OT: COVID-19- March 17 2020 - No politics! Read post #1

[thewave]

This website seems to attract a lot of whack jobs and very right wing (more than your regular conservatives) individuals. Kind of off putting honestly

The official Scientific site that the actual papers were on? That or the video on Brighteon? So disregard the actual Doctor and conversation with the other doctors and demonize the place where the video was published?

That's so basic.

 

[ULF_55]

@UL


One of the ongoing online jokes is that nobody knows anybody who has it. They know people who had a cold or whatever but it wasn't terribly bad. Then you have this very small population that is at risk apparently and for that, we can't isolate just them for some reason. We have to dismantle our whole civilization because 80+ year olds on ventilators are on risk? So is this going to be a yearly thing because it goes in waves, do we just destroy Western Civilization altogether?

I may not be the smartest guy in the world, but this seems kinda crazy! When they say 15% could die, OKAY, that's huge but now the numbers are normalizing and the response seems extreme.

AHS has been working on their COVID-19 response since January. Apparently, brought in more equipment and are still projected to be able to handle the extra capacity. They didn't think it was a hoax.

 

[thewave]

AHS has been working on their COVID-19 response since January. Apparently, brought in more equipment and are still projected to be able to handle the extra capacity. They didn't think it was a hoax.

I don't think it's a hoax, I think that if you quarantine the right people you should be able to avoid the real cost of this, the economy and I am way more scared about people losing homes and not being able to eat + the health implications with that, especially in countries with no health care.

The economic distress spread over the world will starve more people to death than this thing will likely kill, I mean that.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Anyone have the latest count of tests done in Ontario.

Last number I read was 23k tests done in Ontario and 20k tests done in Alberta.

Does that look a little bit questionable?

Latest number of tests in the U.S. (I think from all sources, public & private) is 170,000. 17,000 have tested positive.

"On the last day of January, Trevor Bedford, a scientist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, in Seattle, hit Publish on a 484-word blog post that should have shaken the nation."

“As this became clear to me, I spent the week of Jan 20 alerting every public health official I know,” Bedford wrote that month. On January 23, the Chinese government, which had spent weeks trying to cover up the virus, swung into action. It locked down the city of Wuhan and by mid-February had restricted the movement of 700 million people. On January 24, the CDC announced it had developed a test for the disease. The FDA wouldn’t approve it for another week and a half."

The link below is a very interesting article on the early warnings (and when it actually occurred) & testing (or lack of).

How the Coronavirus Became an American Catastrophe

It should noted that the initial test developed by CDC was flawed and had a bad ingredient. That's what lead Dr. Fauci to make the public statement that he wished they had a good backup plan.

 

[Jojalu]

One of the ongoing online jokes is that nobody knows anybody who has it. They know people who had a cold or whatever but it wasn't terribly bad. Then you have this very small population that is at risk apparently and for that, we can't isolate just them for some reason. We have to dismantle our whole civilization because 80+ year olds on ventilators are on risk? So is this going to be a yearly thing because it goes in waves, do we just destroy Western Civilization altogether?

I may not be the smartest guy in the world, but this seems kinda crazy! When they say 15% could die, OKAY, that's huge but now the numbers are normalizing and the response seems extreme.

The mortality rate right now for cases that have come to completion is 12%.

The measures are simple and I am having a difficult time understanding why people are not getting it.

If they let it run rampant, the hospitals will be overrun and there will not be enough medical equipment to sustain all life.

People in the 20-65 age group will begin dying at ahigher rate as the only this that is keeping them alive is 2 weeks of being on a ventilator.

We are not even at 1% of the world's population infected and this is a disaster. What if it gets to 10% or God forbid 25-50%.

There were 100 000 cases in the first 3 months. The next 12 days there were 100 000 more, 3 days later 100 000 more. Do the math. If we let that continue to esculate at this clip it will be so bad we won't be able to comprehend it

 

[thewave]

The mortality rate right now for cases that have come to completion is 12%.

The measures are simple and I am having a difficult time understanding why people are not getting it.

If they let it run rampant, the hospitals will be overrun and there will not be enough medical equipment to sustain all life.

People in the 20-65 age group will begin dying at ahigher rate as the only this that is keeping them alive is 2 weeks of being on a ventilator.

We are not even at 1% of the world's population infected and this is a disaster. What if it gets to 10% or God forbid 25-50%.

There were 100 000 cases in the first 3 months. The next 12 days there were 100 000 more, 3 days later 100 000 more. Do the math. If we let that continue to esculate at this clip it will be so bad we won't be able to comprehend it

Yeah that's true. I just wish there was more concise information because it's really difficult when you research it and listen to more than one source of information.

