OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

[sbjnyc]

So the millions and millions of unemployed are an overreaction too? What’s the conspiracy theory being discussed? The facts on the ground are that shit loads of working people are completely f***ed right now and of course the investor class keeps on truckin.

The DJIA is divorced from reality for most people and is in no way an indicator of overall economic health. It’s basically a scoreboard for wealth transfer at this point.

You have a severe case of whataboutism. The stock markets are still down about 20% and some companies are going bankrupt so that's good news for you I guess.

The conspiracy theories I'm referring to point at millionaires and billionaires being secretly behind the market crash rebound despite the bond and stock markets being worth hundreds of trillions of dollars. My company's pension trust has about $2 billion in assets that took a large haircut. We lost several hundred million due to certain guarantees on annuities even after hedging. About 25% of all assets are held in retirement accounts but go on believing everyone with money is secretly Dick Dastardly in disguise.

 

[sbjnyc]

Meanwhile, let's stop wasting time looking for human antibodies and start rounding up all the llamas.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30494-3.pdf

 

[Synergy27]

You have a severe case of whataboutism. The stock markets are still down about 20% and some companies are going bankrupt so that's good news for you I guess.

The conspiracy theories I'm referring to point at millionaires and billionaires being secretly behind the market crash rebound despite the bond and stock markets being worth hundreds of trillions of dollars. My company's pension trust has about $2 billion in assets that took a large haircut. We lost several hundred million due to certain guarantees on annuities even after hedging. About 25% of all assets are held in retirement accounts but go on believing everyone with money is secretly Dick Dastardly in disguise.

This is reading quite a lot into what I said, but I understand why you’d take it in that direction. I don’t know who Dick Dastardly is, sounds like a nice guy, but I am not insinuating that what we are seeing now is a bunch of individual acts by nefarious players meant to destroy the powerless.

I am stating that the system as currently constructed is very clearly designed to benefit the relative few while perpetuating a myth that we’re all in this together. The idea that stock market health in some way equals prosperity for a majority in this country is downright laughable, and I am honestly just shocked that people in general continue to believe this as we go from bailout to bailout.

Everyone on your side of the fence likes to point to those sacred cow retirement accounts. First, 25% of assets is a pretty high number, I’ll grant you that, but that still means other investments outweigh them 3 to 1. Then, let’s consider what percentage of people actually have retirement accounts, and that already small 3 to 1 ratio gets even smaller when we’re trying to assess the impact on society as a whole. The stock market tells me nothing about how most people are doing, and as long as we continue to use it as the main measure, we are going to continue this march towards insane wealth inequality and wherever that inevitably leads us.

 

[sbjnyc]

This is reading quite a lot into what I said, but I understand why you’d take it in that direction. I don’t know who Dick Dastardly is, sounds like a nice guy, but I am not insinuating that what we are seeing now is a bunch of individual acts by nefarious players meant to destroy the powerless.

I am stating that the system as currently constructed is very clearly designed to benefit the relative few while perpetuating a myth that we’re all in this together. The idea that stock market health in some way equals prosperity for a majority in this country is downright laughable, and I am honestly just shocked that people in general continue to believe this as we go from bailout to bailout.

Everyone on your side of the fence likes to point to those sacred cow retirement accounts. First, 25% of assets is a pretty high number, I’ll grant you that, but that still means other investments outweigh them 3 to 1. Then, let’s consider what percentage of people actually have retirement accounts, and that already small 3 to 1 ratio gets even smaller when we’re trying to assess the impact on society as a whole. The stock market tells me nothing about how most people are doing, and as long as we continue to use it as the main measure, we are going to continue this march towards insane wealth inequality and wherever that inevitably leads us.

First of all, what do you mean by my side of the fence?

I don't think stock market=prosperity for everyone. Theres no single metric for that.What do you propose?

You asked about the stock market so I responded with what I thought and then you ranted about the unemployed. I agree with you that there's a gap here but I don't agree with your nebulous comments about how "the system as currently constructed is very clearly designed to benefit the relative few while perpetuating a myth that we’re all in this together". The stock market is not controlled by any one entity except maybe the Jews, the Illuminati or aliens depending on who you ask.

