Combined Goalie Discussion thread

[Mess]

I know they are going 1A and 1B but unless they flip a coin, even if they don't admit, it someone is seen as the #1.
Would that be the Goalie that starts Opening Night on the road or Opening Night at home the following day?

I wonder if the rotation will revolve around keeping goalies away from their former teams.

Murray plays against Washington and Samsonov against Ottawa.

Eventually I think they will go with the hot hand, however I think they believe the more experienced goalie Murray is the #1A and seen as their #1. IMO

 

[zeke]

Pretty sure they'll do the obvious and play Murray Gm1 and then let Sammy face his old team in Gm2.

 

[Zybalto]

I'm still expecting our goaltending to be in the same range as it was last year (~22nd).

Bad, but not awful.

Anything more will be a pleasant surprise.

So you are expecting injuries then with Murray? (Seeing how injuries played such a key role in our goaltending)

Not a bad prediction looking at the past.

 

[ACC1224]

I wonder if the rotation will revolve around keeping goalies away from their former teams.

Murray plays against Washington and Samsonov against Ottawa.

View attachment 591432

Eventually I think they will go with the hot hand, however I think they believe the more experienced goalie Murray is the #1A and seen as their #1. IMO

Samsonov gets Montreal Opening night then?

 

[zeke]

So you are expecting injuries then with Murray? (Seeing how injuries played such a key role in our goaltending)

Not a bad prediction looking at the past.

I'm sure he'll miss some time but no I'm not predicting any massive injury time missed for him.

 

[kb]

I'm sure he'll miss some time but no I'm not predicting any massive injury time missed for him.

Upon first viewings both look solid. Sadly the same couldn't be said last season.

 

[ToneDog]

Samsonov gets Montreal Opening night then?

Unless he is hurt, I'm betting Murray is the starter.

 

[Zybalto]

I'm sure he'll miss some time but no I'm not predicting any massive injury time missed for him.

Just curious about your views here.

Mrazek blew out his groin the first game and reinjured it and was never able to show what he could be really, Campbell was great until he took that rib injury (this is where things are murky...exactly when) and tried to play through it before going on the DL forcing Kallgren to play and he isn't even an NHL goalie.

Im pretty confident in Samsonov outplaying anything we had behind a starter and with Campbell holding a .935 until January 14th, do you think it was injury related or the fact he's never started a full season or both as to why he fell off a cliff?

Kallgren and Mrazek both had .888 save%s for the team last season right?
What is your prediction for Samsonov?

Campbell had a .914 save%.
What is your prediction for Murray?

If Murray doesnt take a hit like last season, do you expect him to be even worse than his .906 last season?

Toronto's team save% was .899 last year and that was with good D numbers.

The only way they get close to that number is if one of the 2 goalies blows up real bad IMO.

 

[zeke]

Just curious about your views here.

Mrazek blew out his groin the first game and reinjured it and was never able to show what he could be really, Campbell was great until he took that rib injury (this is where things are murky...exactly when) and tried to play through it before going on the DL forcing Kallgren to play and he isn't even an NHL goalie.

Im pretty confident in Samsonov outplaying anything we had behind a starter and with Campbell holding a .935 until January 14th, do you think it was injury related or the fact he's never started a full season or both as to why he fell off a cliff?

Kallgren and Mrazek both had .888 save%s for the team last season right?
What is your prediction for Samsonov?

Campbell had a .914 save%.
What is your prediction for Murray?

If Murray doesnt take a hit like last season, do you expect him to be even worse than his .906 last season?

Toronto's team save% was .899 last year and that was with good D numbers.

The only way they get close to that number is if one of the 2 goalies blows up real bad IMO.

Toronto's Team Save% Last year: 89.97sv%
Murray/Samsonov Save% Last yr: 89.97sv%

and then there's as many reasons to think positive upside chances (i.e. younger bigger goalies, clutch playoff history, last year gsax) as negative downside chances (injury history, longer term gsax).

hopefully one of these guys flourishes with us, and both plausibly could, but i'm not counting on it.

 

[mydnyte]

Just curious about your views here.

Mrazek blew out his groin the first game and reinjured it and was never able to show what he could be really, Campbell was great until he took that rib injury (this is where things are murky...exactly when) and tried to play through it before going on the DL forcing Kallgren to play and he isn't even an NHL goalie.

Im pretty confident in Samsonov outplaying anything we had behind a starter and with Campbell holding a .935 until January 14th, do you think it was injury related or the fact he's never started a full season or both as to why he fell off a cliff?

