Connor McDavid will go down as the 2nd best player of all-time

[wetcoast]

That weak era just doesn’t wow me. In 2010-2011, Perry was the 3rd leading scorer. 35 old year old St. Louis was the runner up. 40 year old Selanne was 8th. Brad Richards was 10th. Ovechkin who was an absolute shell of himself compared to less than even 12 months prior and managed to still finish 7th. Stamkos was sub PPG the entire second half and still finish 5th. That is a sad and pathetic top 10.

So, no I’m not impressed that Crosby couldn’t absolutely mangle inferior competition.

Fair enough on the points scored but you are inferring a lack of talent by another means here and I think it's misplaced.


Well 2 things here,

First he he played in 41 games so how is he going to mangle the competition exactly?

He could have dipped below his then career average and still dominated the field had he stayed healthy.

As to your first point who really cares there are tons of top 10s in history where someone can say really that guy is there and try to discredit the season.

To me it read as an affront to the league dynamics and talent in the league.

Take Perry and Selanne, they were playing on a PP with Getzlaf and Višňovský that was second in the league that year.

 

[wetcoast]

Perhaps it’s just semantics but a niche sport to me suggests something that is so small it’s still in its infancy and played in such small numbers in various pockets that what happens is largely meaningless to what it becomes once it becomes popular and people start developing the best ways to play and what to look for in player. Like if a sport was played in pockets throughout Canada by a couple thousand people, and there was no real sharing between leagues, some random dude dominating wouldn’t mean much if it blew up into a league played by millions. But by the time Howe came about the league was pretty well established and while lots of changes have happened since it was still similar enough to todays game that I think it’s easy to account for the differences, which might not be the case with early 1900s players. The league is still 40% Canadian, and the population pool is still much smaller relative to things like soccer. As I said, we should be able to account for that competition difference because, it’s still a niche sport by the same standards.

I still think that it's fair to call the NHL a niche sport in the 06 era as very few NHL players even came outside of 5 provinces.

But let's not get so hung up on terms as I think the point is that other talent streams contributed later to the NHL so the main point is that it's not an apples to apples argument comparing a guy from say the early 50s to the later 2010s present era.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

This is how I know you just won’t give the player a fair shake.

Because he’s flirting with a 6th Art Ross, 8th consecutive top 2 finish in both raw points and PPG, has 3 Harts, what will be 3 additional finalist nominations + 2 additional top 5 all consecutive, has 4 Lindsays, drops 100+ points virtually every year, is currently 3rd in all-time PPG and building the kind of buffer which could never see him drop back below Orr again, had a 153 point season in today’s environment, and follows it up with a 100+ assist season to be.

What has he ever done? Come on now. Nearly everything he does lately seems to come with the caveat “other than Gretzky, Lemieux, Orr, etc.”

You’re close-minded if you can’t conceive of a timeline where this player accomplishes enough to be ranked ahead of everyone but Gretzky, especially with people who favor both talent and longevity, with minimal what if nonsense.

Maybe it doesn’t happen, but he is the first legitimate threat to breaking up the Big Four as it stands.

well its hard to give him a fair shake when comparing to the 3 best players of all time. many people still argue Orr was better than Gretzky,

but McDavid is just going to leap in front of them? how is that even possible? guy has zero cups all these players have cups.

end of story. to be an all time great you need to win championships and McDavid has none, dont care about all his individual awards. the best of all time are championship winners.

this to me is the hockey version of LeBron vs MJ and LeBron fans just can't convince anyone

 

[Soundwave]

well its hard to give him a fair shake when comparing to the 3 best players of all time. many people still argue Orr was better than Gretzky,

but McDavid is just going to leap in front of them? how is that even possible? guy has zero cups all these players have cups.

end of story. to be an all time great you need to win championships and McDavid has none, dont care about all his individual awards. the best of all time are championship winners.

this to me is the hockey version of LeBron vs MJ and LeBron fans just can't convince anyone

The funny thing with your comment is the exact same thing was said about Jordan when he was McDavid’s age.

“He has no championships, sure he wins scoring titles but he’ll never win like Magic or Bird, nice dunks but not a winner.”

