OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

[True Blue]

Protecting ~102 to 181 million people sounds like a great plan, how exactly we do that, I have not seen any good answers. Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.

There is absolutely no good answer at all. You are at the point (not arriving at it IMO, already there) where you need to allow people to decide what risks they are willing to take and what risks they are not. The one no brainer is to better protect the nursing homes and assisted living facilities. And that means that Cuomo's utterly idiotic order to force nursing homes to take Covid patients cannot be allowed. He is walking it back now, but so much suffering had to happen because of it. Anyway, you start with that protection. The people who are not in such facilities and have pre-existing conditions should have the right to work from home for however they deem. Aside from that, it is time to let people make decisions for themselves about what they are or are not willing to do.

 

[True Blue]

Complete hysteria in LA extending stay-at-home until August. Wow.

I feel like we're caught between "that's it humanity is over, go home" and actively rooting for the virus.

No middle ground, no common sense being applied.

There is absolutely no common sense. This also may well end the entertainment industry.

Things like this are what can cause civil unrest.

 

[Off Sides]

Whilst some countries such as the Netherlands have already established laws governing the working from home, the United States labor laws do not currently include a right to work from home. In other words, it is entirely at the discretion of the employer to permit flexible working or home working. A home office law as such does not exist. However, under the Family Medical Leave Act (FMLA), some employees with special medical conditions or those closely caring for others with medical conditions may be able to apply to work from home.

Right to work from home

So now let’s get to the crux of it. Where are the personal dangers from reopening?
When you think of outbreak clusters, what are the big ones that come to mind? Most people would say cruise ships. But you would be wrong. Ship outbreaks, while concerning, don’t land in the top 50 outbreaks to date.

Ignoring the terrible outbreaks in nursing homes, we find that the biggest outbreaks are in prisons, religious ceremonies, and workplaces, such as meat packing facilities and call centers. Any environment that is enclosed, with poor air circulation and high density of people, spells trouble.
Some of the biggest super-spreading events are:

• Meat packing: In meat processing plants, densely packed workers must communicate to one another amidst the deafening drum of industrial machinery and a cold-room virus-preserving environment. There are now outbreaks in 115 facilities across 23 states, 5000+ workers infected, with 20 dead. (ref)
• Weddings, funerals, birthdays: 10% of early spreading events
• Business networking: Face-to-face business networking like the Biogen Conference in Boston in late February.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

The bill provides free coronavirus screening, paid leave and enhanced unemployment insurance benefits for some people affected by COVID-19.

“This new law does not provide a new right to work from home,” David Barron, labor and employment attorney with Cozen O’Connor, explains to CNBC Make It. However, it does extend paid leave for those impacted by coronavirus.

Can you be fired for working from home?

 

[Machinehead]

I'm looking at a bunch of data and I think @Ola was correct that there's a natural progression to this. The outbreaks go up and come down no matter what the reaction of the region is. And they seem to be subsiding globally, in general.

If you compare New York and Florida, a state in shutdown vs a state where comparatively little was done, both are going down. The difference is that Florida is floating down whereas New York is shooting down.

Exactly the same for Italy vs Sweden, respectively.

This tells me that social distancing does not prevent the infection or actively cause it to come down. It's an accelerant -- you come down quicker.

A quicker decline in a state of massive outbreak does save lives and New York was at a point where we couldn't afford a gradual decline, so I understand why we did it. But it also leads me to the conclusion, if there are subsequent waves of this thing still to come, that complete shutdown may not be necessary if you're smart.

Also the caveat here is that you don't just go back to normal. Gatherings of thousands and other obvious dangers need to be avoided until this is definitively over.

The question we need to answer for a potential second wave is this: how do we not get to the point where a shutdown is required to begin with?

 

[eco's bones]

I think in the past few decades the labor market has shown that it can be very brutal in removing redundant, superfluous and meaningless jobs from the workforce. Now if you're talking about government jobs ...

It was jobs in general--Graeber wasn't talking so much about government jobs.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Can’t have it both ways people. Spend a month plus bashing the Government for being slow and then do a 180 and claim social distancing does not prevent the infection.

The Harvard paper spelled it all out while many predicted a slow down with longer light hours and warmer weather. Hope to be wrong but the autumn scares me.

