Prospect Info: Cossa Crushing it in Grand Rapids

[GMR]

What? We won twice in the 90s with non HOF goalie, Pens won twice without HOF goalie, Rangers won without HOF goalie, which is half the teams without a HOF goalie who won. You have never needed a HOF goalie to win, but in MTL 93 it was a major plus. Nowadays there is maybe 2 or 3 Elite goalies in the NHL, tops, then a plethora of guys who one year are really good, and then the next year either suck or are average.

Really? Barrasso, Osgood, and Richter were all Hall of Very Good. Plus, you had Roy, Belfour, and Brodeur during that era, and Hasek. The latter didn't win in the 90's but was the best goalie. The point is, back then teams felt they needed a star goalie in net to compete. Not anymore. You can win with a mediocre goalie, so long as the team in front of him is great.

 

[lidstromiscool]

Going back and watching his recent games, holy cow is Toledo bad defensively. Turnovers, defensive zone coverage breakdowns, odd man rushes etc. One of the least structured teams I have ever watched. Have to add that Cossa has not been good either, he's part of the problem also. I'm surprised he's still in the East Coast league. Losing 7 of 8 games and getting lit up in the process has to hurt his confidence. Would think it would be better for him to get lit up in the AHL. Gotta think Yzerman is pretty upset with the pick so far.

 

[GoBoltz56]

1 goal on 24 shots last night in a 4-1 win.

 

[ChadS]

Dug up some extra team shot/save stats, and Toledo is (out of 28 teams):
- 23rd in points
- 25th in goals scored
- 16th in goals allowed (no EN)
- 13th in shots allowed (no EN)
- 19th in save-%

So their defense is clearly better than their offense. Comparing the shots allowed and goals allowed, one could maybe argue Cossa isn't doing quite as good a job as the defense in front of him? Still a lot better than the offense.

More shots allowed seems to somewhat correlate with higher save-% across the league (more low danger shots?), so maybe they're focusing too much on D which leads to mostly high danger shots and lower save-%? Just curious speculation, no knowledge whatsoever.

 

[GoBoltz56]

Another 4 goals against on 20-something shots last night and an L

 

[Hen Kolland]

Another 4 goals against on 20-something shots last night and an L

I think people can find the box scores if they are interested. Might save yourself some keystrokes

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Going back and watching his recent games, holy cow is Toledo bad defensively. Turnovers, defensive zone coverage breakdowns, odd man rushes etc. One of the least structured teams I have ever watched. Have to add that Cossa has not been good either, he's part of the problem also. I'm surprised he's still in the East Coast league. Losing 7 of 8 games and getting lit up in the process has to hurt his confidence. Would think it would be better for him to get lit up in the AHL. Gotta think Yzerman is pretty upset with the pick so far.

I don't think Yzerman has any feelings one way or another with the pick. Goalies are notorious for taking eons to grow. Andrei Vasilevskiy was taken in 2012 and didn't play a second of NHL hockey for two years and didn't get material NHL time until 4 years in.... and he's been one of the fastest to make it up to the league and most booming successes ever.

 

[izlez]

I think people can find the box scores if they are interested. Might save yourself some keystrokes

Meh. I'm on this message board a lot. It's kind of nice to have people post some box scores rather than tracking them down on a different website for each prospect

 

[raymond23]

An .898 SV% in the ECHL is really disappointing for a 1st round pick goaltender...

I get goalies are voodoo and all but there is definitely cause for concern

 

[lidstromiscool]

I don't think Yzerman has any feelings one way or another with the pick. Goalies are notorious for taking eons to grow. Andrei Vasilevskiy was taken in 2012 and didn't play a second of NHL hockey for two years and didn't get material NHL time until 4 years in.... and he's been one of the fastest to make it up to the league and most booming successes ever.

Its not the long journey that most goalies go through that has Yzerman upset with the pick. It's the fact that he traded up to take a goalie in the first round, who has regressed in two straight seasons, and is currently struggling in the ECHL.

Goalies taking awhile to develop is nothing new, first round picks regressing for two years, and struggling in the ECHL is almost unheard of. Even McCollum was in the AHL in his D+2 . In his D+2 season, Vasilevskiy was the best player on his KHL team and showed positive development.

 

[Filppula]

Yep, definite cause for concern.

But I guess this will be shot down because “goalies take time”. They certainly do, but regression is concerning.

 

[NickH8]

Its not the long journey that most goalies go through that has Yzerman upset with the pick. It's the fact that he traded up to take a goalie in the first round, who has regressed in two straight seasons, and is currently struggling in the ECHL.

Goalies taking awhile to develop is nothing new, first round picks regressing for two years, and struggling in the ECHL is almost unheard of. Even McCollum was in the AHL in his D+2 . In his D+2 season, Vasilevskiy was the best player on his KHL team and showed positive development.

