Prospect Info: Cossa Crushing it in Grand Rapids

[Gniwder]

Maybe if he had the same team in front of him his numbers would be worse as well. Or maybe even better. Kind of a pointless comparison though.

That was actually my point, is that unless you watch both teams you don't know.

Besides, Wallstedt busting doesn't make Cossa a better player. I had Wallstedt over Cossa, but I wouldn't have traded up either way. Right now I'd take Wallstedt (or Johnston) and Raty over Cossa though. I said it was a mistake to trade up for a goalie, and I still maintain that point.

 

[lhsgolf19]

 

[jaster]

Someone update thread title pls, it's embarrassingly inaccurate now.

 

[Oddbob]

Someone update thread title pls, it's embarrassingly inaccurate now.

Yeah, I had to actually look outside this thread to see where he was at, and that is simply unacceptable.

 

[SirloinUB]

No one’s writing him off as far as I can tell.

There’s just not a single positive you can come up with about his season so far, which is a big concern when his 19 yo season was already much worse than his 18yo season.

He’s been plain brutal

I just don’t understand the need to put him under a microscope. Well, I do, he was a 1st round pick. But posting about each game, good or bad, seems like a waste.

“He’s been plain brutal”

Woah, breaking news. Maybe the wings can hire you as a scout and goalie drafting will be easy moving forward.

 

[Gniwder]

Woah, breaking news. Maybe the wings can hire you as a scout and goalie drafting will be easy moving forward.

OK, I'll take $250k/yr salary please.

The way I see it, it'll take 4 years before we know if my picks are busts or not, so I'll make $1M even if I suck, lol.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I just don’t understand the need to put him under a microscope. Well, I do, he was a 1st round pick. But posting about each game, good or bad, seems like a waste.

“He’s been plain brutal”

Woah, breaking news. Maybe the wings can hire you as a scout and goalie drafting will be easy moving forward.

So we just shouldn’t talk about our 15th overall pick we traded up to get?

Or do we only talk about him when he plays well? I forgot you control the rules of HF Boards, please update me on what’s acceptable to you?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Maybe if he had the same team in front of him his numbers would be worse as well. Or maybe even better. Kind of a pointless comparison though.


Edit:
Like this guy on Carolina, I'd imagine if he was our goalie we'd be worse off than with Husso, but this guy has the 2nd lowest gaa in the league
View attachment 626591

Dude Kochetkov is the reason they gave up Ned. The Hurricanes are not as good as last year but Kochetkov performs. He’s legit good.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I remember reading an assumption on reddit that isn't scientific but fun to think about in regards to Russian prospects.

Good offensive prospects + bad defensive prospects = good goalie prospects

I quoted it before, but it was (I think) the NHL draft class podcast that interviewed Goran Stubb of NHL CSB and he stated that one of the big reasons we’re seeing such a surge of good Russian goalies is they hired all the great Finnish goalie coaches from Liiga to the KHL.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

I have a hard time separating Cossa's struggles with the struggles of Detroit's minor league teams. GR in particular is just terrible. Their two primary goalies have the following stats:

Olki: 13 games, 3.87 GAA, .863 sv%

Brattstrom: 10 games, 4.11 GAA, .874 sv%

Those two aren't future NHL stars, but they're perfectly capable AHL goaltenders. So I think it's more likely that GR needs serious changes going forward before we can start to evaluate goaltenders. Something is very, very wrong right now.

And Toledo's other goaltender is actually doing worse, so it's not like Cossa is playing awful down there. They just let in a lot of goals.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I have a hard time separating Cossa's struggles with the struggles of Detroit's minor league teams. GR in particular is just terrible. Their two primary goalies have the following stats:

Olki: 13 games, 3.87 GAA, .863 sv%

Brattstrom: 10 games, 4.11 GAA, .874 sv%

Those two aren't future NHL stars, but they're perfectly capable AHL goaltenders. So I think it's more likely that GR needs serious changes going forward before we can start to evaluate goaltenders. Something is very, very wrong right now.

I’ve asked the question before but was damn near assaulted for it, but how much of GR’s roster and management team is controlled by the Devos family that owns the team? Detroit’s AGM is the GM in GR but who does he really answer to in that role?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

So we just shouldn’t talk about our 15th overall pick we traded up to get?

Or do we only talk about him when he plays well? I forgot you control the rules of HF Boards, please update me on what’s acceptable to you?

You shouldn’t say “tut tut, very concerned!” after every game. Goalies just take more time to settle in and develop. You simply don’t have enough data to have a supportable opinion that he’s a failure in any way.