Kallgren and Mrazek both had .888 save%s for the team last season right?
What is your prediction for Samsonov?

Campbell had a .914 save%.
What is your prediction for Murray?

If Murray doesnt take a hit like last season, do you expect him to be even worse than his .906 last season?

Toronto's team save% was .899 last year and that was with good D numbers.

The only way they get close to that number is if one of the 2 goalies blows up real bad IMO.

Campbell had great numbers the 1st half, but, he didnt make it look pretty, and has issues tracking the puck.
other than tracking the puck, his 2 weaknesses are distance shots, and loose pucks in the crease.
many goalie struggle with loose pucks in the crease, but, the issues he seems to have in tracking the puck is why he was often swimming, and flip flopping in the crease, because he had no idea where the puck actually was.

I do not puck much stock in his 2nd half letdown being due to his injury, as almost every goalie plays at less than 100%, and if he was hurt to the point where he wasnt able to give a decent performance, than he should have told the trainers that, and not played.

I was not at all interested in getting Murray as his numbers were in decline since Pitt, but he looks positionally solid so far, but, its pre-season, so, whop-de-doo ...lets wait and see if he can actually turn his game around, or we're looking at dead cap space for 2 seasons.

Samsonov was one of the goalies i wanted us to target, and i think on our team he can improve.
Definitely wasnt impressed with his puck handling skills (or lack thereof) and I dont know if he lost focus the last 15 seconds in the last game for the 3rd goal, but, our defender did make a perfect pass from behind our net to the opponent right next to the net, for an unhindered in tight chance. Still, though, would have liked to have seen him more focused on that play, as the game isnt over till the horn goes.

 

[Mess]

Samsonov gets Montreal Opening night then?

I seem to believe its going to be Murray in game #1, however my reasoning to believe otherwise is based on what has happened in exhibition season.

Ottawa and Toronto have played 3 times in exhibition already and Murray has not faced his former team once yet.. Leafs have been sheltering Murray against his former team.

So when you see Washington game #2 and Ottawa #3 you think that not playing a goalie against his former team makes sense. OV and his Wash teammates after shooting against and playing in front of Samsonov would know his every weakness and ditto for Sens players shooting on Murray.

However Leafs play back to back games Friday and Saturday against Detroit and maybe whoever plays better gets game #1 also.

 

[Zybalto]

Toronto's Team Save% Last year: 89.97sv%
Murray/Samsonov Save% Last yr: 89.97sv%

and then there's as many reasons to think positive upside chances (i.e. younger bigger goalies, clutch playoff history, last year gsax) as negative downside chances (injury history, longer term gsax).

hopefully one of these guys flourishes with us, and both plausibly could, but i'm not counting on it.

Goalie xGA/60 last season:

Kallgren: 2.18
Campbell: 2.25
Mrazek: 2.31
Samsonov: 2.41
Murray: 2.81 (Forsberg was only at 2.57. One of the most under-siege keepers in the league last season as he played a ton when the Sens were riddled with covid.)

I think it might make a difference to play on Toronto for the two new guys.

Cmon, quick predictions on save% for the new guys.

I'm going with .913 Murray and ,908 Samsonov and the Leafs will be knocking on the door for the top 10 for team save%. (I also don't believe the league will be as high scoring as last season.

 

[Mess]

Jack Campbell set the high water marks during a record setting team mark last year, the Leafs new goalies will attempt to meet or beat.

Wins : 31 = (11th best) in 47 games started
GA/G : 2.64 = (14th best)
SV% : .914 = (15th best)
SO: 5 = (4th best)

If either of Leafs new goalies can give the Leafs similar level goaltending Leafs will be fine, particularly if their offense continues to reside in the top 5 and able to outscore their breakdowns and goaltending at times. While admittingly Campbell's numbers placed him in the middle/average (ie 14/15th of 32 teams #1 goalies) on the season there is also lots of room for the new guys to exceed those #'s.

 

[zeke]

Goalie xGA/60 last season:

Kallgren: 2.18
Campbell: 2.25
Mrazek: 2.31
Samsonov: 2.41
Murray: 2.81 (Forsberg was only at 2.57. One of the most under-siege keepers in the league last season as he played a ton when the Sens were riddled with covid.)

I think it might make a difference to play on Toronto for the two new guys.

Cmon, quick predictions on save% for the new guys.

