OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) thread

[Doctyl]

We don’t now the real death rate yet, calm down and stop spreading your own opinion as facts.

What opinion? These are the facts we have.

 

[AlaBlueShirt]

What opinion? These are the facts we have.

So you’re telling me that the real death rate is far worse than h1n1?

 

[Doctyl]

So you’re telling me that the real death rate is far worse than h1n1?

I cannot tell you the actual death rate. No one can. It’s possible that we will never know the true death rate.

I can tell you that of confirmed and closed cases (recovered or dead) the global death rate is ~7%. This is a bad virus and treating it like a media conspiracy, just the flu, or whatever other nonsense has been spreading around is a dangerous mindset.

 

[AlaBlueShirt]

I cannot tell you the actual death rate. No one can. It’s possible that we will never know the true death rate.

I can tell you that of confirmed and closed cases (recovered or dead) the global death rate is ~7%. This is a bad virus and treating it like a media conspiracy, just the flu, or whatever other nonsense has been spreading around is a dangerous mindset.

That isn’t the real death rate. It’s just based on people who have been confirmed with the virus, who usually are in a bad state.

 

[duhmetreE]

I cannot tell you the actual death rate. No one can. It’s possible that we will never know the true death rate.

I can tell you that of confirmed and closed cases (recovered or dead) the global death rate is ~7%. This is a bad virus and treating it like a media conspiracy, just the flu, or whatever other nonsense has been spreading around is a dangerous mindset.

No, no its not.

 

[Doctyl]

That isn’t the real death rate. It’s just based on people who have been confirmed with the virus, who usually are in a bad state.

But you don’t know the death rate either. I’m not sure you quite grasp the math on just how many more unconfirmed cases there would have to be for the mortality rate to fall below the swine flu pandemic’s

 

[Doctyl]

No, no its not.

So there was a first half to that sentence that was integral to the accuracy of the number that you bolded.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Almost everyone I know is taking this seriously and is panicked. Everything is being shutdown and governments are taking extreme measures. Despite all of that there are people, some in this thread, that won't be happy until everyone is on suicide watch and get angry that not everyone is there. Frankly, you're not doing anyone favors.

 

[Doctyl]

Almost everyone I know is taking this seriously and is panicked. Everything is being shutdown and governments are taking extreme measures. Despite all of that there are people, some in this thread, that won't be happy until everyone is on suicide watch and get angry that not everyone is there. Frankly, you're not doing anyone favors.

No one is advocating for suicide watch, Jesus.

Use common sense, be clean, avoid large public spaces, stay safe. Telling yourself lies about how this isn’t that bad or it’s just as bad as the flu is dangerous. Governments don’t cancel massive amounts of public events and send whole industries in spirals over nothing.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

No one is advocating for suicide watch, Jesus.

Use common sense, be clean, avoid large public spaces, stay safe. Telling yourself lies about how this isn’t that bad or it’s just as bad as the flu is dangerous. Governments don’t cancel massive amounts of public events and send whole industries in spirals over nothing.

And yet, I think I know one person that isn't taking this seriously and a few that are but are relatively calm about it. Everyone else is in mass panic and taking all of the precautions. Some of the precautions are forced on them as well. If people who ARE taking precautions as everyone I know is want to feel better about the virus so that they don't lose their sanity they should. Otherwise, we'll go spiraling out of control faster than the virus spreads.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Also, you openly admit that the real death rate is much lower than being quoted and are sharing the inaccurate one. How is that not fear-mongering?

 

[NYR Viper]

People realize that if the mortality rate is lower than what is currently projected based on the number of cases and the number of people killed than the only other possibility is that the true number of people with the virus is MUCH higher than currently projected. Also, it seems to take ~3-4 weeks for someone to deteriorate and pass away so if the number of people with it is MUCH higher than currently projected based on the higher mortality rate than the infected number was much higher 3-4 weeks than originally stated. And with that in mind and how exponential growth work, that means that current number of people infected is more than likely in the hundreds of thousands, not anywhere close to the current number shown.

That’s the part we need to be concerned with. The ease at which this is transferred and the fact that we seem to have no firm grasp on the number we of people with it. If the number doubles every other day, there’s a big difference between the number being 10,000 nationally currently or 100,000 nationally. And based on the death count I’d say we’re a lot closer to that 100,000 number than 10,000. Now take into a oh t the incubation period and we’re probably exceeding 100,000 people pretty easily right now. Again, that number doubles every other day and won’t truly show itself for at least a week, maybe a bit more, within the health system.