Even the best goalies have horror show games in net and those blow out all these stats you’re shitting your pants about.

Bitching about Cossa right now is like the Lions fans blowing a gasket because we aren’t throwing to Jameson Williams ten times a game and calling it a wasted pick. The whole idea of this Walleye-Griffin swap meet with Cossa is to just get him to see a shit load of rubber.

E: feel free to have the opinion you want.. but you’re just ignoring the mountain of historical evidence that goalies usually need plenty of time to make it. Sure, there are some exceptions, guys who hit the league like a tsunami, but that’s like landing two hall of fame Cs in the 6th and 7th round of consecutive drafts

 

[nbwingsfan]

You shouldn’t say “tut tut, very concerned!” after every game. Goalies just take more time to settle in and develop. You simply don’t have enough data to have a supportable opinion that he’s a failure in any way.

Even the best goalies have horror show games in net and those blow out all these stats you’re shitting your pants about.

Bitching about Cossa right now is like the Lions fans blowing a gasket because we aren’t throwing to Jameson Williams ten times a game and calling it a wasted pick. The whole idea of this Walleye-Griffin swap meet with Cossa is to just get him to see a shit load of rubber.

E: feel free to have the opinion you want.. but you’re just ignoring the mountain of historical evidence that goalies usually need plenty of time to make it. Sure, there are some exceptions, guys who hit the league like a tsunami, but that’s like landing two hall of fame Cs in the 6th and 7th round of consecutive drafts

I have literally posted about him for the first time after his last game as far as I can remember…

Yes goalies need plenty of time, but there’s also a ton of a historical evidence to suggest a goalie playing poorly in both the ECHL and AHL is not a good sign either. Especially for 1st round goalies.

 

[ricky0034]

just because Goalies take a while to become NHL starters doesn't mean they're also routinely sucking it up in lower leagues beforehand, I think there's a weird bit of conflation going on here with that

 

[nbwingsfan]

just because Goalies take a while to become NHL starters doesn't mean they're also routinely sucking it up in lower leagues beforehand, I think there's a weird bit of conflation going on here with that

This.

Yes this season certainly doesn’t mean he’s not going to make it.

It means it’s not a good sign, especially when a lot of the issues we heard/saw in Junior seem to be continuing here. You want to see some kind of improvement but it’s not happening yet.

Apparently we’re only allowed to say good things about our prospects though.

 

[Retire91]

Most any time I see a goalie get a lot of complaints you can almost always guarantee a sub .900 save percentage. But the weird thing is every single Walleye Griffin goalie right now is sub .900. That just seems strange to me. Like a systemic problem. It is possible all 5 goalies are just not good. But the odds of a team collecting 5 goalies that all play sub .900 are kind of low.

Brattstrom was above .900 in SM-liiga Olkinuora was above .900 in both SM-liiga and KHL, Lethemon was above .900 on other ECHL and AHL teams. Every goalie came to Detroit farm team and went below .900 after being above .900 in semi pro teams the season before.

 

[SirloinUB]

So we just shouldn’t talk about our 15th overall pick we traded up to get?

Or do we only talk about him when he plays well? I forgot you control the rules of HF Boards, please update me on what’s acceptable to you?

Well if you actually read my post you'd have recognized I said "posting about each game, good or bad, seems like a waste."

And look, its a public forum, you can post what you want, when you want.

Specific to goalies, though, It just seems futile to me. Shit half the goalies in the NHL right now seem, not good, or at best wildly inconsistent. So to fret about each increment of Cossa's development one way or the other seems exhausting.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Well if you actually read my post you'd have recognized I said "posting about each game, good or bad, seems like a waste."

And look, its a public forum, you can post what you want, when you want.

Specific to goalies, though, It just seems futile to me. Shit half the goalies in the NHL right now seem, not good, or at best wildly inconsistent. So to fret about each increment of Cossa's development one way or the other seems exhausting.

Well you heard it here first, shut down the thread for 2-3 years then we can actually talk about him !

 

[Ezekial]

If you're going to be willfully obtuse, I guess shut the thread down.

 

[SirloinUB]

Well you heard it here first, shut down the thread for 2-3 years then we can actually talk about him !

Ignoring the blatant misrepresentation of what i actually said (fretting about single games), that does seem more productive.

At any rate, Im all for having a discussion but you will drive your self crazy fretting over each increment (ie. game) of development.

For my own curiosity, I took a look at the top 10 goalies (by sv%). Obviously a random sample but reflective of the goalies playing best right now.

