Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

[No Fun Shogun]

And that'll just about kill the Pac 12.

Wonder what the Big Ten will do with the Rose Bowl Game now....

 

[GKJ]

And that'll just about kill the Pac 12.

Wonder what the Big Ten will do with the Rose Bowl Game now....

It’s not really going to matter once you get into the extended playoff.

I will never understand fans feeling some type of loyalty to a particular conference. It's honestly one of the most cringeworthy things I see grown men doing in the professional sports world. I am a UCLA (mom went there, watched them growing up) and Georgia (bandwagon adopted in high school because I wanted a top football program to cheer for along with UCLA in basketball) and I could give a f*** less where either played. I actually prefer the Big Ten and their matchups for UCLA

The concept only exists because there was an ‘SEC vs. the World’ mentality once upon a time until it became SEC vs. Big Ten.

 

[BKarchitect]

Are Utah and ASU gonna take the life raft or are they determined to hold their noses up and sink into the MW 2.0?

Michael Crow the ASU prez has seemed determined to keep ASU associated with the like of Stanford and Cal academically. Utah has tried to position itself as a B1G commodity but that’s downright laughable - that offer ain’t coming and the B1G, with its premium Pacific pod sewn up, will now turn its attention to the big fish in the ACC.

It’ll be very interesting to see what the Big 12 does next because now there are options. I like the conference going ahead and competing the Mountain zone wing but there is always a chance it’s just Arizona for now and Yormark keeps the powder dry and media renegotiations on hold until the ACC starts to unravel. I also wouldn’t completely rule out the likes of San Diego State and UConn eventually although the no pro-rata for G5 will probably kill those chances.

 

[MMC]

 

[mouser]

With UW and UO leaving the PAC is dead. No reason for ASU and Utah not to jump now.

 

[BKarchitect]

With UW and UO leaving the PAC is dead. No reason for ASU and Utah not to jump now.

Does the Big 12 want not committed members who were drug screaming and shouting from their old home? Part of the reason the Big 12 is surviving and now expanding is a unified set of presidents, ADs and a bright commissioner who they all back.

I don’t think this is quite a guarantee yet re: ASU and Utah. Don’t get me wrong - I think it is what will happen. But Yormark has stressed opening new markets and having a nationwide schedule. Which now neither of those schools will truly be. He’s probably also eyeing the second-tier ACC schools if that situation devolves like Pitt, Louisville, Va Tech, etc who can reinforce the eastern wing to pair with WVU, Cincy, etc.

Those two PAC schools lost a ton of leverage and put themselves in peril by not being proactive. The Big 12 doesn’t have to take them now. They should but they don’t have to.

 

[GKJ]

Does the Big 12 want not committed members who were drug screaming and shouting from their old home? Part of the reason the Big 12 is surviving and now expanding is a unified set of presidents, ADs and a bright commissioner who they all back.

I don’t think this is quite a guarantee yet re: ASU and Utah. Don’t get me wrong - I think it is what will happen. But Yormark has stressed opening new markets and having a nationwide schedule. Which now neither of those schools will truly be. He’s probably also eyeing the second-tier ACC schools if that situation devolves like Pitt, Louisville, Va Tech, etc who can reinforce the eastern wing to pair with WVU, Cincy, etc.

Those two PAC schools lost a ton of leverage and put themselves in peril by not being proactive. The Big 12 doesn’t have to take them now. They should but they don’t have to.

I’ve always been about Virginia Tech getting to the Big 12. That was before Texas and OU left though.

 

[Gnashville]

After Texas and Oklahoma left everyone thought the Big XII was dead now it appears that it may come out stronger minus those two.

 

[mouser]

Does the Big 12 want not committed members who were drug screaming and shouting from their old home? Part of the reason the Big 12 is surviving and now expanding is a unified set of presidents, ADs and a bright commissioner who they all back.

I don’t think this is quite a guarantee yet re: ASU and Utah. Don’t get me wrong - I think it is what will happen. But Yormark has stressed opening new markets and having a nationwide schedule. Which now neither of those schools will truly be. He’s probably also eyeing the second-tier ACC schools if that situation devolves like Pitt, Louisville, Va Tech, etc who can reinforce the eastern wing to pair with WVU, Cincy, etc.