 

[cupface52]

Sure he was in his peak aged 23-25 seasons and the year before had decided to get better at scoring goals and if one watched him play into start the 10-11 season they would have seen how he had hit that extra gear.

10% is being a bit conservative given his career average is 9.4% and this is his peak we are talking about here don't you think but that's okay let's take a 1.31 to 1.16 over 3 season is quite the gap for the post lockout era don't you think?

Especially over a 3 season stretch.

We also have the front end example of the 10-11 season and the 12-13 season where he is dominating the field it's not like it's a one off either.

i'm also not playing the "let's pretend full season game here" but pointing out that he was capable and showed us his dominance but then those injuries.

What's more impressive and important is the 19 year stretch of greatness IMO.

Before last year, McDavid's average on ice 5v5 sh% was 10.1%. Last year it was 9.5%. League average sv% last year was .904, average from '11-'13 was .913. The save% includes PP, but PP scoring differs by about 5% only. So I would say giving Crosby 10% would be more than fair.

Yes, a 12 point difference is decent, but it's not the extreme of 36 points that 1.61 to 1.16 would be.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Oh ya i forgot one either wins a trophy against Mario or Wayne or they are a bum like Yzerman was eh?

Crosby's style of play would be elite in any era, Mario would have problems with today's game and coaches commitment to defense.


Who do you have at 5 and 6th then, I can't think of any player and crosby has had a much better career and is certainly better than Jagr it's not just a "bit ahead"


I wouldn't take a scoring winger playing on an elite line over crosby in that time frame and ehcjk a lot of players and coaches would still have taken Crosby over McDavid for the time period but as the decade got older the torch was handed off to McDavid sure.

But if you want to call Crosby really bad in the a couple of playoff years just be consistent with McDavid for this time frame eh?

Same with Kuch he doesn't go off until the following season.


That's a huge maybe as Mario often didn't play back to back in 67 games that he played in in that time frame and also had already morphed into a PP monster and at ES not so much of an impact.


Crosby doesn't have to be a Bergeron here the comparison is to Mario.


The funny thing is that Mario doesn't have an 11 years of consistency dominance some years he is scoring points playing pond hockey with little to zero effort in playing a 200 foot game.

His R-on, R-Off and ESGF/ESGA numbers are video game ones.

Like I said upthread plunk Crosby into the NHL in 84-85 he probably scores more points than Mario and is a better overall player as well but probably doesn't reach the video game numbers of Mario later on sure.

Lemieux put up points in the dead puck era. Don’t even give me that he wouldn’t be as good in a higher scoring era

 

[GMofOilers]

10 games left, 25 points from 1000

Can he do it this season?

 

[Arthur Morgan]

The funny thing with your comment is the exact same thing was said about Jordan when he was McDavid’s age.

“He has no championships, sure he wins scoring titles but he’ll never win like Magic or Bird, nice dunks but not a winner.”

if and when he wins, opinions towards this will obviously change. I think he will win one, but you just never know. the true greats find ways to win.
just look how people talked about Ovechkin till he won. it makes a big difference

 

[Zalos]

McDavid will definitely win a Cup in his career. Guaranteed. Whether it's in Edmonton or not is the question. I hope he does it there!

As for OP, I still think he's on the same level as Gretzky and Lemieux. The eras are so different. He just won't get 200 points a season in a league filled with better players, better goaltending, and better coaching systems.

He's definitely above Crosby and Howe.

 

[onetweasy]

I certainly think it will be a debate, especially with homer Oiler fans, but the difference in winning, especially with how responsible Crosby is for his teams (Pitt and Canada) winning will be hard to ignore.

Pretty hard for 97 to win anything at an international level when the NHL decided that they didn’t want to participate in them for the better part of a decade.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Mcdavid still in third.... shhhh for now

 

[Offtheboard412]

The 3 short years Crosby had his inflated ppg, his 5on5% was 13.3%. The highest he finished in a season was 11% over a full season. His career average is 9.4%.

So if you want context, normalize his 5on5 on ice sh%. Being generous, 10%, which is higher than his career average. Crosby's ppg goes from 1.61 averaged over the short seasons to 1.31 had he played full seasons. Stamkos has 1.16ppg in that same time.

