Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Part VIII - The Long Winter is Here

[stealth1]

I've found this strange as well. The people today that think they're "standing up to the system" believe DIRECTLY what corporations, Hollywood, Education, and their government tell them. Those questioning the elite ruling class are the new "sheep". Strange times.

I've also noticed that most of the the people I know agreeing with restrictions are people with no kids that love working from home.

I don't work from home and have a child and I don't necessarily agree with lockdowns. Having limited capacity for businesses, wearing masks and social distancing I am agree with.

I'm just trying my best to live my life with what we are being told to do. I just want this to end so so I by summer I can go back to the amusement parks I missed out on this year.

 

[stealth1]

"Government isn't our parents. Now do exactly as government says without questioning any of it or exercising any personal autonomy."

Had we all just kept wearing masks, did social distancing and limiting who came into our homes we wouldn't be in this situation. There is a reason majority of cases are from family gatherings. People need to limit them as much as possible so businesses can get back to being open.

 

[PromisedLand]

"Government isn't our parents. Now do exactly as government says without questioning any of it or exercising any personal autonomy."

question all you want just don't spread the virus; unless there is some special cure you have that has been bestowed to you by aliens such that you are immune and are not going to spread the virus - do your thing. you are unique

I don't care what you do as long as it doesn't impact me adversely; however, you spreading the virus does impact me and the ones i love adversely so i will call you out every time

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

first.
From Southern Hemisphere, Hints That U.S. May Be Spared Flu On Top Of COVID-19


Second,
With work from home, less inter-mingling (by some folks); social distancing, hand washing, giving hygine more importance than normal, etc... could have also led to less flu cases.

how does flu spread? I assume people to people; with a lot of folks working from home (those who can) that is a sizable population getting away from flu


Third,
Winter this year has been relatively speaking much warmer thus far (thank god);

So we should keep these measures permanently. We could save thousands of lives every year.

 

[PromisedLand]

So we should keep these measures permanently. We could save thousands of lives every year.

There are flu vaccines that help. Influenza is also not as bad or contagious as covid.

Also, people get help in the hospitals during influenza as most don't require hospitalizations unlike covid.

Do you ever use logic to think things through?

People who immune systems are compromised no matter the help in the hospitals they will die regardless; but people who can be saved with hospital help why not save them?

Same is the story with influenza; people that get hospital help still pass away anyway, but most after the flu shot, don't have adverse impact on their health. Hospitals are not overburdened.

The logic is simple:

Influenza is not as contagious or dangerous; businesses can remain open, and people can get help via a flu shot or in the hospital without over burdening the healthcare system
People that will succumb to influenza regardless of the flu shot or hospital care are going to die science isn't as advanced to save them.

Covid on the other hand is a different story.

I just don't f***ing understand people's obsession with comparing covid to influenza. how thick in the skull does one have to be to compare covid with flu.

 

[justashadowof]

So we should keep these measures permanently. We could save thousands of lives every year.

Imagine that there really are people fine with that. Perhaps they're not thinking about what this actually means.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Had we all just kept wearing masks, did social distancing and limiting who came into our homes we wouldn't be in this situation. There is a reason majority of cases are from family gatherings. People need to limit them as much as possible so businesses can get back to being open.

No one was wearing masks back in May when the curve started to flatten and it almost completely flattened after the most restrictive lockdowns were lifted June 19. It wasn't until September that things started to spike again and masks were mandated in most places in July/August. As far as I know, people still socially distance and there have been rule breakers regarding home gatherings since the beginning.

Personally, I don't think the covid measures have done F all to stop the virus. It ran roughshod through our most vulnerable back in the Spring, then petered out in the Summer *as predicted* with the hot weather, people spending more time outdoors, getting more sun then came back as a bigger second wave in the Fall *as predicted* but now with less deaths because a lot of the vulnerable were ravaged in the first wave.

Basically, the virus did what it wanted and panned out exactly like every previous pandemic. Our measures probably helped a little but not much.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I don't work from home and have a child and I don't necessarily agree with lockdowns. Having limited capacity for businesses, wearing masks and social distancing I am agree with.

