Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

[No Fun Shogun]

Fandom has never been logical, that's the entire point.

If you're a fan of a college team, there's a very good chance that there's a multigenerational backing of that team in your family, particularly in the South and Midwest. Losing things that you've grown accustomed to and reacting with anger or sadness is completely understandable just as fans of pro teams have intense emotional connections, too.

If, say, ten NHL teams announced their own new league, you'd better believe that there'd be intense reactions to that and the loss of the NHL brand, too.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

We're talking about patching gaping wounds with bandaids at this point. A new Pac 12 that hobbles on with a host of former midmajors joining their roster and replacing mega programs bringing in tens of millions in revenue annually, or more, isn't remotely the same thing as what it would be replacing.

That's why the Big Ten and SEC are in such good shape, their poaching has been feasting on the highest sources of revenue possible, other established power five schools. Big Twelve might've had the greatest comeback since Lazarus, but their underpinnings are still much weaker than the SEC's or Big Ten's at this point.

If the SEC decides five years from now that they want Arizona, do you think that the Big Twelve won't be poached again eventually, or if the Big Ten wants Virginia once it's financially not prohibitive with the ACC's exit fees?

This ain't over even if the dust settles in a few months.

 

[MMC]

 

[93LEAFS]

Well, the Pac-12 is dead. I truly wonder what becomes of the Rose Bowl until expanded playoffs.

As for the Big 12, I don't think they are stronger than they were when they had Texas and OU, the conference still lacks a true blue blood football program. Losing arguably the biggest revenue generator in the NCAA is a massive loss. Pretty much every major FBS team is now in the SEC and Big 10 minus ND, FSU, Miami, and I guess Clemson now has close to blue blood status. Now, the Big 12 may be the best basketball conference around adding Zona, but that doesn't drive revenue like football.

Big 10/SEC can pretty much poach whoever they want at this point if that school has an out. Only school that this doesn't apply to is ND who seem fine with their independent status.

 

[GKJ]

If you’re the remaining Pac 12 leftovers, I wonder if they’d be willing to go independent. The next Mountain West deal would start in 2026, so that’s only 3 years. The value will be in being willing to post up on ESPN for all those After Dark games. They can all still play each other and still spread out more scheduling mountain west and ex-Pac 12 teams.

 

[Spydey629]

Fandom has never been logical, that's the entire point.

If you're a fan of a college team, there's a very good chance that there's a multigenerational backing of that team in your family, particularly in the South and Midwest. Losing things that you've grown accustomed to and reacting with anger or sadness is completely understandable just as fans of pro teams have intense emotional connections, too.

If, say, ten NHL teams announced their own new league, you'd better believe that there'd be intense reactions to that and the loss of the NHL brand, too.

Thanks for saying that much clearer than emotional rant could allow.

 

[Fatass]

PAC 8 coming back?

 

[joelef]

Fandom has never been logical, that's the entire point.

If you're a fan of a college team, there's a very good chance that there's a multigenerational backing of that team in your family, particularly in the South and Midwest. Losing things that you've grown accustomed to and reacting with anger or sadness is completely understandable just as fans of pro teams have intense emotional connections, too.

If, say, ten NHL teams announced their own new league, you'd better believe that there'd be intense reactions to that and the loss of the NHL brand, too.

Yeah but thinking “amateur college football” it wasn’t a multi billion capitalistic enterprise is just putting your head in the sand and pretending

 

[KevFu]

If you’re the remaining Pac 12 leftovers, I wonder if they’d be willing to go independent. The next Mountain West deal would start in 2026, so that’s only 3 years. The value will be in being willing to post up on ESPN for all those After Dark games. They can all still play each other and still spread out more scheduling mountain west and ex-Pac 12 teams.

Just to show you how illogical and bananas all of this is...

Stanford has an incredible prestige academically as an AAU member, a historical brand of success as the #1 overall athletic department (in the Commission's Cup overall standings), and located in the richest part of the big market Bay Area.

And they're sitting there knowing that at any minute, they could be invited to the Big Ten, the richest conference full of AAU members and athletics prestige they've been "aligned with" via the Rose Bowl for a century..

Or that call doesn't come and they have to associate with directional schools like Fresno State, Boise State, UNLV; Texas-San Antonio, UNC-Charlotte, Alabama-Birmingham and East Carolina.

It's $70m or $7m. There's no in between.

