Counterfactual reasoning is a tool of History: what if...?

[VanIslander]

What if Wayne Gretzky had been a Soviet in the 80s? Wayne himself wonders here:

Click to read more...

 

[VanIslander]

The Rangers KNEW Gordie Howe was a great talent, but they chose to offer him a Catholic boarding home deal at Notre Dame. If they had asked/met what he wanted,... the entire course of hockey history may have shifted. The Stanley Cup in NY in the 50s? Gasoline!

 

[McPoyle]

Pocklinton reportedly won Gretzky in a game of Backgammon (gotta love the 70's) played against the owner of the Winnipeg Jets.

So what happens if you put the best player ever on the 80's Jets? I feel they win several Cups at least, and likely are a dynasty. Oilers meanwhile would maybe not win any cups or only 1 or 2.

Does a wildly more successful Jets team have the ability to stay in Winnipeg? Does a less successful Oilers team have to relocate?

 

[Albatros]

The Oilers with Messier, Kurri, Coffey, Anderson etc. would still have been better than the Jets with Gretzky and Hawerchuk. Winnipeg in the 1980s simply wasn't a Gretzky away from winning a cup, as much as that would have improved them.

 

[MadLuke]

Ownership (and player if they have the ability in anyway to pick a destination) would have got excited with a Gretzky-Hawerchuk, i am not sure it is possible to play that history line as if they do everything like they did. (none of the draft position are the same, but in general worst...), he is just so good it is hard to imagine a franchise blowing it up

 

[Crosby2010]

So many what ifs. Maybe one of them in sports history is Boston passing on Jackie Robinson and then later Willie Mays. Boston was the last MLB team to have a black man on their roster. Pure stubborness at that point as other teams didn't care after 1947 when Robinson arrived. But you can't tell me a Red Sox team in the 1950s with Ted Williams, Jackie Robinson and Willie Mays (throw in Dom DiMaggio) doesn't have some banners hanging in Fenway Park.

But onto hockey. Lemieux as a New Jersey Devil would have been interesting in 1984. That is a HUGE difference between Lemieux and Kirk Muller. Muller was a fine talent, but Mario is Mario. The Pens don't win a Stanley Cup until the Crosby/Malkin years, and who knows, they could be in Kansas City right now for all we know. The Devils meanwhile are more prepared than the Penguins, I think, to start winning in the 1980s. But with the Oilers dynasty it probably is still around 1991 or so until Mario wins.

 

[CharlestownChiefsESC]

So many what ifs. Maybe one of them in sports history is Boston passing on Jackie Robinson and then later Willie Mays. Boston was the last MLB team to have a black man on their roster. Pure stubborness at that point as other teams didn't care after 1947 when Robinson arrived. But you can't tell me a Red Sox team in the 1950s with Ted Williams, Jackie Robinson and Willie Mays (throw in Dom DiMaggio) doesn't have some banners hanging in Fenway Park.

But onto hockey. Lemieux as a New Jersey Devil would have been interesting in 1984. That is a HUGE difference between Lemieux and Kirk Muller. Muller was a fine talent, but Mario is Mario. The Pens don't win a Stanley Cup until the Crosby/Malkin years, and who knows, they could be in Kansas City right now for all we know. The Devils meanwhile are more prepared than the Penguins, I think, to start winning in the 1980s. But with the Oilers dynasty it probably is still around 1991 or so until Mario wins.

Granted Mario was great in his own right but how would NJ have built those teams. Barrasso was already drafted by the time Mario went. Would NJ have hired Craig Patrick in the late 80s by 1989 Lou Lamirello was already there but as we saw with Mario and Scotty Bowman Lemieux didn't want to play for a gm or coach who kept a tight ship. The player Lemieux in nj I don't think would have been much different but all the other pieces would and management would have been questionable

 

[MadLuke]

Many of the big one have been talked a lot (Nordiques-Jets never leaving for example, Roy does not get traded there so what happen with him as a Stars, Wings, Flyers or what not)

Some are hard to mentally process, what if the salary cap appears much later (or a softer one), my brains is not good enough for the complicated one, just like the Mario not with the Penguins scenario what are the chance that the pens are 30th in 2004 and win that Crosby lottery in it ?

Being the KS something in a completely different world, Crosby is a non-Pens seem more likely than otherwise, it was already a freak struck of luck for him to be as is.

Granted Mario was great in his own right but how would NJ have built those teams.

Daneyko-Verbeek in 82, MacLean was drafted in 1983, Ysebaert in 84,, did they lock Fetisov by drafting him, Burke-McLean regardless of who they keep they are in good shape.