 

[AntNYR]

Almost everyone I know is taking this seriously and is panicked. Everything is being shutdown and governments are taking extreme measures. Despite all of that there are people, some in this thread, that won't be happy until everyone is on suicide watch and get angry that not everyone is there. Frankly, you're not doing anyone favors.

There's a middle road between panic and pretending this is nothing. To me that's what almost everyone here has been advocating for by either criticizing the only-a-flu crowd or by alleviating the worst fears of others. And mostly with actual science too, which is nice to see.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

There's a middle road between panic and pretending this is nothing. To me that's what almost everyone here has been advocating for by either criticizing the only-a-flu crowd or by alleviating the worst fears of others. And mostly with actual science too, which is nice to see.

Sure, there's a middle ground, I don't see anyone taking that middle ground. People are actively angry if people aren't panicking and that's disgusting to me. Even the "it's only the flu" crowd I'm sure is taking precautions as no one wants to get the flu. Most precautions are not even voluntary. So if people are coping with this by saying it's just the flu but are still taking precautions who the f*** is anyone to tell them what to do. Unless you're one of those people that literally thinks the world should stop destroying the economy and are mad that some people still are leaving the house.

 

[noupf]

H1N1 did get media hype, not quite to this extent but it absolutely did. H1N1 infected probably a quarter of the global population, but only had a mortality rate around .02.

Over the 2 years from 2008-2010 in total H1N1 killed ~18,000 by the end of the pandemic.

Since November, we are already over 5,500 deaths from COVID-19’s first case in China.


We also know what the flu is. H1N1 was responsible for the 1918 spanish flu. We had a much better response to it 90 years later. COVID-19 is closely related to one of the scariest viruses we’ve ever seen, and while it doesn’t act as deadly as SARS it still has no treatment and no vaccine. There is no real reason to believe this will get better with the summer months. Quarantine is the only effective measure we have against the spread of the family of coronaviruses.

Dude, H1N1 did not have anywhere near the media hype and panic we are seeing today. Not even remotely close. Also your numbers are incorrect. H1N1 killed anywhere from 150k-400k world wide. The 18,000 you cited were approximate US deaths.

I’m not knocking severity here, but this is full blown media driven panic and there’s an underlying reason. I’m just not sure what it is........well I have my theories, but it can’t be proven.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I cannot tell you the actual death rate. No one can. It’s possible that we will never know the true death rate.

I can tell you that of confirmed and closed cases (recovered or dead) the global death rate is ~7%. This is a bad virus and treating it like a media conspiracy, just the flu, or whatever other nonsense has been spreading around is a dangerous mindset.

I didn't want to believe it, but the site* I use confirms that number. (maybe the site you use?) It's an average though of all cases worldwide. We have to factor in demographics, infrastructure and hygiene standards.

The only chart I care for is this one (age/death relation) : Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

*Coronavirus Update (Live): 150,649 Cases and 5,619 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I didn't want to believe it, but the site* I use confirms that number. (maybe the site you use?) It's an average though of all cases worldwide. We have to factor in demographics, infrastructure and hygiene standards.

The only chart I care for is this one (age/death relation) : Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

*Coronavirus Update (Live): 150,649 Cases and 5,619 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

5,619/150,649 is 3.7%.

I guess that's going by the closed cases.

 

[AntNYR]

Also, you openly admit that the real death rate is much lower than being quoted and are sharing the inaccurate one. How is that not fear-mongering?

His comment was about the global death rate of cases, in which the person had either died or recovered. People misunderstood this to mean the global death rate of all cases. Those are two different things.

Sure, there's a middle ground, I don't see anyone taking that middle ground. People are actively angry if people aren't panicking and that's disgusting to me. Even the "it's only the flu" crowd I'm sure is taking precautions as no one wants to get the flu. Most precautions are not even voluntary. So if people are coping with this by saying it's just the flu but are still taking precautions who the f*** is anyone to tell them what to do. Unless you're one of those people that literally thinks the world should stop destroying the economy and are mad that some people still are leaving the house.

