OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part II (READ THE OP)

[GordonGecko]

Unlike corporations most people don’t file extensions. Also there was no country-wide mandate for isolation that I think will be in place in the next 2-3 which is right around the filing deadline.

is that true? I assume most people get extensions, I get one almost every year

 

[PuckLuck3043]

I'm the the San Francisco Bay Area. We're in complete shelter-in-place lockdown. No one that I am connected with in this area is questioning how serious this is. I read debates on this message board about how the media is exaggerating things and I really can't understand that. Is this a political argument? Because the outlook is pretty dire and out here we all recognize this and are attempting to do our part. Posting a few links here (sorry, not in the mood to figure out formatting).

Medium-case scenario modeling has the US suffering over 1,000,000 deaths, and hospitals completely overloaded.

The White House was treating this like a PR problem, not a health crisis.

Government-provided testing data, and it doesn't look good for the US.

Staying home and staying isolated can literally save lives. This isn't a joke or hyperbole. I would like to try to understand someone's point of view who thinks it's not serious enough to call for shelter-in-place though.

I know it's St Patties day and you must be drinking heavily I suppose. There is currently less than 100 deaths in the US with aggressive measures in place. How is the US going to have 1 million deaths when the rest of the worlds 6 billion population has reported about 7500 so far. Please explain this logic.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

well pick your country, even Italy is "only" 2500 deaths. We are not going near 100K deaths anywhere let alone 1M

It's aloof attitudes like this that Im afraid will get more people killed than necessary regardless of where the final #'s end up. Let me guess, you were saying "this isn't that big of a deal and people are blowing it our of proportion" when we were doing nothing. Since then, we've pretty much shut down life and the economy as we know it, much like China and Italy did.

Will you feel proud when this does blow over without an extreme # of deaths and say "I told you so?" Or will you show an ounce of learning and realize we thankfully went to these extreme measures to prevent it?

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

China is a country with like 30% of the world's population. It isn't some secret society.

State run media. Authoritarian government. State run everything.

PR is very important to the Chinese government and people - not sure what their population size has to do with anything when it comes to that. Tough to take any #'s they're throwing out there seriously when how it reflects on the government is paramount.

 

[GordonGecko]

It's aloof attitudes like this that Im afraid will get more people killed than necessary regardless of where the final #'s end up. Let me guess, you were saying "this isn't that big of a deal and people are blowing it our of proportion" when we were doing nothing. Since then, we've pretty much shut down life and the economy as we know it, much like China and Italy did.

Will you feel proud when this does blow over without an extreme # of deaths and say "I told you so?" Or will you show an ounce of learning and realize we thankfully went to these extreme measures to prevent it?

Wake up, we already have the extreme measures. We are not going to see anywhere near "tens of thousands of deaths", it's not even remotely realistic based on the actual infection curves around the world. Italy had it worst, then they went on lockdown much like we are now, they are going to plateau at like 5000-7000 deaths

 

[PuckLuck3043]

It's aloof attitudes like this that Im afraid will get more people killed than necessary regardless of where the final #'s end up. Let me guess, you were saying "this isn't that big of a deal and people are blowing it our of proportion" when we were doing nothing. Since then, we've pretty much shut down life and the economy as we know it, much like China and Italy did.

Will you feel proud when this does blow over without an extreme # of deaths and say "I told you so?" Or will you show an ounce of learning and realize we thankfully went to these extreme measures to prevent it?

You are barking up the wrong tree dude. He has been talking about aggressive measures being put in place since this began. He's been talking about the importance of social distancing and self containment for a while now. He's not saying that this isn't a big deal just that final number in US won't be a ridiculous number like 1 million.

 

[Khelvan]

I know it's St Patties day and you must be drinking heavily I suppose. There is currently less than 100 deaths in the US with aggressive measures in place. How is the US going to have 1 million deaths when the rest of the worlds 6 billion population has reported about 7500 so far. Please explain this logic.

I apologize, I should amend my statement with "if no preventative measures are taken." Hence why cities such as San Francisco are locking down. To understand the logic, you can read the study yourself.

If you don't want to do that, at least watch this short primer on exponential growth which can help you understand why it's a huge issue.

That last link is from the CDC.

 

[Khelvan]

Wake up, we already have the extreme measures. We are not going to see anywhere near "tens of thousands of deaths", it's not even remotely realistic based on the actual infection curves around the world. Italy had it worst, then they went on lockdown much like we are now, they are going to plateau at like 5000-7000 deaths

The infection data does not support your assertion that they are going to plateau there.

Keep in mind that Italy began its lockdown 4 days ago.

 

[GordonGecko]

The infection data does not support your assertion that they are going to plateau there.

I disagree, I think it's going to follow the same Chinese curve once measures were implemented:

Medium.com

 

[Khelvan]

I disagree, I think it's going to follow the same Chinese curve once measures were implemented:

Medium.com

Look at my graph compared to yours. Let's, for the sake of argument, tentatively agree that we can get real data out of China. Italy implemented the country-wide lockdown March 13th. That would be equivalent to January 23rd on your graph. It is now the 16th, equivalent to Janurary 26th on your graph. The curve is absolutely not the same, demonstrably.

