. Dvorak, Bozak, Larsson as our 2-3-4 down the middle is decent.

Why wouldn't Seattle take Larsson though? I hate it but I think we need to start making rosters without him in it. I'd be happy if Pitlick was the one taken because those players can be replace, even though we need more players like him not less. DeBrusk for instance would slot right into that role if he was part of an OEL trade.

Taking Myers AND Loui Eriksson is a huge nope from me

Same. Unless...

VAN
OEL
Garland

ARI
Podkolzin
Juolevi
Motte
Myers
Eriksson

XX brought up the good point that teams need their entry level contracts in order to manage cap correctly when I brought up someone like Garland for Newhook/McMichael. However, Vancouver is a quite a bit behind teams like CO and Washington. If anything this is a time period to take a stab at adding youngish players that are owed a little more, while Pettersson, Boeser, Hughes, and Hoglander are on their entry level contracts or first RFA. Boeser is due for a new contract next year, Horvat in the 23-24 season, while Pettersson and Hugues are due for a new RFA contract. They probably can do a bridge deal for Hughes and Pettersson or maybe even something similar to our Schmaltz and Chychrun contracts where there is some term and some money but not going into the 10m x 8yr type contract yet. 4yr x 6m something like that. That allows you to add someone like Garland around that 5m range and have their core signed to a decent rate for the next couple years.

The emergence of Hoglander makes it easier to move Podkolzin. Last season they didn't know what they had in him. Adding Garland allows them to add a bonafide top 6 winger who is in the age range of their core (three years older than Pettersson/Hughes, and right in-between Horvat and Boeser) and will make about 2-3m less than an equivalent player acquired in free agency. I could stomach adding both Myers and Eriksson's cap if we get a more proven prospect than the 9th in this crapshoot of a draft.

 

[rt]

VERY interesting @Grimes

 

[rt]

Taking Myers AND Loui Eriksson is a huge nope from me

We can actually use Myers. Eriksson might be willing to tear up his contract and go to Sweden once his SB is paid. He can likely make up the difference at home.

 

[lanky]

Personally, I like 9 OA better than Podkolzin.

Also, I'm not crazy about having Lyubushkin and Myers both in the lineup as neither one is any good at moving the puck.

 

[Grimes]

Personally, I like 9 OA better than Podkolzin.

Also, I'm not crazy about having Lyubushkin and Myers both in the lineup as neither one is any good at moving the puck.

Podkolzin is closer to what is quickly becoming our newer core of Chychrun, Keller, Hayton, Jenik and the likes. Also feels very much like a BA player. Seems he has been a little up and down since his draft year so I get it, but feels more secure than an absolute dart throw at 9 this season.
2019 - Zegras
2018 - Kravtsov
2017 - Rasmussen (surrounded by Tippett and Mittelstadt)
2016 - Sergachev (surrounded by Jost and Nylander)

2019 is looking like perhaps the best draft since 2015 (excluding 2020). Podkolzin was going as high as #3 in some mocks that year. I get that he isn't a slam dunk but he does fit in our newer time table a little bit better.
This also makes me feel things:
Jenik-Hayton-Podkolzin

 

[rt]

I love Podkolzin so much it would help take away the pain of losing Garland. Podkolzin is a robot who’s only programmed to go to the net. He can’t help himself. It’s in his DNA. He’s genetically predisposed. He’s addicted to going to the net. He can’t get enough. There’s nothing I love more in a winger.

 

[lanky]

Podkolzin is closer to what is quickly becoming our newer core of Chychrun, Keller, Hayton, Jenik and the likes. Also feels very much like a BA player. Seems he has been a little up and down since his draft year so I get it, but feels more secure than an absolute dart throw at 9 this season.
2019 - Zegras
2018 - Kravtsov
2017 - Rasmussen (surrounded by Tippett and Mittelstadt)
2016 - Sergachev (surrounded by Jost and Nylander)

2019 is looking like perhaps the best draft since 2015 (excluding 2020). Podkolzin was going as high as #3 in some mocks that year. I get that he isn't a slam dunk but he does fit in our newer time table a little bit better.
This also makes me feel things:
Jenik-Hayton-Podkolzin

1 or 2 of Guenther, McTavish and Sillinger will be available and they all seem like players that Bill would value. I like each of them better than Podkolzin. I like Podkolzin better than Kravtsov and Rasmussen. It was clear when those two were picked that they were risky picks and I wouldn't have considered either of them. I appreciate the point you were making though by listing recent 9 OAs. It does add perspective.

