Combined Goalie Discussion Thread - PART TWO!

[Buds17]

Playoffs is too far away, a lot can happen between now till then. But if Playoffs starts today, there is no way you are going with Murray over Sammy.

Which implies that both goalies aren't on the same level. Fair enough. FTR, I agree with that statement at the present time (Samsonov currently being better than Murray).

 

[1specter]

Samsonov successfully outdueled Sorokin and Shesterkin on back to back starts, must feel good to beat his Russian compatriots.

 

[HolyCrap]

I was really questioning the goalie moves but kept my fingers crossed it would workout. I’m planning on cooking my crow in a crockpot nice and slow and maybe doing like pulled pork on tacos with lotsa salsa.

 

[Petrus]

Samsonov successfully outdueled Sorokin and Shesterkin on back to back starts, must feel good to beat his Russian compatriots.

Vasilevsky is next!

 

[TMLAM34]

Aside from the 4 game slide Samsonov had earlier in the season (which every goalie goes through), he has looked really good.

We may have found our starter for now and for years to come given he’s only 25 (almost 26).

Glad he’s an RFA after this year even though we technically picked him up as a UFA last year.

Also, it seems like he really enjoys the Toronto lifestyle and media even.

 

[leafsfan5]

Among goalies who have played 1000 minutes (29 goalies), Samsonov ranks 1st in high danger save% with a .891. Second is Jeremy Swayman with a .882

This guy just keeps on making the big saves and is doing it better than anyone else in the league. It seems like the goalie coach change has done him a world of good, he's very calm in his net but can still use his athleticism when required (hence, the 1st in high danger save%)

We might finally have our future 1G here, hopefully he can keep this up

 

[1specter]

Among goalies who have played 1000 minutes (29 goalies), Samsonov ranks 1st in high danger save% with a .891. Second is Jeremy Swayman with a .882

This guy just keeps on making the big saves and is doing it better than anyone else in the league. It seems like the goalie coach change has done him a world of good, he's very calm in his net but can still use his athleticism when required (hence, the 1st in high danger save%)

We might finally have our future 1G here, hopefully he can keep this up

It's also worth noting that his overall even strength sv% is 2nd only to Ullmark who has been on another planet this season.

What hurts Sammy's overall sv% is his PK sv%, where he ranks 27/62 of goalies who have played in at least 50 PK minutes.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Among goalies who have played 1000 minutes (29 goalies), Samsonov ranks 1st in high danger save% with a .891. Second is Jeremy Swayman with a .882

This guy just keeps on making the big saves and is doing it better than anyone else in the league. It seems like the goalie coach change has done him a world of good, he's very calm in his net but can still use his athleticism when required (hence, the 1st in high danger save%)

We might finally have our future 1G here, hopefully he can keep this up

I think that management finally figured out that having goalies who are not great in high danger spots are our kryptonite. Freddie seemed to let the softie in and Happy Jack lets them in from everywhere when its a great chance on net. We finally have the goalies who excel in an area we used to suck at...giving up the big chance. Let's hope we can tighten it down for the playoffs and Sammy will sign a long term deal at reasonable money.

Of all scenarios, this one is best where Sammy outplays Murray because he is still so young and has long term upside.

 

[LeafSteel]

Honest question hinging on 3 big IF’s:

Do we look at trading Matt Murray this off-season IF:

IF 1: Samsonov continues to play well.
IF 2: Murray keeps up his current level of play.
IF 3: Woll continues his level of play and shows what he can do in the NHL on a call up this season.

How many IF’s need to be met before it’s considered by the Leafs? Getting back that $4.7 million cap hit from his contract has to be enticing.

Thoughts?

 

[Jacquestrapless]

Honest question hinging on 3 big IF’s:

Do we look at trading Matt Murray this off-season IF:

IF 1: Samsonov continues to play well.
IF 2: Murray keeps up his current level of play.
IF 3: Woll continues his level of play and shows what he can do in the NHL on a call up this season.

How many IF’s need to be met before it’s considered by the Leafs? Getting back that $4.7 million cap hit from his contract has to be enticing.

Thoughts?

I'd move Murray tbh. I think Woll could provide .905 goaltending next year and that $4.7 should go toward Bunting's new contract. Ultimately, you build a goalie pipeline, this is the time to use it. The Leafs are in a cap crunch and if they could get back-up level goaltending(with good upside) for a fraction of the price, that's valuable in itself.

Not to mention prospects like Petruzelli and possibly Hildeby might need spots next year on the Marlies. And Woll needs waivers next year, apparently.

Some say it might be a gamble next year as Samsonov has never had a starter's load, Woll is a question mark, etc, but so was this year.

I'd roll the die again.

 

[LeafChief]

Samsonov is looking great lately. Time for Murray to get hot again.

I really hope everything is okay with Mess. He was posting in here a lot and seems to have disappeared. Let us know if you need anything, brother.

 

[Buds17]

Honest question hinging on 3 big IF’s:

Do we look at trading Matt Murray this off-season IF:

IF 1: Samsonov continues to play well.
IF 2: Murray keeps up his current level of play.
IF 3: Woll continues his level of play and shows what he can do in the NHL on a call up this season.

How many IF’s need to be met before it’s considered by the Leafs? Getting back that $4.7 million cap hit from his contract has to be enticing.