Yep, definite cause for concern.

But I guess this will be shot down because “goalies take time”. They certainly do, but regression is concerning.

Agree here.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Yep, definite cause for concern.

But I guess this will be shot down because “goalies take time”. They certainly do, but regression is concerning.

Toledo, as lidstromiscool has said, is a wretched team. Especially at lower levels, a wretched team can make a wretched goalie performance. I think far too often people with absolutely no sporting acumen look at small samples and say "Oh, this is super concerning" or "Oh wow, this guy is incredible!" and it's completely the wrong call. In a position where it is notoriously team dependent (unless you're a magician like Dominik Hasek) and one that has a very clear maturation period that must take place, I don't see the need. And this isn't the fact that I'm a huge Cossa guy getting in my mind.

Cossa played on MFing stacked Oil Kings teams and now he's playing on an exceptionally bad Walleye team. It's part of the learning process. Not only that, the Walleye are playing him like every night.

I'm sure they wish he was churning out .950 sv% nights on the regular, but for now, they literally just want him to play and play a lot. We are not in a position where we need Sebastian Cossa to be a Red Wing playing 60 games a night for another several years.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Yep, definite cause for concern.

But I guess this will be shot down because “goalies take time”. They certainly do, but regression is concerning.

Rogle needs a goalie. Rifalk and Clang are not great this year.

 

[lidstromiscool]

Toledo, as lidstromiscool has said, is a wretched team. Especially at lower levels, a wretched team can make a wretched goalie performance. I think far too often people with absolutely no sporting acumen look at small samples and say "Oh, this is super concerning" or "Oh wow, this guy is incredible!" and it's completely the wrong call. In a position where it is notoriously team dependent (unless you're a magician like Dominik Hasek) and one that has a very clear maturation period that must take place, I don't see the need. And this isn't the fact that I'm a huge Cossa guy getting in my mind.

Cossa played on MFing stacked Oil Kings teams and now he's playing on an exceptionally bad Walleye team. It's part of the learning process. Not only that, the Walleye are playing him like every night.

I'm sure they wish he was churning out .950 sv% nights on the regular, but for now, they literally just want him to play and play a lot. We are not in a position where we need Sebastian Cossa to be a Red Wing playing 60 games a night for another several years.

You're being pretty harsh on Toledo. They aren't the best team in the league, but they have outshot, out chanced, and out possessed their opponents this year during 5v5 play (via instat). I would actually say that goaltending is a major weakness for Toledo. I am pretty concerned, but Cossa is very young and it wouldn't be the first time a goalie struggles and then turns into a great NHL goaltender. I think me and other supporters would like to see more consistent 'flashes' from him, instead of the good game/bad game rotation he seems to be on. Hopefully in three years, I can look back at this thread and admire how wrong I was about him.

 

[ricky0034]

this thread on Cossa's season so far:



not that i'm even particularly concerned since the sample size is still pretty small but I mean....come on

 

[haulinbass]

Toledo, as lidstromiscool has said, is a wretched team. Especially at lower levels, a wretched team can make a wretched goalie performance. I think far too often people with absolutely no sporting acumen look at small samples and say "Oh, this is super concerning" or "Oh wow, this guy is incredible!" and it's completely the wrong call. In a position where it is notoriously team dependent (unless you're a magician like Dominik Hasek) and one that has a very clear maturation period that must take place, I don't see the need. And this isn't the fact that I'm a huge Cossa guy getting in my mind.

Cossa played on MFing stacked Oil Kings teams and now he's playing on an exceptionally bad Walleye team. It's part of the learning process. Not only that, the Walleye are playing him like every night.

I'm sure they wish he was churning out .950 sv% nights on the regular, but for now, they literally just want him to play and play a lot. We are not in a position where we need Sebastian Cossa to be a Red Wing playing 60 games a night for another several years.

It's also notable that he got beat out to start at world juniors during his last year of eligibility as a high pick. Wasn't good in prospects camps. To many excuses to justify this kid. He has consisentantly underwhelmed everywhere.

There is no arguing that he has been trending in the wrong direction. Doesn't mean he can't turn it around, but there is serious reason for concern at this point.

I'm not a fan of high picks on goalies. Also the goalie turnover rate in the last 10 years has been crazy. Not many goalies are staying consistently good in this league anymore. It's a position you throw some darts at round 2+ and make sure you keep your full fill in the pipeline. If things don't work out then goalies can be found elsewhere. In all reality, I don't think I would want to land on an elite goalie and tie up that much cap on them anyways. A longterm big contract on a goalie could end up bad real fast.

