Prospect Info: Cossa Crushing it in Grand Rapids

[Frk It]

His roughly .900 in his first pro year in a league that doesn't play defense is not something that can easily be compared a .915 (including playoffs) while playing for a championship hopeful WHL team with multiple NHL prospects in front of him.

I'm not saying that his STATS aren't different, but his overall quality of play is something that isn't as easily contextualized.

2020-21: played on a loaded WHL championship caliber team against shit opponents
2021-22: played more than 3x as many games on a loaded WHL championship caliber team against a wider array of teams including other playoff caliber teams
2022-23: plays on a shaky at best team in a D tier pro league that has minimal structure and nothing that resembles competent defense on most nights

I mean from a development perspective, I am happier with Cossa's play this year than I was all of last year becaue he seems to be finding ways to improve his play. It's well documented how underwhelming he was early in the year, and to look at his last 10 starts for Toledo, he's actually 7-2-1 at a 2.5 GAA and a 0.907 sv% with only 1 true disaster giving up 6 on 18. Take that out and it's 7-1-1 at 2.11 and 0.924.

The notion that this has been a bad year for Cossa (developmentally) feels entirely wrong to me. The turnaround and the confidence that he likely has been building recently can be very significant for his development. Doesn't mean it amounts to anything in the end, but it's better than showing up and being bad or decent and not improving at all.

Wallstedt was more pro ready based on what, 3 years of professional hockey under his belt in Sweden? He came into the AHL and played as bland as bland gets. His first 15 games in the AHL he was 5-7-3 with a 3.2 GAA and a 0.894 sv%. His past 10 have been more lights out (aside from his last game) where he's been 8-1-1 with a 2.0 GAA and a 0.933 sv%. If he continued down the path of his first 15, he wouldn't be celebrated as much as he is by some here, but he has improved with time, reps, and comfort (the same is true for Cossa). It's a positive year for both, and the one you liked more as of the day of the draft should probably still be your favorite today, otherwise you are just extremely short sighted.

I think most people are, and I probably would fall into this camp too, just looking at the big picture.

He is sub .900 SV% in the ECHL in his +2 season with another goalie on the team with a healthy sample size and a save % of .920.

Hard to view that as not concerning.

 

[norrisnick]

I think most people are, and I probably would fall into this camp too, just looking at the big picture.

He is sub .900 SV% in the ECHL in his +2 season with another goalie on the team with a healthy sample size and a save % of .920.

Hard to view that as not concerning.

I mean, Hen just addressed that.

Example time!

Oh, that doesn't look that good compared to his rookie year. What an awful sophomore slump he's having...

Look at this, this is awful!

Nothing to see here, look at the first image to see how terrible he is this season!

Image 1, full season
Image 2, 2022
Image 3, 2023

 

[Frk It]

I mean, Hen just addressed that.

Example time!

View attachment 650689
Oh, that doesn't look that good compared to his rookie year. What an awful sophomore slump he's having...

View attachment 650690
Look at this, this is awful!

View attachment 650691
Nothing to see here, look at the first image to see how terrible he is this season!

Image 1, full season
Image 2, 2022
Image 3, 2023

Someone who experienced so much success as a rookie in the NHL that there was almost nowhere to go but down is being compared to a goalie that has never played in the NHL and is struggling in the ECHL?

Do you want me to explain why this doesn't work?

 

[ThankGord]

I think most people are, and I probably would fall into this camp too, just looking at the big picture.

He is sub .900 SV% in the ECHL in his +2 season with another goalie on the team with a healthy sample size and a save % of .920.

Hard to view that as not concerning.

The other goalie is also 6 years older with 4 years of NCAA and 2 years of ECHL experience.

 

[Frk It]

The other goalie is also 6 years older with 4 years of NCAA and 2 years of ECHL experience.

It's not reasonable to expect our 20 year old goalie drafted top 15 to match the performance of a 26 year old guy not good enough to play in the AHL that had a .911 SV in the ECHL last year?

 

[norrisnick]

Someone who experienced so much success as a rookie in the NHL that there was almost nowhere to go but down is being compared to a goalie that has never played in the NHL and is struggling in the ECHL?

Do you want me to explain why this doesn't work?