I'm just trying my best to live my life with what we are being told to do. I just want this to end so so I by summer I can go back to the amusement parks I missed out on this year.

I hate to break it to you but if our goal is to get to zero cases or herd immunity through vaccination before restrictions are lifted and companies start operating normally, there is little to no chance you're going to be enjoying amusement parks next Summer.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

There are flu vaccines that help. Influenza is also not as bad or contagious as covid.

Also, people get help in the hospitals during influenza as most don't require hospitalizations unlike covid.

Do you ever use logic to think things through?

I’ve always been curious where the precise line is. With Covid it’s “grandma is more important than the economy”. Whenever I ask why doesn’t this apply every flu/pneumonia season, I’m told “that’s only tens of thousands of grandmas, so... they just don’t count for some reason”. Seems strange. I’m curious what the exact number is.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

There are flu vaccines that help. Influenza is also not as bad or contagious as covid.

And yet it kills over 8,000 Canadians every year.

Also, people get help in the hospitals during influenza as most don't require hospitalizations unlike covid.

Simply not true. Our ICUs are flooded with flu patients every single flu season.

Do you ever use logic to think things through?

I personally think I'm being logical. Is there a reason you need to insult people over a difference in opinion?

People who immune systems are compromised no matter the help in the hospitals they will die regardless; but people who can be saved with hospital help why not save them?

When did I say otherwise? I've said about 50 times in these threads that we should focus all of our efforts on protecting the vulnerable, provide rapid testing and let the rest of us get back to 100% normal.

Same is the story with influenza; people that get hospital help still pass away anyway, but most after the flu shot, don't have adverse impact on their health. Hospitals are not overburdened.

Hospitals were never overburdened over covid either, at least in Canada.

The logic is simple:

Influenza is not as contagious or dangerous; businesses can remain open, and people can get help via a flu shot or in the hospital without over burdening the healthcare system
People that will succumb to influenza regardless of the flu shot or hospital care are going to die science isn't as advanced to save them.

Covid on the other hand is a different story.

So let's pick a number. 11,000 people have died from Covid so far, the flu kills 8,000 people every year. Our death rate is almost exactly double Sweden's, so let's say we saved 11,000 people by locking down (most of these people will die anyway soon or would have from the flu but that's a more complicated analysis). So then let's assume that we could similarly save half of all flu deaths every year. That's 4,000 people or 36.3% of the covid people we temporarily saved. If we were willing to spend $381B (!!) so far due to covid and put thousands of people out of of business and locked people down in certain ways, why didn't we spend $138B last year, lock down a little less and put 40% of the businesses we ruined for covid over the flu?

Dunno, sounds kinda heartless to me you're not willing to do whatever it takes for the 8,000 Canadians lost to the flu every year considering earlier in this thread you said our restrictions were at least in part responsible for the lack of flu cases this year.

I just don't f***ing understand

You seem mad.

people's obsession with comparing covid to influenza. how thick in the skull does one have to be to compare covid with flu.

No one's comparing covid to flu. I am comparing our overreaction to covid to a complete lack of action over flu and it's only one example. I could have used the leading cause of death in Canada (heart disease). Close all McDonald's and make chips, cigarettes and alcohol illegal and I bet we could halve them.

 

[IPS]

Simply not true. Our ICUs are flooded with flu patients every single flu season.

The 2018 flu specifically reeked absolute havoc on hospitals all over USA and Canada. Barely anybody batted an eye...

Nowadays all of a sudden everyone's an expert on managing hospital capacity.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I’ve always been curious where the precise line is. With Covid it’s “grandma is more important than the economy”. Whenever I ask why doesn’t this apply every flu/pneumonia season, I’m told “that’s only tens of thousands of grandmas, so... they just don’t count for some reason”. Seems strange. I’m curious what the exact number is.

Careful, you're "comparing the flu to covid" which makes you worse than Hitler.

 

[stealth1]

No one was wearing masks back in May when the curve started to flatten and it almost completely flattened after the most restrictive lockdowns were lifted June 19. It wasn't until September that things started to spike again and masks were mandated in most places in July/August. As far as I know, people still socially distance and there have been rule breakers regarding home gatherings since the beginning.