 

[Jojalu]

Yeah that's true. I just wish there was more concise information because it's really difficult when you research it and listen to more than one source of information.

Check out the Lancet. One of the worlds leading institutes. They have some good info on the true numbers.

The WHO admitted to calculating the mortality rate based on all active cases. But because the virus lasts so long it does not accurately portray the real number and you have to use resolved cases as the true number.

All numbers will move as people take bigger precautions and others take none

 

[PromisedLand]

Check out the Lancet. One of the worlds leading institutes. They have some good info on the true numbers.

The WHO admitted to calculating the mortality rate based on all active cases. But because the virus lasts so long it does not accurately portray the real number and you have to use resolved cases as the true number.

All numbers will move as people take bigger precautions and others take none

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/...)30195-X/fulltext#coronavirus-linkback-header

 

[Jojalu]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/...)30195-X/fulltext#coronavirus-linkback-header

Thanks

 

[Mess]

I thought peak was closer to middle of april to end of april; assuming most of "urgent" cases are already tested and quarantined.

FWIW .. Mayor of NYC yesterday was projecting the peak in New York City alone to be in 45-60 days from now..

So you're looking at 1 1/2 - 2 months from now as his best guess.

He is currently looking into turning Madison Square Gardens into an off sight overflow hospital to handle all the sick.

 

[thewave]

Roche Launches Phase III Study of Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug for COVID-19 Pneumonia | BioSpace

 

[4thline]

The mortality rate right now for cases that have come to completion is 12%.

Firstly - not at all advocating for the the relaxation of current measures, as I do believe that they are necessary.

But. From what we are learning now that mortality rate (and also current hospitalization/severity rates) are skewed by the selection bias induced by our testing limitations. We're learning now that this is likely far more widespread than initially thought due cases that are going unreported due any /all of
-identified cases that aren't being "confirmed" due to lack of severity + ease of isolation
-light symptom cases that aren't being identified
-asymptomatic cases that aren't being identified

And as reputable as the Lancet is "cases resolved" isn't exactly a predictive denominator when the thing can kill in days but recovery is weeks.


The risk of overwhelming the healthcare system is very real and we need to take this seriously, but if transmission is currently as widespread as they believe future studies will likely reveal that initial estimates of the mortality and severity rates were high.

 

[Its not your fault]

Yep.

Sadly, now those on fixed incomes would have to now choose what not to buy because of a price hike which won't affect people like those in that picture anyway.....it will just make them try to scam at a higher price.....

Agreed with the no returns. They should be donated for the homeless.

If they arnt donated and are returned they end up in the landfill and more consumers need to know that.

 

[ruaware41]

Will all the Canadian who travel to foreign countries please acknowledge there is always risk when you move over the border?

If you're there doing business for Canada / Canadians I do have some sympathy.

When you're there for pleasure, or to avoid Canada's harsh climate well then the onus is on you to be safe, not Canada.

Going to another country while you're pregnant is a huge personal risk. To you and your baby, not to me.

That's kinda ridiculous what your tone seems to be alluding. So what if someone with money to blow went to another country to avoid Canadian winter? That means somehow Canada has no obligation towards their safety as citizens? Yes I agree that those who went overseas in the current climate knowing full well about covid19 but acted selfishly can all go royally f*** themselves. We shouldn't suffer because of those morons.

Not everyone traveling back was in that predicament though. I'm guessing most left before covid became a serious issue

 

[Jojalu]

Firstly - not at all advocating for the the relaxation of current measures, as I do believe that they are necessary.

But. From what we are learning now that mortality rate (and also current hospitalization/severity rates) are skewed by the selection bias induced by our testing limitations. We're learning now that this is likely far more widespread than initially thought due cases that are going unreported due any all of
-identified cases that aren't being "confirmed" due to lack of severity + ease of isolation
-light symptom cases that aren't being identified
-asymptomatic cases

And as reputable as the Lancet is "cases resolved" isn't exactly a predictive denominator when the thing can kill in days but recovery is weeks.


The risk of overwhelming the healthcare system is very real and we need to take this seriously, but if transmission is currently as widespread as they believe future studies will likely reveal that initial estimates of the mortality and severity rates were high.

Agreed. Just a tool to measure the severity.

There are still tonnes of variables. As we are all in unprecedented waters and struggle to understand why we have reacted in this fashion, knowing full well the consequences of these decisions. I find reading all info that is deemed credible and being able to use discernment is not only helpful but critical to our mental health.

I do believe the numbers will slow and level out but I try to follow the idea of the worst case scenario for those that are vulnerable so I can prepare myself to make any sacrifices that I am asked to

 

[PuckMagi]

I don't think it's a hoax, I think that if you quarantine the right people you should be able to avoid the real cost of this, the economy and I am way more scared about people losing homes and not being able to eat + the health implications with that, especially in countries with no health care.