It's well documented how underwhelming he was early in the year, and to look at his last 10 starts for Toledo, he's actually 7-2-1 at a 2.5 GAA and a 0.907 sv% with only 1 true disaster giving up 6 on 18. Take that out and it's 7-1-1 at 2.11 and 0.924.

It is folly to look at a season as a whole when there is a clear shift in play/performance partway through. Especially with kids.

Yes, the whole season looks bad. The beginning was a tire fire, but he's coming on strong.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Someone who experienced so much success as a rookie in the NHL that there was almost nowhere to go but down is being compared to a goalie that has never played in the NHL and is struggling in the ECHL?

Do you want me to explain why this doesn't work?

It just comes down to word choice.

Is he struggling in the ECHL or was he struggling in the ECHL? Because like I said, you take out one flop start in his last 10 and he posted 2.11, 0.924, 7-1-1 with 2 shutouts. That isn't struggling, that is playing pretty well.

Doesn't mean he's on the verge of dominating the AHL or anything.

 

[ThankGord]

It's not reasonable to expect our 20 year old goalie drafted top 15 to match the performance of a 26 year old guy not good enough to play in the AHL that had a .911 SV in the ECHL last year?

I think it’s reasonable to expect some growing pains going from playing behind a powerhouse junior team to a mens league.

 

[Frk It]

It is folly to look at a season as a whole when there is a clear shift in play/performance partway through. Especially with kids.

Yes, the whole season looks bad. The beginning was a tire fire, but he's coming on strong.

It just comes down to word choice.

Is he struggling in the ECHL or was he struggling in the ECHL? Because like I said, you take out one flop start in his last 10 and he posted 2.11, 0.924, 7-1-1 with 2 shutouts. That isn't struggling, that is playing pretty well.

Doesn't mean he's on the verge of dominating the AHL or anything.

I didn't even know he has been good his last 10 games, so that is something. I appreciate Hen digging and bringing that up. I just get concerned when he can occasionally go on these runs but then his lows are extreme lows. Because this 10 game run he is on right now is still not getting him over .900 for the season. I would like to see him play like this the rest of the way. He needs to end this year on a good note.

 

[norrisnick]

I didn't even know he has been good his last 10 games, so that is something. I appreciate Hen digging and bringing that up. I just get concerned when he can occasionally go on these runs but then his lows are extreme lows. Because this 10 game run he is on right now is still not getting him over .900 for the season. I would like to see him play like this the rest of the way.

It is waaaaay easier to tank save percentage than it is to bring it back up.

 

[jaster]

It is waaaaay easier to tank save percentage than it is to bring it back up.

 

[izlez]

It just comes down to word choice.

Is he struggling in the ECHL or was he struggling in the ECHL? Because like I said, you take out one flop start in his last 10 and he posted 2.11, 0.924, 7-1-1 with 2 shutouts. That isn't struggling, that is playing pretty well.

Doesn't mean he's on the verge of dominating the AHL or anything.

Are his game logs or splits posted anywhere? Or have you tracked them and want to share? I was looking earlier to see if there was improvement over time but hadn't found anything

 

[ricky0034]

It is waaaaay easier to tank save percentage than it is to bring it back up.

just as a random hypothetical example to illustrate this

say a Goalie gives up 5 goals on 20 shots 5 times

then they give up 1 goal on 20 shots 20 times

in those 25 games their overall save percentage is an underwhelming looking .910

 

[heyfolks]

The way to early conclusion, the wings chose the wrong netminder.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I just can't (and this isn't bias because I like the player) get worked up over a kid in net in lower professional leagues. There is just a lot of game that has nothing to do with his own play when it comes to goalies. It's why everyone knows picking goalies is more voodoo than science.

In general, f a young goalie is tearing up a lower league? I'm not impressed. If he's struggling, I don't worry. Now, you can struggle in very obvious ways (like being unable to read pucks at all) that will be obvious to anyone with eyes or if you're playing a rock solid positional game like what Carey Price did in the NHL and you're just completely shutting teams down. Like some extremes are evident in development. But generally speaking, you're looking for a data point to sell your opinion. If you never liked taking a goalie at 15, you're gonna get overly concerned with what Cossa's doing. If you want to be right that a later round goalie is a gem and a steal, you'll look at Petr Mrazek's WJC and go nuts.

