Connor McDavid will go down as the 2nd best player of all-time

[crowfish]

It is an odd coincidence that he's been a great player at every level and his team had never won, even in juniors with all the other future NHLers he played with at Erie. Certainly raises the question of whether his point totals are reflective of his team impact

Was it a glitch in the matrix when he won the World Juniors in 2015? You would think his loser energy would have just disqualified Canada on the spot.

 

[authentic]

This is kind of the story of Lemieux after 1995-96.

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In 1996-97 season he is on a 144 point pace through 49 games. 18 points ahead of anyone besides linemate Jagr.

He put up 36 in his final 27 games (109 point pace)

In 1996-97, 2000-01, and 2002-03 he started the year at a torrid pace before playing at a mortal level the last 25-40% of the season. He even slowed down quite a bit in 1995-96.

He just wasn't capable of the grind anymore.

Crazy that he was still so talented that he had peak Connor McDavid level production at those ages and not close to full health either.

 

[crowfish]

We are holding the fact the McDavid hasn't lead a team to a championship against him yes. That happens in every sport, you have to win a championship to be considered the best ever until then he's going to be behind other greats that have won.

Anointing him the greatest of all time based on regular season number is the madness!

It doesn't happen in every sport though. The fans have figured out this concept in the only semi-comparable sport (baseball). Barry Bonds still gets debated for GOAT status to this day, and that is with a steroid scandal attached to his name. He would be the consensus GOAT easily without the steroid connection. He never won a championship. You have guys like Ohtani, who will most likely go down as the greatest of this modern era (and possibly all time). You would never hear a serious fan say, "Ohtani is amazing, but until he leads the Dodgers to a championship, he is not the greatest!"

It is a complete nonsense way to evaluate a player. Championships are a part of a player's legacy, but in no way are they a deal breaker. There are way more factors than that. For example, McDavid could realistically end his career with zero Cups AND have the best postseason stats of anyone in his era. It would make no sense to use the no Cup against him the same way it would for guys who were actually bad in the playoffs like Thornton or Dionne. The most important factor will always be individual stats/awards because that is the only factor that is truly in the player's control.

 

[authentic]

He didn't take advantage of the training available to him in 1995.

It was a major factor in his 1997 retirement. He didn't have the work ethic to keep up his training program.

It's why he kept his PP dominance until 2003, but lost his EV dominance in 1993.

Those stats you showed he still looked pretty dominant at ES his first 49 games in 1996-97

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At 31 years of age in a lower scoring league he was more dominant at even strength than anyone this season while his broken down body still held up.

 

[Coffey]

Here's what McDavid's legacy could look like after the end of the 2023-24 regular season:

If he wins the Art Ross trophy...

• This would be McDavid's 6th win
• Only Wayne Gretzky would have more Art Ross trophies (10x)
• McDavid would be tied for second place all-time with Gordie Howe & Mario Lemieux
• Assessment: roughly a 50% chance

If he finishes 2nd in scoring...

• This would be McDavid's 8th top-two finish (all consecutive)
• Only Wayne Gretzky (13x) would have more top-two finishes in the scoring race
• McDavid would be tied for second place all-time with Phil Esposito
• Assessment: roughly a 75% chance

If he finishes 3rd in scoring...

• This would McDavid's 8th top-three finish (all consecutive)
• Only Wayne Gretzky (15x) and Gordie Howe (12x) would have more top-three finishes in the scoring race
• McDavid would be tied for second place with Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, Phil Esposito, and Stan Mikita
• Assessment: virtually certain

If he leads the league in assists...

• This would McDavid's 4th time leading the league
• Only Wayne Gretzky (16x) would have led the league in assists more often
• McDavid would be in sole possession of 2nd place (he's currently tied with several players for 2nd place including Lemieux, Jagr, Oates, etc)
• Assessment: virtually certain

If he leads the league in points per game...

• This would McDavid's 6th time leading the league
• Only Wayne Gretzky (11x), Gordie Howe (7x) and Mario Lemieux (7x) would have led the league in PPG more often
• McDavid would be in sole possession of 2nd place (he's currently tied with Sidney Crosby and Phil Esposito for 4th place)
• Assessment: better than 50/50

If he leads the league in ES scoring...