Everything else become quickly speculative (Shanahan and so on, become all different now), the Mario less Devils were a powerhouse by 94, made the playoff every year from 90 to their 95 cups, they had 5 mores wins than the 1990 penguins....

 

[CharlestownChiefsESC]

Many of the big one have been talked a lot (Nordiques-Jets never leaving for example, Roy does not get traded there so what happen with him as a Stars, Wings, Flyers or what not)

Some are hard to mentally process, what if the salary cap appears much later (or a softer one), my brains is not good enough for the complicated one, just like the Mario not with the Penguins scenario what are the chance that the pens are 30th in 2004 and win that Crosby lottery in it ?

Being the KS something in a completely different world, Crosby is a non-Pens seem more likely than otherwise, it was already a freak struck of luck for him to be as is.


Daneyko-Verbeek in 82, MacLean was drafted in 1983, Ysebaert in 84,, did they lock Fetisov by drafting him, Burke-McLean regardless of who they keep they are in good shape.

Everything else become quickly speculative (Shanahan and so on, become all different now), the Mario less Devils were a powerhouse by 94, made the playoff every year from 90 to their 95 cups, they had 5 mores wins than the 1990 penguins....

True but Lou was in charge from 87 on, would Mario and him have meshed. Remember he seemed to have no reservations about letting Bowman go.

 

[MadLuke]

True but Lou was in charge from 87 on, would Mario and him have meshed. Remember he seemed to have no reservations about letting Bowman go.

Seem friction with the day to day of a coach to be more likely than a GM (specially for a young star) and more likely to happen with an older Mario.

87-88 to 1991 was a big young, not won anything yet, to make big wave about a GM handling of the team, easy to imagine becoming an issue at some point if it play the same, but they are good by then.

 

[CharlestownChiefsESC]

My biggest one and one that isn't talked about nearly enough is when Harold Ballard pulled an Art Modell 15 years before Art Modell even did it. The story goes that Ballard wanted out of Toronto and offered Peter Pocklington a city swap. While the info doesn't go further than that my assumption was the irl 1979-80 Toronto Maple Leafs would now skate as the Edmonton Oilers,while the irl 1979-80 Edmonton Oilers would now skate as the Toronto Maple Leafs assuming all history and records but having to participate in the expansion draft and follow the rules set for Wha teams entering the league.

Imo 79-80 pretty much stays the same. 80-81 also doesn't change much except for now it's the Toronto Maple Leafs sweeping the heralded 2 years post dynasty Habs in round 1, so I wonder how Montreal would have handled it. After that it would have been the 6 game loss to the Islanders like irl. However 81-82 is where it gets intersting in this tl the miracle on Manchester never happens and the irl Oilers now Leafs are in the Norris Division and would face the St.Louis Blues in round 1. Does that team get by them and potentially go further maybe to the finals and a loss to the Islanders and heading into 83 do they dethrone the Isles a year earlier and by 84 they line up vs someone different in the finals, I figure 85 remains the same but 86 is interesting too as they wouldn't be able to face Calgary till the conference finals who's to say that series goes the same. You figure 87 and 88 aren't much different but now by 89 and in Toronto Gretzky is never dealt and heading into the 90s you figure they win at least in 90,91, possibly 92, and possibly 93 or 94. Heading into the mid 90s Gretzky,Messier, and Coffey were still elite it really would have been the supporting roles that would have been a question mark as Kurri was a different player then and Anderson was done by 94.

The other ripple is Edmonton now with Ballard running the show and being cheap there is no dynasty. By the time Ballard croaks who buys the team and is Gilmour ever there as I'm sure Calgary would not trade a tip player to a rival. My assumption is that the Oilers do move to Houston some time in the 90s and guys like Matthews and Marner are living in Texas now.

Lots to unpack here.

 

[Albatros]

Heading into the mid 90s Gretzky,Messier, and Coffey were still elite it really would have been the supporting roles that would have been a question mark as Kurri was a different player then and Anderson was done by 94.

I don't think Kurri was any sort of a question mark in his role in LA, was money playing C while Gretzky was injured and went on to have good playoffs in '93.

 

[wetcoast]

The Oilers with Messier, Kurri, Coffey, Anderson etc. would still have been better than the Jets with Gretzky and Hawerchuk. Winnipeg in the 1980s simply wasn't a Gretzky away from winning a cup, as much as that would have improved them.

I really wonder how this section would be treating that Edmonton group had gretzky not been their leader and the guy driving the bus.

Hard to imagine how far each guy would have dropped down in historical importance.