 

[NYR Viper]

I'm looking at a bunch of data and I think @Ola was correct that there's a natural progression to this. The outbreaks go up and come down no matter what the reaction of the region is. And they seem to be subsiding globally, in general.

If you compare New York and Florida, a state in shutdown vs a state where comparatively little was done, both are going down. The difference is that Florida is floating down whereas New York is shooting down.

Exactly the same for Italy vs Sweden, respectively.

This tells me that social distancing does not prevent the infection or actively cause it to come down. It's an accelerant -- you come down quicker.

A quicker decline in a state of massive outbreak does save lives and New York was at a point where we couldn't afford a gradual decline, so I understand why we did it. But it also leads me to the conclusion, if there are subsequent waves of this thing still to come, that complete shutdown may not be necessary if you're smart.

Also the caveat here is that you don't just go back to normal. Gatherings of thousands and other obvious dangers need to be avoided until this is definitively over.

The question we need to answer for a potential second wave is this: how do we not get to the point where a shutdown is required to begin with?

So what you're saying is that the state of Florida actually handled this well

 

[Machinehead]

Can’t have it both ways people. Spend a month plus bashing the Government for being slow and then do a 180 and claim social distancing does not prevent the infection.

The Harvard paper spelled it all out while many predicted a slow down with longer light hours and warmer weather. Hope to be wrong but the autumn scares me.

Why would these things be mutually exclusive?

 

[Machinehead]

So what you're saying is that the state of Florida actually handled this well

If the IMHE projections hold up, they're fine, yeah.

It's a warm state where a lot of the big draws are outdoors and they never really had the massive outbreak like in the Northeast or the West Coast.

A lot of the vitriol against Florida has been about the beaches being open but the beaches are fine. The virus can't swim and sand is an absolutely brutal surface to live on: it's hot and granular. The other issue with Florida has been spring breakers going down there who then, in turn, potentially take the virus back to states that are not Florida and I understand the argument there.

 

[sbjnyc]

It was jobs in general--Graeber wasn't talking so much about government jobs.

To paraphrase a famous unemployed beer drinker, it's a dog eat dog world and we're all wearing milkbone underwear. If a job doesn't provide value to a company that job won't exist for long.

 

[eco's bones]

To paraphrase a famous unemployed beer drinker, it's a dog eat dog world and we're all wearing milkbone underwear. If a job doesn't provide value to a company that job won't exist for long.

Well you obviously haven't read the book. Graeber is not exactly an unknown either. He conducted 100's of interviews with people who reached out to him talking about their working lives and the frustrations stemming from. He admitted to being short on solutions and even to having reservations about UBI but he also saw positives. For instance it gives everyone from the homeless on up a starting point to work from.

 

[ponytrekker]

I'm not sure there are going to be a ton of those, but I could see the older population that is still in NYC escalate their transition out of those areas to less dense areas of the country, especially with moving to places like Florida, Arizona, and Texas.

The city areas are going to get even younger, not likely the other way around.

Nah, the bidding has started already. 1. I am getting inquiries from City people about life in Westchester. 2. Reports of bidding escalation on homes already for sale in my hood. 3. As inaccurate as it is, the Zillow price on my house has jumped a hundred grand this week

 

[ponytrekker]

I remember walking to the store the day after the stay-at-home order went to 100% of non-essential workers and it was like a ghost town. No one out walking around. For the past few weeks my neighborhood has more or less been back to normal albeit with most people wearing masks. Even seemed like there was a decent amount of traffic in and out of the city on the radio this morning.

I have been to Sam's Club three times since the pandemic started. First time, there was an extensive line that took forever, got in, the place looked like it had been ransacked; second time there was a line, no one in the store and was a decent supply of stuff so in and out in 25 minutes. Today there was no line, looked like the store was as crowded as a normal day and there was everything except toilet paper and some types of chicken. Every time mask usage was 100%.

 

[HFBS]

This also may well end the entertainment industry.

A paltry silver lining.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Why would these things be mutually exclusive?

skipped over the Harvard portion? The other is self explanatory.

