OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part II (READ THE OP)

[Machinehead]

I think that report actually ran several scenarios. In the one where the US does what it's more or less doing now (shelter in place, limit contact, etc etc), you're still looking at over a million deaths

Whether their methods or data is correct I'm not qualified to say

Also, there's little doubt a cure will be found. The thing is that to test it to make sure it's safe and then produce enough of a vaccine etc will take over a year.

I honestly don't know what's going to end up happening...maybe it's not that severe, maybe it is. Maybe we're on lockdown as a country/planet for the next year until there's a safe vaccine. Maybe world governments have to step in and say "uhh ok maybe rampant capitalism needs to be put on hold until this is over" considering the number of people who are losing jobs, homes, lives over it

That's not what it says.

The test compares mitigation vs suppression. Mitigation is a professional way of saying "f***ing off while the world burns." What we're practicing now is suppression.

 

[Levitate]

That's not what it says.

The test compares mitigation vs suppression. Mitigation is a professional way of saying "f***ing off while the world burns." What we're practicing now is suppression.

Suppression in their estimate means more than what the US as a whole is doing right now, "social distancing" would have to be mandatory one way or another, we'd need enough testing to identify anyone infected and quarantine them, all schools and universities need to be closed...and it has to be done for 12-18 months.

The middle of the road option, which is more just steps to slow the spread rather than trying to stop it (which is what suppression would be) still estimates 1.1 million deaths in the US from the virus.

e: though again there's no way to know if their predictions are accurate...they tried to take data and what is known from several countries and find a way to make it fit together. Maybe it's not that bad, maybe it's worse than that. Let's all hope that they're wrong and it's not that bad.

 

[apoptygma]

For the data from China, the virus did only hit part of China hard. That country got a nasty scare with SARS, and as a totalitary state used methods that democracies are not willing to use from the start to contain it. The virus is not done with China yet, as it spreads more around the world they will get more and more infections coming into China from other countries, a boomerang effect is expected.

For Italy so far only he northern richest part of the country have been hit hard. Cases is ramping up in the south now.

It is not so an inflected person dies just straight away if he is going to die from it, it often take many days from getting the virus to the end, so even if the spread is halting, the death toll will rise the next weeks.

 

[eco's bones]

What NYC is seeing as it slowly builds momentum in the rest of NYS is only the first wave--the question is whether what's being done will be enough to slow down and then stop successive waves because if it's not enough more draconian measures will probably need to be taken. Where we're at now is pretty much the beginning. Consider this as well---getting the mass of your population on board to do one thing is the first step to get the mass of your population to do the next thing. It will be like 'Oh! you need us to do this now.' By the way people can just hop in a car and pretty much go anywhere they want in the USA right now. I suspect that's going to stop or at least in some places.

I'm not crazy about Cuomo but he's not stupid. He's asking for field hospitals, hospital beds, more ICU hospital beds, ventilators and tons of other stuff. He expects this to get a lot bigger than it already is. It will be important to protect doctors and medical staff because they're the ones who are going to be dealing with it for a long time. Without them we'll be f***ed.

There's a point somewhere in that wherever coronavirus is everyone is going to need a place to be or a place to stay.....including homeless now. People should not be evicted or foreclosed on. If need be supplied with food and essentials. That will be a challenge too and there may be issues logistically keeping our food chain alive--we're already seeing shortages everywhere. When things are shutting down that causes shortages. So I'm seeing drastic changes to our economic system at least on some temporary basis and for that we'll need strong leadership and a coordinated plan.

 

[UnSandvich]

Dr Oz was on Fox mentioned an older malaria drug is showing signs of making people (he’s hoping healthcare workers) will be more resilient to Coronavirus. Re-purposing Ebola, HIV, etc drugs seem to show benefits to slow down the growth of the virus.

That sounds promising - also using the blood from those who survived the virus in hopes to use antibodies. Some primative methods and drugs from yesteryear appear promising.


Got the above from Dr Oz while this link (credible?) is making mention too. Coronavirus: Australian researchers may have found a CURE | Daily Mail Online Maybe others can find more.

I actually heard something similar from an ICU nurse while on the line to get into BestBuy yesterday. Fortunately, she said she'd had surgery recently so hadn't been at the office in a few weeks lol, otherwise my warranty expedition might've gone not so great

 

[Gardner McKay]

What NYC is seeing as it slowly builds momentum in the rest of NYS is only the first wave--the question is whether what's being done will be enough to slow down and then stop successive waves because if it's not enough more draconian measures will probably need to be taken. Where we're at now is pretty much the beginning. Consider this as well---getting the mass of your population on board to do one thing is the first step to get the mass of your population to do the next thing. It will be like 'Oh! you need us to do this now.' By the way people can just hop in a car and pretty much go anywhere they want in the USA right now. I suspect that's going to stop or at least in some places.

