Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

[StreetHawk]

I think the B1G was, and remains, very interested in UW and UO. They had the option to be patient and wait things out last year.

The biggest thing that’s changed between then and now for the B1G is the potential urgency to make a decision on UW/UO if the PAC implodes.

Feels like a merger between Pac12/Big10, while the SEC merges with Big12/ACC.

Adds value so long as they have good matchups. USC vs Michigan, OSU, PSU, Wisconsin is great. But, USC vs Maryland, Rutgers, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois, etc. not so much.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

The thing is that the Big Ten wants to be a national brand, and their long play is doing that by expanding their footprint. Rutgers was a hilariously misguided attempt to get NYC attention, but USC/UCLA is a much more meaningful move into California.

Northern California and the Pacific Northwest are no small potatoes for sure, but my hunch remains that the Northeast and the South remains their primary hope if the ACC starts to unravel.

Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, UNC, and Georgia Tech would be their dream targets right now, imho. UConn, too, but obviously not ACC.

And for the record, I have had some very minor connections with Illinois, but under no circumstances do I have an in with the conference itself. This is just my hunches, and admittedly while I was right in advance about Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers, I got them missing Mizzou wrong and USC/UCLA caught me completely by surprise.

 

[DaveG]

I really don't get the interest in Cal in the "but nobody gives a f*** about Cal football" sense. Stanford at least makes some sense as Domer bait. Wouldn't be a good move unless they come as a package with the Domers, but it makes SOME sense to trigger some interest on NDs part.

To the B1G's credit I haven't heard word one about BC who similarly would be a big market expander in theory but nobody gives a f*** about their football.

 

[mouser]

The thing is that the Big Ten wants to be a national brand, and their long play is doing that by expanding their footprint. Rutgers was a hilariously misguided attempt to get NYC attention, but USC/UCLA is a much more meaningful move into California.

Northern California and the Pacific Northwest are no small potatoes for sure, but my hunch remains that the Northeast and the South remains their primary hope if the ACC starts to unravel.

Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, UNC, and Georgia Tech would be their dream targets right now, imho. UConn, too, but obviously not ACC.

And for the record, I have had some very minor connections with Illinois, but under no circumstances do I have an in with the conference itself. This is just my hunches, and admittedly while I was right in advance about Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers, I got them missing Mizzou wrong and USC/UCLA caught me completely by surprise.

I‘m confident the B1G has zero interest in Syracuse or Boston College. Smaller private universities which don’t out punch their weight in their respective media markets.

Virginia and UNC would absolutely be top targets for a B1G expansion.

I‘m skeptical the B1G would covet Georgia Tech, but maybe I’m wrong. My thought is they’d prefer to target the top dog in any state, not the #2 dog. CA and FL are large enough where the #2 and maybe #3 schools are still enticing B1G targets. I’m not so confident that’s the same with GA. NY is an oddball where state laws preclude heavy athletic spending at the big public universities.

I would lump in UConn closer to the zero interest group. They just don’t bring enough in media market size/share—there are bigger fish out there.

 

[DaveG]

The thing is that the Big Ten wants to be a national brand, and their long play is doing that by expanding their footprint. Rutgers was a hilariously misguided attempt to get NYC attention, but USC/UCLA is a much more meaningful move into California.

Northern California and the Pacific Northwest are no small potatoes for sure, but my hunch remains that the Northeast and the South remains their primary hope if the ACC starts to unravel.

Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, UNC, and Georgia Tech would be their dream targets right now, imho. UConn, too, but obviously not ACC.

And for the record, I have had some very minor connections with Illinois, but under no circumstances do I have an in with the conference itself. This is just my hunches, and admittedly while I was right in advance about Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers, I got them missing Mizzou wrong and USC/UCLA caught me completely by surprise.

I still think Duke makes some sense for the B1G. Nobody cares about their football, but they're a national brand in basketball and the Duke-UNC rivalry makes adding the pair a better play than adding just one. And it's the B1G, academics still play a role, Duke (and Stanford for that matter) are better schools than the majority of the Ivies.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

TV markets are more key, though. Syracuse opens up New York State, UConn is a meaningful into metro New York, and BC adds New England proper in getting BTN in front of eyeballs. Georgia Tech would be for Atlanta and recognizing that neither the SEC or the Big Ten aren't going to poach each other.

I would agree with you in that Virginia and UNC are their cream of the crop expansion targets.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I still think Duke makes some sense for the B1G. Nobody cares about their football, but they're a national brand in basketball and the Duke-UNC rivalry makes adding the pair a better play than adding just one. And it's the B1G, academics still plays a role, Duke (and Stanford for that matter) are better schools than the majority of the Ivies.

Duke certainty has a brand, but North Carolina is no southern California. I don't think that the Big Ten will double dip in other places other then maybe Northern California, I guess, and of the NC options UNC is the bigger prize.

But UNC's fake class habits are pretty egregious.