 

[will1066]

How about that street fight in Richmond, Va., between a shirtless man and a Jeff Goldblum lookalike who uses martial arts? Crazy times, people!

 

[nyr2k2]

I was in downtown Leesburg (VA) to pick up food on Sunday. Decent amount of people walking around the streets. Very few masks, which was discouraging. All the food service workers were masked and gloved.

I was in downtown Frederick (MD) a few days before. Again, not that many people, but still not many people wearing masks. Maybe 75-25 mask-less vs masked. Again, not the greatest thing.

Northern Virginia, where Leesburg is, has basically at the county level said they weren't ready to go into the reopening phase that Gov. Northam said they could. Maryland is also doing the slow reopening as Gov. Hogan said they could a couple days ago, but not Montgomery (where I lived after moving from Long Island), Prince George's, Baltimore City and County, and Frederick (where I live now). Maybe some others. Basically the Eastern Shore and Western MD are good, everyone else is being cautious and Montgomery and PGC are still getting worse.

DC is still a mess, they're not doing anything anytime soon. Since I work in DC, and also have to utilize the MARC and Metro trains which are on reduced service and won't be back to full service for likely months, I would guess I'm home for another 2 months. My union will also NOT be at the forefront of a reopening--we will watch what happens everywhere else and only then reopen.

Being quarantined sucks, but I'm glad my wife and I still have our jobs. And my house and yard have never looked better.

 

[Machinehead]

skipped over the Harvard portion? The other is self explanatory.

It was a simple question.

 

[GordonGecko]

They found a link with Vitamin D and survival of COVID-19. Apparently the lower your levels of vitamin D the worse you will do with the coronavirus

 

[bl02]

They found a link with Vitamin D and survival of COVID-19. Apparently the lower your levels of vitamin D the worse you will do with the coronavirus

A few laps around your block in the sunshine could do a world of good! Preferably a power walk for 15-30 minutes

 

[SkinneeJ]

Complete hysteria in LA extending stay-at-home until August. Wow.

I feel like we're caught between "that's it humanity is over, go home" and actively rooting for the virus.

No middle ground, no common sense being applied.

Things are actually starting to open up out here in LA. All businesses and restaurants can do curbside pickup. Beaches and trails are finally open again. They’re talking about opening schools in late July.

I think the county’s extension of the order is more of a legal maneuver for them to remain in control of how things reopen. And then if they need to close back down.

As for the entertainment industry, I saw my friend who is a freelance cinematographer on my street last night. He had a new job delivering weed because film work had disappeared. He was excited about finally having health insurance...

 

[NYSPORTS]

They found a link with Vitamin D and survival of COVID-19. Apparently the lower your levels of vitamin D the worse you will do with the coronavirus

mentioned that earlier and makes me wonder if those in FLA have higher levels of Vitamin D due to the excess sunshine.

For the record, most all men with Prostate cancer are low in Vitamin D as well as women with breast cancer. Keep those levels high. Especially when the temp drops and the days get shorter. We hide from the cold and don’t get enough sun so the Vitamin D can drop.

 

[Machinehead]

Things are actually starting to open up out here in LA. All businesses and restaurants can do curbside pickup. Beaches and trails are finally open again. They’re talking about opening schools in late July.

I think the county’s extension of the order is more of a legal maneuver for them to remain in control of how things reopen. And then if they need to close back down.

As for the entertainment industry, I saw my friend who is a freelance cinematographer on my street last night. He had a new job delivering weed because film work had disappeared. He was excited about finally having health insurance...

This is good to hear.

 

[Barnaby]

I wasn't being cavalier about it. I just think unless you never leave your house in perpetuity or are not in contact with any human being forever, the odds of getting Covid eventually from someone somewhere is, I think, inevitable.

Are you personally hanging out with a few close friends occasionally now? I live in S. Fl. and I haven't in 7 weeks but wonder what the parameters are and when it will be ok too.

Maybe... I’m not sure. I work in a Detective division with 25 guys. We all constantly deal with cops who go to almost every aided case. We don’t wear masks for that. I investigate cases all the time dealing with civilians - I try to wear a mask but not always. Not everyone is getting it.

 

[Fireonk]

So my parents went and got the antibody test. Mom came back positive, dad came back negative. Weird....