 

[ChadS]

You're being pretty harsh on Toledo. They aren't the best team in the league, but they have outshot, out chanced, and out possessed their opponents this year during 5v5 play (via instat). I would actually say that goaltending is a major weakness for Toledo. I am pretty concerned, but Cossa is very young and it wouldn't be the first time a goalie struggles and then turns into a great NHL goaltender. I think me and other supporters would like to see more consistent 'flashes' from him, instead of the good game/bad game rotation he seems to be on. Hopefully in three years, I can look back at this thread and admire how wrong I was about him.

Pretty extreme example today, a 6-1 loss but outshooting the opposition 36-16. Cossa benched after 5 goals on 12 shots, their other guy saved 3 of 4. These game stats almost sound fake, they're so bad. Also a great example of how horrible the offense is like I wrote earlier.

 

[izlez]

Pretty extreme example today, a 6-1 loss but outshooting the opposition 36-16. Cossa benched after 5 goals on 12 shots, their other guy saved 3 of 4. These game stats almost sound fake, they're so bad. Also a great example of how horrible the offense is like I wrote earlier.

...wtf...

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I just think it's crazy to get wound up on "this is very concerning' when the last time this all happened we had a goalie who everyone was so certain was an ultra-star because he shined in the WJC and yet he played and was easily exploitable at the NHL level after people figured him out (Mrazek).

There is literally no reason to look at 19 year old Sebastian Cossa playing lots of professional hockey and see only "regressing". They're clearly working on things with him, which is why they're running him out in GR and in Toledo. I get not liking high drafted goalies... I just think it's incredibly worthless to be looking at a goalie's draft year and first year or two after and somehow ascribing anything to it... particularly when the goalie is transitioning from a team with lots of talent and good structure to a team that admittedly is loosey-goosey.

Right now, you're looking for signs that he's gonna fail because you went in pre-disposed to not like the pick because you don't like any high drafted goalie or you wanted a different guy.

E: You can't say "I know goalies are voodoo" and also handwring like this. Development for goalies is not linear and if you can accept that, you shouldn't be looking at every single game saying "Oh no, the sky is falling and he gave up 5 goals on 12 shots". Goalies in literally every sense of the word are different cats than the rest of the team.

 

[izlez]

I just think it's crazy to get wound up on "this is very concerning' when the last time this all happened we had a goalie who everyone was so certain was an ultra-star because he shined in the WJC and yet he played and was easily exploitable at the NHL level after people figured him out (Mrazek).

There is literally no reason to look at 19 year old Sebastian Cossa playing lots of professional hockey and see only "regressing". They're clearly working on things with him, which is why they're running him out in GR and in Toledo. I get not liking high drafted goalies... I just think it's incredibly worthless to be looking at a goalie's draft year and first year or two after and somehow ascribing anything to it... particularly when the goalie is transitioning from a team with lots of talent and good structure to a team that admittedly is loosey-goosey.

Right now, you're looking for signs that he's gonna fail because you went in pre-disposed to not like the pick because you don't like any high drafted goalie or you wanted a different guy.

"This guy is great in lower leagues, but he might not be able to take the next step to be a star in the NHL"
and
"This guy is absolute garbage in lower leagues, but he might still be a star in the NHL"

Aren't exactly equivalent statements.


I'm not saying Cossa is garbage. I haven't watched him much. But I don't know why some people seem to think we're forbidden from trying to form an opinion on him.

 

[raymond23]

Kid is getting lit up consistently in the ECHL…

 

[Henkka]

Yzerman wanted him to get challenged...

...and that's exactly what's happening.

He is playing behind a crap team, and mostly has to stand over his head all the f***ing time. Many times even that isn't enough from goalies at worst teams.

This is better than easy wins with against easy competition at junior league. That does not develop you anywhere - shooting gallery will.

Just be patient.

 

[RedWingzz]

0.889 in the Coast is absolutely dreadful for any goalie, let alone one who was drafted int he middle of the first round. There's lots of time here, and goalies usually take longer, but this is very concerning.

0.889 in the ECHL.....

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

"This guy is great in lower leagues, but he might not be able to take the next step to be a star in the NHL"
and
"This guy is absolute garbage in lower leagues, but he might still be a star in the NHL"

Aren't exactly equivalent statements.


I'm not saying Cossa is garbage. I haven't watched him much. But I don't know why some people seem to think we're forbidden from trying to form an opinion on him.

It's not that you're forbidden to have an opinion. It's that such an opinion is one that is knowingly based upon sand. Goalies, particularly young goalies, are weird in development. Goaltender is also a ludicrously team dependent position and is even more so when you're looking at a young goalie transitioning. You can not like Cossa. You can be concerned about his growth. But to just simply drop the "oof, under .900 in the ECHL!" as a reason to be terrified... the Wings are making sure he gets run out and challenged by a ton of shots after he didn't really ever get shelled with the Oil Kings.