Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Part VIII - The Long Winter is Here

[kb]

Not so sure. Reporter on radio yesterday said that a York U study showed clearly that it does. Of course that does not take into account the harm that it does to the mental health of many people. IMO stores should be allowed to remain open with limits set according to square footage of the shop. Blinding locking everything down is the lazy man's way and is not the answer.

Absolutely, it isn't the answer in any way, shape or form. Those businesses have zero income now, but most big chains and box stores are free to conduct business under the guise that they are "essential".

A lockdown means people have far fewer places they can go, which inherently increases anyone's risk of contracting it.

 

[kb]

If you actually read articles instead of just reading headlines you would know that 0.1% number relates only to retail stores, and it is a meaningless stat considering over 60% of the cases in Ontario have an unknown source of transmission. The number is very likely much higher.

Again, missing the forest for the trees. Where is the numerical data, and what is scientific rationale for locking down small businesses and keeping big ones open? How do we know the "unknown spread" isn't mostly from the now mostly crowded (and non-distancing) big box stores?

 

[stealth1]

Again, missing the forest for the trees. Where is the numerical data, and what is scientific rationale for locking down small businesses and keeping big ones open? How do we know the "unknown spread" isn't mostly from big box stores?

The rationale is that with only places to get groceries open that people would do the right like back in March. Go once a week for groceries and stay home as much as possible. At some point its on people to do the right thing

 

[kb]

The rationale is that with only places to get groceries open that people would do the right like back in March. Go once a week for groceries and stay home as much as possible. At some point its on people to do the right thing

Again.....where is the evidence that lockdowns work?? It's a simple question I keep asking. Most data shows it does nothing at all. Sweden was pretty much entirely open, and are on pace for less overall deaths that last year.

Does that sound like a pandemic to anyone?

 

[kb]

Not so sure. Reporter on radio yesterday said that a York U study showed clearly that it does. Of course that does not take into account the harm that it does to the mental health of many people. IMO stores should be allowed to remain open with limits set according to square footage of the shop. Blinding locking everything down is the lazy man's way and is not the answer.

Edit: Found a link:

Ontario lockdown successful in disrupting transmission of virus by shifting contact patterns | York Media Relations

TORONTO, Dec. 02, 2020 – Do COVID-19 interventions, such as lockdowns, physical distancing and business closures, actually work? York University researchers conducted a model-based analysis that found Ontario government measures had a substantial and positive effect on mitigating virus transmission.

A model-based analysis? Unfortunately, that isn't scientific proof, it's actually more of a hypothesis that would require scientific validation.

 

[Pink Mist]

Again.....where is the evidence that lockdowns work?? It's a simple question I keep asking. Most data shows it does nothing at all. Sweden was pretty much entirely open, and are on pace for less overall deaths that last year.

Does that sound like a pandemic to anyone?

Sweden has one of highest per capita covid deaths in Europe and in the past two weeks has had more covid deaths than Finland and Norway combined during those countries entire pandemic. And Sweden has begun to tighten restrictions in the country and have closed schools.

Yes, that sounds like a pandemic

 

[kb]

And from that Sun article.....we do have this.

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford has created restrictions for the retail sector that, by reducing the number of locations consumers can visit, push more people into tighter spaces for longer periods of time.

It’s not just unfair, as many small retailers have complained. It’s a flat-out misguided policy that, to the small degree that retail does spread the virus, could cause more COVID-19 cases to flare up than if we’d just left things as they were."

 

[donkeyy0]

When trying to apply an apples to apples comparison...

Sweden, ~11M pop, ~7000 deaths, no lockdown

Norway ~6M pop, ~350 deaths, yes lockdown

Denmark ~6M pop, ~850 deaths, yes lockdown

To me, given the similarity in geography, socio economic considerations, ethnic diversity, etc. Seems like the big divergent point is the reaction to Covid, and one of these countries is not like the others.

 

[Pink Mist]

And from that Sun article.....we do have this.

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford has created restrictions for the retail sector that, by reducing the number of locations consumers can visit, push more people into tighter spaces for longer periods of time.

