OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

[The Crypto Guy]

You can tell people are done with this, the roads are completely packed again. When it first started they were empty.

 

[Off Sides]

The UV light thing is cool and hopefully they can figure it out.

Could a New Ultraviolet Technology Fight the Spread of Coronavirus? | Columbia News

 

[NYSPORTS]

You can tell people are done with this, the roads are completely packed again. When it first started they were empty.

it’s a bomb in the making.

 

[eco's bones]

The population of those 65+ or those of any age who have preexisting conditions is probably a pretty lot of people.

Of those who recover, do they all recover to 100% or do some end up with lasting damage to their body?

Nationwide it sure seems like a lot of context is being left out if we are only looking at mortality rates of those who were under 65 and / or had zero preexisting conditions.

Of those who are intubated and survive a lot of them have lung damage or loss of lung capacity. As for others it certainly is going to make it worse for some with a preexisting or multiple preexisting conditions.

Speaking of older people and context I was reading an article today that in the United Kingdom for the last several years deaths of people in nursing homes were pretty steady at around 8000 for every April. This year it shot up to 26,000 with the govt. beancounters accounting 8000 of those to Covid-19. So 18,000 died of other causes? A lot of Brits are really suspicious about this count and suspect a lot more Covid deaths.

 

[Off Sides]

Of those who are intubated and survive a lot of them have lung damage or loss of lung capacity. As for others it certainly is going to make it worse for some with a preexisting or multiple preexisting conditions.

Speaking of older people and context I was reading an article today that in the United Kingdom for the last several years deaths of people in nursing homes were pretty steady at around 8000 for every April. This year it shot up to 26,000 with the govt. beancounters accounting 8000 of those to Covid-19. So 18,000 died of other causes? A lot of Brits are really suspicious about this count and suspect a lot more Covid deaths.

So there is a large population of people who are older than 65, also a large population with preexisting conditions of any age, and other than mortality there are other possible complications?

It is almost like that would be important context within any discussion about how to balance public heath with the economy.

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]

 

[eco's bones]

So there is a large population of people who are older than 65, also a large population with preexisting conditions of any age, and other than mortality there are other possible complications?

It is almost like that would be important context within any discussion about how to balance public heath with the economy.

Yes, of course. There are three parts to this and pretty much all the politicians across the board failed on the first part in some way and some more significantly than others. The first part was the January, February, early March part where they were all caught with their pants down. The second part is going on right now and I think Cuomo has done a pretty good job here. He's consistently on message and he's out every day delivering it and basically things in NYS are getting better and better and hopefully we'll be able to put out the small fires that will keep us from a second wave. The third part is what happens when this is all over. It's not just rebuilding what needs rebuilding--it's also not leaving people behind which kind of happened after the 2008 bailout. We're not there yet but IMO someone who tells you that older people were just going to die anyway is the kind of person that will leave other people behind too when this is over.

Somewhat off tangent but generally speaking sooner or later if you live to be old enough you're going to have prescriptions for this or prescriptions for that. Some people have a lot. But even younger people have heart problems particularly if they're overweight and keeping in mind Kaapo Kaako has some issues including diabetes I believe...so even some younger athletes can have issues. Just on that fact by the way I wouldn't want Finland to try Sweden's herd immunity project. Maybe he would go through a dose of the virus with flying colors--I'd rather not find out though. But if you know people with real health issues then you would have to be concerned about them. My wife's sister beat off cancer a couple years ago but it took a lot out of her--she's in her mid-50's tires quickly and that will stay with her the rest of her life. She will be blind within the next few years. My younger brother out in Washington state has survived cancer twice. If he were to get it I think he would be in trouble. So there are people who need to take a lot of care.

 

[Leonardo87]

 

[Fireonk]

Random policy idea. Would it make sense to focus on social security in any future stimulus plan? Allow full social security benefits at an earlier age to allow people that are in the high risk demographic to retire earlier than expected and not be forced to return to the work force right now? Especially now that a lot of people close to that age just took a big hit to their retirement accounts. Would also open up some jobs for all the currently unemployed that might not still have their jobs waiting for them.

 

[ponytrekker]

Random policy idea. Would it make sense to focus on social security in any future stimulus plan? Allow full social security benefits at an earlier age to allow people that are in the high risk demographic to retire earlier than expected and not be forced to return to the work force right now? Especially now that a lot of people close to that age just took a big hit to their retirement accounts. Would also open up some jobs for all the currently unemployed that might not still have their jobs waiting for them.