• This would be his 5th time leading the league in ES scoring
• Only Wayne Gretzky (11x) would have led the league in ES scoring more often (NOTE - I only have data going back to 1950)
• McDavid would be in sole possession of 2nd place (he's currently tied with Gordie Howe and Phil Esposito for 2nd place)
• Assessment: roughly a 50% chance

If he leads the league in PP scoring...

• This would be his 4th time leading the league in PP scoring
• Only Phil Esposito (7x), Wayne Gretzky (5x), and Gordie Howe (5x) would have led the league in PP scoring more often (NOTE - I only have data going back to 1950)
• McDavid would be tied for 4th place (with Mario Lemieux)
• Assessment: roughly a 25% chance

If he wins the Hart trophy...

• This would be his 4th time winning the Hart trophy
• Only Wayne Gretzky (9x) and Gordie Howe (6x) would have more wins
• McDavid would be tied for 3rd place (with Eddie Shore)
• Assessment: under 50% as of today, but if he comes back to take the Art Ross trophy, this will rise

If he's a finalist (top three) for the Hart trophy...

• This would be his 6th time as a Hart trophy finalist
• Only Gordie Howe (12x), Wayne Gretzky (11x), Bobby Hull (8x), Bobby Orr (7x), Mario Lemieux (7x), Sidney Crosby (7x), Jean Beliveau (7x) and Eddie Shore (7x) would have more years as a Hart finalist
• McDavid would be tied for 9th place (with Maurice Richard and Jaromir Jagr)
• Assessment: virtually certain

If he wins the Lindsay (Pearson) trophy...

• This would be his 5th time winning the Lindsay (Pearson) trophy
• This would tie McDavid for 1st place all-time (with Wayne Gretzky) - "all time" going back to 1971
• Assessment: probably around 50/50
• NOTE: the historical voting data for the Lindsay trophy is incomplete. But if McDavid is a finalist this year, which appears to be virtually certain, he'll have more years as a finalist than Crosby, Ovechkin, and Jagr

If he's named first-team all-star...

• This would be his 6th time earning a spot on the first year-end all-star team
• Among centres, only Wayne Gretzky (8x) would have more
• McDavid would be tied for 2nd place (with Phil Esposito)
• Assessment: coin flip between McDavid and MacKinnon for the first team

Seems like something a player does every year. Pfff

 

[cupface52]

We are holding the fact the McDavid hasn't lead a team to a championship against him yes. That happens in every sport, you have to win a championship to be considered the best ever until then he's going to be behind other greats that have won.

Anointing him the greatest of all time based on regular season number is the madness!

Same reason Dan Marino is never mentioned as an all-time great. No one cares if a guy can't win it all.

Barry Sanders. Randy Moss.

Goalies are the QB equivalent.

 

[JTB1974]

Fair or not he has to win Stanley Cups. Especially if you want to move him past players like Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, and Gordie Howe.

 

[Derailed75]

Barry Sanders. Randy Moss.

Goalies are the QB equivalent.

Jerry Rice and Micheal Irvin, Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton are thought to be ahead of Moss and Sanders because of rings!

 

[cupface52]

Jerry Rice and Micheal Irvin, Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton are thought to be ahead of Moss and Sanders because of rings!

Jerry Rice isn't ahead of Moss due to rings, that's a fallacy. Rice has 5000 more receiving yards than any other WR, or 30% more. He also has 41 more receiving TDs than second, or 26% more. And no one considers Irvin > Moss.You also have Owens and Fitzgerald firmly ahead of Irvin, neither winning the Superbowl. Smith and Payton being ahead of Sanders has nothing to do with rings either.

Nice try though.

 

[Crow]

Jerry Rice isn't ahead of Moss due to rings, that's a fallacy. Rice has 5000 more receiving yards than any other WR, or 30% more. He also has 41 more receiving TDs than second, or 26% more. And no one considers Irvin > Moss.You also have Owens and Fitzgerald firmly ahead of Irvin, neither winning the Superbowl. Smith and Payton being ahead of Sanders has nothing to do with rings either.