Those two PAC schools lost a ton of leverage and put themselves in peril by not being proactive. The Big 12 doesn’t have to take them now. They should but they don’t have to.

The Arizona board of regents has the authority to require UA and ASU stay together in the same conference. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that's what happens as the PAC implodes.

This wouldn't be like requiring a conference to take a small school along with a state flagship school. Both ASU and UA are massive--they would rank #1 and #3 in enrollment among the Big 12. Statewide population for Arizona is #14, over twice the size of #30 Utah. I'm pretty certain ASU has the larger media market share over UA within Arizona as well. Having roughly 60% more alumni and being located in the main population center. The Tempe ASU campus is the 6th largest in the nation, trailing only Texas A&M, UCF, Rutgers, Florida and Ohio State.

Utah I could see the Big 12 passing on with BYU already there--a much smaller market--if there are more enticing options.


I'm skeptical the ACC to going to let schools go without keeping their Grant of Rights. I read through their league constitution and the only obvious way I see for the schools to pull it off is if they can get 8 of the 15 schools together to agreed to dissolve the conference. Are there enough schools willing to do that? And if they do there's a whole new can of legal worms that would be opened. Such as lawsuit and penalties for any contracts the conference has. And if the prospective 8 schools were negotiating with prospective media partners ahead of time that opens up the potential for tortuous interference with contracts suits as well.

 

[GKJ]

After Texas and Oklahoma left everyone thought the Big XII was dead now it appears that it may come out stronger minus those two.

I believed it. Pac 12 incompetence didn’t let it though.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

The Arizona board of regents has the authority to require UA and ASU stay together in the same conference. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that's what happens as the PAC implodes.

This wouldn't be like requiring a conference to take a small school along with a state flagship school. Both ASU and UA are massive--they would rank #1 and #3 in enrollment among the Big 12. Statewide population for Arizona is #14, over twice the size of #30 Utah. I'm pretty certain ASU has the larger media market share over UA within Arizona as well. Having roughly 60% more alumni and being located in the main population center. The Tempe ASU campus is the 6th largest in the nation, trailing only Texas A&M, UCF, Rutgers, Florida and Ohio State.

Utah I could see the Big 12 passing on with BYU already there--a much smaller market--if there are more enticing options.


I'm skeptical the ACC to going to let schools go without keeping their Grant of Rights. I read through their league constitution and the only obvious way I see for the schools to pull it off is if they can get 8 of the 15 schools together to agreed to dissolve the conference. Are there enough schools willing to do that? And if they do there's a whole new can of legal worms that would be opened. Such as lawsuit and penalties for any contracts the conference has. And if the prospective 8 schools were negotiating with prospective media partners ahead of time that opens up the potential for tortuous interference with contracts suits as well.

The Big 12 could on the other hand be enticed by the idea of BYU-Utah being a conference game for the first time since 2010.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

PAC’s all but dead now. All that's left to find out which join the Big Ten (Stanford and Cal), which join the Big 12 (ASU and Utah), and which are stuck up joining a mid-major conference (OSU and WSU).

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

The Big 12 has mentioned wanting to be a four time zone league. They talked about Gonzaga in the past but they are not a good fit. If the Big 12 wanted a PTZ presence Oregon State and Washington State would be the way to go.

 

[KevFu]

They are the Air Force though. They have planes.

I used to make that joke that they can join any conference because they can just fly INDIVIDUALLY a lot faster than commerical/charter. But no school has the ability for them to park 110 F-14s next to the stadium!

So I guess my question to this is why did Big 10 Network do so well, while PAC-12 Network flopped?

Two main reasons: #1 Carriage. Big Ten partnered with FOX, who bundled it into their deals/negotiations with cable providers. You want Fox News, you carry BTN.... in Big Ten territory you carry it on BASIC. So the Big Ten was pulling in huge subscriber fees every month from every cable customer in Big Ten states (and Rutgers/Maryland provided NYC and DC). The Big Ten had to SHARE those revenues with FOX, but FOX also provided a ton of the infrastructure needed to run a network.