Personally, I don't think the covid measures have done F all to stop the virus. It ran roughshod through our most vulnerable back in the Spring, then petered out in the Summer *as predicted* with the hot weather, people spending more time outdoors, getting more sun then came back as a bigger second wave in the Fall *as predicted* but now with less deaths because a lot of the vulnerable were ravaged in the first wave.

Basically, the virus did what it wanted and panned out exactly like every previous pandemic. Our measures probably helped a little but not much.

I think in public the measures have worked well. Very few cases are coming from public businesses. They have to figure out a way to slow the spread in private homes. As someone posted before up to 80% of cases come from home. That means for every 1 person who gets in public they spread to 4 at home.

People need to stop with the gatherings as it will help.

As far as amusement parks go, all I can do is hope for the best my next summer. I can always go to Montreal for one. I prefer to be able to get the ones in the US as they are much better. Wonderland isn't that great.

 

[PromisedLand]

I’ve always been curious where the precise line is. With Covid it’s “grandma is more important than the economy”. Whenever I ask why doesn’t this apply every flu/pneumonia season, I’m told “that’s only tens of thousands of grandmas, so... they just don’t count for some reason”. Seems strange. I’m curious what the exact number is.

Flu/pneimonia seasons the grandma that is going to die will die regardless of any medical help. Flu shots and advances in medical science also helps most grandma not die including other folks with compromised immune systems

You don't overburden the healthcare system and the economy can function without any significant impact on public health.

Covid on the other hand is a different story; it is more contagious; it is brand new we do not know what it does, it takes time to understand what potential impact can it have on your health regardless where you are grandma's age, middle age or young.

Recovered from covid is not the same as recovered from flu/pneumonia; we don't know what "recovery" from covid even means; the virus is less than 1 yr old and we are still studying the impact.
What they don't tell you about surviving COVID-19

% of hospitalizations due to covid are much grater than flu/pneumonia; the death rate due to covid > than flu/pneumonia.

There is no established science yet for covid that says that long term health impact is nothing; get it and it won't screw you over or your genetic structure such that when you pass on your genes to your kids it won't have any impact on your kids i.e. you won't have to spend time running between cheo for your child's health (or your own health) and at the same time pay your bills.

Covid impacts people with high blood pressure, diabetes, etc... more severely than flu/pneumonia.

What percentage of Canadian population has the following:

• Blood Pressure
• Diabetes
• Overweight
• etc...

what % of people are now getting hospitalized (recover or not) due to covid compared to influenza? Without knowing answers to these questions and yelling "Economy" wouldn't help.

Economy is because of people; people are not because of economy.

Canadians have so far been lucky (mostly) compared to the US; if we did the same thing that US did then we would have been more screwed. Look south of the border.

"Death" isn't the only adverse outcome of covid; there are other health imapcts (read the link above).

If you have a PHD in sciences to disprove that link then go ahead disprove it; win the nobel prize and save the planet form this virus.

 

[Nineteen67]

first.
From Southern Hemisphere, Hints That U.S. May Be Spared Flu On Top Of COVID-19


Second,
With work from home, less inter-mingling (by some folks); social distancing, hand washing, giving hygine more importance than normal, etc... could have also led to less flu cases.

how does flu spread? I assume people to people; with a lot of folks working from home (those who can) that is a sizable population getting away from flu


Third,
Winter this year has been relatively speaking much warmer thus far (thank god);

Correct, the southern hemisphere had very little flu and we are seeing very little as well. Makes one wonder if Fauci’s ever looks at data or just spews stuff off the top of his head.


I have asked some DRs if there is any truth to theory behind respiratory viruses actually compete against each other and SARS is winning or do they communicate with each other?

Where I live, coronavirus is spreading, but the flu is almost non-existent; that’s with social distancing, smaller crowds, masks, and hygiene. I don’t think mitigation is the main reason we are not seeing it. The good news is our hospitals are still operating at similar levels to previous years. Hopefully that remains the case, as we project to plateau for ~ 10 more days and then see the descent.

 

[PromisedLand]

Correct, the southern hemisphere had very little flu and we are seeing very little as well. Makes one wonder if Fauci’s ever looks at data or just spews stuff off the top of his head.


