OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

[ponytrekker]

I think that new outbreaks will not necessarily be as bad as the first. I believe so for 3 reasons. 1) We know which portion of the population is the most negatively affected by this and actions will need to be done in accordance at those facilities and for those at home living with such a person. 2) People will have already had it and gotten over it by then (anti bodies), if they were not asymptomatic to begin with. 3) Hospitals and their staff will be much better prepared for this (estabishment of Covid wings when the time comes, not misdiagnosing something as the regular flu as was being done in beginning).

The data also looks good as far as what has been happening. For the last several weeks, the key numbers all declined. This is despite the fact that in NYC, people HAVE been out and about as the weather has gotten nicer. The new cases, as Cuomo said, are mostly from people who have been staying at home. So as more people come out, and the amount of new cases continues to drop, that has to be a positive. That also tells me that more people are asymptomatic than we know.

Also, hopefully most intelligent people will wear masks. I know that's not saying much but it's better than early March.

 

[Metranger]

Be careful but everyone's gonna get the Virus antigens. The only option people have is to pick the time they get it.

 

[Chaels Arms]

For them to shut down the subway for the first time ever, they had to have some pretty nasty virus findings. I am thinking my straphanging days are over. Team work-from-home until they fire me.

What I am really interested in, mainly in terms of long-term impact on how the economy functions, is the extent to which companies and employers adopt "work from home" as a permanent practice. Twitter has already done so. Included in Cuomo's directives is a mandate to continue allowing any employees who can work from home continue to do so even after that business is phased in. At my company that is pretty much every single employee. All of our work can be done from home. I believe it is the same way for most of the companies in my building.

Obviously there are many workers who need to physically be on location to do their work. But really, the average office worker who is sitting at a computer the entire day in an office in Manhattan can probably do 90-100% of their work from home. I have had a belief for a few years now that the midtown Manhattan office space is going obsolete for a lot of businesses. The main justification has always been "client meetings" but most younger people would much rather conduct their business remotely anyway in my experience. Technology advancing plus insane costs for office space in Manhattan should be forcing a lot of business owners and decision makers to consider altering their thinking.

 

[ponytrekker]

Be careful but everyone's gonna get the Virus antigens. The only option people have is to pick the time they get it.

Yeah but careful what you wish for. They still don't know what the long term effects are. Recruits with COVID-19 history will be rejected by military, says memo

 

[ponytrekker]

Obviously there are many workers who need to physically be on location to do their work.

My job pre-virus was theoretically 70% remote with clients or in court and 30% in the office, because that's how they know how to check up on people. If you are not in the office you don't exist. I can't tell you how many times, I got the "optics" email either straight up or of the passive aggressive type. Whether it's the "There's no one in the office:" where you read it on a red-eye back from handling a case in SF or it's the "Hey, remember that case you handled in 2005? I came around to ask you about it."

Unfortunately I can see the remote work coming back but I am done with the office check ups.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I'm not sure what to make of what the f*** LA is doing.

L.A. County could keep stay-at-home orders in place well into summer, depending on conditions

Los Angeles County’s stay-at-home orders will “with all certainty” be extended for the next three months, county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer acknowledged during a Board of Supervisors meeting Tuesday.

Extending the order for another THREE months????

Georgia's phased reopening has been pretty successful so far and the asshats in Los Angeles is waiting three more months before even considering that????

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-georgia-model-11588967492

 

[Metranger]

Yeah but careful what you wish for. They still don't know what the long term effects are. Recruits with COVID-19 history will be rejected by military, says memo

I wasn't being cavalier about it. I just think unless you never leave your house in perpetuity or are not in contact with any human being forever, the odds of getting Covid eventually from someone somewhere is, I think, inevitable.

Are you personally hanging out with a few close friends occasionally now? I live in S. Fl. and I haven't in 7 weeks but wonder what the parameters are and when it will be ok too.

 

[True Blue]

The outcomes from other, even similar viruses, fundamentally doesn't tell you anything about this one.

I am not saying it does. My point was that I believe that once you let people out, it is natural to expect to have more cases and that also like other viruses this one will have multiple peaks and valleys.

 

[Tawnos]

I am not saying it does. My point was that I believe that once you let people out, it is natural to expect to have more cases and that also like other viruses this one will have multiple peaks and valleys.

.... so you are saying it does?

 

[Crease]

I'm not sure what to make of what the f*** LA is doing.

L.A. County could keep stay-at-home orders in place well into summer, depending on conditions

Extending the order for another THREE months????

Georgia's phased reopening has been pretty successful so far and the asshats in Los Angeles is waiting three more months before even considering that????

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-georgia-model-11588967492

Los Angeles' current stay at home order expires on May 15. They're talking about extending it 90 days with the expectation that they'll be able to slowly lift various restrictions over that time period.