Nice try though.

Wow I’m sorry to get further off topic but people have smith ahead of sanders? I didn’t think most people even considered smith top 5. I personally have sanders slightly ahead of Payton too and I’m a bears fan.

 

[cupface52]

Wow I’m sorry to get further off topic but people have smith ahead of sanders? I didn’t think most people even considered smith top 5. I personally have sanders slightly ahead of Payton too and I’m a bears fan.

It's the whole, "You can't be in a conversation with the greats without championships, this is true in all North American sports". Clearly that's not the case.

Rice is basically the Gretzky of WRs, Moss is generally the solid #2, despite no SB ring. I don't know too much about football, but enough to know Sanders is there among, Brown, Payton, and Smith, and it wouldn't be outlandish to call Sanders #1 despite no SB ring.

 

[norrisnick]

Yeah, Sanders could have crushed every record had he played as long as Smith. He realized the team he was on could never win so he said "f*** it, I'm out" while he could still walk and talk.

Would be like Hasek had he decided to retire rather than force a trade to the Wings. I don't think anyone considers the '02 Cup as anything other than a minor footnote for his accolades.

 

[NVious]

He'll obviously never surpass JT Miller, but he can carve out his own legacy. Too many times we ask "who is the next JT?" Instead of just appreciating who is the first McDavid.

 

[Montreal Shadow]

PPO across the league was at 336 per team in 96-97 and last season it was 252 and trending to around the same amount.

Yes, across the league, meaning all top-tier players benefitted from this, not just Lemieux, and he still made everyone else appear like a bunch of minor-leaguers when he wasn't on his hospital bed.

I guess your Zach Hyman is a mid tier 50 goal scorer eh?

Huh, yes? Are you joking? This is Cheechoo all over again. Coincidence that in the season that McDavid is going to get over 100 assists, Hyman suddenly turns into a 50-goal guy?

I watched hockey in the 70s and 80s and plenty of not so great guys scored alot the game was very sloppy and even for most of Marios actual playing career that was the trend.

Which doesn't matter because Lemieux played until 2005-06 and even in his late 30s was still almost a PPG. The man finished 8th in scoring in the DPE despite missing 15 games and had a legitimate shot at the title at age 38 against guys like prime Thornton and Forsberg. He didn't play in the 1940s.

Lemieux would torch the current league with ease. He'd have absolutely no problem with the "defensive" systems when dudes like Makar, Hughes, and Karlsson skate up and down the ice with impunity and join rushes all the time. if anything, the league would be much more friendly today to his style of play than it was in the late 90s and early 2000s. It's more welcoming to skill than arguably ever before.

 

[Spirits]

Goalies are the QB equivalent.

QB is the equivalent.

 

[67 others]

There, I said it.

The big 4 has been mythologized and deified but it’s been fine since no player has made a compelling argument to question the sanctity of it until now.

Crosby made an argument for 5th best of all-time but even without losing those three seasons of his prime, I don’t think he was ever a serious threat to Howe/Orr/Super Mario.

McDavid is peaking higher than Howe right now. He’s simply a better player and I’m done pretending that he’s not. (Insert Joker meme).

Howe has legendary longevity but Connor has been very healthy and shows no signs of slowing down. Even if he doesn’t match Howes’ longevity (who can) I value the peak more.

Also, far be it for me to discredit the OG’s, we simply have to factor into the equation that Howe played in a 6 team league against almost exclusively Canadians. We simply have to acknowledge how much more competition McDavid has. He’s being trailed in the scoring race by a German, Russian, and Czech. That simply didn’t happen in Howes’ day.

Connor isn’t nor will he peak higher than Mario or #4 but neither player reached even 1000 games.

If McDavid wins 7-8 scoring titles and 5-6 MVP’s and plays 1400 games I think you have to put him number #2 all-time.

Either way, it’s incredible what we are witnessing right now.

Thoughts? Will McDavid be #2 of all-time when the dust settles?