Thoughts?

There has to be enough confidence in both Samsonov as a starter and Woll as a backup (with the latter currently feeling like the bigger gamble of the two, IMO). The next bet is in Murray being open (limited NTC) to joining a team that can absorb his cap hit for a season without sending any salary back. While this might ultimately be the path taken by the team, it's definitely still too early to make that determination yet (this is likely to require all of the 'ifs' being met).

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Honest question hinging on 3 big IF’s:

Do we look at trading Matt Murray this off-season IF:

IF 1: Samsonov continues to play well.
IF 2: Murray keeps up his current level of play.
IF 3: Woll continues his level of play and shows what he can do in the NHL on a call up this season.

How many IF’s need to be met before it’s considered by the Leafs? Getting back that $4.7 million cap hit from his contract has to be enticing.

Thoughts?

If Samsonov continues to look so solid in goal, quiet with his movements unless necessary, and not swimming, I think it's a great idea to trade Murray given the cap space we'd save, the age difference, and the fact Woll looks like he's finally taken a leap. Murray still has some major weaknesses in his game (his glove hand) that he still hasn't rectified. He's going to turn 30 May of 2024.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Samsonov might be our guy. I'm happy it worked out for him. We still need Murray, and Murray is surprisingly better than many of us thought.

Good on Dubas for risking both. I have to give him credit.

 

[LeafChief]

IF Samsonov continues to play at this rate, I would definitely look into moving Murray in the summer (for positive assets).

Especially if you can get Samsonov signed for less than Murray's AAV.

Lots of season to go though. At this point last year, Campbell was heading to the All-Star game.

 

[TOGuy14]

Honest question hinging on 3 big IF’s:

Do we look at trading Matt Murray this off-season IF:

IF 1: Samsonov continues to play well.
IF 2: Murray keeps up his current level of play.
IF 3: Woll continues his level of play and shows what he can do in the NHL on a call up this season.

How many IF’s need to be met before it’s considered by the Leafs? Getting back that $4.7 million cap hit from his contract has to be enticing.

Thoughts?

I would 100% look to trade Murray but I would also prefer to have a solid veteran backup to Samsonov and not roll the dice on Woll.

You have guys like Quick, Varlamov, Freddy, Talbot and Jones who will be available. I would look to one of them

 

[Menzinger]

Honest question hinging on 3 big IF’s:

Do we look at trading Matt Murray this off-season IF:

IF 1: Samsonov continues to play well.
IF 2: Murray keeps up his current level of play.
IF 3: Woll continues his level of play and shows what he can do in the NHL on a call up this season.

How many IF’s need to be met before it’s considered by the Leafs? Getting back that $4.7 million cap hit from his contract has to be enticing.

Thoughts?

It all comes down to if one of them proves to be a playoff hero. If it's Murray, they likely role back with the same tandem. If it's Samsonov they potentially make a trade.

 

[Gabriel426]

Overdrive had a guy who runs stats company on goalie yesterday, and he was saying Sammy is top of the league in breakaway or odd man saves 5v5 in the league and also got a much higher save percentage than Murray when the game is tied.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

 

[BlueBaron]

Honest question hinging on 3 big IF’s:

Do we look at trading Matt Murray this off-season IF:

IF 1: Samsonov continues to play well.
IF 2: Murray keeps up his current level of play.
IF 3: Woll continues his level of play and shows what he can do in the NHL on a call up this season.

How many IF’s need to be met before it’s considered by the Leafs? Getting back that $4.7 million cap hit from his contract has to be enticing.

Thoughts?

Yep. If Sam keeps it up we'll need Murray's cap hit for Sam. Hopefully Murray plays well enough to have value.

 

[notbias]

Haven't posted in a few months, just checking in to see if @Mess still posts a lot in this thread...

Yep. If Sam keeps it up we'll need Murray's cap hit for Sam. Hopefully Murray plays well enough to have value.

I think we see more ELCs next year, and Samsonov should not get a big raise, he will be manageable on a new cap hit with Murray around still.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

We need a tender who already knows how to win a Cup .. Murray is it .. Sammy can help out here and there with injuries and time off .. team has never had a tender who has won them anything in Matty's world .. we got 2 chances this year and then next year .. this year it is gonna be a b*tch going thru Tampa, Boston, Carolina and then Avs (likely da top 5 teams in NHL when healthy right now) .. and guess what it is very likely we will have to beat every one of them

 

[BlueBaron]

I think we see more ELCs next year, and Samsonov should not get a big raise, he will be manageable on a new cap hit with Murray around still.

Well surely Knies is on the team, maybe Woll if we can move Murray. I'm not sure anyone else has a shot.

Hard to say with Sammy. He could win the Conn Smyth and command big bucks or he could fizzle. I'm planning for him to do fairly well. If we want a long term deal I'm thinking 3-4 mil assuming no cup.

 

[Gilmour1996]

Do we still owe Ottawa anything as "future considerations" in the Matt Murray trade? What shall we give them if we do? Can we return them Matt Murray as payment?

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'm not the biggest advanced stats guy but Valiquette (old NYR alumni) was on Overdrive the other day and when the game is tied, Samsonov has a 912 save percentage and Murray has an 865 save percentage. That's a big difference and one gives you a chance to win.