The 25% is (I think) assets specifically earmarked towards retirement, ie what in the US are qualified plans. There are assets in non-qualified plans as well. A lot of them are just personal pension plans (like the annuities I mentioned). It also doesn't include assets in life insurance or other insurance plans. The vast vast majority of assets are held by institutions. Random millionaire/billionaire has a few hundred/thousand shares of these companies but these companies have millions/billions of shares outstanding.

Global retirement assets jump 15% to $46.73 trillion – Thinking Ahead Institute

I'm sure you know who Dick Dastardly is.

 

[mas0764]

Not sure where else to put this question: is NHL.TV giving a refund because the whole season wasn’t played? Has their been any announcement about that?

 

[Irishguy42]

Not sure where else to put this question: is NHL.TV giving a refund because the whole season wasn’t played? Has their been any announcement about that?

I think all refunds are being put on hold because the season is just "suspended" right now and there will potentially be games in the future.

 

[Chaels Arms]

Lots of good information here regarding reopening: https://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/governor.ny.gov/files/atoms/files/NYForwardReopeningGuide.pdf

Each phase is supposed to last at least two weeks.

 

[Machinehead]

People gotta stop driving themselves crazy watching every little thing this virus does. Every disease has rare symptoms.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

My guess is some upstate and western New York areas will be clear to start phase one (manufacturing and construction).

NYC and LI will stay on PAUSE for another two weeks.

I can see that pause going into at least mid-late June.

 

[3rd Guy High]

I think things going back to “normal” any time this year is unlikely. If we could wrap our heads around wearing masks, distancing in public and contact tracing, sure. I haven’t seen nearly enough of that from the public as a whole to think things won’t just flare up again the second we start opening.

we’re sitting around a R0 of .8, with as close to a complete lockdown as it gets in the US. We start opening, no ones going to want to go back into lockdown. I guess we will see.

 

[Machinehead]

I can see that pause going into at least mid-late June.

Yeah but if you told me mid-June at the start, I take that

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

I think things going back to “normal” any time this year is unlikely. If we could wrap our heads around wearing masks, distancing in public and contact tracing, sure. I haven’t seen nearly enough of that from the public as a whole to think things won’t just flare up again the second we start opening.

we’re sitting around a R0 of .8, with as close to a complete lockdown as it gets in the US. We start opening, no ones going to want to go back into lockdown. I guess we will see.

How are people going to be civil and socially distance on subways? Especially going to Wall Street.

 

[Ola]

Meanwhile, let's stop wasting time looking for human antibodies and start rounding up all the llamas.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30494-3.pdf

Lol, even if they have all the answers, would they be taken serious?

Oh no, not the llama guys again, tell them to stop calling!

 

[Ola]

So newsreports coming of (a) any place in the world having eased restrictions and (b) having new cases -- must be anyone trying to avoid 'confirmation bias' worst nightmare.

 

[Irishguy42]

Would imagine NYC will be ready for Phase 1 by early June. Surrounding places earlier, probably next week.

 

[Leonardo87]

Would imagine NYC will be ready for Phase 1 by early June. Surrounding places earlier, probably next week.

I think more end of June, early July. They are talking about going into phase 1 for counties like Rockland, Orange, Putnam, and etc by end of this month. Dutchess is looking to open to phase 1 by next week. I don’t see NYC being that close yet.

Phase 2 I can re -open my office but phase 3 is when things will be a little more normal but with limits of course.

 

[True Blue]

How are people going to be civil and socially distance on subways? Especially going to Wall Street.

You do what Europe is doing. Take preventive measures by cleaning the methods of transportation. But aside from that, there is only so much you can do. Same goes with getting kids back into school.

Some of this will also be alleviated as to they extent that their job allows them to do so, will continue to work from home for the rest of their lives and some others will not go to that extreme but will take a wait and see approach. Not perfect, but a start and a way to naturally ease back in.

 

[True Blue]

So newsreports coming of (a) any place in the world having eased restrictions and (b) having new cases -- must be anyone trying to avoid 'confirmation bias' worst nightmare.

I am not sure why that is a surprise. You keep people inside isolated and then let them out, of course the amount of cases will spike. I think it is unrealistic to believe anything else. Much like it is unrealistic to believe that there will not be a return in the fall/winter. There are cold and flu seasons and they are cyclical. Why would this not be the same?

The difference is that now you can be more prepared for it and again, what the numbers are indicating is that this, while awful, is a huge problem for the elderly and the infirm. So again, that information needs to be included in data as to how you open and where the precautions always exist.