 

[BKarchitect]

Scheer is a AZ reporter who has been pretty bang on all this past week.

Big 12 fans may not love it but it’s a smart add. The Utes have become a genuine power in football. Completely locking down the Mountain time zone and bringing the Holy War and Zona-ASU just seems like the thing to do instead of galaxy braining this round with an off the board choice.

The Big 12 is clearly not playing the same game as the B1G and SEC - but from being dead multiple times the past decade to clearly positioned to be the P3 under very proactive leadership is pretty remarkable.

The new 16-team league (likely) may lack historical marque programs but features just a tremendously solid slate that includes - if we are talking purely results recently - most of the actual best on the field products of each league. With the Jayhawks turning it around and Deion generating at the very least excitement in Boulder - there won’t be many uncompetitive conference games in tap. And the hoops will be inarguably awesome. Yes, we all know football is king - but the long game of having such a beastly hoops conference in addition to strong football will make the prospect of the B1G and SEC simply breaking away from the NCAA and not including the third power conference far less palatable.

The benefit of strong and deep without historical marque names is also what we are going to see next - sure the B1G can offer a Big 12 school at any point…but they aren’t going to. The ACC dominoes are next and the underlying dissatisfaction in that conference already mirrors what was bubbling in the PAC for years.

 

[GKJ]

Just to show you how illogical and bananas all of this is...

Stanford has an incredible prestige academically as an AAU member, a historical brand of success as the #1 overall athletic department (in the Commission's Cup overall standings), and located in the richest part of the big market Bay Area.

And they're sitting there knowing that at any minute, they could be invited to the Big Ten, the richest conference full of AAU members and athletics prestige they've been "aligned with" via the Rose Bowl for a century..

Or that call doesn't come and they have to associate with directional schools like Fresno State, Boise State, UNLV; Texas-San Antonio, UNC-Charlotte, Alabama-Birmingham and East Carolina.

It's $70m or $7m. There's no in between.

Yeah, being independent seems like a better option.

I’ve seen someone say they could drop football altogether.

 

[KevFu]

Yeah, being independent seems like a better option.

I’ve seen someone say they could drop football altogether.

It's Stanford, they compete in damned near everything. They were one of four teams with Field Hockey west of Missouri, and for a while they were subsidizing Pacific and UC Davis for them to NOT drop their programs.

 

[MMC]

 

[GKJ]

It's Stanford, they compete in damned near everything. They were one of four teams with Field Hockey west of Missouri, and for a while they were subsidizing Pacific and UC Davis for them to NOT drop their programs.

Are they going to be able to keep doing stuff like that as a G5 school though? They’re not a big school, just very rich people.

 

[BKarchitect]

There’s gonna be a 30 for 30 someday documenting how the powerful, prideful PAC - the identity of collegiate athletics in the western U.S. - utterly collapsed.

It’s gonna be a doozy. Full of poor management, ivory towers, back stabbing, double speak, missed opportunities, naivety, terrible negotiating. It’s gone be everything. It’s the more contemporary version of the fall of the Big East - but the fall is much farther, harsher and more brutal.

 

[DaveG]

Well, the Pac-12 is dead. I truly wonder what becomes of the Rose Bowl until expanded playoffs.

As for the Big 12, I don't think they are stronger than they were when they had Texas and OU, the conference still lacks a true blue blood football program. Losing arguably the biggest revenue generator in the NCAA is a massive loss. Pretty much every major FBS team is now in the SEC and Big 10 minus ND, FSU, Miami, and I guess Clemson now has close to blue blood status. Now, the Big 12 may be the best basketball conference around adding Zona, but that doesn't drive revenue like football.

Big 10/SEC can pretty much poach whoever they want at this point if that school has an out. Only school that this doesn't apply to is ND who seem fine with their independent status.

I honestly wonder if the bolded is why the B1G passed on adding Stanford. If they get word from Notre Dame that if Stanford joins they'll be open to a move, I think Stanford is in the B1G right now, even if it means that the B1G would have had to add Cal as well to seal the deal. ND says "nah, we good", so B1G says Oregon and Washington it is then.

 

[DaveG]

Scheer is a AZ reporter who has been pretty bang on all this past week.

Big 12 fans may not love it but it’s a smart add. The Utes have become a genuine power in football. Completely locking down the Mountain time zone and bringing the Holy War and Zona-ASU just seems like the thing to do instead of galaxy braining this round with an off the board choice.