11/12 and 12/13 were high for sure, but 10/11 his 5 on 5 on ice shooting percentage was 11.6% and in 09/10 over 81 games he was at 11.4%. So he was right around 11.5% over the course of 122 consecutive games.

 

[Dhockey16]

He's gotta win. 97 is easily my favorite player ever but that's the obvious knock at this point. He's already crushed Sid and Ovi in individual awards. Now he's gotta win the big one with a Conn Smythe to boot. He's also the kind of guy who is conscious of his legacy, he's been leading the charge among players for a best-on-best international tournament. No doubt because he wants to show he's the best player there too.

 

[wetcoast]

Lemieux put up points in the dead puck era. Don’t even give me that he wouldn’t be as good in a higher scoring era

Sure in 96-97 he put up 122 points in 76 games which adjusted translates to 127 points.

The top 3 this year translates to roughly the same pace as they will end up around 10+ more points adjusted in 6 more games.

Mario was 31 and Kuch is 30.

 

[Nfumass]

McDavid will definitely win a Cup in his career. Guaranteed. Whether it's in Edmonton or not is the question. I hope he does it there!

As for OP, I still think he's on the same level as Gretzky and Lemieux. The eras are so different. He just won't get 200 points a season in a league filled with better players, better goaltending, and better coaching systems.

He's definitely above Crosby and Howe.

These guys today also play in a more watered down league with 32 teams. Another thing I don’t see mentioned is Mario Orr etc had guys mauling them every single shift, trying take them out of the game with cheap shots etc. Mcdavid, Kuch, Mack dont have to worry about that they are playing in the softest area of hockey ever, the wear and tear isn’t nearly the same for this generation of players. It’s a whole different game when you don’t have to worry about someone trying to take your head off every time you step on the ice.

 

[SuperScript29]

10 games left, 25 points from 1000

Can he do it this season?

He scored 25 points in his last 10 games and he has 10 more games to go. Definitely possible.

 

[JungleBeat]

Best player of all time.

 

[HFpapi]

Taken from Reddit:

McDavid is now only the 7th player to ever have 120 points three or more seasons in a row. He joins:

Gretzky - 13 seasons in a row (lol)
Esposito - 5 seasons in a row
Lafleur - 5 seasons in a row
Lemieux - 3 seasons in a row
Dionne - 3 seasons in a row
Coffey - 3 seasons in a row

Covid likely prevented McDavid from being at 5 in a row right now.

 

[Albatros]

Covid likely prevented McDavid from being at 5 in a row right now.

He would have needed 23 points in 11 games, not impossible but also not likely.

 

[HFpapi]

He would have needed 23 points in 11 games, not impossible but also not likely.

Yeah you're right. I saw McDavid played only 64 games in 19/20 but I thought the season shut down accounted for all of those missed games.

In that case Covid prevented him from being at 4 in a row.

 

[Montreal Shadow]

Sure in 96-97 he put up 122 points in 76 games which adjusted translates to 127 points.

The top 3 this year translates to roughly the same pace as they will end up around 10+ more points adjusted in 6 more games.

Mario was 31 and Kuch is 30.

You’re talking about today’s commitment to defense when it’s currently more run-and-gun than any era aside from the 80s.

5’10" defensemen going up and down the ice, mid-tier players who score 50 goals, and penalties actually getting called for holding and interferences. Lemieux would torch today’s league.

He was also well on his way out in 97 after coming back from cancer and going through several surgeries for his back problems and herniated disc.

 

[Derailed75]

The funny thing with your comment is the exact same thing was said about Jordan when he was McDavid’s age.

“He has no championships, sure he wins scoring titles but he’ll never win like Magic or Bird, nice dunks but not a winner.”

Actually Jordan won his first in his 7th season. McDavid is on season 9 and with the Oilers D and goaltending its not looking to good

 

[HFpapi]

Actually Jordan won his first in his 7th season. McDavid is on season 9 and with the Oilers D and goaltending its not looking to good

Oilers are near the top of the league in both goals against and shots against per game. They are fine.

