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Combined Goalie Discussion Thread - PART TWO!

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Dekes For Days said:
Murray this year: +1.0 GSAx
Mrazek last year: -11.6 GSAx

Imagine actually trying to claim that Mrazek was better. Good lord. :laugh:
Click to expand...

Imagine someone defending Murray with pretend (expected) stats based on arbitrarily where a shot came from on the ice regardless if its a goal or not, and disputing actual shots on goal and actual save made.

Mrazek actual sv% (from Jan-Apr) in 2022 was better than Murray sv% during that same time. The actual stats don't lie .. Would even hold up in a court of law as actual evidence.

You do understand your +1.0 goals saved above expected stat focuses on 1 single save more than expected. If Murray made 1 less save and let in 1 more goal on the entire season his GSAx would be Zero.

Murray has faced 761 shots on the full season made 687 saves and your +1 GSAx means he made +1 extra save above expected or else his saves would have been 686 instead of 687 and his actual sv% down from 902.7 to 901.4. That is the actual impact of your +1 GSAx on his actual yearly sv% of + .0013 !!!

1680624148053.png


So you think that +1 expected save seems to be more important, than the actual saves Murray did record?

Who decides and divides up the ice, and who arbitrary decides if the goalie should make the save regardless of the player taking the shot simply based on where the shot came from?

Your honour case dismissed as only real actual verifiable evidence is allowed. :wg:

PS.. Both Mrazek and Murray are and were lousy.. Its not really about who was better only as most Leaf fans have recognized both as poor GM goalie decisions based on injuries and performance. Hopefully IF Murray is called upon in the playoffs he does make a +1 key save, and it doesn't cost the Leafs another 1st round draft pick to get rid of Murray this summer just like it did to unload Mrazek.
 
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Mess said:
You do understand your +1.0 goals saved above expected stat focuses on 1 single save more than expected. If Murray made 1 less save and let in 1 more goal on the entire season his GSAx would be Zero.
Click to expand...
And as I previously mentioned Murray had one great game against Dallas where his GSAx was over 5. Meaning he is a minus 4 in all other games this season.
 
Larcos_Unal said:
I remember getting chirped on this board when I said Murray was a horrible acquisition. I was hoping to be proven wrong but alas, the guy is a band-aid and cannot be trusted to contribute.
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Yup. As if a GM out there was stupid enough to take on his contract and actually expect him to be a solution in net
 
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Mess said:
Imagine someone defending Murray with pretend (expected) stats based on arbitrarily where a shot came from on the ice regardless if its a goal or not, and disputing actual shots on goal and actual save made.
Click to expand...
They're not pretend stats. They're the best metrics available for evaluating a goaltender, and are much better than the SV% in a cherry picked sample you were using, which doesn't even factor in shot quality at all. Murray has also been better by SV% anyway.
And for the record, these so-called "pretend stats" are ones you had no opposition to using throughout the entire summer whenever it suited your narrative.
Mess said:
So you think that +1 expected save seems to be more important, than the actual saves Murray did record?
Click to expand...
It's not "+1 expected save". That just shows that you don't even understand the stat. Murray essentially saved over 12 goals more than Mrazek.
Mess said:
who arbitrary decides if the goalie should make the save
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it's not arbitrary. No individual decides. It's based on the factual data from thousands and thousands of historical results that have been extensively analyzed.
Mess said:
Hopefully IF Murray is called upon in the playoffs he does make a key save, and it doesn't cost the Leafs another 1st round draft pick to get rid of Murray this summer just like it did to unload Mrazek.
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It didn't cost a 1st round pick to unload Mrazek. It cost 13 draft slots.
 
Mrazek is overpaid trash. Murray is also overpaid trash. Are we seriously arguing over which one is less bad?
 
31st best SV% in the NHL for goalies with 20+ starts.

Not great, but not trash either. Not sure why people have to keep trashing our own players. All for one, and one for all. GLG!!
 