It’s not just unfair, as many small retailers have complained. It’s a flat-out misguided policy that, to the small degree that retail does spread the virus, could cause more COVID-19 cases to flare up than if we’d just left things as they were."

You realize it is an opinion piece, right?

 

[Pink Mist]

I swear the people who claim to be "truth seekers" and don't believe the mainstream media are the most uncritical consumers of media.

 

[stealth1]

I swear the people who claim to be "truth seekers" and don't believe the mainstream media are the most uncritical consumers of media.

Its cause many believe they are part of the problem. They are part of the global reset that's coming.

 

[kb]

When trying to apply an apples to apples comparison...

Sweden, ~11M pop, ~7000 deaths, no lockdown

Norway ~6M pop, ~350 deaths, yes lockdown

Denmark ~6M pop, ~850 deaths, yes lockdown

To me, given the similarity in geography, socio economic considerations, ethnic diversity, etc. Seems like the big divergent point is the reaction to Covid, and one of these countries is not like the others.

Norway didn't lock down until November.

And how many excess deaths over last year did Sweden have again?

The Evidence Keeps Piling up: Lockdowns Don’t Work

 

[4thline]

I do agree that full lockdowns were a lazy approach, and in a way misguided.

Certain behaviours/enterprises can not be done safely. Close those. Those that can be done safely should be kept open, as long as businesses are actually following the rules. Pump some money into enforcement and drop the hammer on commercial enterprises that aren't following guidelines- big and small alike.

I feel they (particularly the colour grid that has been implemented) was misguided in that it the transitions were very relaxed on private social contact, with the messaging being focused progressive restrictions on commercial activity. That private gathering limits stayed at 10/25 all the way to red was pure lunacy.

 

[kb]

Its cause many believe they are part of the problem. They are part of the global reset that's coming.

Have you taken the time to name that strawman yet?

 

[stealth1]

I do agree that full lockdowns were a lazy approach, and in a way misguided.

Certain behaviours/enterprises can not be done safely. Close those. Those that can be done safely should be kept open, as long as businesses are actually following the rules. Pump some money into enforcement and drop the hammer on commercial enterprises that aren't following guidelines- big and small alike.

I feel they (particularly the colour grid that has been implemented) was misguided in that it the transitions were very relaxed on private social contact, with the messaging being focused progressive restrictions on commercial activity. That private gathering limits stayed at 10/25 all the way to red was pure lunacy.

I do agree that gathering limits should be lower and should only be your own household.

Businesses outside of Toronto and Peel are open and doing ok with restrictions. They have been inspecting businesses. What should be done is what Hamilton has been doing and releasing the names of all businesses not following guidelines.

 

[kb]

I do agree that full lockdowns were a lazy approach, and in a way misguided.

Certain behaviours/enterprises can not be done safely. Close those. Those that can be done safely should be kept open, as long as businesses are actually following the rules. Pump some money into enforcement and drop the hammer on commercial enterprises that aren't following guidelines- big and small alike.

I feel they (particularly the colour grid that has been implemented) was misguided in that it the transitions were very relaxed on private social contact, with the messaging being focused progressive restrictions on commercial activity. That private gathering limits stayed at 10/25 all the way to red was pure lunacy.

This is a nice middle ground post, and there are things I totally agree with.

But for me, case numbers, or case % infected is moot, and testing has been a giant waste of resources. The 2 most important things to monitor are medical capacity, and whether or not overall deaths from all causes has gone up solely as a result of Covid.

We can't call it a pandemic if there are no excess deaths over and above normal annual numbers. And right now, this is exactly what we are seeing - very few excess deaths above prior year numbers..

 

[Pink Mist]

Norway didn't lock down until November.

And how many excess deaths over last year did Sweden have again?

The Evidence Keeps Piling up: Lockdowns Don’t Work

What are you talking about? Norway was under lockdown from March to May and even after had many restrictions. Do you just enjoy making things up?

 

[nsleaf]

This is a nice middle ground post, and there are things I totally agree with.

But for me, case numbers, or case % infected is moot, and testing has been a giant waste of resources. The 2 most important things to monitor are medical capacity, and whether or not overall deaths from all causes has gone up solely as a result of Covid.