 

[GordonGecko]

Look at my graph compared to yours. Let's, for the sake of argument, tentatively agree that we can get real data out of China. Italy implemented the country-wide lockdown March 13th. That would be equivalent to January 23rd on your graph. It is now the 16th, equivalent to Janurary 26th on your graph. The curve is absolutely not the same, demonstrably.

That's factually incorrect, the wave hit the Northern part Italy first and the main cities there started lockdowns February 21 and had strong police enforcement in all those areas by February 27. The country-wide lockdown was announced March 9 and started March 10 with harsher enforcement every day after that

 

[Khelvan]

That's factually incorrect, the wave hit the Northern part Italy first and the main cities there started lockdowns February 21 and had strong police enforcement in all those areas by February 27

You do realize that this supports my assertion, correct?

Additionally, what I stated was factually correct. Italy extended its red zone country-wide March 13th.

Edit: Anything that suggests that Italy began locking things down prior to March 13th is another data point to support the idea that the infection rate is not slowing down the way your China graph suggests it should. If the measures to lock down the country were put in place we would expect that curve to flatten. It has not. There will be many more deaths to come.

 

[GordonGecko]

You do realize that this supports my assertion, correct?

Additionally, what I stated was factually correct. Italy extended its red zone country-wide March 13th.

You made an equivalence of January 23rd on the chart, and I showed how you are 2-3 weeks off putting Italy more in early February when the diagnosed cases are peaking but the "actual" cases are heading to the bottom. Anyways there's no sense arguing about this everyone will have the real numbers days from now to see if Italy was in fact peaking today or on the way down

 

[Khelvan]

You made an equivalence of January 23rd on the chart, and I showed how you are 2-3 weeks off putting Italy more in early February when the diagnosed cases are peaking but the "actual" cases are heading to the bottom. Anyways there's no sense arguing about this everyone will have the real numbers days from now to see if Italy was in fact peaking today or on the way down

Sure, I'm being generous. Move the start point earlier. The curve looks even worse for the prospect of more deaths in Italy in that case.

 

[Crease]

If the old politics forum and the advanced stats thread had a baby...

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I could swear I saw earlier today they are allowing a 90 day extension with no penalty.

If you could find a link I would really appreciate it.

 

[GordonGecko]

If you could find a link I would really appreciate it.

There is no official action, the news is Trump floating the idea of extensions for certain people "negatively impacted" but nobody knows what that means. It's not a real thing yet

Taxes 2020: Trump delaying tax day for some filers over coronavirus

 

[SnowblindNYR]

There is no official action, the news is Trump floating the idea of extensions for certain people "negatively impacted" but nobody knows what that means. It's not a real thing yet

Taxes 2020: Trump delaying tax day for some filers over coronavirus

I guess that should at least slow down the traffic but if it's not all I doubt they'll close. Thank you, though!

 

[NYR Lurker]

On the lighter side of news (or darker?):

Miley from Vancouver, Washington thought she was doing her bit to stop the spread of coronavirus by thoroughly washing her hands with a bar of soap.

Unfortunately, she instead succeeded in spreading some rather mature looking cheddar on her hands over the course of several days.

Woman discovers bar of soap she’s been washing her hands with for days is block of cheese | The Irish Post

 

[Bob Richards]

Dropped my gf off and got back home just before the NJ curfew.

Seeing the empty roads and vacant store fronts is eerie and depressing.

 

[Machinehead]

State run media. Authoritarian government. State run everything.

PR is very important to the Chinese government and people - not sure what their population size has to do with anything when it comes to that. Tough to take any #'s they're throwing out there seriously when how it reflects on the government is paramount.

The thing about the population is that it's a lot of people very spread out.

That means that power in China is very divided among different branches -- there's literally no other way to do it.

The most powerful of these branches -the NPC- has term limits and elections just like we have here.

The idea that China is this unilateral dictatorship is from the 1970's.

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]

 

[Crease]

I find it helps to limit social media and news consumption (and really, that means this thread too). Today I got up early, had a light breakfast, worked out, and then put in some hours at the "home office." I took intermittent breaks to go for long walks with my dog. I caught up over the phone with my parents and grandparents, had a salad for dinner, and now am watching some TV to finish off the day. Regardless of what happened in the larger world today, I had a great day. If something bad happens to me or a loved one tomorrow, I'll deal with it then. In the meantime, I try not to let the noise control my state of mind.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

I find it helps to limit social media and news consumption (and really, that means this thread too). Today I got up early, had a light breakfast, worked out, and then put in some hours at the "home office." I took intermittent breaks to go for long walks with my dog. I caught up over the phone with my parents and grandparents, had a salad for dinner, and now am watching some TV to finish off the day. Regardless of what happened in the larger world today, I had a great day. If something bad happens to me or a loved one tomorrow, I'll deal with it then. In the meantime, I try not to let the noise control my state of mind.

Good advice.

 

[vladmyir111]

People do love a crisis. Gives meaning to so many boring and monotonous lives. We'll all be looking for the next emergency before summer.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(19)30163-X/fulltext?rss=yes

2nd link, TL;DR something like 90k flu deaths a year in China.

Bottom line is it sucks when a new flu strain comes along every decade or two and is a deadlier to old folks than usual, but this is just insanity. Almost as if China had something to gain by decimating the world economy, /shrug