OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part II (READ THE OP)

[Machinehead]

I find it helps to limit social media and news consumption (and really, that means this thread too). Today I got up early, had a light breakfast, worked out, and then put in some hours at the "home office." I took intermittent breaks to go for long walks with my dog. I caught up over the phone with my parents and grandparents, had a salad for dinner, and now am watching some TV to finish off the day. Regardless of what happened in the larger world today, I had a great day. If something bad happens to me or a loved one tomorrow, I'll deal with it then. In the meantime, I try not to let the noise control my state of mind.

This is the de way.

I got a shamrock shake from McDonald's (standing six feet away in line) and I'm making the best of my holiday.

 

[ColonialsHockey10]

If the old politics forum and the advanced stats thread had a baby...

The dataviz during this disaster has actually been pretty great.

Advanced stats dataviz is appalling.

 

[GordonGecko]

View attachment 336961

 

[CasusBelli]

State run media. Authoritarian government. State run everything.

PR is very important to the Chinese government and people - not sure what their population size has to do with anything when it comes to that. Tough to take any #'s they're throwing out there seriously when how it reflects on the government is paramount.

Think I saw in The Economist or the FT a few years ago that the sum of China’s reported regional GDPs did not sum to the total reported GDP for the corresponding period. That says it all.

 

[CasusBelli]

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]

 

[Raspewtin]

Think I saw in The Economist or the FT a few years ago that the sum of China’s reported regional GDPs did not sum to the total reported GDP for the corresponding period. That says it all.

yes the propaganda arm of the g20 is unbiased and cares only about facts

 

[JimmyG89]

Got the laptop from work and the go ahead to work from home. It's a big relief for me and the others that I work with to not have to commute on the subways and take unnecessary risks. Also feel very lucky that I can do this, while others cannot.

Now it's time to hunker down for a few weeks and hope we start seeing the drop sooner than projected.

 

[Synergy27]

I know it's St Patties day and you must be drinking heavily I suppose. There is currently less than 100 deaths in the US with aggressive measures in place. How is the US going to have 1 million deaths when the rest of the worlds 6 billion population has reported about 7500 so far. Please explain this logic.

Here’s the logic. Picture a big lake with a lily pad on it. If I told you that the number of lily pads on the lake doubles each day, and that it will take 48 days for the lake to be covered completely with lily pads, can you tell me how long it will take for the lake to be half covered.

The answer is 47 days. On day 45 the lake is only 1/8 covered. You go from very little coverage to complete saturation very quickly.

This is just meant to illustrate the point. We don’t know or even think that coronavirus infections are doubling every day, but the growth rate is a TBD modified exponential.

Does this make sense?

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Here’s the logic. Picture a big lake with a lily pad on it. If I told you that the number of lily pads on the lake doubles each day, and that it will take 48 days for the lake to be covered completely with lily pads, can you tell me how long it will take for the lake to be half covered.

The answer is 47 days. On day 45 the lake is only 1/8 covered. You go from very little coverage to complete saturation very quickly.

This is just meant to illustrate the point. We don’t know or even think that coronavirus infections are doubling every day, but the growth rate is a TBD modified exponential.

Does this make sense?

I understand about exponentials. My point was/is that the entire globe with 6 billion people has reported 7500 deaths to date. With the restrictions in place I doubt we reach that number.

 

[Leetch3]

I understand about exponentials. My point was/is that the entire globe with 6 billion people has reported 7500 deaths to date. With the restrictions in place I doubt we reach that number.

are you arguing that the restrictions are unnecessary or that because the restrictions are being made we won't get to that number?

 

[PuckLuck3043]

are you arguing that the restrictions are unnecessary or that because the restrictions are being made we won't get to that number?

The latter.

 

[aufheben]

Honestly, what would have happened if this shit occurred during December 2007?

 

[frozenrubber]

I understand about exponentials. My point was/is that the entire globe with 6 billion people has reported 7500 deaths to date. With the restrictions in place I doubt we reach that number.

But the Earth has/had a population of 7.7 billion; so by your estimate, we've already lost 1.7 billion people!

 

[The Crypto Guy]

 

[PuckLuck3043]

But the Earth has/had a population of 7.7 billion; so by your estimate, we've already lost 1.7 billion people!

Ahh, whats a billion here or there. Even better numbers with the 7.7 billion and 7500 deaths.

 

[Synergy27]

I understand about exponentials. My point was/is that the entire globe with 6 billion people has reported 7500 deaths to date. With the restrictions in place I doubt we reach that number.

I will say that I really, truly, hope you are right. I really, really do. The big unknown, for me at least, is that I cannot say with certainty whether or not the measures we have implemented are as extreme or thorough as 1) they’ve been in other places and 2) they ultimately need to be.