Conversely Hawerchuk seems like a guy who gets under rated at times he had very little to work with in the Peg.

 

[wetcoast]

So many what ifs. Maybe one of them in sports history is Boston passing on Jackie Robinson and then later Willie Mays. Boston was the last MLB team to have a black man on their roster. Pure stubborness at that point as other teams didn't care after 1947 when Robinson arrived. But you can't tell me a Red Sox team in the 1950s with Ted Williams, Jackie Robinson and Willie Mays (throw in Dom DiMaggio) doesn't have some banners hanging in Fenway Park.

My first 2 thoughts here was that Boston was just a very white city much later than other american cities through my Canadian sports filter.

Second thought was that I'm glad they didn't have a banner during that time period.

But onto hockey. Lemieux as a New Jersey Devil would have been interesting in 1984. That is a HUGE difference between Lemieux and Kirk Muller. Muller was a fine talent, but Mario is Mario. The Pens don't win a Stanley Cup until the Crosby/Malkin years, and who knows, they could be in Kansas City right now for all we know. The Devils meanwhile are more prepared than the Penguins, I think, to start winning in the 1980s. But with the Oilers dynasty it probably is still around 1991 or so until Mario wins.

Not to the same extent but the Habs wanting Dionne and Guy going to Detroit, wonder how that plays out historically eh?

 

[VanIslander]

Pocklinton reportedly won Gretzky in a game of Backgammon (gotta love the 70's) played against the owner of the Winnipeg Jets.

So what happens if you put the best player ever on the 80's Jets?

1. It might have been more than just an Oilers, Flames, Blackhawks battle to get out of the stacked West!
2. I have taught backgammon to kids for decades (i teach English; the last ten minutes of every hour is learning a new game or continuing/finishing a game; f'n backgammon takes too f'n long; never again).
3. Backgammon is about ANTICIPATION. You can calculate the relative odds of the next player's move. Gretzky of course would own that advantage. So no news here.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

What if Dany Heatley doesn't crash his car in 2003? Do Heatley and Kovalchuk tear it up the rest of the 2000s in Atlanta, what happens to the Thrashers? Does Hossa still get traded from Ottawa, what happens to the mid-late 2000s & beyond Senators? Hossa almost certainly doesn't go to Pittsburgh, Detroit, and then Chicago if Heatley doesn't crash. The Heatley crash effects the whole league standings/transactions in such a way, that if he didn't crash, the Blackhawks don't win 3 Cups and the Oilers don't get McDavid, amongst other possibilities.

 

[MadLuke]

Hossa was so good with Atlanta, I am not sure how to evaluate what can change for that franchise, only big difference would be what a better 2004 season for them ?

Ottawa stil have massive salary issues with Hossa-Chara-Havlat-Redden and co. could play differently

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

So many what ifs. Maybe one of them in sports history is Boston passing on Jackie Robinson and then later Willie Mays. Boston was the last MLB team to have a black man on their roster. Pure stubborness at that point as other teams didn't care after 1947 when Robinson arrived. But you can't tell me a Red Sox team in the 1950s with Ted Williams, Jackie Robinson and Willie Mays (throw in Dom DiMaggio) doesn't have some banners hanging in Fenway Park.

But onto hockey. Lemieux as a New Jersey Devil would have been interesting in 1984. That is a HUGE difference between Lemieux and Kirk Muller. Muller was a fine talent, but Mario is Mario. The Pens don't win a Stanley Cup until the Crosby/Malkin years, and who knows, they could be in Kansas City right now for all we know. The Devils meanwhile are more prepared than the Penguins, I think, to start winning in the 1980s. But with the Oilers dynasty it probably is still around 1991 or so until Mario wins.

Not really true.

Only 4 black players played in the majors before 1950.

The Yankees first black player was Elston Howard in 1955.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Hossa was so good with Atlanta, I am not sure how to evaluate what can change for that franchise, only big difference would be what a better 2004 season for them ?

Ottawa stil have massive salary issues with Hossa-Chara-Havlat-Redden and co. could play differently

No Heatley crash = no trade with Ottawa. Hossa was likely getting traded anyway due to cap issues and would have gone elsewhere. Hossa was a UFA sooner with Atlanta than Heatley would have been. Plenty changes. Every transaction for both teams (which affects the whole league) goes differently with no Heatley crash.

 

[VanIslander]

I 've been a Hossa watcher since his rookie season against a team i gafabout.

The word was Ottawa was not gonna pay him what he was worth. He was better than the media hyped.

In Atlanta (ugh) i saw him score a franchise highest ever 100+ point season.