 

[DaveG]

Duke certainty has a brand, but North Carolina is no southern California. I don't think that the Big Ten will double dip in other places other then maybe Northern California, I guess, and of the NC options UNC is the bigger prize.

But UNC's fake class habits are pretty egregious.

Definitely more fitting with the SEC in that regard, though UNC is too stuck up to accept a bid there if the B1G is on the table imo.

 

[red devil]

I really don't get the interest in Cal in the "but nobody gives a f*** about Cal football" sense. Stanford at least makes some sense as Domer bait. Wouldn't be a good move unless they come as a package with the Domers, but it makes SOME sense to trigger some interest on NDs part.

To the B1G's credit I haven't heard word one about BC who similarly would be a big market expander in theory but nobody gives a f*** about their football.

Dan Wetzel gives a short explanation on why the B1G would be interested in Stanford and Cal.

 

[adsfan]

Now do since 1992 when the SEC expanded to 12 teams and went to divisions. Pre 1980’s as many as 8 teams claimed National Championships some years. Then came the BCS and later a playoff. Most of those Championships are flimsy at best including Alabama’s 16. Tennessee and Georgia also claim 6 National Championships BTW

I can only remember 2 teams claiming a title in the same year. In 1966, it was Notre Dame (9-0-1, tied Michigan State 9-0-1 in their last game of the season). Neither one played in a bowl game. BTW, that is as far back as I can remember most sports.

TN and GA must have won during the 1920s and/or early 1930s.

 

[mouser]

I still think Duke makes some sense for the B1G. Nobody cares about their football, but they're a national brand in basketball and the Duke-UNC rivalry makes adding the pair a better play than adding just one. And it's the B1G, academics still play a role, Duke (and Stanford for that matter) are better schools than the majority of the Ivies.

The B1G wants all member schools to meet a minimum academic threshold to even be considered. After that it’s all about size, conference footprint, market/market share. If the B1G has UNC they’re already reaping the benefits of maybe 80% of the NC market. Adding in Duke would be a small incremental advantage. Much better to use that expansion slot for a Virginia, Washington or Oregon instead of Duke.

 

[DaveG]

The B1G wants all member schools to meet a minimum academic threshold to even be considered. After that it’s all about size, conference footprint, market/market share. If the B1G has UNC they’re already reaping the benefits of maybe 80% of the NC market. Adding in Duke would be a small incremental advantage. Much better to use that expansion slot for a Virginia, Washington or Oregon instead of Duke.

I still think the end goal for the B1G here is 24, the two possibilities I see outside of Duke if they take the 4 Pacific coast teams (as well as UNC and UVA obviously) are Georgia Tech and Miami. I think Notre Dame joins eventually anyway, even if not immediately.

 

[mouser]

TV markets are more key, though. Syracuse opens up New York State, UConn is a meaningful into metro New York, and BC adds New England proper in getting BTN in front of eyeballs. Georgia Tech would be for Atlanta and recognizing that neither the SEC or the Big Ten aren't going to poach each other.

I would agree with you in that Virginia and UNC are their cream of the crop expansion targets.

It sounds great in theory, but I don’t believe the market share of these three schools in their respectively large potential markets is enough to entice the B1G. They want bigger fish in my opinion.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

It sounds great in theory, but I don’t believe the market share of these three schools in their respectively large potential markets is enough to entice the B1G. They want bigger fish in my opinion.

Counterpoint, the Big Ten thought Rutgers was a good idea for a market expansion standpoint.

Not laying out what I want, to be clear, haha.

 

[BKarchitect]

Arizona board of regents having another emergency meeting tomorrow - this time discussion of the athletic programs of the schools is explicitly on the agenda.

Sounds pretty likely now that both AZ schools will attempt to be a package deal to the Big 12. ASU insiders say their pro-PAC stance has changed considerably in the last couple of days. Furthermore - Utah - perhaps the most fervent PAC supporter left given what being in the PAC has done for their football team and the fact that BYU is in the Big 12…admin there seems to be coming around to moving to ensure safety through this next round of realignment.

If the PAC loses all three schools or even just the AZ schools for 2024, I wonder how quickly UO and UW can move to the B1G or how quickly the B1G would invite them? Will UW and UO accept the “Rutgers/Maryland” partial pay-out schedule deal to move in at the same time as USC and UCLA would move in fully vested next year? Does the B1G force the PacNW powers to squirm a bit because they are busy batting eyelashes at FSU, UNC, Clemson and UVA now that FSU has basically said the ACC GoR is trash and they don’t really care?

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

I've been advocating for the Bay Area schools to move their field hockey teams to the Big Ten for years. The America East is not a good fit for them academically (geography doesn't matter here).

Utah also has a men's lacrosse team in the ASUN. They joined the AAU a few years ago, making them acceptable for Big Ten associate membership in men's lacrosse.

 

[mouser]

Counterpoint, the Big Ten thought Rutgers was a good idea.

Not laying out what I want, ro be clear, haha.