As far as NYC being closed for longer, I am not sure how that can happen. If it was a country by itself, it would be something like the world's 10th largest economy. Keeping it locked down affects NJ & CT as people commute from there. It affects the outer counties like Westchester as some commute from there. It affects businesses in other states, as that is where the supplies can be ordered from.

 

[Ola]

I am not sure why that is a surprise. You keep people inside isolated and then let them out, of course the amount of cases will spike. I think it is unrealistic to believe anything else. Much like it is unrealistic to believe that there will not be a return in the fall/winter. There are cold and flu seasons and they are cyclical. Why would this not be the same?

The difference is that now you can be more prepared for it and again, what the numbers are indicating is that this, while awful, is a huge problem for the elderly and the infirm. So again, that information needs to be included in data as to how you open and where the precautions always exist.

As far as NYC being closed for longer, I am not sure how that can happen. If it was a country by itself, it would be something like the world's 10th largest economy. Keeping it locked down affects NJ & CT as people commute from there. It affects the outer counties like Westchester as some commute from there. It affects businesses in other states, as that is where the supplies can be ordered from.

Yeah, my point was just, there are of course going to outbreaks. It says nothing that new outbreaks are reported. If those outbreaks turn out to be as bad as the first waves -- than its of course relevant and interesting.

 

[NYSPORTS]

I think more end of June, early July. They are talking about going into phase 1 for counties like Rockland, Orange, Putnam, and etc by end of this month. Dutchess is looking to open to phase 1 by next week. I don’t see NYC being that close yet.

Phase 2 I can re -open my office but phase 3 is when things will be a little more normal but with limits of course.

i agree - i think late June early July at the earliest. Of those Counties mentioned, it’s Westchester which has to get the green light before we start thinking about the City.

 

[True Blue]

Yeah, my point was just, there are of course going to outbreaks. It says nothing that new outbreaks are reported. If those outbreaks turn out to be as bad as the first waves -- than its of course relevant and interesting.

I think that new outbreaks will not necessarily be as bad as the first. I believe so for 3 reasons. 1) We know which portion of the population is the most negatively affected by this and actions will need to be done in accordance at those facilities and for those at home living with such a person. 2) People will have already had it and gotten over it by then (anti bodies), if they were not asymptomatic to begin with. 3) Hospitals and their staff will be much better prepared for this (estabishment of Covid wings when the time comes, not misdiagnosing something as the regular flu as was being done in beginning).

The data also looks good as far as what has been happening. For the last several weeks, the key numbers all declined. This is despite the fact that in NYC, people HAVE been out and about as the weather has gotten nicer. The new cases, as Cuomo said, are mostly from people who have been staying at home. So as more people come out, and the amount of new cases continues to drop, that has to be a positive. That also tells me that more people are asymptomatic than we know.

 

[Tawnos]

I am not sure why that is a surprise. You keep people inside isolated and then let them out, of course the amount of cases will spike. I think it is unrealistic to believe anything else. Much like it is unrealistic to believe that there will not be a return in the fall/winter. There are cold and flu seasons and they are cyclical. Why would this not be the same?

Yeah, there's reason to believe it *could* be cyclical, but I don't know if there's much reason to assume it would follow the same cycles as cold and flu. MERS, for example, doesn't behave the same as SARS and peaks in June. Is that mostly related to specific climate things for where most of the cases occur (Saudi Arabia)? It might be. Meanwhile, overall respiratory coronaviruses *overall* peak in January, but that doesn't actually tell us anything about the way this one will end up being. It's basically a form of gambler's fallacy. The outcomes from other, even similar viruses, fundamentally doesn't tell you anything about this one.

 

[sbjnyc]

The CPI dropped again by 0.8% in April. Even core CPI (excluding food and energy) dropped by 0.4%. This is the largest drop in core CPI since 1957 when it started being tracked.

 

[Machinehead]

Even if it is cyclical, that doesn't mean we can just go and cough on each other.

That means that smart reopening will probably work. It still has to be smart.

 

[ponytrekker]

How are people going to be civil and socially distance on subways? Especially going to Wall Street.

For them to shut down the subway for the first time ever, they had to have some pretty nasty virus findings. I am thinking my straphanging days are over. Team work-from-home until they fire me.