OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part II (READ THE OP)

[aufheben]

@SnowblindNYR Below are some words of encouragement for you. Keep your chin up, there is still a ton to be hopeful for. We're gonna get through this. Things may be different, but we will.

Dude has clearly never been to Las Vegas.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

This epidemic has proven at least one thing, that there are a lot more assholes in the country than we originally thought since all the toilet paper is gone.

I didn't need the run on TP to tell me that, lol.

 

[Leonardo87]

I didn't need the run on TP to tell me that, lol.

 

[frozenrubber]

How does this makes any sense from a numbers standpoint with the measures that are put in place right now? I think that report was with no measures. I keep saying this but the entire globe has reported 7500 deaths so far from this virus over the last 3 months. These numbers are official numbers from the WHO a/o 3/17. It's not like every one of the countries infected put measures in place right away either. We have some aggressive measures in place now and the current death toll is less than 100. I would be very surprised if the death toll in the US surpassed the 22,000 deaths that the flu caused this year let alone 7 figures.

Respectfully, I won’t speak for others, but I know no one in good conscious is wish casting any terrible figures.

Let’s do some back of envelope math:

US has population of ~330M

Using H1N1 as a baseline, 1 in 6 US citizens contracted that novel virus. And that figure is potentially low as H1N1 was positively affected by the availability of a vaccine in the 2nd wave and first wave was mitigated by a late start in Spring of 2009 (flu transmission being seasonally affected and availability of antivirals approved for flu treatment).

CDC’s current projected case fatality rate for COVID19 is 0.9%*. Taking a 1 in 6 infection rate, that is 55M. Applying 0.9% case fatality rate, that equates to 495,000 deaths.

While social distancing slows transmission, in absence of a vaccine/effective treatment, does not stop the virus. This virus shows troubling transmission capabilities by asymptomatic carriers and any waning of new cases could just as quickly loosen existing containment measures prematurely.

Will medical treatment breakthroughs happen, I pray to god yes, but there is plenty of head room for significant headcount losses in addition to the fiscal catastrophe.

While the above are over-simplications, it shows the frameworks for some of the more dire predictions/outcomes

Unknowns:

• US fatality rate; this is the most fluid and obviously hope for the lowest figure possible
• Is this specific Coronavirus transmission affected seasonally
• Re-infection; other coronavirus variants have resulted in antibodies have shown to only provide immunity for as low as 4 months, are recovered populations healed or potential for re-transmission at a future date
• Compounding effects of overwhelming an overburdened medical system

*Case Fatality Rate:
"We estimated the case-fatality risk for 2019 novel coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered."

 

[Boris Zubov]

So... this is interesting. On a call with our entire company. They are having some of our MD's present on COVID-19. One of the questions asked was "what are your thoughts on the potential that COVID-19 cases are already in the hundreds of thousands".

Their answer was unanimous and pretty simple (and knowing them personally I can assure you their political beliefs greatly vary), they think it is a crock of shit. While there are obviously undiagnosed cases and there have been some struggles with testing, if it was that bad we would be seeing a bigger stress on our healthcare system than we are currently experiencing.

It was good to get a reassuring perspective from people with no ulterior motive.

What type of business is this that you need MD's on staff?

 

[Gardner McKay]

What type of business is this that you need MD's on staff?

Small/Mid sized pharma company.

 

[Krams]

Not pretty

 

[Machinehead]

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of our top disease experts, confirmed that the situation is improving in China.

If you still don't believe that, cases are also leveling off in South Korea.

We'll have to continue to watch these developments as a model of how quickly/gradually it's safe to resume normal activities and to see what levels of reinfection exist.

 

[True Blue]

Wonder how much the market is going to jump after Donny Pump comes out to speak

You think that Trump has something to do with the market meltdown?

 

[NYSPORTS]

Not pretty

Colleague explains he has 4 friends with the virus. None have been tested yet docs say they have it. So those stats might (let’s hope) aren’t the full picture.

All say they have the cough, some difficulties in breathing (deep breaths, kinda short of breath), fever 99-100, they lost both their sensations of smell and taste, joint pain and two had what they described as very sensitive to touch (skin touch). 3 days they are feeling better than a few days ago.

sharing

 

[duhmetreE]

Not pretty

These are most likely SEVERE cases. As in its bad enough to get tested. 86% of coronavirus cases were/are asymptomatic according to a study. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)

These numbers mean nothing in giving us perspective and produce a false narrative.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Not pretty

That’s if we assume every case has been reported, which i’m sure there are at least a thousand cases so mild that they are not, maybe much much more.

This type of media reporting keeps the panic strong.

 

[Levitate]

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of our top disease experts, confirmed that the situation is improving in China.

If you still don't believe that, cases are also leveling off in South Korea.

We'll have to continue to watch these developments as a model of how quickly/gradually it's safe to resume normal activities and to see what levels of reinfection exist.

that's great but I'm still worried about the response in the US and how it's being handled and whether it's enough to slow the transmission as much as it was in those countries.

 

[FultonReed]

Btw, the key to getting seen is fever with difficult breathing especially if you’re young. I have a lung condition called sarcoidosis and even that at the start couldn’t get me tested or seen. Good luck everyone.

good to know. chest has been a bit tight lately (asthma), and when I cough, not much is being produced. was wondering what it would take to be seen, if my breathing worsened

 

[East Coast Bias]

Studies out of Italy coming now showing some areas have been able to eradicate this with aggressive testing. That follows the lessons learned from South Korea and China.