Notable G options from Summer 2022, Ranked by 2022-23 Save %, with acquisition cost relative to Murray

Georgiev - .919 - 3rd +3rd +3rd +5th +7th
Samsonov - .915
Kuemper - .910 - 3rd + 7th, just shy of 500k this year and next, 5.25m for three years after, soon to be 33
Vanecek -.908 - 2nd + 3rd + 7th
Murray- .903
Husso - .899- 3rd +3rd +7th
Campbell .886 300k this year and next, 5m x 3 after that.
 
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At the end of the day, since Jan1 st he has 12 starts. He is 5-5. He got pulled in one after giving up 4 G on 8 shots. and the last one where he got hurt. had given up 2G on 7 shots.

In those 12 games he gave up 4 or more goals 8 times out of the 12. It is simply not good enough, maybe he's better than Mrazek but he wasn't good enough either.

4+Goals in 2 out of every 3 games is not good enough on a contender. either its the goalie or the team in front of him.... in this case its fairly obvious its the goalie.

This injury may have been a freak accident but he has not been able to stay healthy for years, hasn't been an effective NHLer for years either.

Leafs got what many of us expected when they made this move, an overpaid injury prone guy who is has not been elite or anything resembling it for the last 5 years.
 
The problem with trying to pawn off Murray is that he's good for like 25 games a year. He's the definition of unreliable. Whether it be his health or his play. Then add in his $8 million salary. Not great.

Maybe he LTIRetires
 
Jozay said:
The problem with trying to pawn off Murray is that he's good for like 25 games a year. He's the definition of unreliable. Whether it be his health or his play. Then add in his $8 million salary. Not great.

Maybe he LTIRetires
Click to expand...
Carrying 3 goalies next season might not be the end of the world. Not ideal of course, but perhaps doable. There's always the chance he stays healthy, plays well and we actually get something decent back for him.
 
Gary Nylund said:
Carrying 3 goalies next season might not be the end of the world. Not ideal of course, but perhaps doable. There's always the chance he stays healthy, plays well and we actually get something decent back for him.
Click to expand...
Best version of the Leafs next year definitely does not include Matt Murray and his 4.5 million cap hit
 
Jozay said:
The problem with trying to pawn off Murray is that he's good for like 25 games a year. He's the definition of unreliable. Whether it be his health or his play. Then add in his $8 million salary. Not great.

Maybe he LTIRetires
Click to expand...
Ottawa retained so his salary is 4.5.gets easier to handle
 
Mess said:
Imagine someone defending Murray with pretend (expected) stats based on arbitrarily where a shot came from on the ice regardless if its a goal or not, and disputing actual shots on goal and actual save made.

Mrazek actual sv% (from Jan-Apr) in 2022 was better than Murray sv% during that same time. The actual stats don't lie .. Would even hold up in a court of law as actual evidence.

You do understand your +1.0 goals saved above expected stat focuses on 1 single save more than expected. If Murray made 1 less save and let in 1 more goal on the entire season his GSAx would be Zero.

Murray has faced 761 shots on the full season made 687 saves and your +1 GSAx means he made +1 extra save above expected or else his saves would have been 686 instead of 687 and his actual sv% down from 902.7 to 901.4. That is the actual impact of your +1 GSAx on his actual yearly sv% of + .0013 !!!

View attachment 681427

So you think that +1 expected save seems to be more important, than the actual saves Murray did record?

Who decides and divides up the ice, and who arbitrary decides if the goalie should make the save regardless of the player taking the shot simply based on where the shot came from?

Your honour case dismissed as only real actual verifiable evidence is allowed. :wg:

PS.. Both Mrazek and Murray are and were lousy.. Its not really about who was better only as most Leaf fans have recognized both as poor GM goalie decisions based on injuries and performance. Hopefully IF Murray is called upon in the playoffs he does make a +1 key save, and it doesn't cost the Leafs another 1st round draft pick to get rid of Murray this summer just like it did to unload Mrazek.
Click to expand...
This is rich coming from someone who if he had his way we would have Jack Freakin Campbell in net LOL. At 5 mill a year no less LOL.
 
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