I'm going with .913 Murray and ,908 Samsonov and the Leafs will be knocking on the door for the top 10 for team save%. (I also don't believe the league will be as high scoring as last season.

hey I think GSAx is useful and all but it absolutely screwed us with Mrazek. I'm not counting on it again anytime soon.

 

[ACC1224]

Unless he is hurt, I'm betting Murray is the starter.

I would assume the same.

 

[Mess]

I would assume the same.

Salaries even with retention suggest Murray $$4,687,500 Leafs intended #1 this year over Samsonov $1.8 mil.

Generally the goalie that gets paid the most is projected to be the bigger impact player and play more games.

Although based on last year Mrazek was getting paid $3.8 mil AAV compared to Campbell $1.65 mil.

 

[saltming]

Salaries even with retention suggest Murray $$4,687,500 Leafs intended #1 this year over Samsonov $1.8 mil.

Generally the goalie that gets paid the most is projected to be the bigger impact player and play more games.

Although based on last year Mrazek was getting paid $3.8 mil AAV compared to Campbell $1.65 mil.

That would be logical if the Leafs signed Murray to that contract.
I agree miah is the intended 1A but that's due to experience and preseason performance.
Would also assume there will be a good split to the games unless one guy is absolutely on fire

 

[kb]

Murray's 'Leaf' cap hit is 22nd in the NHL for goalies.

He can outperform that significantly just by being league average.

 

[X66]

My biggest worry so far with goaltenders outside of health is that the D starts of the season sloppy and both goalies get lit up and can't bounce back.

October games are ugly to begin with on the defensive side, especially for older guys we have on the back end.

Murray's first two games are going to be against the Habs in Montreal and the Sens on the Saturday, two bad teams, but two teams that will definitely push us because of rivalries etc and likely two of the better games they will play that season.

Huge games for his mojo IMO.

 

[Mess]

That would be logical if the Leafs signed Murray to that contract.
I agree miah is the intended 1A but that's due to experience and preseason performance.
Would also assume there will be a good split to the games unless one guy is absolutely on fire

Murray has only dressed in 2 exhibition games against last year's last overall finishing team Montreal.

Generally Q of C (quality of competition) is a good gauge and indicator as your better goalie generally draws the stronger competition.

Since Murray has already faced Montreal twice he likely gets the season start, since its the Habs on the schedule again. But then if Samsonov gets game #2 Washington a 100 point playoff team and then Murray gets game #3 Ottawa another non playoff team, then it appears Leafs are using Murray against non playoff teams and Sammy against the toughest QofC.

Murray gets the non playoff competition and Sammy gets the playoff one.

Logically however the goalie that gets Washington is the one the Leafs team trust most essentially because its the toughest matchup on the schedule of the first 3.

 

[notbias]

Toronto's Team Save% Last year: 89.97sv%
Murray/Samsonov Save% Last yr: 89.97sv%

and then there's as many reasons to think positive upside chances (i.e. younger bigger goalies, clutch playoff history, last year gsax) as negative downside chances (injury history, longer term gsax).

hopefully one of these guys flourishes with us, and both plausibly could, but i'm not counting on it.

I thought you liked GSAx, that would be a good indicator that it will likely improve, and our D is better this year.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Toronto's Team Save% Last year: 89.97sv%
Murray/Samsonov Save% Last yr: 89.97sv%

and then there's as many reasons to think positive upside chances (i.e. younger bigger goalies, clutch playoff history, last year gsax) as negative downside chances (injury history, longer term gsax).

hopefully one of these guys flourishes with us, and both plausibly could, but i'm not counting on it.

Looking at save% across an entire season may not paint the full picture, though. It's interesting to look at it on a game-by-game basis, and break it out like this:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Save %[/TD]
[TD]Quality of start[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].920 or better[/TD]
[TD]Great[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].910-.919[/TD]
[TD]Good[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].900-.909[/TD]
[TD]Average[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].890-899[/TD]
[TD]Below Average[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].889 or worse[/TD]
[TD]Terrible[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

And if you break out the Leafs season last year:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Quality of start[/TD]
[TD]Total games[/TD]
[TD]Wins[/TD]
[TD]Losses[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Great (.920 or better)[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Good (.910-919)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Average (.900-.909)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Below Average (.890-.899)[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Terrible (.889 or worse)[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So the Leafs actually got a ~ half-season's worth of top-end goaltending, and in those games, their record was remarkable. The problem was, they also got a ~ half-season's worth of terrible goaltending, and in those games, while the offense kept them afloat, their record was sub-.500.