When Hossa went to Chicago i said: "This is too much". And never tuned in to see him again. (I as a 'nucks fan since '82 cannot stomach the Hawks).

If only Hossa had gone to a MUCH better team than Atlanta! (that relocated years later to Winnipeg).

 

[Brodeur]

2000 Game 6 ECF about to go into 2nd intermission scoreless. Lindros scores a split second after the buzzer. In a parallel universe where there's a little more time on the clock:

- Does Philadelphia hang on to win? If so, Lindros doesn't get hit by Stevens in Game 7.

- If the Flyers win Game 6 (May 24), they would have been rested and had home ice advantage over Dallas who won their Game 7 (May 27). Dallas was banged up and they'd later admit that the short turnaround affected them for Game 1 (May 30).

- Do the Flyers win the Cup? Does Lindros still demand a trade?

 

[Brodeur]

TL;DR: Chris Pronger on the Nordiques/Avs, Peter Forsberg on the Sharks? What does that change for Mats Sundin and Brendan Shanahan?

San Jose held the #2 pick at the 1993 Draft but were willing to trade down for Viktor Kozlov. The Nordiques and Rangers made pitches but they couldn't deliver Kozlov so San Jose eventually made a deal with the Whalers. All three teams were eyeing Chris Pronger.

Quebec apparently offered something centered around Mike Ricci and #10. In a world before everybody had a cell phone, Quebec's management apparently stood up San Jose's when they had agreed to meet the night before the draft to discuss a potential trade.

Earlier Quebec's owner tried to negotiate directly with San Jose's owner who declined to get involved. Sharks co-GM Dean Lombardi was highly annoyed that Quebec tried to go over his head. We were only a year removed from Quebec trading Eric Lindros twice, so they didn't have the best reputation.

Then on the draft floor, Quebec offered the rights to Peter Forsberg straight up for the pick. Lombardi blew his lid.

On talent alone, Lombardi seems to imply that they would have done the deal. But the problem was that CBA allowed certain unsigned European prospects to sign offer sheets. That's how Calgary signed Teemu Selanne the previous summer. Winnipeg begrudgingly matched (400K per season, 1.5 mil signing bonus).

Peter Forsberg and Markus Naslund were about to be offer sheet eligible a few days after the draft. There were already rumors that a couple teams might be willing to give a 4-5 million dollar signing bonus. Unlike other RFAs, the original team didn't receive any compensation if they didn't match.

Since Quebec made the offer so late in the process, San Jose had no time to talk to Forsberg and his agent about what it would take to sign. San Jose couldn't risk trading the #2 pick and then either having to match a bloated offer sheet or even losing Forsberg for nothing.

So in the end they made a more simple deal to move from #2 to #6. But it is interesting to imagine the butterfly effect:

Does Pronger become a mainstay on Colorado's blue line? He wasn't quite there by 1996, so perhaps they'd still trade Owen Nolan for Sandis Ozolinsh. But with no Peter Forsberg, does Quebec keep Mats Sundin instead of trading him at the 1994 Draft? Does Sundin end up with Cup or two?

Does Forsberg get San Jose into the big boy category by the late 90's / early 00's?

Without Pronger in Hartford, does St. Louis trade Brendan Shanahan elsewhere? They likely wouldn't have traded him directly to a division rival in Detroit. Some rumors that St. Louis nearly dealt Shanahan to the Rangers for Alexei Kovalev, Stephane Matteau, and cash? In that case, Shanny is probably content in New York and doesn't get traded to Detroit?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

2010 2nd Round Game 4, Bruins up 3-0 on the Flyers: Mike Richards knocks David Krejci out of the series with a big open ice hit. That swung momentum, Bruins collapse without Krejci, Flyers reverse sweep em en route to the Final.

So if Richards doesn't knock Krejci out, then no Flyers 2010 Cup Final run, Bruins or Canadiens make the Final, completely alters 2011 for the Bruins, alters the Flyers' roster construction for the next few years (which affects the entire future for them). History changing hit for Philadelphia, Boston, potentially others like Montreal, Chicago, Boston, and the rest of the league.

 

[Crosby2010]

Not really true.

Only 4 black players played in the majors before 1950.

The Yankees first black player was Elston Howard in 1955.

I believe Boston dragged their heels to the point where 1960 was their first black player. The Yankees could get away with it since they were winning the World Series, but not Boston.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I believe Boston dragged their heels to the point where 1960 was their first black player. The Yankees could get away with it since they were winning the World Series, but not Boston.

1959.

Pumpsie Green.