Yes, please. That and medicare early and goodbye workforce. Nasty 401k hit between Feb. and March but have managed to rehabilitate my 401k by about half of the loss by buying a bunch of medical stocks and Clorox and riding the waves.

What I really need to do is sit tight and wait for the mass of hipsters to migrate from Brooklyn and Manhattan to Westchester, and let the bidding war for my house commence.

 

[sbjnyc]

Random policy idea. Would it make sense to focus on social security in any future stimulus plan? Allow full social security benefits at an earlier age to allow people that are in the high risk demographic to retire earlier than expected and not be forced to return to the work force right now? Especially now that a lot of people close to that age just took a big hit to their retirement accounts. Would also open up some jobs for all the currently unemployed that might not still have their jobs waiting for them.

I doubt there is a measurable difference in mortality rate between ages 65 and 67 wrt to this disease. In any event I don't see 65 year olds who commute (who must be reasonably healthy) as being a separate risk class for covid-19. Also, the unemployed in general do not have the same skill set as 65 year olds.

 

[Machinehead]

Don't forget to wash your hands today.

Apex hand sanitizer lathers up really nicely.

 

[JimmyG89]

wait for the mass of hipsters to migrate from Brooklyn and Manhattan to Westchester, and let the bidding war for my house commence.

I'm not sure there are going to be a ton of those, but I could see the older population that is still in NYC escalate their transition out of those areas to less dense areas of the country, especially with moving to places like Florida, Arizona, and Texas.

The city areas are going to get even younger, not likely the other way around.

 

[Fireonk]

I doubt there is a measurable difference in mortality rate between ages 65 and 67 wrt to this disease. In any event I don't see 65 year olds who commute (who must be reasonably healthy) as being a separate risk class for covid-19. Also, the unemployed in general do not have the same skill set as 65 year olds.

Well I was more referring to instead of taking partial retirement at 62, bumping that up to full benefits. And yes, there isn't a significant difference in mortality at those ages, my main concept was getting as many people in that whole age bracket as possible out of being forced to return to work when they are at risk.

You are correct about different skill sets, but it should have a ripple effect. 50 year old takes the recently departed 64 year old's job, 35 year old takes the 50 year olds, and open spot where the 35 year old used to be.

I have nothing to back this up, just thinking out loud.

 

[sbjnyc]

Well I was more referring to instead of taking partial retirement at 62, bumping that up to full benefits. And yes, there isn't a significant difference in mortality at those ages, my main concept was getting as many people in that whole age bracket as possible out of being forced to return to work when they are at risk.

You are correct about different skill sets, but it should have a ripple effect. 50 year old takes the recently departed 64 year old's job, 35 year old takes the 50 year olds, and open spot where the 35 year old used to be.

I have nothing to back this up, just thinking out loud.

Giving full benefits at 62 is just crazy. That results in an increased monthly benefit of 30-40% for life. Someone who turns 62 this June who elects to receive benefits in July would normally receive 72% of their full benefit but if they receive 100% that's nearly a 40% increase. You'll get a lot of takers, especially as you don't actually have to retire to receive benefits.

Edit: And individuals who previously elected to receive a reduced benefit will be completely PO'd.​

 

[True Blue]

You can tell people are done with this, the roads are completely packed again. When it first started they were empty.

After I left my office, I saw the most amount of people in mid-town that I have seen in months. I used to joke with people and say that I can easily cross the street and avoid anyone coming. On 6th avenue, that was not the case.

There were also people sitting on benches at Bryant Park who were not 6 feet apart and were not wearing masks. First time in months the amount of regular people in the park outnumbered the homeless.

 

[eco's bones]

Random policy idea. Would it make sense to focus on social security in any future stimulus plan? Allow full social security benefits at an earlier age to allow people that are in the high risk demographic to retire earlier than expected and not be forced to return to the work force right now? Especially now that a lot of people close to that age just took a big hit to their retirement accounts. Would also open up some jobs for all the currently unemployed that might not still have their jobs waiting for them.