So the question is, can Murray/Samsonov provided 30+ great games over the course of the season?

Breaking down Murray's season last year:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Quality of start[/TD]
[TD]Total games (21/22)[/TD]
[TD]Total games (20/21)[/TD]
[TD]Total games (Last 2 season)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Great (.920 or better)[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Good (.910-.919)[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Average (.900-.909)[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Below avg. (.890-.899)[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Terrible (.889 or worse)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So the answer is: probably yes, if he stays healthy.

Looking at this, the Leafs are unlikely to get a lot of "average" or even "good" goaltending next season. It'll be just like last year - jekyll and hyde. Half great. Half terrible.

Edit: Samsonov's breakout:

Quality of start	Total games (21/22)	Total games (20/21)	Total games (Last 2 season)
Great (.920 or better)	11	5	16
Good (.910-.919)	1	1	2
Average (.900-.909)	9	3	12
Below avg. (.890-.899)	6	1	7
Terrible (.889 or worse)	17	10	27

Takeaway from that is that Murray probably has a better chance of being great.

 

[kb]

Looking at save% across an entire season may not paint the full picture, though. It's interesting to look at it on a game-by-game basis, and break it out like this:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Save %[/TD]
[TD]Quality of start[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].920 or better[/TD]
[TD]Great[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].910-.919[/TD]
[TD]Good[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].900-.909[/TD]
[TD]Average[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].890-899[/TD]
[TD]Below Average[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD].889 or worse[/TD]
[TD]Terrible[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

And if you break out the Leafs season last year:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Quality of start[/TD]
[TD]Total games[/TD]
[TD]Wins[/TD]
[TD]Losses[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Great (.920 or better)[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Good (.910-919)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Average (.900-.909)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Below Average (.890-.899)[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Terrible (.889 or worse)[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So the Leafs actually got a ~ half-season's worth of top-end goaltending, and in those games, their record was remarkable. The problem was, they also got a ~ half-season's worth of terrible goaltending, and in those games, while the offense kept them afloat, their record was sub-.500.

So the question is, can Murray/Samsonov provided 30+ great games over the course of the season?

Breaking down Murray's season last year:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Quality of start[/TD]
[TD]Total games (21/22)[/TD]
[TD]Total games (20/21)[/TD]
[TD]Total games (Last 2 season)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Great (.920 or better)[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Good (.910-.919)[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Average (.900-.909)[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Below avg. (.890-.899)[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Terrible (.889 or worse)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So the answer is: probably yes, if he stays healthy.

Looking at this, the Leafs are unlikely to get a lot of "average" or even "good" goaltending next season. It'll be just like last year - jekyll and hyde. Half great. Half terrible.

This is relevant only if one thinks that Ottawa and Toronto have similar caliber D-cores.

 

[DaveMatthew]

This is relevant only if one thinks that Ottawa and Toronto have similar caliber D-cores.

Toronto is a much better defensive team than Murray played in front of the last two seasons, of course. But anyone who watched him can say that that was not the only reason for his jekyll and hyde play. Sure, in Ottawa, a bad game meant 42 shots and 6 goals against. In Toronto, it'll be 25 shots and 4 goals against.

He'll also have games where he steals the show, though.

 

[saltming]

Murray has only dressed in 2 exhibition games against last year's last overall finishing team Montreal.

Generally Q of C (quality of competition) is a good gauge and indicator as your better goalie generally draws the stronger competition.

Since Murray has already faced Montreal twice he likely gets the season start, since its the Habs on the schedule again. But then if Samsonov gets game #2 Washington a 100 point playoff team and then Murray gets game #3 Ottawa another non playoff team, then it appears Leafs are using Murray against non playoff teams and Sammy against the toughest QofC.

Murray gets the non playoff competition and Sammy gets the playoff one.

Logically however the goalie that gets Washington is the one the Leafs team trust most essentially because its the toughest matchup on the schedule of the first 3.

This preseason we play/ed mtl OTT and det only. QC is what it is and pretty evenly crap so you say Murray played against the bottom feeder mtl but samsonov also played against bottom feeders so it's all even.

One could argue that the first game of the season goes to the preferred goalie as you would think your starter get to start the season. Symbolic but also customary. The rest is luck of the draw. Starting with a b2b is salty and thus both will play right away. As for playing was, maybe they give samsonov the chance to play his old team? Also symbolic and makes for good storylines.
Imo we won't know who they prefer until the season is comfortably on its way. Then whoever gets the majority starts would seem to be the 1A