I'm not crazy about Cuomo but he's not stupid. He's asking for field hospitals, hospital beds, more ICU hospital beds, ventilators and tons of other stuff. He expects this to get a lot bigger than it already is. It will be important to protect doctors and medical staff because they're the ones who are going to be dealing with it for a long time. Without them we'll be f***ed.

There's a point somewhere in that wherever coronavirus is everyone is going to need a place to be or a place to stay.....including homeless now. People should not be evicted or foreclosed on. If need be supplied with food and essentials. That will be a challenge too and there may be issues logistically keeping our food chain alive--we're already seeing shortages everywhere. When things are shutting down that causes shortages. So I'm seeing drastic changes to our economic system at least on some temporary basis and for that we'll need strong leadership and a coordinated plan.

To be candid, up until recently, I haven't had a very high opinion of Cuomo.

With that being said, I think Cuomo has done a really good job handling COVID-19. A really, really good job. There was never going to be a way to stop it but he is doing everything he can to get ahead of it. That will save lives. I've gained a ton of respect for him for his actions recently.

You look at Governors like Cuomo, Newsome, DeWine and Kemp, I think they are working on getting ahead and trying to lead from the front. It gives me hope on a state level.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

The thing about the population is that it's a lot of people very spread out.

That means that power in China is very divided among different branches -- there's literally no other way to do it.

The most powerful of these branches -the NPC- has term limits and elections just like we have here.

The idea that China is this unilateral dictatorship is from the 1970's.

Yeah - seems like things are going great there - see below. What’s being exposed, in many major countries, including ours, is government is becoming more about image than serving the people. In both China and the United States, the first reaction wasn’t “how can we help?” from the leaders. It was “how can we spin?” Thats some fatal and tragic bullshit

— A Wuhan lab that identified COVID-19 as a highly contagious pathogen in late December was ordered by local officials to stop tests and destroy samples. Beijing is now scrambling to censor the story —

 

[Kakko]

My mom works at one of NYC's main hospitals. She can't speak for the medical personelle, but apparently the general staff response has been horrific. Both in terms of management and carelessness from staff.

She is a bit of a hypochondriac, so it might be an overreaction on her end, but it's giving me very little faith. Sorry to be so negative.

 

[Fugazy]

To be candid, up until recently, I haven't had a very high opinion of Cuomo.

With that being said, I think Cuomo has done a really good job handling COVID-19. A really, really good job. There was never going to be a way to stop it but he is doing everything he can to get ahead of it. That will save lives. I've gained a ton of respect for him for his actions recently.

You look at Governors like Cuomo, Newsome, DeWine and Kemp, I think they are working on getting ahead and trying to lead from the front. It gives me hope on a state level.

Well said. I feel like he's taken a competent approach to this and is showing good leadership and decision making.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

To be candid, up until recently, I haven't had a very high opinion of Cuomo.

With that being said, I think Cuomo has done a really good job handling COVID-19. A really, really good job. There was never going to be a way to stop it but he is doing everything he can to get ahead of it. That will save lives. I've gained a ton of respect for him for his actions recently.

You look at Governors like Cuomo, Newsome, DeWine and Kemp, I think they are working on getting ahead and trying to lead from the front. It gives me hope on a state level.

Cuomo has been really solid. One of the few that has taken the issue head on and kept the public well-informed.

Bill de Blasio, on the other hand, has been an absolute idiot. Luckily, he's getting strong armed by more competent and capable people like Cuomo.

 

[Leonardo87]

Cuomo has been really solid. One of the few that has taken the issue head on and kept the public well-informed.

Bill de Blasio, on the other hand, has been an absolute idiot. Luckily, he's getting strong armed by more competent and capable people like Cuomo.

De Blasio is an idiot. He was against closing schools. Kids spread shit like this like wildfire. Schools should have been closed the min the first case hit the states. They close schools for 2-3 inches of snow. But a high potential epidemic which wasn’t the case just yet but still, nope everything is fine. Lol.

 

[Elliman]

Well I tested positive. I was dying and finally they accepted me. Got treatment. I feel a million times better than I did 2 days ago. Quarantined. Had to let everyone I was around past 14 days (from when I entered the hospital) know that I tested positive. My office has been shut down for now. This is no joke. I thought I was gonna die. I’m 38 years old, 39 in April.

 

[Elliman]

Btw, the key to getting seen is fever with difficult breathing especially if you’re young. I have a lung condition called sarcoidosis and even that at the start couldn’t get me tested or seen. Good luck everyone.

 

[Irishguy42]

Well I tested positive. I was dying and finally they accepted me. Got treatment. I feel a million times better than I did 2 days ago. Quarantined. Had to let everyone I was around past 14 days (from when I entered the hospital) know that I tested positive. My office has been shut down for now. This is no joke. I thought I was gonna die. I’m 38 years old, 39 in April.