I have asked some DRs if there is any truth to theory behind respiratory viruses actually compete against each other and SARS is winning or do they communicate with each other?

Where I live, coronavirus is spreading, but the flu is almost non-existent; that’s with social distancing, smaller crowds, masks, and hygiene. I don’t think mitigation is the main reason we are not seeing it. The good news is our hospitals are still operating at similar levels to previous years. Hopefully that remains the case, as we project to plateau for ~ 10 more days and then see the descent.

I don't know. I am not positioned to answer that scientific query; I do not have the expertise. Whether sars-cov2 is winning or communicating with flu virus is a research question that probably will take time to answer; and I don't think it will be the general practitioners who will be able to answer that question anyway; it will be bio-chem PHDs who spend their time in the lab studying molecular structures who will answer that IMO.

That said, logically speaking, social interaction I assume at present is not the same as during normal times. Also, thus far we have had a milder winter; perhaps when it gets very cold; flu cases will also rise (who knows?).

Heck, more hygienic practice right now due to the fear of covid might have also contributed to less flu cases; these are guesses and we don't know. Research question that will have to be analyzed and studied.

 

[Sens]

The flu is significantly down because of covid protocols
But I read people complaint about not social distance or mask wearing all the time

interesting to me

 

[Jojalu]

And yet it kills over 8,000 Canadians every year.



Simply not true. Our ICUs are flooded with flu patients every single flu season.



I personally think I'm being logical. Is there a reason you need to insult people over a difference in opinion?



When did I say otherwise? I've said about 50 times in these threads that we should focus all of our efforts on protecting the vulnerable, provide rapid testing and let the rest of us get back to 100% normal.



Hospitals were never overburdened over covid either, at least in Canada.



So let's pick a number. 11,000 people have died from Covid so far, the flu kills 8,000 people every year. Our death rate is almost exactly double Sweden's, so let's say we saved 11,000 people by locking down (most of these people will die anyway soon or would have from the flu but that's a more complicated analysis). So then let's assume that we could similarly save half of all flu deaths every year. That's 4,000 people or 36.3% of the covid people we temporarily saved. If we were willing to spend $381B (!!) so far due to covid and put thousands of people out of of business and locked people down in certain ways, why didn't we spend $138B last year, lock down a little less and put 40% of the businesses we ruined for covid over the flu?

Dunno, sounds kinda heartless to me you're not willing to do whatever it takes for the 8,000 Canadians lost to the flu every year considering earlier in this thread you said our restrictions were at least in part responsible for the lack of flu cases this year.



You seem mad.



No one's comparing covid to flu. I am comparing our overreaction to covid to a complete lack of action over flu and it's only one example. I could have used the leading cause of death in Canada (heart disease). Close all McDonald's and make chips, cigarettes and alcohol illegal and I bet we could halve them.

It would be impossible to prove, but what the total number would have been if we took no measures could have been worse.

Now we will never know because they chose this path.

The flu kills 3000 in Canada per year. Pneumonia kills another 6000.

A lot of people who succumb to the flu, develop pneumonia after trying to fight off the flu. Which really is what is happening to most Covid patients that die. Most Covid deaths are a result of developing pneumonia to go along with Covid and then the body has very little chance of survival if you have other conditions, or you are over 80

 

[PromisedLand]

And yet it kills over 8,000 Canadians every year.



Simply not true. Our ICUs are flooded with flu patients every single flu season.

Healthcare system is not overburdened; so far hospitals don't have to use triage. If flu runs rampant this time around with covid too; you will see.

I personally think I'm being logical. Is there a reason you need to insult people over a difference in opinion?



When did I say otherwise? I've said about 50 times in these threads that we should focus all of our efforts on protecting the vulnerable, provide rapid testing and let the rest of us get back to 100% normal.



Hospitals were never overburdened over covid either, at least in Canada.