1) Linus Ullmark, 6th rounder: Had multiple U18 seasons with a sub .900 sv% but has shown somewhat steady progression as a pro with several flat seasons in the low .900s.

2) Pyotr Kochetkov, 2nd rounder: shown somewhat consistent development with several middling (.906ish) sv% in the KHL.

3) Connor Hellebuyck, 5th round pick: steady linear progression

4) Ilya Sorokin, 3rd rounder: who has actually had a very linear progression

5) Matt Murray, 3rd round pick: posted 3 consectuive sub .900 seasons in the OHL (including his first 2 after being drafted). Obvioulsy won some cups with the pens but has since posted back to back sub .900 sv% before rebounding again.

6) Craig Anderson, 3rd draft pick: who went unsigned. Was redrafted two years later and posted a sub .900 sv% in his only ahl season before getting an opportunity in the NHL

7) Alexandar Georgiev, Undrafted goalie: who posted a .904 sv% over two ahl seasons before permanently establishing himself at the NHL Level

8) Darcy Kuemper, 6th rounder: posted a sub .900 sv% in his draft year. Had a worse D+1 year in the WHL than Cossa.

9) Ilya Samsonov, 1st rounder: He has shown steady progression however lets not forget washington was looking for a permanent option in net felt they couldn’t trust him. so let him walk to UFA despite his (mostly) steady development.

10) Filip Gustavsson, 2nd round: Good in the SHL then had multiple sub .900 sv % Seasons in AHL & ECHL for multiple seasons

(Bonus random sample) Martin Brodeur, a 1st rounder who posted 3 consecutive sub .900 sv%s immediately after being drafted including 1 in the ahl before putting up a .915 in the NHL.

Lots of different paths that had their individual (year to year) fluctuations and in several, cases non-linear development. I believe the youngest player on this list (excluding Brodeur) to debut at the NHL was 23 years old (demonstrating the required lead time for goalies). Keep in mind, hockey is, statistically, the most random major sport and goalie is the most random position within that sports.

So yea, stressing and nitpicking each game is just too in the weeds to glean much. His season as a whole? Not good, but that has happened to plenty of quality netminders (see brodeur, who was worse in junior hockey than Cossa).

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

This.

Yes this season certainly doesn’t mean he’s not going to make it.

It means it’s not a good sign, especially when a lot of the issues we heard/saw in Junior seem to be continuing here. You want to see some kind of improvement but it’s not happening yet.

Apparently we’re only allowed to say good things about our prospects though.

If you didn’t include the little snippy crap at the end, I’d agree. But all too often (and I’m not saying you were guilty of it) it’s just “REEEE .897 in Toledo! Do not want!” or “we definitely should have gone with Jesper Wallstedt who is a sure thing to be good even though he’s puttering close to the same stats.

Mostly, I just think it should be readily apparent that when you take the following into consideration, it’s pretty weird to come away “I’m concerned specifically about Cossa”

1) he’s clearly getting yanked all over the system as evidenced by the topic title. The Wings are doing this so he can see as many pucks as he possibly can in a more difficult place than the WHL. This is not conducive to having good looking stats because there is chemistry to worry about with your D.

2) GRG and Toledo are both pretty horrific defensively. As someone else noted, nobody else in the Wings system there is over .900 sv% either. It’s possible that they just have five very bad goalies… but more likely, something is rotten in Denmark.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Ignoring the blatant misrepresentation of what i actually said (fretting about single games), that does seem more productive.

At any rate, Im all for having a discussion but you will drive your self crazy fretting over each increment (ie. game) of development.

For my own curiosity, I took a look at the top 10 goalies (by sv%). Obviously a random sample but reflective of the goalies playing best right now.

1) Linus Ullmark, 6th rounder: Had multiple U18 seasons with a sub .900 sv% but has shown somewhat steady progression as a pro with several flat seasons in the low .900s.

2) Pyotr Kochetkov, 2nd rounder: shown somewhat consistent development with several middling (.906ish) sv% in the KHL.

3) Connor Hellebuyck, 5th round pick: steady linear progression

4) Ilya Sorokin, 3rd rounder: who has actually had a very linear progression

5) Matt Murray, 3rd round pick: posted 3 consectuive sub .900 seasons in the OHL (including his first 2 after being drafted). Obvioulsy won some cups with the pens but has since posted back to back sub .900 sv% before rebounding again.