 

[Grimes]

1 or 2 of Guenther, McTavish and Sillinger will be available and they all seem like players that Bill would value. I like each of them better than Podkolzin. I like Podkolzin better than Kravtsov and Rasmussen. It was clear when those two were picked that they were risky picks and I wouldn't have considered either of them. I appreciate the point you were making though by listing recent 9 OAs. It does add perspective.

And don't get me wrong, I'd love to add Guenther or McTavish. I'm not convinced Guenther will be available at 9, which drops the value of the pick significantly for me. I do prioritize the fact that Sillinger and McTavish play center but again I love that Podkolzin slides right into that second batch of prospects we have age wise. Maybe I'm putting too much weight on that, or maybe I'm higher on our 2nd's than I should be since this draft feels like a guy selected at 38 could easily be better than someone at 15.

 

[rt]

Id probably rather have Podkolzin than 4th overall.

 

[Kaizen]

I don't disagree. Trading the one guy that came up through your org, put in the time, and consistently competes sends a bad message. But if someone comes along and blows you away with an offer, it's the right time to cash in. There is no 'core'. Three 25+ year old dudes who can't even make the playoffs and are all probably 2nd liners at best isn't a core.

It's Chychrun vs the world. What happens if he gets tired of losing?

I think BA is going to rebuild in slow motion by cashing in on good deals and then getting the culture right. It was clearly trash under Tocchet. We haven't seen hockey that inconsistent and gutless in awhile. It starts with new leaders and new coaches. Garland might end up being a casualty of past mistakes.

For good or for bad it looks like this is going to be the way it plays out.

 

[0point1]

Garland for 9th overall as a base seems like the kind of thing that would interest BA. I don't have any interest in it personally, but I bet BA would.

If I had the 9th overall pick and I could get Garland with it I would do it in an instant.

 

[Heldig]

If I had the 9th overall pick and I could get Garland with it I would do it in an instant.

this draft is so hard to evaluate.

 

[Sinurgy]

That's a fair statement, but anyone could argue that if Marner was taken at #2 and produced the same stat lines that he has, he could also be named as a "generational player."

Same could be said if any team went off the board and took Rantanen at #2.

While it was the rare year that two (and more) top talents were available, that does not guarantee that the one player makes everyone else an impact player as well. Buffalo has never picked lower than 8th in any draft through 2020 since picking up Eichel at 2. That includes a #1 OA and multiple picks at #7 or #8. That would lend creedence to the idea that because Buffalo has had high picks (the Coyotes picked at #7 twice when Buffalo had #8), they should be improving at a more rapid pace. Yet, they are not. The same premise is what you are arguing. By getting #2 instead of #3, the team should be exponentially better. But only getting one elite player (one could argue that Strome, Marner, or Hanifin would be #1 in any other draft year) does not necessarily guarantee the issues of a team get solved.

Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but the 3rd, 30th, and 32nd best available selections may be more valuable than the #2, #32, and some other random pick because we didn't ask for the best possible picks to attempt to fill needs. There are tiers of prospects, and if yoy wind up trading the players for less than their value, you may miss out on certain tiers that can help your team. A #2 pick vs #3 may not make up for that tier difference.

The better strategy overall should be that if Maloney took a vision that because we were a team that could not compete dollar for dollar on free agents, we need to have the best scouting department around so that we don't make the mistake
on passing up certain players who were more susceptible for long careers at high levels. One could argue we took the bird in hand approach by declaring that we need a #1 C and overlooking Marner or Hanifin, so damage can be done in the same way with that approach, too.