Pac-12... went alone with no partner like FOX. They negotiated carriage themselves (had to hire a staff to do that), and they have no leverage outside Pac-12 cities. Plus they had bear the burden of all the expenses themselves, starting a national TV operation with uplinks and distribution by themselves.

And of course, they rented office space for the conference office and Pac-12 Network HQ in downtown San Francisco, which cost $696,000 PER MONTH in rent.

They can, just, if you're Tulane, why would you do it? Is it worth being in the Pac 12 when you could possibly wait your turn to get picked up by the Big 12 or ACC?

Tulane gets like $8m in the American. They can join any conference as long as they're good enough to be invited and the geography works in their favor of being Central Time Zone and just a fun place to visit.

Two weeks ago, if the Pac-12 had locked down a TV deal/expansion plan for SDSU/Fresno/SMU/Tulane in a Pac-14 at $25m per school (Colorado doesn't leave), Tulane jumps at that chance.

The more money you have, the more likely you are to be good. Being in the Pac-14 doesn't eliminate the option of joining the Big 12 or ACC in the future. GO BEAT ARIZONA in the Pac-14 and get invited! Stay and lose to UAB/Rice/Charlotte and no invite is coming.

 

[Spydey629]

I will never understand fans feeling some type of loyalty to a particular conference. It's honestly one of the most cringeworthy things I see grown men doing in the professional sports world. I am a UCLA (mom went there, watched them growing up) and Georgia (bandwagon adopted in high school because I wanted a top football program to cheer for along with UCLA in basketball) and I could give a f*** less where either played. I actually prefer the Big Ten and their matchups for UCLA

(DEEP breath…)

It’s several things. Part nostalgia, part human tendency to hate change.

I grew up with Penn State just becoming a Big Ten team, with my freshman year coming in 1997. There were a couple schools we only played once at that point.

But I grew up with the Rose Bowl. Pac-10 and Big Ten. New Years Day. Every. Single. Year. I grew up with “Friends don’t let friends go to Pitt”.

The Pac-12 is all but dead now. It is inconceivable that this could happen to the self proclaimed “Conference of Champions”. As Penn Staters, we laughed when the Big East fell apart, because it was Pitt and Rutgers.

But to see so much history just die, all for the sake of TV money, just hurts. Kansas should be playing Missouri. Texas should be playing all the little brother schools. And Bedlam should still be played… And the Civil War… And the Apple Cup.

Part of what feeds college sports is passion. Passion for your school, and passionately hating your rival, whether it is in-state or a neighboring state.

That’s all gone away in the past decade plus. It’s not necessarily a love for the conference as a whole, but the sport as it used to be.

 

[joelef]

(DEEP breath…)

It’s several things. Part nostalgia, part human tendency to hate change.

I grew up with Penn State just becoming a Big Ten team, with my freshman year coming in 1997. There were a couple schools we only played once at that point.

But I grew up with the Rose Bowl. Pac-10 and Big Ten. New Years Day. Every. Single. Year. I grew up with “Friends don’t let friends go to Pitt”.

The Pac-12 is all but dead now. It is inconceivable that this could happen to the self proclaimed “Conference of Champions”. As Penn Staters, we laughed when the Big East fell apart, because it was Pitt and Rutgers.

But to see so much history just die, all for the sake of TV money, just hurts. Kansas should be playing Missouri. Texas should be playing all the little brother schools. And Bedlam should still be played… And the Civil War… And the Apple Cup.

Part of what feeds college sports is passion. Passion for your school, and passionately hating your rival, whether it is in-state or a neighboring state.

That’s all gone away in the past decade plus. It’s not necessarily a love for the conference as a whole, but the sport as it used to be.

People defended out of control coaching salaries, massive tv deals, pros style facilities for years now . Don’t get why fans are mad for a monster they created.

 

[KevFu]

Thought that occurred to me is how long might the PAC hold together under the Apple TV deal?

After Texas and Oklahoma left everyone thought the Big XII was dead now it appears that it may come out stronger minus those two.