We can't call it a pandemic if there are no excess deaths over and above normal annual numbers. And right now, this is exactly what we are seeing - very few excess deaths above prior year numbers..

Somebody has been taking way too much vitamin D.

 

[kb]

I do agree that gathering limits should be lower and should only be your own household.

Businesses outside of Toronto and Peel are open and doing ok with restrictions. They have been inspecting businesses. What should be done is what Hamilton has been doing and releasing the names of all businesses not following guidelines.

The restaurant across the street has been open, but he's going under shortly.

It was filled nightly pre pandemic, and now he has close to the same expenses but 1/3 of the pre-pandemic income. You keep saying they are doing OK. They are not doing OK.

 

[kb]

Somebody has been taking way too much vitamin D.

The sole reason why I wasn't sick once in over a decade, but go ahead, mock away if it makes you feel better.

 

[Jojalu]

This is a nice middle ground post, and there are things I totally agree with.

But for me, case numbers, or case % infected is moot, and testing has been a giant waste of resources. The 2 most important things to monitor are medical capacity, and whether or not overall deaths from all causes has gone up solely as a result of Covid.

We can't call it a pandemic if there are no excess deaths over and above normal annual numbers. And right now, this is exactly what we are seeing - very few excess deaths above prior year numbers..

I don't know where you are getting this info from. The Sweden numbers you presented showed an increie jump in April and May followed by a leveling off to normal through the end of September.

An average of 238 people die per day in Sweden and the 90,000 it says are the people who have died already this year. Not a projection of how many will die. There were still 93 days left in the calendar year when that was published.

You keep saying Canada has no excess deaths but every piece of statistical data shows otherwise.

I am just curious to where you are finding your info.

I think you make some great points on the effectiveness on lockdowns, but it holds true whether or not the pandemic is "real".

 

[Puckstuff]

“This is our chance to help your pre-pandemic efforts to reimagine economic systems that actually address global challenges like extreme poverty, inequality, and climate change.” - Justin Trudeau
-
Covid-19 is a smokescreen for monetary re-set, potentially UBI. They can pass things in congress they would never be able to without catastrophic "pandemic". We're witnessing real socialism being introduced right in front of us. Free market capitalism is over.

 

[kb]

I don't know where you are getting this info from. The Sweden numbers you presented showed an increie jump in April and May followed by a leveling off to normal through the end of September.

An average of 238 people die per day in Sweden and the 90,000 it says are the people who have died already this year. Not a projection of how many will die. There were still 93 days left in the calendar year when that was published.

You keep saying Canada has no excess deaths but every piece of statistical data shows otherwise.

I am just curious to where you are finding your info.

I think you make some great points on the effectiveness on lockdowns, but it holds true whether or not the pandemic is "real".

Sweden: death rate 2010-2020 | Statista

This is up to and including Nov 27th. So they are on pace for roughly 91,300. Which is less than 2017 and 2018, although it will be a couple thousand more than last year.

 

[4thline]

This is a nice middle ground post, and there are things I totally agree with.

But for me, case numbers, or case % infected is moot, and testing has been a giant waste of resources. The 2 most important things to monitor are medical capacity, and whether or not overall deaths from all causes has gone up solely as a result of Covid.

We can't call it a pandemic if there are no excess deaths over and above normal annual numbers. And right now, this is exactly what we are seeing - very few excess deaths above prior year numbers..

Lack of excess deaths is a demonstration of success, not of lack of severity. It's like a kid being made to wear a helmet against their will getting cranked in the head with a baseball bat, popping up unscathed and saying "See, it didn't hurt, I told you I didn't need the helmet, the bat isn't that hard!"

Here's the kid with a helmet

And here's the cool neighbour kid whose free thinking parents let them go without
Tableau Public

 

[stealth1]

The restaurant across the street has been open, but he's going under shortly.

It was filled nightly pre pandemic, and now he has close to the same expenses but 1/3 of the pre-pandemic income. You keep saying they are doing OK. They are not doing OK.

You can't open up everything with no restrictions and think that cases would stay the same. Its mind boggling that not only do you think all businesses should be open but also not limits. People are going to get sick anyways so why does it matter