Yeah you don't get to shrug that off like it's not a crucial fact. That's arguably the point, it's pretty rare that you end up with 2 can't miss prospects, both centers to boot. Players that are virtual locks to be PPG. That's a big f***ing deal on it's own, now combine it with the fact it was also at a time where the last place team was absolutely, 100% guaranteed to get one of them. It was foolish to gamble that away. Now I don't believe DM was dumb enough to think maximizing some late 1st round/early second round picks was worth losing a can't miss PPG center prospect, I just think he underestimated Tippets ability to squeeze blood from stone and win some games in March when it didn't matter and it still haunts us today. So yeah...DM f***ed up the tank, it's a pretty open and shut case man.

 

[rt]

Yeah you don't get to shrug that off like it's not a crucial fact. That's arguably the point, it's pretty rare that you end up with 2 can't miss prospects, both centers to boot. Players that are virtual locks to be PPG. That's a big f***ing deal on it's own, now combine it with the fact it was also at a time where the last place team was absolutely, 100% guaranteed to get one of them. It was foolish to gamble that away. Now I don't believe DM was dumb enough to think maximizing some late 1st round/early second round picks was worth losing a can't miss PPG center prospect, I just think he underestimated Tippets ability to squeeze blood from stone and win some games in March when it didn't matter and it still haunts us today. So yeah...DM f***ed up the tank, it's a pretty open and shut case man.

Maloney's tank effort was epic. It was conspicuous and memorable. It's still talked about today. You're suggesting something that nobody has ever done. Something entirely novel. Teams don't just start tanking hard months before the deadline. It's not done. Don Maloney is a lot of things, but an industry disrupting maverick visionary he is not. What Arizona and Buffalo did was seen then, and remembered now as appallingly egregious. There was no self-respecting GM in the league at that time or at any time in recent history that would have been willing to do more.

If you told a group of NHL execs that the problem with the Coyotes is that Don Maloney didn't tank hard enough in 2015, you'd be laughed out of the room. Tanking harder would have drawn more than ire from the league. Possibly action. I'm sure he was hearing about it from colleagues and superiors alike.

 

[Sinurgy]

Never been to Arizona in Winter, done it a few times in Summer.

You're doing it wrong!

 

[Perratrooper]

Just out of curiosity, what would the cost of Crouse to Colorado be?

 

[Sinurgy]

Maloney's tank effort was epic. It was conspicuous and memorable. It's still talked about today. You're suggesting something that nobody has ever done. Something entirely novel. Teams don't just start tanking hard months before the deadline. It's not done. Don Maloney is a lot of things, but an industry disrupting maverick visionary he is not. What Arizona and Buffalo did was seen then, and remembered now as appallingly egregious. There was no self-respecting GM in the league at that time or at any time in recent history that would have been willing to do more.

If you told a group of NHL execs that the problem with the Coyotes is that Don Maloney didn't tank hard enough in 2015, you'd be laughed out of the room. Tanking harder would have drawn more than ire from the league. Possibly action. I'm sure he was hearing about it from colleagues and superiors alike.

Yes I'm sure trading Z or Vermette in January would've set off all kinds of alarms. What a crazy, out of the box notion I'm floating. Just pure lateral thinking that would surely get me laughed out of the room I'm apparently hypothetically sharing with a bunch of NHL execs.

On one thing we do agree, DM's tank was definitely epic, it's not easy pulling off the worst of both worlds.

 

[rt]

Yes I'm sure trading Z or Vermette in January would've set off all kinds of alarms. What a crazy, out of the box notion I'm floating. Just pure lateral thinking that would surely get me laughed out of the room I'm apparently hypothetically sharing with a bunch of NHL execs.

On one thing we do agree, DM's tank was definitely epic, it's not easy pulling off the worst of both worlds.