Our experiences seem to vastly differ. I don't think countering misinformation, partial truths and bad science counts as being actively angry. I count it as being actively awesome. It's one thing to think that current measures are overblown, but quite another if you're trying to back it up with easily disprovable misinformation. I'm sure some people might classify me as panicking and being overly cautious but so far my preparedness has been an extra milk carton and canceling a minor trip to see my aged relatives.

 

[Crease]

Arguing about the death rate sort of misses the point, and in any event can't be accurately calculated until this is over. The bottom line for me is that governments, businesses and health organizations are all taking this very seriously. That's enough for me to take it seriously too.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

His comment was about the global death rate of cases, in which the person had either died or recovered. People misunderstood this to mean the global death rate of all cases. Those are two different things.


Our experiences seem to vastly differ. I don't think countering misinformation, partial truths and bad science counts as being actively angry. I count it as being actively awesome. It's one thing to think that current measures are overblown, but quite another if you're trying to back it up with easily disprovable misinformation. I'm sure some people might classify me as panicking and being overly cautious but so far my preparedness has been an extra milk carton and canceling a minor trip to see my aged relatives.

And that level of preparedness seems to be the level of preparedness of most people. I literally met one person that seemed to not care and at most people said it was overblown and as I said, they all probably took some precautions. There are some people that think everyone should just stay holed up in their house but people still have to make a living. So beyond doing that most people are doing what they could. Adding fear is not going to help.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Arguing about the death rate sort of misses the point, and in any event can't be accurately calculated until this is over. The bottom line for me is that governments, businesses and health organizations are all taking this very seriously. That's enough for me to take it seriously too.

And most people are taking this seriously, but fanning the flames of panic isn't helping.

 

[Doctyl]

Dude, H1N1 did not have anywhere near the media hype and panic we are seeing today. Not even remotely close. Also your numbers are incorrect. H1N1 killed anywhere from 150k-400k world wide. The 18,000 you cited were approximate US deaths.

I’m not knocking severity here, but this is full blown media driven panic and there’s an underlying reason. I’m just not sure what it is........well I have my theories, but it can’t be proven.

The 18k number was from the WHO in 2010 using confirmed cases and deaths

WHO | Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 100


Yes the CDC has estimated the deaths to be far more, but those are based on projections and models.
First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration | CDC

Now a real fear monger would look at this and say this whole COVID thing is about to get a whole lot worse if we’re assuming there are mass amounts of people who are undiagnosed.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

The 18k number was from the WHO in 2010 using confirmed cases and deaths

WHO | Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 100


Yes the CDC has estimated the deaths to be far more, but those are based on projections and models.
First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration | CDC

Now a real fear monger would look at this and say this whole COVID thing is about to get a whole lot worse if we’re assuming there are mass amounts of people who are undiagnosed.

You know by saying "a real fear monger would..." you're not minimizing your fear-mongering.

 

[Doctyl]

You know by saying "a real fear monger would..." you're minimizing your fear-mongering.

Fear mongering is a disgusting tactic that I want no part of.

I just want to be as accurate as possible, even if that means pointing out that things aren’t sunshine and rainbows at the moment. Sure it’s comforting to say this is a media conspiracy and everything will be fine it’s just a flu. The problem is that is dangerous misinformation and could lead to further spread of this virus. The current precautions being taken by the government are to avoid a situation like what’s happening in Italy.

part of being accurate is also accepting criticism if I’m inaccurate about something. I appreciated being told to look further into the swine flu numbers. If I’m wrong about anything here, I would appreciate a thought out response. Calling me a fear monger and saying the death rates wrong are responses that are completely missing the point on what I’m trying to say.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Fear mongering is a disgusting tactic that I want no part of.

I just want to be as accurate as possible, even if that means pointing out that things aren’t sunshine and rainbows at the moment. Sure it’s comforting to say this is a media conspiracy and everything will be fine it’s just a flu. The problem is that is dangerous misinformation and could lead to further spread of this virus. The current precautions being taken by the government are to avoid a situation like what’s happening in Italy.

part of being accurate is also accepting criticism if I’m inaccurate about something. I appreciated being told to look further into the swine flu numbers. If I’m wrong about anything here, I would appreciate a thought out response. Calling me a fear monger and saying the death rates wrong are responses that are completely missing the point on what I’m trying to say.

I think the point is that drastic measures are already being taken by governments and people voluntarily and involuntarily are taking precautions.