Glad you're okay now

 

[TheDirtyH]

Well I tested positive. I was dying and finally they accepted me. Got treatment. I feel a million times better than I did 2 days ago. Quarantined. Had to let everyone I was around past 14 days (from when I entered the hospital) know that I tested positive. My office has been shut down for now. This is no joke. I thought I was gonna die. I’m 38 years old, 39 in April.

Glad you're getting through this, god bless!

 

[Synergy27]

Well I tested positive. I was dying and finally they accepted me. Got treatment. I feel a million times better than I did 2 days ago. Quarantined. Had to let everyone I was around past 14 days (from when I entered the hospital) know that I tested positive. My office has been shut down for now. This is no joke. I thought I was gonna die. I’m 38 years old, 39 in April.

What did your treatment consist of? Glad you are feeling better.

 

[NYR Viper]

Well I tested positive. I was dying and finally they accepted me. Got treatment. I feel a million times better than I did 2 days ago. Quarantined. Had to let everyone I was around past 14 days (from when I entered the hospital) know that I tested positive. My office has been shut down for now. This is no joke. I thought I was gonna die. I’m 38 years old, 39 in April.

I'm glad you're feeling better and doing the right things. Keep relaxing as possible and I'm sure your support network will help as they can if needed

 

[eco's bones]

To be candid, up until recently, I haven't had a very high opinion of Cuomo.

With that being said, I think Cuomo has done a really good job handling COVID-19. A really, really good job. There was never going to be a way to stop it but he is doing everything he can to get ahead of it. That will save lives. I've gained a ton of respect for him for his actions recently.

You look at Governors like Cuomo, Newsome, DeWine and Kemp, I think they are working on getting ahead and trying to lead from the front. It gives me hope on a state level.

I never liked Bill Clinton but when I'd hear someone say how dumb he was I would think this guy telling me this is full of shit and just doesn't like democrats because Bill Clinton (like him or not) is a very clever and a very smart man and was a really astute politician. Hillary is actually very smart too---just not that astute a politician. That said I think Bill did a lot of bad things but even so...... there are politicians that are dumb for sure--he wasn't one of them. The Cuomo family have been around a long time and Andrew's father Mario was governor of New York for a while too. I didn't care for him either (I know there aren't many politicians I actually do like--so if we're getting into likeability it's a theme for me that I really don't like very many.....but all the same I've been watching any number of them for years and years) but he was as crafty as they come and Andrew is pretty much up there with his Dad. Andrew has an ability (like his dad) to take a step back and see things for what they really are or what they could be and if he's this worried about this pandemic I would take that very very seriously. He's not going to try to fake it or lie or play games on something like this. In a crisis situation IMO you need people like Cuomo who can step up and assume some leadership---is willing to take responsibility for the office he holds. Public policy and messaging is really important right now.

 

[GoAwayGiannone]

Anyone hearing anything about National Guard coming into the city?

 

[Gardner McKay]

So... this is interesting. On a call with our entire company. They are having some of our MD's present on COVID-19. One of the questions asked was "what are your thoughts on the potential that COVID-19 cases are already in the hundreds of thousands".

Their answer was unanimous and pretty simple (and knowing them personally I can assure you their political beliefs greatly vary), they think it is a crock of shit. While there are obviously undiagnosed cases and there have been some struggles with testing, if it was that bad we would be seeing a bigger stress on our healthcare system than we are currently experiencing.

It was good to get a reassuring perspective from people with no ulterior motive.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Suppression in their estimate means more than what the US as a whole is doing right now, "social distancing" would have to be mandatory one way or another, we'd need enough testing to identify anyone infected and quarantine them, all schools and universities need to be closed...and it has to be done for 12-18 months.

The middle of the road option, which is more just steps to slow the spread rather than trying to stop it (which is what suppression would be) still estimates 1.1 million deaths in the US from the virus.

e: though again there's no way to know if their predictions are accurate...they tried to take data and what is known from several countries and find a way to make it fit together. Maybe it's not that bad, maybe it's worse than that. Let's all hope that they're wrong and it's not that bad.

How does this makes any sense from a numbers standpoint with the measures that are put in place right now? I think that report was with no measures. I keep saying this but the entire globe has reported 7500 deaths so far from this virus over the last 3 months. These numbers are official numbers from the WHO a/o 3/17. It's not like every one of the countries infected put measures in place right away either. We have some aggressive measures in place now and the current death toll is less than 100. I would be very surprised if the death toll in the US surpassed the 22,000 deaths that the flu caused this year let alone 7 figures.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Wonder how much the market is going to jump after Donny Pump comes out to speak

 

[Gardner McKay]

@SnowblindNYR Below are some words of encouragement for you. Keep your chin up, there is still a ton to be hopeful for. We're gonna get through this. Things may be different, but we will.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Wonder how much the market is going to jump after Donny Pump comes out to speak

Market currently down 32% from its high. Yikes.

 

[Leonardo87]

This epidemic has proven at least one thing, that there are a lot more assholes in the country than we originally thought since all the toilet paper is gone.