It's all about the collective confidence. The reason the Big 12 seemed dead and doomed was because ESPN was trying to break them up: incite panic that they're worthless, and force them to jump ship to the Pac-12 and American... so the Big 12 would dissolve and ESPN would get Texas/Oklahoma to the SEC faster (and not pay a dissolved conference the $1.6 billion they owed them).

But when the Big 12 called them out on their shenanigans, the Big 12 raided the American, used their evidence against ESPN to get a TV deal. And now ESPN no longer had any money for the Pac-12.

The Pac-12 can't rally because no TV partner is there with ESPN shunning them; so the members have no confidence in the group and are all looking for better options.

EVEN THOUGH the Pac-10 schools are bigger/better to TV than the Big 12 was, there's no reason for anyone but ESPN to offer them the same kind of money as the Big 12. Which makes everyone in the Pac-12 want to join a conference that gets more money.

Fox isn't going to say "We can get the Pac-12 for $25m per school" because they don't need as much programming as ESPN, since Fox is like half capacity of the ABC/ESPN goliath.

 

[GKJ]

I used to make that joke that they can join any conference because they can just fly INDIVIDUALLY a lot faster than commerical/charter. But no school has the ability for them to park 110 F-14s next to the stadium!




Two main reasons: #1 Carriage. Big Ten partnered with FOX, who bundled it into their deals/negotiations with cable providers. You want Fox News, you carry BTN.... in Big Ten territory you carry it on BASIC. So the Big Ten was pulling in huge subscriber fees every month from every cable customer in Big Ten states (and Rutgers/Maryland provided NYC and DC). The Big Ten had to SHARE those revenues with FOX, but FOX also provided a ton of the infrastructure needed to run a network.

Pac-12... went alone with no partner like FOX. They negotiated carriage themselves (had to hire a staff to do that), and they have no leverage outside Pac-12 cities. Plus they had bear the burden of all the expenses themselves, starting a national TV operation with uplinks and distribution by themselves.

And of course, they rented office space for the conference office and Pac-12 Network HQ in downtown San Francisco, which cost $696,000 PER MONTH in rent.




Tulane gets like $8m in the American. They can join any conference as long as they're good enough to be invited and the geography works in their favor of being Central Time Zone and just a fun place to visit.

Two weeks ago, if the Pac-12 had locked down a TV deal/expansion plan for SDSU/Fresno/SMU/Tulane in a Pac-14 at $25m per school (Colorado doesn't leave), Tulane jumps at that chance.

The more money you have, the more likely you are to be good. Being in the Pac-14 doesn't eliminate the option of joining the Big 12 or ACC in the future. GO BEAT ARIZONA in the Pac-14 and get invited! Stay and lose to UAB/Rice/Charlotte and no invite is coming.

Yeah, they could but I see Tulane as one of the next moves for the Big 12 actually if they take Arizona State and need a 16th team. Or the ACC if some others split.

 

[gstommylee]

this whole college football alignment mess just shows how awful NCAA has been at being a governing body.

(DEEP breath…)

It’s several things. Part nostalgia, part human tendency to hate change.

I grew up with Penn State just becoming a Big Ten team, with my freshman year coming in 1997. There were a couple schools we only played once at that point.

But I grew up with the Rose Bowl. Pac-10 and Big Ten. New Years Day. Every. Single. Year. I grew up with “Friends don’t let friends go to Pitt”.

The Pac-12 is all but dead now. It is inconceivable that this could happen to the self proclaimed “Conference of Champions”. As Penn Staters, we laughed when the Big East fell apart, because it was Pitt and Rutgers.

But to see so much history just die, all for the sake of TV money, just hurts. Kansas should be playing Missouri. Texas should be playing all the little brother schools. And Bedlam should still be played… And the Civil War… And the Apple Cup.

Part of what feeds college sports is passion. Passion for your school, and passionately hating your rival, whether it is in-state or a neighboring state.

That’s all gone away in the past decade plus. It’s not necessarily a love for the conference as a whole, but the sport as it used to be.

I don't watch much of college sports anymore i may tune into NCAA march madness now and then but as far as college football is i haven't watched any of the games on tv in a while.

 

[BKarchitect]

Yeah, they could but I see Tulane as one of the next moves for the Big 12 actually if they take Arizona State and need a 16th team. Or the ACC if some others split.