So let's pick a number. 11,000 people have died from Covid so far, the flu kills 8,000 people every year. Our death rate is almost exactly double Sweden's, so let's say we saved 11,000 people by locking down (most of these people will die anyway soon or would have from the flu but that's a more complicated analysis). So then let's assume that we could similarly save half of all flu deaths every year. That's 4,000 people or 36.3% of the covid people we temporarily saved. If we were willing to spend $381B (!!) so far due to covid and put thousands of people out of of business and locked people down in certain ways, why didn't we spend $138B last year, lock down a little less and put 40% of the businesses we ruined for covid over the flu?

Dunno, sounds kinda heartless to me you're not willing to do whatever it takes for the 8,000 Canadians lost to the flu every year considering earlier in this thread you said our restrictions were at least in part responsible for the lack of flu cases this year.

So how do you protect the vulnurable? you lock them down? you want to do to them that you don't want done to yourself?

Hospitals are not overbudened yet with covid in Canada yet thanks to the measures and I think most of the Canadians are not as thick as the people south of the border.

Just do the math; look at the % of people hospitalized due to covid; and now scale it to the entire population; and then see if we open everything up would healthcare system be over burdened?

Here is the case for US


Compare that now to us? (look at hospitalizations picking up again)
Epidemiological summary of COVID-19 cases in Canada - Canada.ca

based on the recent data about 8% of people required hospitalizations on average (this increases with age - scroll down in the link i provided for Canada) and it includes everyone not just older folks; if you scale the percentages to demographics in Canada by age; you will see that healthcare system will get over burdened.

You seem mad.



No one's comparing covid to flu. I am comparing our overreaction to covid to a complete lack of action over flu and it's only one example. I could have used the leading cause of death in Canada (heart disease). Close all McDonald's and make chips, cigarettes and alcohol illegal and I bet we could halve them.

and this is the reason i am a little ticked off; first you say you are not comparing covid to flu; but then you say there is overreaction to covide compared to flu

leading heart disease example is not relevant here; I choose or not choose to eat McDonalds, smoke, lead a sedantary lifestyle;

When it comes to getting covid; it isn't a matter of choice; i am sure everyone will choose not to get covid but are still getting it due to irresponsible actions of some people.

This is a prime example where moronic actions by small fraction of people is impacting a large majority.

 

[Nineteen67]

I don't know. I am not positioned to answer that scientific query; I do not have the expertise. Whether sars-cov2 is winning or communicating with flu virus is a research question that probably will take time to answer; and I don't think it will be the general practitioners who will be able to answer that question anyway; it will be bio-chem PHDs who spend their time in the lab studying molecular structures who will answer that IMO.

That said, logically speaking, social interaction I assume at present is not the same as during normal times. Also, thus far we have had a milder winter; perhaps when it gets very cold; flu cases will also rise (who knows?).

Heck, more hygienic practice right now due to the fear of covid might have also contributed to less flu cases; these are guesses and we don't know. Research question that will have to be analyzed and studied.

Our winter, in No Alabama is about the same and yet very little flu spreading.

I don’t have flu vaccine rates yet, but anecdotally from what I’m hearing they are down a little this year.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

It would be impossible to prove, but what the total number would have been if we took no measures could have been worse.

Now we will never know because they chose this path.

Agreed on that. This will be analyzed to death. Hopefully that helps us respond better next time.

The flu kills 3000 in Canada per year. Pneumonia kills another 6000.

Just saying, the government puts them both together so it's more accurate to say "flu and flu related pneumonia" deaths.

Leading causes of death, total population, by age group

A lot of people who succumb to the flu, develop pneumonia after trying to fight off the flu. Which really is what is happening to most Covid patients that die. Most Covid deaths are a result of developing pneumonia to go along with Covid and then the body has very little chance of survival if you have other conditions, or you are over 80

We're probably saying the same thing I think. Either way, I think we're focusing too much on the flu. I only used flu as an example because it was already being discussed by other posters regarding how cases were down possibly due to covid restrictions. My arguments could be applied to any number of causes of death we don't seem to take as seriously. Comparing flu to covid triggers some people because early in the pandemic people were literally comparing the two. Anyone that bothers to understand my points would understand I'm not doing that.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

delete (duplicate)

 

[Jojalu]

Agreed on that. This will be analyzed to death. Hopefully that helps us respond better next time.



Just saying, the government puts them both together so it's more accurate to say "flu and flu related pneumonia" deaths.