Myself, I cannot personally claim to have the requisite knowledge to compare the lockdown I am currently experiencing to what’s been done in Wuhan and most of Europe. I suspect that it is far less draconian.

I also deeply distrust any data leaving China. This may be conspiracy thinking on my part, I admit it and I hope it is, but I’m not going to be shocked if there’s eventually a Netflix documentary about what’s really happening right now.

I’ll feel a hell of a lot better about this in a week or so if the situation in Italy and the rest of Europe levels off.

 

[Machinehead]

Here’s the logic. Picture a big lake with a lily pad on it. If I told you that the number of lily pads on the lake doubles each day, and that it will take 48 days for the lake to be covered completely with lily pads, can you tell me how long it will take for the lake to be half covered.

The answer is 47 days. On day 45 the lake is only 1/8 covered. You go from very little coverage to complete saturation very quickly.

This is just meant to illustrate the point. We don’t know or even think that coronavirus infections are doubling every day, but the growth rate is a TBD modified exponential.

Does this make sense?

The logic makes sense. And yes, let's call it what it is -- this is a tragedy and it needs to be taken extremely seriously. I think we are taking it seriously.

That said, throwing out "hundreds of thousands of deaths" is just going to stir panic and is irresponsible. There's nothing to indicate that right now. Polio didn't even kill 100,000 Americans over the course of 39 years with ancient medicine.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

I will say that I really, truly, hope you are right. I really, really do. The big unknown, for me at least, is that I cannot say with certainty whether or not the measures we have implemented are as extreme or thorough as 1) they’ve been in other places and 2) they ultimately need to be.

Myself, I cannot personally claim to have the requisite knowledge to compare the lockdown I am currently experiencing to what’s been done in Wuhan and most of Europe. I suspect that it is far less draconian.

I also deeply distrust any data leaving China. This may be conspiracy thinking on my part, I admit it and I hope it is, but I’m not going to be shocked if there’s eventually a Netflix documentary about what’s really happening right now.

I’ll feel a hell of a lot better about this in a week or so if the situation in Italy and the rest of Europe levels off.

You don't think what they have done here is enough? The only places that are open by me are doctors offices, hospitals, grocery stores, gas stations and Dunkin Donuts.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Honestly, what would have happened if this shit occurred during December 2007?

Eli would still have beaten Brady Feb 2008

 

[Machinehead]

The only report that's talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths was the imperial college report in London, but that was in response to Boris Johnson saying "yeah, we'll all just get it and then we'll be immune lol"

We're already not doing that.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Dr Oz was on Fox mentioned an older malaria drug is showing signs of making people (he’s hoping healthcare workers) will be more resilient to Coronavirus. Re-purposing Ebola, HIV, etc drugs seem to show benefits to slow down the growth of the virus.

That sounds promising - also using the blood from those who survived the virus in hopes to use antibodies. Some primative methods and drugs from yesteryear appear promising.


Got the above from Dr Oz while this link (credible?) is making mention too. Coronavirus: Australian researchers may have found a CURE | Daily Mail Online Maybe others can find more.

 

[Synergy27]

You don't think what they have done here is enough? The only places that are open by me are doctors offices, hospitals, grocery stores, gas stations and Dunkin Donuts.

I just don’t know. I cannot personally verify that what we as a nation are doing is equivalent to the extreme measures currently implemented in Italy and elsewhere. I had to go to work today, I know that. So did most of the rest of my office. That’s all I know.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

I just don’t know. I cannot personally verify that what we as a nation are doing is equivalent to the extreme measures currently implemented in Italy and elsewhere. I had to go to work today, I know that. So did most of the rest of my office. That’s all I know.

I know, I had to go to work also. I guess people just have to be smart with what they can control.

 

[Levitate]

The only report that's talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths was the imperial college report in London, but that was in response to Boris Johnson saying "yeah, we'll all just get it and then we'll be immune lol"

We're already not doing that.

I think that report actually ran several scenarios. In the one where the US does what it's more or less doing now (shelter in place, limit contact, etc etc), you're still looking at over a million deaths

Whether their methods or data is correct I'm not qualified to say

Also, there's little doubt a cure will be found. The thing is that to test it to make sure it's safe and then produce enough of a vaccine etc will take over a year.

I honestly don't know what's going to end up happening...maybe it's not that severe, maybe it is. Maybe we're on lockdown as a country/planet for the next year until there's a safe vaccine. Maybe world governments have to step in and say "uhh ok maybe rampant capitalism needs to be put on hold until this is over" considering the number of people who are losing jobs, homes, lives over it