We're nowhere near where we need to be. Not close to the targets thrown out in these conferences. There's no excuse as to why we're lagging so far behind. They need to get on this, now.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

You think that Trump has something to do with the market meltdown?

He needs to stay off of TV until he has something relevant to put forth to the American people. The market meltdown would happen either way, but having a President out there with little clue and little value to add day after day is certainly spooking markets.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Respectfully, I won’t speak for others, but I know no one in good conscious is wish casting any terrible figures.

Let’s do some back of envelope math:

US has population of ~330M

Using H1N1 as a baseline, 1 in 6 US citizens contracted that novel virus. And that figure is potentially low as H1N1 was positively affected by the availability of a vaccine in the 2nd wave and first wave was mitigated by a late start in Spring of 2009 (flu transmission being seasonally affected and availability of antivirals approved for flu treatment).

CDC’s current projected case fatality rate for COVID19 is 0.9%*. Taking a 1 in 6 infection rate, that is 55M. Applying 0.9% case fatality rate, that equates to 495,000 deaths.

While social distancing slows transmission, in absence of a vaccine/effective treatment, does not stop the virus. This virus shows troubling transmission capabilities by asymptomatic carriers and any waning of new cases could just as quickly loosen existing containment measures prematurely.

Will medical treatment breakthroughs happen, I pray to god yes, but there is plenty of head room for significant headcount losses in addition to the fiscal catastrophe.

While the above are over-simplications, it shows the frameworks for some of the more dire predictions/outcomes

Unknowns:

• US fatality rate; this is the most fluid and obviously hope for the lowest figure possible
• Is this specific Coronavirus transmission affected seasonally
• Re-infection; other coronavirus variants have resulted in antibodies have shown to only provide immunity for as low as 4 months, are recovered populations healed or potential for re-transmission at a future date
• Compounding effects of overwhelming an overburdened medical system

*Case Fatality Rate:
"We estimated the case-fatality risk for 2019 novel coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered."

Respectfully, you can believe any numbers that you want to. I feel that with the current measures that are in place and the possibility that they may get even more aggressive, we will not even get close to that 495k number. WHO numbers A/O today show 7800 deaths worldwide and 79 in US.

 

[Ben Grimm]

The point is that there are not going to be enough beds or ventilators to provide for the ~10% of confirmed cases needing them, regardless of their age.

Agreed. My next door neighbor works for the CDC and my wife is a Respiratory Director at the local hospital. They both say that and there aren't enough RTs to give treatments even if we had the beds and equipment.

 

[Synergy27]

Apparently Trump is set to invoke the Defense Production Act. I’ve been waiting for this to happen. These vanilla social distancing recommendations are an ok start but unlikely to sway behavior on a large enough scale to matter. If people are going to work anyway, why not redirect them to making critically needed goods (masks, respirators, etc.) instead of nonsense consumer trinkets? I applaud this move.

 

[Krams]

 

[Levitate]

good to know. chest has been a bit tight lately (asthma), and when I cough, not much is being produced. was wondering what it would take to be seen, if my breathing worsened

Check yourself often for a fever, it's probably those two things combined that are the biggest indicators.

Respectfully, you can believe any numbers that you want to. I feel that with the current measures that are in place and the possibility that they may get even more aggressive, we will not even get close to that 495k number. WHO numbers A/O today show 7800 deaths worldwide and 79 in US.

What current measures in place? Even the most hardcore restrictions right now are mostly "stay at home if you can but if you have a good reason that's OK" and that's not even close to all of the areas in the US. At most right now we have a suggestion to stay home and some of the most usual gathering places closed.
That's not enough to be so confident in slowing the spread.

I hope you are right but I also think you're overstating what the US has done so far and are being too hopeful.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

You think that Trump has something to do with the market meltdown?

The market generally goes up when he speaks

It didn’t today

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Well I tested positive. I was dying and finally they accepted me. Got treatment. I feel a million times better than I did 2 days ago. Quarantined. Had to let everyone I was around past 14 days (from when I entered the hospital) know that I tested positive. My office has been shut down for now. This is no joke. I thought I was gonna die. I’m 38 years old, 39 in April.

Wow glad you’re doing bettter. If you don’t mind me asking, what were your symptoms like? What did your treatments and care consist of?

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Check yourself often for a fever, it's probably those two things combined that are the biggest indicators.



What current measures in place? Even the most hardcore restrictions right now are mostly "stay at home if you can but if you have a good reason that's OK" and that's not even close to all of the areas in the US. At most right now we have a suggestion to stay home and some of the most usual gathering places closed.
That's not enough to be so confident in slowing the spread.

I hope you are right but I also think you're overstating what the US has done so far and are being too hopeful.

What measures? Really? many businesses closed and more closing by the day, schools closed, restaurants closed, venues of 50 or more closed for 2 months, public transportation being limited. Basically the only places open by me are doctor's offices, hospitals, pharmacies, grocery stores and gas stations and the measures are getting more aggressive as we speak. This will all help. That 495k number is absurd.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Studies out of Italy coming now showing some areas have been able to eradicate this with aggressive testing. That follows the lessons learned from South Korea and China.

We're nowhere near where we need to be. Not close to the targets thrown out in these conferences. There's no excuse as to why we're lagging so far behind. They need to get on this, now.

The whole testing aspect has been a complete debacle. The Trump admin was talking about tests in the millions being ready 2 weeks ago. Now they're still talking future tense, but in the thousands. What gives? Really incompetent stuff.