Leading causes of death, total population, by age group



We're probably saying the same thing I think. Either way, I think we're focusing too much on the flu. I only used flu as an example because it was already being discussed by other posters regarding how cases were down possibly due to covid restrictions. My arguments could be applied to any number of causes of death we don't seem to take as seriously. Comparing flu to covid triggers some people because early in the pandemic people were literally comparing the two. Anyone that bothers to understand my points would understand I'm not doing that.

Agreed!

It is borderline morbid how obsessed we have become with death. I guess I was as guilty as anyone on not understanding the consequenses of going to work, out, while being sick. I will at least take more precautions going forward.

 

[Kiwi]

I think in public the measures have worked well. Very few cases are coming from public businesses. They have to figure out a way to slow the spread in private homes. As someone posted before up to 80% of cases come from home. That means for every 1 person who gets in public they spread to 4 at home.

People need to stop with the gatherings as it will help.

As far as amusement parks go, all I can do is hope for the best my next summer. I can always go to Montreal for one. I prefer to be able to get the ones in the US as they are much better. Wonderland isn't that great.

It's hardly surprising it's mainly happening in homes

You shut people in homes together for weeks on end i'd be surprised if it wasn't 80% or higher

This thing is highly contagious, once it's heavily seeded in the population I don't think there is much you can do about it, if you have people interacting you've got problems

Even countries in Europe with mask mandates enforced by law and pretty draconian lockdowns seem to be having trouble, it even seems that way from state to state in the US with California getting whacked

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Healthcare system is not overburdened; so far hospitals don't have to use triage. If flu runs rampant this time around with covid too; you will see.

Not really the point but I doubt we will see since flu rates are down 98%.

So how do you protect the vulnurable? you lock them down? you want to do to them that you don't want done to yourself?

Thanks for asking and I've posted my solution about 10 times already. I would take about 10% of the ridiculous amount of money we spent on covid with the current approaches, hire thousands of long term care facility workers, double or triple their pay or whatever it takes to make that crap job worth their time and worth the risk during a pandemic. Focus on making rapid testing available. No one goes into a long term care facility (guests or workers) without a clear test, every single day and no one works at multiple facilities. If these two measures had been taken (rapid tests, focus on long term health care facilities), we would not be in this predicament.

Hospitals are not overbudened yet with covid in Canada yet thanks to the measures and I think most of the Canadians are not as thick as the people south of the border.

Just do the math; look at the % of people hospitalized due to covid; and now scale it to the entire population; and then see if we open everything up would healthcare system be over burdened?

I literally did the math for you. Comparing our rates to Sweden's gives you a good idea how much our measures may have helped. About 50%.

Here is the case for US

Compare that now to us? (look at hospitalizations picking up again)

Epidemiological summary of COVID-19 cases in Canada - Canada.ca

based on the recent data about 8% of people required hospitalizations on average (this increases with age - scroll down in the link i provided for Canada) and it includes everyone not just older folks; if you scale the percentages to demographics in Canada by age; you will see that healthcare system will get over burdened.

The US has poverty imbalance and lack of universal health care issues we don't have. Sweden is a much better example and yes, I'm admitting we did about twice as good. That still doesn't equal overburdened hospitals. Theirs never were. Did I mention we also happened to spend over $20M *per person* we've saved?

and this is the reason i am a little ticked off;

But you don't have to be. I'm following the rules, I wear a mask, like others I just want to get through this. I'm not your enemy here. I'm merely offering opinions you clearly don't agree with and I'm OK with that.

first you say you are not comparing covid to flu; but then you say there is overreaction to covide compared to flu

leading heart disease example is not relevant here; I choose or not choose to eat McDonalds, smoke, lead a sedantary lifestyle;

When it comes to getting covid; it isn't a matter of choice; i am sure everyone will choose not to get covid but are still getting it due to irresponsible actions of some people.

This is a prime example where moronic actions by small fraction of people is impacting a large majority.

But you do have the option of protecting yourself from covid similar to how you can protect yourself from heart disease. If you're not comfortable around other people, don't be around other people. And soon, you will hopefully have the option of immunizing yourself against other people.