UConn will be the outlier add, guaranteed, if the PAC schools drag their feet and Yormark can convince the B12 presidents.

Yormark is a northeast guy and he’s a basketball guy. He wants UConn, he wants KU-UConn-AZ-Baylor-Houston in basketball and he wants a flag in the Northeast.

The B12 presidents are not convinced about their fit if we are talking full membership and there is no chance of ESPN and Fox extending pro rata for a G5 school.

The other option is just have UConn and Gonzaga join as basketball only members.

 

[gstommylee]

People defended out of control coaching salaries, massive tv deals, pros style facilities for years now . Don’t get why fans are mad for a monster they created.

it will be interesting to see if the change on how tv is viewed causes $$ for college sports to start dropping at some point down the road and these big conferences start losing money cause they are too big.

 

[joelef]

it will be interesting to see if the change on how tv is viewed causes $$ for college sports to start dropping at some point down the road and these big conferences start losing money cause they are too big.

(DEEP breath…)

It’s several things. Part nostalgia, part human tendency to hate change.

I grew up with Penn State just becoming a Big Ten team, with my freshman year coming in 1997. There were a couple schools we only played once at that point.

But I grew up with the Rose Bowl. Pac-10 and Big Ten. New Years Day. Every. Single. Year. I grew up with “Friends don’t let friends go to Pitt”.

The Pac-12 is all but dead now. It is inconceivable that this could happen to the self proclaimed “Conference of Champions”. As Penn Staters, we laughed when the Big East fell apart, because it was Pitt and Rutgers.

But to see so much history just die, all for the sake of TV money, just hurts. Kansas should be playing Missouri. Texas should be playing all the little brother schools. And Bedlam should still be played… And the Civil War… And the Apple Cup.

Part of what feeds college sports is passion. Passion for your school, and passionately hating your rival, whether it is in-state or a neighboring state.

That’s all gone away in the past decade plus. It’s not necessarily a love for the conference as a whole, but the sport as it used to be.

Stop with the virtue signaling it’s always been a massive capitalist monster as way back even the 1890s. To many college football fans are living in complete fantasy land.

 

[KevFu]

Tulane's main value is that:

(a) they're in the middle. ACC could push West; Pac-12 could push East. Big 12 could need a good travel partner.

(b) People want into Texas because of the population/recruiting of the state, and Tulane is right next to Texas, with good recruiting grounds of their own. So if you want SMU but you don't want SMU on an island 800 miles from anyone else in the league... SMU/Tulane makes sense for the Pac-12 or ACC.

(c) No Presidents are going to mad about the academic standards of Tulane. You want into Texas, and Pac-12 (before this month) and ACC would look down their noses academically at North Texas and UTSA.

(d) They're better at sports than Rice, who has virtually the same thing going for them, with a bonus of being in HOUSTON instead of NOLA.... but Rice has pretty much sucked at football/basketball for 60 years and Tulane at least went undefeated in 1998 and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl this year (And somehow finished THIRD in MBB this past year!).

 

[gstommylee]

Stop with the virtue signaling it’s always been a massive capitalist monster as way back even the 1890s. To many college football fans are living in complete fantasy land.

and for decades the only way to watch tv was through tv provider either cable or satellite tv.

Now streaming is a thing and people who are switching who mostly don't care for sports to what is the cheaper option to view what they want. And that movement already is having a impact on NBA/NHL/MLB eventually its going start impacting college sport.

 

[mouser]

UConn will be the outlier add, guaranteed, if the PAC schools drag their feet and Yormark can convince the B12 presidents.

Yormark is a northeast guy and he’s a basketball guy. He wants UConn, he wants KU-UConn-AZ-Baylor-Houston in basketball and he wants a flag in the Northeast.

The B12 presidents are not convinced about their fit if we are talking full membership and there is no chance of ESPN and Fox extending pro rata for a G5 school.

The other option is just have UConn and Gonzaga join as basketball only members.

One potential issue with UConn: I've seen reports the Big 12 media deal permits them to expand to 16 teams with increased $'s, but only if teams 15 & 16 come from P5 conferences.