Also, there's a certain amount of branding at play here. Los Angeles is calling it a "stay at home" order but with many exceptions. LA is doing outdoor spaces and curbside/appointment retail, for example. Other jurisdictions are "open" but with many official and unofficial restrictions.

 

[True Blue]

Also, hopefully most intelligent people will wear masks. I know that's not saying much but it's better than early March.

Some will, some won't. Some places may well require it to entrance.

But there are places where that just does not work. You may enter a bar or restaurant wearing a mask, but clearly it cannot stay on. You cannot really do a full on workout with it on either. Breathing in them is very hard. Nor are you going to sit on a beach with a mask on your face. Nor is day care going to function that way. Or school sports. And both things are necessary.

I just spoke to a co-worker that I have not seen in a long time. He was in Italy in early Jan and got it. Came back, guaranteed himself for 8 days and then he and his family decided that was enough. He basically got the flu and would get sweats at night pretty badly. No real other symptoms. Slept next to his wife, hugged and kissed his kids. Neither the wife nor the kids have experience anything at all. Clearly they had to get infected.

Spoke to several people that have also been seeing friends and have allowed their kids to see friends. I am not saying that these examples are ones to follow, I am just saying that most people and most businesses can probably decide on their own where and when to wear masks. I am not at all diminishing wearing them, but I think that society as a whole can make a decision.

Clearly if entering a nursing home or dealing with someone with pre-existing conditions necessitates some things. So too do when you deal with elderly. Otherwise, I think that by and large, society can and should make those judgments, and that includes personal and professional.

 

[True Blue]

.... so you are saying it does?

I am saying that it is never going to go away, IMO. I think that it will always be out there and may not come at the same time as the cold and flu season but will certainly have a season.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Los Angeles' current stay at home order expires on May 15. They're talking about extending it 90 days with the expectation that they'll be able to slowly lift various restrictions over that time period.

Also, there's a certain amount of branding at play here. Los Angeles is calling it a "stay at home" order but with many exceptions. LA is doing outdoor spaces and curbside/appointment retail, for example. Other jurisdictions are "open" but with many official and unofficial restrictions.

I do agree and but at the same time it is what I don't understand. Why not just extend it another 30 days and see where you are then?

 

[True Blue]

What I am really interested in, mainly in terms of long-term impact on how the economy functions, is the extent to which companies and employers adopt "work from home" as a permanent practice. Twitter has already done so. Included in Cuomo's directives is a mandate to continue allowing any employees who can work from home continue to do so even after that business is phased in. At my company that is pretty much every single employee. All of our work can be done from home. I believe it is the same way for most of the companies in my building.

Obviously there are many workers who need to physically be on location to do their work. But really, the average office worker who is sitting at a computer the entire day in an office in Manhattan can probably do 90-100% of their work from home. I have had a belief for a few years now that the midtown Manhattan office space is going obsolete for a lot of businesses. The main justification has always been "client meetings" but most younger people would much rather conduct their business remotely anyway in my experience. Technology advancing plus insane costs for office space in Manhattan should be forcing a lot of business owners and decision makers to consider altering their thinking.

I have no doubt that some people will continue to work from home. But speaking only for myself, that is pretty I am much more productive at office. Very few people have complete home offices. Sitting at at a desk with a laptop or a whole computer, is not really the same thing as working from an office with multiple computer screens.

Speaking specifically for Manhattan, so much of the economy depends on people working from offices so that they go and spend the money in the local economy which is comprised of all of the small businesses around there. If you simply cut off any commuters from NJ or CT and force them to stay at home, you have just significantly harmed the Manhattan economy. My going to a bar after work for drinks is based on me being in mid-town. If I lived in NJ or CT, I would certainly not go in just for an hours worth of drinks.

It is one thing to allow your workers to work from home, it is another to force it on them all together. Human beings also need human conversation and contact.

I have no doubt that some people will absolutely choose to work from home. But there are plenty of that do not want to. Cuomo's mandates are all well and good for those that want it. But I know more than enough people who have had it with working in the pajamas.

 

[True Blue]

Los Angeles' current stay at home order expires on May 15. They're talking about extending it 90 days with the expectation that they'll be able to slowly lift various restrictions over that time period.

Also, there's a certain amount of branding at play here. Los Angeles is calling it a "stay at home" order but with many exceptions. LA is doing outdoor spaces and curbside/appointment retail, for example. Other jurisdictions are "open" but with many official and unofficial restrictions.

Extending it 3 more months would kill off a good portion of the entertainment industry, alongside any small businesses who support it. And something like 1 out of every 5 people in LA works in entertainment.

 

[ponytrekker]

Some will, some won't. Some places may well require it to entrance.