The Big 12 is clearly not playing the same game as the B1G and SEC - but from being dead multiple times the past decade to clearly positioned to be the P3 under very proactive leadership is pretty remarkable.

The new 16-team league (likely) may lack historical marque programs but features just a tremendously solid slate that includes - if we are talking purely results recently - most of the actual best on the field products of each league. With the Jayhawks turning it around and Deion generating at the very least excitement in Boulder - there won’t be many uncompetitive conference games in tap. And the hoops will be inarguably awesome. Yes, we all know football is king - but the long game of having such a beastly hoops conference in addition to strong football will make the prospect of the B1G and SEC simply breaking away from the NCAA and not including the third power conference far less palatable.

The benefit of strong and deep without historical marque names is also what we are going to see next - sure the B1G can offer a Big 12 school at any point…but they aren’t going to. The ACC dominoes are next and the underlying dissatisfaction in that conference already mirrors what was bubbling in the PAC for years.

I have no complaints. There is no better option that's still out there once Oregon and Washington were off the table since the better realistic options in the East are all locked in by the ACC's GoR for now. They're easily a better add than Oregon State, Washington State, or Cal (who just doesn't give af about football) and Stanford is probably going to go independent and still be fine. Now, what they're not is a better add than NC State or Virginia Tech, but they're both off the table... for now.

The only people this could legitimately anger is BYU.

 

[BKarchitect]

I honestly wonder if the bolded is why the B1G passed on adding Stanford. If they get word from Notre Dame that if Stanford joins they'll be open to a move, I think Stanford is in the B1G right now, even if it means that the B1G would have had to add Cal as well to seal the deal. ND says "nah, we good", so B1G says Oregon and Washington it is then.

Notre Dame has no reason to move. I think they rather like their current position. All the NBC money and all the access. I don’t think Stanford is the lure that’s going to get them to move.

The B1G clearly vetted Stanford and Cal. I just don’t think they are priorities. I don’t think they want Cal. And now Sauron’s eye shines to the East. Stanford isn’t really going anywhere so they can always go back to that well later.

 

[DaveG]

PAC 8 coming back?

more like the remnants merge with the Mountain West and just adopt the PAC name.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

Notre Dame has no reason to move. I think they rather like their current position. All the NBC money and all the access. I don’t think Stanford is the lure that’s going to get them to move.

The B1G clearly vetted Stanford and Cal. I just don’t think they are priorities. I don’t think they want Cal. And now Sauron’s eye shines to the East. Stanford isn’t really going anywhere so they can always go back to that well later.

If ND joins the Big Ten it will be for non-football sports only. NBC doesn't want ND in the conference for football because they want two packages on their network. Even then, ND has to wait until the ACC GOR expires. ND would play some Big Ten teams in football every year as part of the deal, with ND having access to the Big Ten's lineup of minor bowls - the same deal they have with the ACC now,

 

[MMC]

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

I have no complaints. There is no better option that's still out there once Oregon and Washington were off the table since the better realistic options in the East are all locked in by the ACC's GoR for now. They're easily a better add than Oregon State, Washington State, or Cal (who just doesn't give af about football) and Stanford is probably going to go independent and still be fine. Now, what they're not is a better add than NC State or Virginia Tech, but they're both off the table... for now.

The only people this could legitimately anger is BYU.

Actually, BYU would love the idea of the Holy War being a conference game again. It hasn't been since 2010, the last year both schools were in the MW. BYU was kept out of the Pac by their character.

The Big 12 could shore up its western presence with Oregon State, Washington State, and Boise State to establish a foothold in the NW US. Boise State has been a good mid-major school for most of its time in FBS, not having had a losing season since 1997 (this is the longest active streak of winning seasons in FBS). They also have a budding OOC rivalry with BYU, and another attractive aspect of them is their field. Once the only non-green playing surface in FBS, the blue turf could become the the only non-green field in all the P5 with a BSU move to the Big 12.

 

[MMC]

 

[red devil]

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

These developments don't change my view about wanting not only Boise State, but also Memphis, SMU, South Florida, Temple, Tulane and UConn in the conference, with the home markets of the latter 6 being the main attraction (markets do matter after all, it's been a driving factor of realignment for decades now). I fully expect Cal and Stanford also be accepted into the Big Ten. All in all, the Big 12 and Big Ten would become the largest conferences in all of college sports, both spanning from coast to coast.