Howe was more than just longevity. His best seasons don't look like much because of the dual fact that seasons were shorter and the game was hyperdefensive with 6 teams who knew each other well. But 95 points in 70 games back then was akin to 150+ points by more modern standards, and he played a game Mark Messier tried and failed to emulate. And Messier was a hell of a clutch physical player who could score. Think Hart Messier or Hart Lindros except better for 5 years and more of an iron man and you have Gordie Howe's peak. And his longevity is only even approached by Ray Bourque and not at all by other forwards. He was top 5 is scoring for 20 straight years.


And I don't disagree Mcdavid will Crack into that untouchable top 4 so much as i believe he will make it a top 5 Conversation

 

[5 Minute Major]

I guess Gordie Howe’s overall game doesn’t matter to some anymore.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

Orr, Lemieux, Howe, and Gretzky will not be unseated by anyone currently playing in the NHL. Recency bias is normal in sports, so I get the allure of saying McDavid is the 2nd best of all time.

Orr completely redefined an entire position and is the best all-around player I've ever watched. Lemieux is the most gifted offensive player in league history. It's hard to fathom what both players would have accomplished beyond what they did had they not have to deal with major injuries/health problems.

Howe is the second best all-around player ever. Gretzly is right behind Mario when it comes to offensive prowess.

McDavid is not anything special as an all-around player and he is not as good offensively as either Mario or Wayne. No way he will end up top-4 ever.

 

[Unspecified]

I would still rather have prime Jagr over prime McDavid.

 

[Foppberg]

Only a child would say that. He’ll never break the top 4

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Mcdavid the second he wins a cup and smythe will make it a big 5. But second best ever? It is now 70 games into the season and he is currently third in scoring. Has a great chance to win but its not 100 and it will go down to the wire. People honestly believe lemieux or wayne would be this late in the season still battling it out for the scoring lead? He will have lost to kucherov, drai and potentially another loss this year. Something impossible for Lemieux. Who was beating out prime Gretzky and Jagr with less games played in those seasons as well. Also lemieux by mcdavids age had two cups and two playoff mvps won in gretzky like fashion. And im not talking about crosby here before some get all riled up. Im comparing mcdavid to lemieux

 

[Toby91ca]

So, I see him getting to #2 as impossible. There is no argument for him to be ahead of Gretzky. Then you have Orr....again, Orr's accomplishments are simply at a level that McDavid will not be able to pass. Hard to compare because he's a Dman and I guess the one argument to be made is longevity, but Orr accomplished so much without needing the longevity. Also, how does he get top 4? I used to think Howe was somewhat overrated until looking into him deeper. His numbers aren't necessarily jaw dropping....yes, he's high on the scoring list, but he played so long.....however, he was winning scoring titles dominating #2 at a rate only Gretzky surpassed. Then you have Lemieux....I guess we could get to an argument here due to Lemieux health issues over his career, but I doubt the majority would end up putting McDavid ahead.....but we'll see how things play out.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

I would still rather have prime Jagr over prime McDavid.

I would rather have a prime Maroon too over McDavid. 3 cups for Maroon. 0 for McDavid.

 

[HFpapi]

Only a child would say that. He’ll never break the top 4

Only a boomer would say this. Lemme guess, you think Cyclone Taylor had the silkiest hands of all time?

McDavid is obviously better than Howe in a vacuum i.e actual hockey ability to the point it's really not even fair to Howe to compare so let's leave that aside.

McDavid has a better than good chance to tie Howe for Art Ross and Hart trophies after only 9 seasons at the age of 27. Gordie did 6 scoring titles in 25 years against a league that never saw a single Russian, Swede, Czech, Fin, German, and barely any Americans either for that matter.

McDavid has three era-adjusted offensive seasons better than Howe's best.

On what basis can McDavid *NEVER* pass Howe?

 

[blundluntman]

Jerry Rice and Micheal Irvin, Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton are thought to be ahead of Moss and Sanders because of rings!

Nobody taken seriously actually thinks Emmitt Smith is ahead of Barry Sanders