But there are places where that just does not work. You may enter a bar or restaurant wearing a mask, but clearly it cannot stay on. You cannot really do a full on workout with it on either. Breathing in them is very hard. Nor are you going to sit on a beach with a mask on your face. Nor is day care going to function that way. Or school sports. And both things are necessary. .

Look at the countries where masks are part of the culture. What do their infection and mortality rates look like? Hint -- they are very, very, very, low compared to the US. And this is why I am betting on zero chance of there being a game at MSG in 20-21.

 

[ponytrekker]

I have no doubt that some people will continue to work from home. But speaking only for myself, that is pretty I am much more productive at office. Very few people have complete home offices. Sitting at at a desk with a laptop or a whole computer, is not really the same thing as working from an office with multiple computer screens.

Speaking specifically for Manhattan, so much of the economy depends on people working from offices so that they go and spend the money in the local economy which is comprised of all of the small businesses around there. If you simply cut off any commuters from NJ or CT and force them to stay at home, you have just significantly harmed the Manhattan economy. My going to a bar after work for drinks is based on me being in mid-town. If I lived in NJ or CT, I would certainly not go in just for an hours worth of drinks.

It is one thing to allow your workers to work from home, it is another to force it on them all together. Human beings also need human conversation and contact.

I have no doubt that some people will absolutely choose to work from home. But there are plenty of that do not want to. Cuomo's mandates are all well and good for those that want it. But I know more than enough people who have had it with working in the pajamas.

I have the exact opposite reaction. I really don't care if I ever see anyone I worked with in person again.

 

[True Blue]

I have the exact opposite reaction. I really don't care if I ever see anyone I worked with in person again.

That is fine and you are certainly allowed to feel so. I guarantee that you are not alone in this. But I also guarantee that there are many that feel the complete opposite of you.

Look at the countries where masks are part of the culture. What do their infection and mortality rates look like? Hint -- they are very, very, very, low compared to the US. And this is why I am betting on zero chance of there being a game at MSG in 20-21.

The overall mortality rate is still low and I say this because one death due to this is too much and every life is important. And when one throws out mortality rates, again it should include context. The mortality rate is overwhelmingly in a certain specific portion of the population. The mortality numbers in NYC are overwhelmingly in those that are 65+. When you also factor in those that have preexisting conditions the numbers become even more so. When you look at the numbers nationwide, they tell a similar story.

 

[Off Sides]

The population of those 65+ or those of any age who have preexisting conditions is probably a pretty lot of people.

Of those who recover, do they all recover to 100% or do some end up with lasting damage to their body?

Nationwide it sure seems like a lot of context is being left out if we are only looking at mortality rates of those who were under 65 and / or had zero preexisting conditions.

 

[Leonardo87]

 

[ponytrekker]

The population of those 65+ or those of any age who have preexisting conditions is probably a pretty lot of people.

Facts About Hypertension | cdc.gov Half of America has hypertension

Of those who recover, do they all recover to 100% or do some end up with lasting damage to their body?

They don't know the long term effects yet but the military was saying "hard pass" until a day ago.

COVID-19 Could Disqualify You From the Military | Coronavirus

 

[Off Sides]

Facts About Hypertension | cdc.gov Half of America has hypertension

They don't know the long term effects yet but the military was saying "hard pass" until a day ago.

COVID-19 Could Disqualify You From the Military | Coronavirus

How Many Adults Are at Risk of Serious Illness If Infected with Coronavirus? Updated Data

43% of U.S. Households Report Preexisting Conditions

At Risk: Pre-Existing Conditions Could Affect 1 in 2 Americans: | CMS

United States Demographic Statistics

 

[Metranger]

 

[sbjnyc]

Look at the countries where masks are part of the culture. What do their infection and mortality rates look like? Hint -- they are very, very, very, low compared to the US. And this is why I am betting on zero chance of there being a game at MSG in 20-21.

Did you see the news item where they were testing a drone disinfecting the seats at MSG? I can't find anything about it but I saw it on one of the news channels I think. I think they will come up with a variety of devices to reduce pathogens like drones and narrowband UV emitters (how many will be actually effective vs psychologically effective will remain unknown). Perhaps masks will replace phone covers as a means of making a fashion statement. In other news, Revlon notes that lipstick sales tank for the 3rd straight quarter.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I think we'll start to see more big business start to majorly influence what happens in terms of areas "reopening"

Musk bullied Fremont into allowing him to open Tesla's factory back up, I don't think it will be as brash as he did it, but I could see major corporations flexing their muscles to get things moving.

Almost assuredly every major studio in LA is talking to the officials there to see how soon they can get back to production. I'd bet that Disney has been working directly with Orlando/Florida officials to get that moving