6) Craig Anderson, 3rd draft pick: who went unsigned. Was redrafted two years later and posted a sub .900 sv% in his only ahl season before getting an opportunity in the NHL

7) Alexandar Georgiev, Undrafted goalie: who posted a .904 sv% over two ahl seasons before permanently establishing himself at the NHL Level

8) Darcy Kuemper, 6th rounder: posted a sub .900 sv% in his draft year. Had a worse D+1 year in the WHL than Cossa.

9) Ilya Samsonov, 1st rounder: He has shown steady progression however lets not forget washington was looking for a permanent option in net felt they couldn’t trust him. so let him walk to UFA despite his (mostly) steady development.

10) Filip Gustavsson, 2nd round: Good in the SHL then had multiple sub .900 sv % Seasons in AHL & ECHL for multiple seasons

(Bonus random sample) Martin Brodeur, a 1st rounder who posted 3 consecutive sub .900 sv%s immediately after being drafted including 1 in the ahl before putting up a .915 in the NHL.

Lots of different paths that had their individual (year to year) fluctuations and in several, cases non-linear development. I believe the youngest player on this list (excluding Brodeur) to debut at the NHL was 23 years old (demonstrating the required lead time for goalies). Keep in mind, hockey is, statistically, the most random major sport and goalie is the most random position within that sports.

So yea, stressing and nitpicking each game is just too in the weeds to glean much. His season as a whole? Not good, but that has happened to plenty of quality netminders (see brodeur, who was worse in junior hockey than Cossa).

Brodeur was playing in the Q in the early 90s where there was literally ONE goalie with an above .900sv%. Brodeurs .885% was actually one of the best in the league.

I’m assuming you didn’t know what junior hockey, especially the Q, was like back then otherwise you wouldn’t have used that example.

Anyways, I haven’t “fretted” over every single game. I posted about him for the first time like a week ago.

It’s just very homer of some fans here to say what he’s doing this season “isn’t a concern”.

It’s absolutely a concern when there isn’t a positive you can come up with for him this year

 

[SirloinUB]

Brodeur was playing in the Q in the early 90s where there was literally ONE goalie with an above .900sv%. Brodeurs .885% was actually one of the best in the league.

I’m assuming you didn’t know what junior hockey, especially the Q, was like back then otherwise you wouldn’t have used that example.

Anyways, I haven’t “fretted” over every single game. I posted about him for the first time like a week ago.

It’s just very homer of some fans here to say what he’s doing this season “isn’t a concern”.

It’s absolutely a concern when there isn’t a positive you can come up with for him this year

The entire point is that goalie development takes time, is usually non-linear, takes different paths, and is influenced by their specific situations (such as poor defense in the Q and AHL)

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Brodeur was playing in the Q in the early 90s where there was literally ONE goalie with an above .900sv%. Brodeurs .885% was actually one of the best in the league.

I’m assuming you didn’t know what junior hockey, especially the Q, was like back then otherwise you wouldn’t have used that example.

Anyways, I haven’t “fretted” over every single game. I posted about him for the first time like a week ago.

It’s just very homer of some fans here to say what he’s doing this season “isn’t a concern”.

It’s absolutely a concern when there isn’t a positive you can come up with for him this year

You keep taking these points that many of us are stating as being directed at you and only you. They're not. There is reason to be concerned... but when all we ever get (from dozens of people, not solely you) is "I'm super worried about Cossa", it gets a bit grating. You just happen to be the last one coming through the door with the take and it's frustrating. Of course we want to see him perform better. But I think his stats would look better and everyone would shut the hell up about him and go on to analyze other things if the Walleye and Griffins didn't keep playing tug of war with the player.

It's also quite annoying to read the opinions of those people who are just staunch "I'd never take a goalie that high and I'm pissed we didn't take Aatu Raty or insert other 1st/2nd round forward du jour" that are looking for any reason to knock the pick. Confirmation bias, you know. And sure, I'm biased towards giving a goalie a break... but it's just so crazy that with so many destabilizing things happening around him that so many are terrified. If he was in Toledo full-time or in GRG full-time and had the net and was doing this? I'd be way more concerned. Right now, it's literally just give him all the games at all levels to see professional level pucks because he was on a powerhouse Oil Kings team and could benefit from just being peppered with pucks even if they happen to go in more than you'd like.


And I mean... wasn't he in that 8-7 boatrace with GRG? Sometimes games get like that and stats get blown up.

 

[nbwingsfan]

The entire point is that goalie development takes time, is usually non-linear, takes different paths, and is influenced by their specific situations (such as poor defense in the Q and AHL)

Ok great.

So basically just don’t bother talking about Cossa because “development is non linear”?

Why even have a message boards if you can’t talk about the struggles of a player?