 

[Soundwave]

Actually Jordan won his first in his 7th season. McDavid is on season 9 and with the Oilers D and goaltending its not looking to good

Jordan was 28 when he won his first title.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Here's what McDavid's legacy could look like after the end of the 2023-24 regular season:

If he wins the Art Ross trophy...

• This would be McDavid's 6th win
• Only Wayne Gretzky would have more Art Ross trophies (10x)
• McDavid would be tied for second place all-time with Gordie Howe & Mario Lemieux
• Assessment: roughly a 50% chance

If he finishes 2nd in scoring...

• This would be McDavid's 8th top-two finish (all consecutive)
• Only Wayne Gretzky (13x) would have more top-two finishes in the scoring race
• McDavid would be tied for second place all-time with Phil Esposito
• Assessment: roughly a 75% chance

If he finishes 3rd in scoring...

• This would McDavid's 8th top-three finish (all consecutive)
• Only Wayne Gretzky (15x) and Gordie Howe (12x) would have more top-three finishes in the scoring race
• McDavid would be tied for second place with Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, Phil Esposito, and Stan Mikita
• Assessment: virtually certain

If he leads the league in assists...

• This would McDavid's 4th time leading the league
• Only Wayne Gretzky (16x) would have led the league in assists more often
• McDavid would be in sole possession of 2nd place (he's currently tied with several players for 2nd place including Lemieux, Jagr, Oates, etc)
• Assessment: virtually certain

If he leads the league in points per game...

• This would McDavid's 6th time leading the league
• Only Wayne Gretzky (11x), Gordie Howe (7x) and Mario Lemieux (7x) would have led the league in PPG more often
• McDavid would be in sole possession of 2nd place (he's currently tied with Sidney Crosby and Phil Esposito for 4th place)
• Assessment: better than 50/50

If he leads the league in ES scoring...

• This would be his 5th time leading the league in ES scoring
• Only Wayne Gretzky (11x) would have led the league in ES scoring more often (NOTE - I only have data going back to 1950)
• McDavid would be in sole possession of 2nd place (he's currently tied with Gordie Howe and Phil Esposito for 2nd place)
• Assessment: roughly a 50% chance

If he leads the league in PP scoring...

• This would be his 4th time leading the league in PP scoring
• Only Phil Esposito (7x), Wayne Gretzky (5x), and Gordie Howe (5x) would have led the league in PP scoring more often (NOTE - I only have data going back to 1950)
• McDavid would be tied for 4th place (with Mario Lemieux)
• Assessment: roughly a 25% chance

If he wins the Hart trophy...

• This would be his 4th time winning the Hart trophy
• Only Wayne Gretzky (9x) and Gordie Howe (6x) would have more wins
• McDavid would be tied for 3rd place (with Eddie Shore)
• Assessment: under 50% as of today, but if he comes back to take the Art Ross trophy, this will rise

If he's a finalist (top three) for the Hart trophy...

• This would be his 6th time as a Hart trophy finalist
• Only Gordie Howe (12x), Wayne Gretzky (11x), Bobby Hull (8x), Bobby Orr (7x), Mario Lemieux (7x), Sidney Crosby (7x), Jean Beliveau (7x) and Eddie Shore (7x) would have more years as a Hart finalist
• McDavid would be tied for 9th place (with Maurice Richard and Jaromir Jagr)
• Assessment: virtually certain

If he wins the Lindsay (Pearson) trophy...

• This would be his 5th time winning the Lindsay (Pearson) trophy
• This would tie McDavid for 1st place all-time (with Wayne Gretzky) - "all time" going back to 1971
• Assessment: probably around 50/50
• NOTE: the historical voting data for the Lindsay trophy is incomplete. But if McDavid is a finalist this year, which appears to be virtually certain, he'll have more years as a finalist than Crosby, Ovechkin, and Jagr

If he's named first-team all-star...

• This would be his 6th time earning a spot on the first year-end all-star team
• Among centres, only Wayne Gretzky (8x) would have more
• McDavid would be tied for 2nd place (with Jean Beliveau and Phil Esposito)
• Assessment: coin flip between McDavid and MacKinnon for the first team