A couple/three months ago I was reading the anarcho/anthropologist David Graeber's Bullshit jobs. Among Graeber's arguments was that many jobs were redundant, superfluous and meaningless let alone not productive or at all efficient and that people working such jobs for the most part understand the lack of value and meaning their jobs have and it's not good for them either psychologically or spiritually and stressed millions and millions out. He was kind of short on solutions for this dilemma but one thing he did talk about was UBI--enough so that a person could live without working and if they wanted or needed more they could choose to work to add to their UBI.

 

[Chaels Arms]

I remember walking to the store the day after the stay-at-home order went to 100% of non-essential workers and it was like a ghost town. No one out walking around. For the past few weeks my neighborhood has more or less been back to normal albeit with most people wearing masks. Even seemed like there was a decent amount of traffic in and out of the city on the radio this morning.

 

[True Blue]

It is almost like that would be important context within any discussion about how to balance public heath with the economy.

But the mortality rate is so heavily skewed to that portion of the population that it makes sense in taking steps to protect these people and reopening the economy back up. Maybe these people and those that live with them continue to work from home and maybe nursing homes take on stricter measures.

You talk about context, but I think the context gets thrown the other way when one quotes a mortality rate without the context of how much of that rate is attributed to those that are 65 and over and those that have pre-existing conditions.

You can continue to debate opening it up, but it ultimately has to get done. Kids need to go back to school. The much venerated Fauci (btw, another one who miraculously has hair that has not moved at all) himself said that he just advises based solely on his expertise in diseases. He takes absolutely zero time in considering trade offs or what possible effects the shutdown or the isolation has on economy or people. He has said as much

 

[Chaels Arms]

Should be interesting to see what happens with Wisconsin now that they have no quarantine order in place.

 

[sbjnyc]

A couple/three months ago I was reading the anarcho/anthropologist David Graeber's Bullshit jobs. Among Graeber's arguments was that many jobs were redundant, superfluous and meaningless let alone not productive or at all efficient and that people working such jobs for the most part understand the lack of value and meaning their jobs have and it's not good for them either psychologically or spiritually and stressed millions and millions out. He was kind of short on solutions for this dilemma but one thing he did talk about was UBI--enough so that a person could live without working and if they wanted or needed more they could choose to work to add to their UBI.

I think in the past few decades the labor market has shown that it can be very brutal in removing redundant, superfluous and meaningless jobs from the workforce. Now if you're talking about government jobs ...

 

[Fireonk]

Giving full benefits at 62 is just crazy. That results in an increased monthly benefit of 30-40% for life. Someone who turns 62 this June who elects to receive benefits in July would normally receive 72% of their full benefit but if they receive 100% that's nearly a 40% increase. You'll get a lot of takers, especially as you don't actually have to retire to receive benefits.

Edit: And individuals who previously elected to receive a reduced benefit will be completely PO'd.​

Yeah, these are good points. Obviously haven't done a real analysis on this. In my head I was only thinking of adding this benefit for people if they were fully retiring, the idea being that they don't feel like they have to unsafely go back to work.

I guess people would be pissed off if they chose a reduced benefit before, but that was a financial decision they made. They generally weren't forced to choose to start taking those benefits early.

 

[Off Sides]

The number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to nearly double from 52 million in 2018 to 95 million by 2060, and the 65-and-older age group’s share of the total population will rise from 16 percent to 23 percent. [1]

Older adults are working longer. By 2018, 24 percent of men and about 16 percent of women ages 65 and older were in the labor force. These levels are projected to rise further by 2026, to 26 percent for men and 18 percent for women.

Fact Sheet: Aging in the United States – Population Reference Bureau

According to a new analysis by the Department of Health and Human Services, 50 to 129 million (19 to 50 percent of) non-elderly Americans have some type of pre-existing health condition.

At Risk: Pre-Existing Conditions Could Affect 1 in 2 Americans: | CMS

Protecting ~102 to 181 million people sounds like a great plan, how exactly we do that, I have not seen any good answers. Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.

 

[Machinehead]

Complete hysteria in LA extending stay-at-home until August. Wow.

I feel like we're caught between "that's it humanity is over, go home" and actively rooting for the virus.

No middle ground, no common sense being applied.

 

[Machinehead]

I remember walking to the store the day after the stay-at-home order went to 100% of non-essential workers and it was like a ghost town. No one out walking around. For the past few weeks my neighborhood has more or less been back to normal albeit with most people wearing masks. Even seemed like there was a decent amount of traffic in and out of the city on the radio this morning.

This seems good.