You can't say "yeah, goalies are headcases" and then pull the shocked Pikachu face when a young goalie in development that is clearly being yanked around isn't performing to the superstar level you hoped for.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Are his game logs or splits posted anywhere? Or have you tracked them and want to share? I was looking earlier to see if there was improvement over time but hadn't found anything

I wish you would have asked earlier, because I just ripped it this morning. ECHL is terrible about game logs, so I went through all of their completed games until I got back 10 starts.

File unfortunately does not exist anymore.

 

[SoupNazi]

The way to early conclusion, the wings chose the wrong netminder.

Yes to the first part.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I just can't (and this isn't bias because I like the player) get worked up over a kid in net in lower professional leagues. There is just a lot of game that has nothing to do with his own play when it comes to goalies. It's why everyone knows picking goalies is more voodoo than science.

In general, f a young goalie is tearing up a lower league? I'm not impressed. If he's struggling, I don't worry. Now, you can struggle in very obvious ways (like being unable to read pucks at all) that will be obvious to anyone with eyes or if you're playing a rock solid positional game like what Carey Price did in the NHL and you're just completely shutting teams down. Like some extremes are evident in development. But generally speaking, you're looking for a data point to sell your opinion. If you never liked taking a goalie at 15, you're gonna get overly concerned with what Cossa's doing. If you want to be right that a later round goalie is a gem and a steal, you'll look at Petr Mrazek's WJC and go nuts.

You can't say "yeah, goalies are headcases" and then pull the shocked Pikachu face when a young goalie in development that is clearly being yanked around isn't performing to the superstar level you hoped for.

And also... the difference between .900 and .920 in a lot of these leagues is like 20 goals for the year.

 

[ChadS]

Are his game logs or splits posted anywhere? Or have you tracked them and want to share? I was looking earlier to see if there was improvement over time but hadn't found anything

Here's his save-% in 5 and 10 game rolling averages this season.

 

[Mister Ed]

His last 12 games (7-5-1) :

2.615 GAA / 26.15 shots against / 23.54 saves per games / 0.888 SV%

He's been better, has 2 shutouts in his last 6 games.

 

[Hen Kolland]

If you dig into the games in detail, you’ll find one truly shit game where he allowed 6 goals on 18 shots, and another game where he came in as a backup when the starter got shelled and Cossa received a similar but not as bad treatment as the starter. These performances do have a significant influence on his numbers.

Earlier, I excluded the relief game entirely, so I provided the numbers with and without the one shit performance in his last 10 starts.

 

[Pavels Dog]

It's not reasonable to expect our 20 year old goalie drafted top 15 to match the performance of a 26 year old guy not good enough to play in the AHL that had a .911 SV in the ECHL last year?

He was drafted as a raw talent. Discourse on Cossa reminds me a bit of how down everyone was on Wallinder after his d+1. Helge Grans who was taken just after was seen as the vastly superior pick. You don't hear much like that now.

 

[Bench]

Why are we using a 36 year old goalie playing in the AHL at the very end of his career to try to make us feel better about a guy who took a step back in his +1 season and then a big step back in his +2 season?

Because it means if you were only watching stats, people would prefer the play of that 36-year-old to at least 3 of the top goalie prospects in the world. Not just Cossa, but Askarov and Wally as well.

It's to say: there's no way the stats tell the whole story.

And Hen is pointing out, aptly, how volatile these small sample sizes are.

 

[Frk It]

He was drafted as a raw talent. Discourse on Cossa reminds me a bit of how down everyone was on Wallinder after his d+1. Helge Grans who was taken just after was seen as the vastly superior pick. You don't hear much like that now.

Kinda see where you are going with that, but I don't know.

I was on board with the Wallinder pick. I saw the thought process with this pick at the time, but taking a goalie with this wide of a range of outcomes at #15 and so little games played in his draft year is looking dicey right about now.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Kinda see where you are going with that, but I don't know.

I was on board with the Wallinder pick. I saw the thought process with this pick at the time, but taking a goalie with this wide of a range of outcomes at #15 and so little games played in his draft year is looking dicey right now to me.

It's looking hella dicey, but I'm willing to forgive a lot given it's his first pro season. Next season is when I hit the panic button if there's not significant improvement.