The economic distress spread over the world will starve more people to death than this thing will likely kill, I mean that.

The locust swarms wont help matters either.

 

[Clark4Ever]

In the last few days, I have opened online accounts at several grocery stores and installed a personal banking app on my phone. Other than going to work and the gas station, I'm not planning on going anywhere for a while.

 

[4thline]

Agreed. Just a tool to measure the severity.

There are still tonnes of variables. As we are all in unprecedented waters and struggle to understand why we have reacted in this fashion, knowing full well the consequences of these decisions. I find reading all info that is deemed credible and being able to use discernment is not only helpful but critical to our mental health.

I do believe the numbers will slow and level out but I try to follow the idea of the worst case scenario for those that are vulnerable so I can prepare myself to make any sacrifices that I am asked to

Agreed.

Regardless of if the death/hospitalization rates are accurate or are actually 1/10th of reported due to an iceberg of unidentified minor cases the bottom line numbers being seen don't change, and they're scary enough. The implications are horrendous

But if such an iceberg does exist it invalidates the rates and the napkin math that predicts xx million deaths based on scaling it linearly across the population. Again, not trying to downplay. Just saying that reports of widespread unreported minor/ asymptomatic carriers with a mutually exclusive situation. Either the reports are false or the severity rates are much much lower than we thought. It can't be both.

We need to remember that when the media comes out with the inevitable "an estimated 100 000 Canadians are infected but not confirmed" and people start apply rates and panicking. 10,000 of them likely won't die. 3000 of them likely won't die. Because if they were serious and heavily symptomatic they would be tested and part of the confirmed case count.

 

[Kiwi]

Agreed. Just a tool to measure the severity.

There are still tonnes of variables. As we are all in unprecedented waters and struggle to understand why we have reacted in this fashion, knowing full well the consequences of these decisions. I find reading all info that is deemed credible and being able to use discernment is not only helpful but critical to our mental health.

I do believe the numbers will slow and level out but I try to follow the idea of the worst case scenario for those that are vulnerable so I can prepare myself to make any sacrifices that I am asked to

I think we will flatten the curve with the current quarantine measures but that can't last forever, once people start moving again I think we will get another spike

I'm starting to think we'd have been better off quarantining the "at risk" and everybody else going about there lives as is and developing some herd immunity, at least we'd still have a functioning economy afterwards

 

[thewave]

I think we will flatten the curve with the current quarantine measures but that can't last forever, once people start moving again I think we will get another spike

I'm starting to think we'd have been better off quarantining the "at risk" and everybody else going about there lives as is and developing some herd immunity, at least we'd still have a functioning economy afterwards

On the bright side, after this is done there may be a fork in the road. If the economy does tank completely and the people demand major changes we could possibly take over all the banks again. The transition period is where the masses could actually do something about the backwards policies of the bankers and the flawed policies of the politicians that were spun by the many special interest groups over the years.

I doubt that kind of change will happen though, Your Gates and Buffets will likely exit this whole debacle even more wealthy, sad truth, but they would be vulnerable during transition period, think Yellow Vests in France at the right time over multiple nations aware.

 

[saltming]

Why Singapore isn’t in lockdown
It’s pretty well-known that children are asymptomatic or only have mild disease, so there was no real reason to close schools. If you close schools, what’s the trigger to reopen them?
In Singapore, we want life to go on as normal. We want businesses, churches, restaurants and schools to stay open. This is what success looks like. Everything goes forward with modifications as needed, and you keep doing this until there’s a vaccine or a treatment.

Why Singapore's coronavirus response worked – and what we can all learn

Sounds like we could learn a few things from them.

 

[yubbers]

Had to wait in line to get into Shoppers. Seems they have a max capacity rule going and it's not many

 

[thewave]

Why Singapore's coronavirus response worked – and what we can all learn

Sounds like we could learn a few things from them.

Great link. I especially like The Wave...

 

[rumman]

Precisely!

The choice is:

A) Arrest these a-holes and put them in house arrest; enforce the law to save Canadians

OR

B) Assume that the goodwill of the people will stop the community wide spread; i.e. policy based hoping people will behave accordingly and risk community wide spread


I know I choose A. But in a democracy I wonder how many people would choose B?

I'm enraged by some of the things people are doing, how do you think the doctor/nurse who's coming home from a 20 hour shift trying to get ahead of this must feel when they see people lining up for video games?

 

[yubbers]

The official Scientific site that the actual papers were on? That or the video on Brighteon? So disregard the actual Doctor and conversation with the other doctors and demonize the place where the video was published?

That's so basic.

when you can't actually argue the topic at hand, just say it's right-wing conspiracy cause Twitter did :p