Abandon the practice of maximizing returns? Nah. The thing you are suggesting is just not a thing. Even if I wanted it at the time.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Yeah you don't get to shrug that off like it's not a crucial fact. That's arguably the point, it's pretty rare that you end up with 2 can't miss prospects, both centers to boot. Players that are virtual locks to be PPG. That's a big f***ing deal on it's own, now combine it with the fact it was also at a time where the last place team was absolutely, 100% guaranteed to get one of them. It was foolish to gamble that away. Now I don't believe DM was dumb enough to think maximizing some late 1st round/early second round picks was worth losing a can't miss PPG center prospect, I just think he underestimated Tippets ability to squeeze blood from stone and win some games in March when it didn't matter and it still haunts us today. So yeah...DM f***ed up the tank, it's a pretty open and shut case man.

That doesn't mean that there is a shrug at the context of how good a player can be. The question becomes how big is that gap between Eichel and the next best C, or next best player. There were 3 players that were talked about as being #1 picks any other year, which is also unprecedented and "generational."

If we had traded Vermette for less of a return and gotten to the #2 pick, but only got the #45 pick overall for Vermette, we could have had Eichel and Hintz if our scouts evaluated properly for the 2nd round. The problem with that is we don't even get a chance for Aho, as he is gone well before #45.

Again, speaking in hindsight, but you seem to be suggesting that Eichel and Hintz would be far more preferred than if we had gone Marner at #3 and Aho at #30. While the allure of Eichel is fine, I think we would be further ahead with the latter situation, assuming every player played to their exact totals. We would be talking a difference of .08 ppg between Eichel and Aho, or a single point roughly every 12 games.

If there was a huge gap between Eichel and the next tier (like the 2004 draft, where it was Ovi and Malkin, and then a massive drop-off), you have a much better basis for argument, and I would be more inclined to agree with you. The larger takeaway on that front is if our scouting and front office correctly ascribed to the existence of talent that is just as strong after #2, we have to get one of those players. Marner, Rantanen, Barzal, Aho, and to a lesser extent, Connor and Boeser are right up there and close enough to the level of output to Eichel that tanking was not our only option to get talent. But accepting a lesser return by accelerating a tank could have prevented us from getting another talented player in the back half of the 1st or early 2nd, because the well runs dry fairly quick.

@rt is right - you can't abandon the practice of maximizing returns. For the reasons which I gave, which is you lessen the pool of players that can be had at a helpful tier, as well as once you go that route, you open yourself up to get several other returns at diminished value. You become the GM who everyone tries to cut deals with because you will take back a lesser return. Over the long run, that becomes a -EV play.

 

[Jakey53]

Just out of curiosity, what would the cost of Crouse to Colorado be?

Not much, maybe McKinnon.

 

[Perratrooper]

Not much, maybe McKinnon.

Damn, I was gonna say Makar and MacKinnon, what a bargain!

In all seriousness, what sort of player/prospect/pick(s) would be acceptable?

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

In all seriousness, what sort of player/prospect/pick(s) would be acceptable?

Players like Crouse dont really get traded. He's a modern bottom six player. 6-4 big guy who can skate and keeps going all game. He can get 15 goals and isnt overpaid. He's 24 so fits in well with a young group.

To get him would require some overpayment by offering a better and more valuable player as in a top six player (or clear potential) who has more skill. Cant see that happening when you can just sign a free agent or pretty easily find another similar player who will give you 95% of what Crouse does.

 

[rt]

Since we’re rebuilding the D from scratch, this is mildly interesting

 

[rt]

Which UFAs meet the criteria?

 

[Schemp]

IMO, GMBA will try to build a playoff team next season.
He'll try to hit a home run during free agency, but there ain't much to pick from.
1st though, you have the Kraken to deal with. 7-4-1 vs 4-4-1 may lead to opportunities, directly or indirectly. Seattle will pick 30 contracts, so they will likely trade some. Francis will covet that which is exempt from the expansion draft and nhl-ready prospects that are in a log jam on their current team. GMBA needs to take advantage of these opportunities if he is to make a winning roster.