Rutgers is really interesting. They’re the flagship school in a big media market, and NJ is one of the top 10 states in producing football talent. If they could ever get their **** together Rutgers could be a powerhouse simply by recruiting in-state.

I do wonder if adding Rutgers has helped the B1G in recruiting NJ? If it has by any decent % that’s a benefit.

 

[mouser]

I still think the end goal for the B1G here is 24, the two possibilities I see outside of Duke if they take the 4 Pacific coast teams (as well as UNC and UVA obviously) are Georgia Tech and Miami. I think Notre Dame joins eventually anyway, even if not immediately.

I doubt they have an end number in mind.

With the ACC’s current grant of rights running through 2036 I can’t see any team leaving the ACC before 2036 unless a majority of ACC members vote to disband the conference first.

 

[BKarchitect]

I doubt they have an end number in mind.

With the ACC’s current grant of rights running through 2036 I can’t see any team leaving the ACC before 2036 unless a majority of ACC members vote to disband the conference first.

They will find a way. Even if it’s some negotiated settlement.

I firmly believe there is zero chance FSU and Clemson will be in the ACC in two years. FSU doesn’t publicly say the things it did today through multiple of its most powerful leaders and decision makers without basically willing to go to legal war to get out of the GoR. They have chosen the nuclear option, clearly.

 

[mouser]

They will find a way. Even if it’s some negotiated settlement.

I firmly believe there is zero chance FSU and Clemson will be in the ACC in two years. FSU doesn’t publicly say the things it did today through multiple of its most powerful leaders and decision makers without basically willing to go to legal war to get out of the GoR. They have chosen the nuclear option, clearly.

Definitely possible. Enforcing the GoR may be legally complex. Have only skimmed the barest of details but I can see potential issues when multiple state laws and legislatures are involved.

I‘m sure FSU has no shortage of lawyers advising them.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Rutgers is really interesting. They’re the flagship school in a big media market, and NJ is one of the top 10 states in producing football talent. If they could ever get their **** together Rutgers could be a powerhouse simply by recruiting in-state.

I do wonder if adding Rutgers has helped the B1G in recruiting NJ? If it has by any decent % that’s a benefit.

NJ has good talent, but expanding into Rutgers to tap into the media market would be akin to wanting to pick up Northwestern to get a crack at Chicago's media market. Go a mile and a half in any direction from NWU and you'll find about as many fans, and I say that predicating the joke on understanding that east of them is empty water.

And that's a mighty big "if," to be fair. They're not poised to pull a U for a few years.

 

[HisIceness]

I want college football to collapse so f***ing hard. The sport is not enjoyable anymore yet its as big as its ever been. U of Georgia it would appear is about to start an Alabama like dynasty which, good for them but if you're a fan of a school like Mississippi State or Kansas or Texas Tech, you might occasionally have a 10 win season but it's not sustainable for one reason or another.

I've always been more of a college hoops fan and I hate how all the realignments are done to benefit football and screw everyone else. Someone mentioned field hockey but who the hell wants to travel cross-country to play a conference opponent?

College Basketball already peaked. It's still a popular thing in March but it doesn't have anywhere near the star power it once did. Eventually the novelty of this realignment and superconference will wear off and Football will follow suit. For me it can't happen soon enough, unfortunately it's going to be awhile.

 

[Spydey629]

I still think the end goal for the B1G here is 24, the two possibilities I see outside of Duke if they take the 4 Pacific coast teams (as well as UNC and UVA obviously) are Georgia Tech and Miami. I think Notre Dame joins eventually anyway, even if not immediately.

As a Penn State alum, We Are - safe in all this, but it still makes me sick to the stomach.

I can’t fathom how unwieldy a 24-team conference would be. There’d be years with basketball teams not playing each other - football would be a five year rotation, and a quagmire if multiple teams wound up undefeated…

 

[BKarchitect]

As a Penn State alum, We Are - safe in all this, but it still makes me sick to the stomach.

I can’t fathom how unwieldy a 24-team conference would be. There’d be years with basketball teams not playing each other - football would be a five year rotation, and a quagmire if multiple teams wound up undefeated…

I mean the conferences are going to get huge and then you’ll have to have some sort of regional scheduling creating divisions or permanent rivalries within the conferences (whether or not they actually sort them like that in the standings) for travel purposes and then we will end up basically with a version of how everything used to be - just under different money-making apparatuses.

It’s like when I looked at my monthly bill and saw Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, Apple+, Max, Disney+, etc and had the realization - aren’t I just paying for a la carte cable???

Time is a circle…

 

[mouser]

NJ has good talent, but expanding into Rutgers to tap into the media market would be akin to wanting to pick up Northwestern to get a crack at Chicago's media market. Go a mile and a half in any direction from NWU and you'll find about as many fans, and I say that predicating the joke on understanding that east of them is empty water.

And that's a mighty big "if," to be fair. They're not poised to pull a U for a few years.

fwiw, I suspect if the B1G was picking between Northwestern and Rutgers as new expansion candidates today they‘d go with Rutgers.