Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[GeorgeJETson]

Lundell at 21, Perfetti at 55.

While one could argue one player is better than another, that wide of a gap seems highly suspect to me.

Glad I cancelled my Athletic subscription a while ago. I can get this level of quality rankings from a million and one NHL sites for free

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Did you know that with some clever scrolling you can actually see quite a bit of that list (in chunks) before the website issues its cease and desist order? I got down into the 70's when I got bored and moved on.

 

[MardyBum]

Pronman's not watching the NHL as much as he does undrafted prospects. He's *just a guy* when it comes to post draft years.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Lundell at 21, Perfetti at 55.

While one could argue one player is better than another, that wide of a gap seems highly suspect to me.

Glad I cancelled my Athletic subscription a while ago. I can get this level of quality rankings from a million and one NHL sites for free

I'm not sure we shouldn't have taken Lundell. I wanted him at the time. But at the time, I didn't expect Perfetti to be available so .........

But - I think Perfetti has already improved his speed and I expect it to be better this year. I think he needs to learn how to play to protect himself and I expect progress there this year too. So I don't agree with the criticisms that seem to have lead to the gap in the ratings. The durability will remain a concern until it is not. Time will tell.

 

[10Ducky10]

If they start Perfetti at center, Nino and Vilardi would make nice wingers.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I'm not sure we shouldn't have taken Lundell. I wanted him at the time. But at the time, I didn't expect Perfetti to be available so .........

But - I think Perfetti has already improved his speed and I expect it to be better this year. I think he needs to learn how to play to protect himself and I expect progress there this year too. So I don't agree with the criticisms that seem to have lead to the gap in the ratings. The durability will remain a concern until it is not. Time will tell.

I guess it depends on how you draft... Jets were entrenched with Maurice and Lundell was far more likely to fit into that system (and Bowness actually)

Regardless the real misses for the Jets were Askarov, Schneider and Mercer... each of them filled more of an organizational need than Lundell or Perfetti

 

[Whileee]

I guess it depends on how you draft... Jets were entrenched with Maurice and Lundell was far more likely to fit into that system (and Bowness actually)

Regardless the real misses for the Jets were Askarov, Schneider and Mercer... each of them filled more of an organizational need than Lundell or Perfetti

I really like Mercer (and Lundell). Goalies are still voodoo, and I think there are more ways to find them than using a high pick. But I think Perfetti is going to turn heads this season, and become a really important player for the Jets.

 

[Whileee]

I thought this was interesting... from HockeyViz.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I really like Mercer (and Lundell). Goalies are still voodoo, and I think there are more ways to find them than using a high pick. But I think Perfetti is going to turn heads this season, and become a really important player for the Jets.

I'd be down for that - I'd still ease him in at 3C though... Iafallo-Perfetti-Apples maybe

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I thought this was interesting... from HockeyViz.
View attachment 740417View attachment 740418View attachment 740419View attachment 740420

You should know better than this... 3 of these players by 130+ NHL games and one of them has half of that... that's too big a gap for realistic comparison. Still promising though.

 

[NA Hockey]

You should know better than this... 3 of these players by 130+ NHL games and one of them has half of that... that's too big a gap for realistic comparison. Still promising though.

It's funny that you say it's too early to use stats that say Perfetti has been better than Lundell, Mercer and Jarvis but it's not too early for you to just plainly state this:

"the real misses for the Jets were Askarov, Schneider and Mercer... each of them filled more of an organizational need than Lundell or Perfetti"

Perfetti is better than all of those players regardless of position, the eye test proves it and so do the stats.

 

[ps241]

I remain thrilled with Perfetti at #10 and wouldn’t change anything at this snapshot in time.

 

[10Ducky10]

I remain thrilled with Perfetti at #10 and wouldn’t change anything at this snapshot in time.

Do you mean you would keep him at wing?

 

[KingBogo]

I remain thrilled with Perfetti at #10 and wouldn’t change anything at this snapshot in time.

100% agree, though the kid needs a season of good health to take the next jump. If that happens then I think we will really know what we have, but like you I continue to be optimistic and happy he fell to us at #10.

 

[surixon]

I remain thrilled with Perfetti at #10 and wouldn’t change anything at this snapshot in time.

Agreed. Really happy with his growth to date. He just needs to have a healthy season and he will blossom into a high end player.

 

[Whileee]

You should know better than this... 3 of these players by 130+ NHL games and one of them has half of that... that's too big a gap for realistic comparison. Still promising though.

Actually, the sG chart / metric is based just on the most recent season, not the entire career.

(P.S. I'd prefer a discussion without the snark)

So, it's 2022/23 results, with the following sample sizes.

 

[LowLefty]

Actually, the sG chart / metric is based just on the most recent season, not the entire career.

(P.S. I'd prefer a discussion without the snark)

So, it's 2022/23 results, with the following sample sizes.

View attachment 740521

All eyes will be on Perfetti and his health this season - I think we all agree that if he can stay healthy, he will be a huge plus - and the numbers support that.
But he has to play as a consistent part of the line up -

 

[ps241]

100% agree, though the kid needs a season of good health to take the next jump. If that happens then I think we will really know what we have, but like you I continue to be optimistic and happy he fell to us at #10.

Agreed. Really happy with his growth to date. He just needs to have a healthy season and he will blossom into a high end player.

I am with both in regards to him needing a healthy season. In my opinion I think he will get older stronger and most importantly he is way too smart to not adapt his game to preserve. I am very concerned with Lucius injury wise but Perfetti will figure it out.

 

[surixon]

All eyes will be on Perfetti and his health this season - I think we all agree that if he can stay healthy, he will be a huge plus - and the numbers support that.
But he has to play as a consistent part of the line up -

The good news is he got what you wanted for him a very extended offseason to train.

Sounds like he was busting his ass the lead up to the playoffs to be ready to play and he's had a full healthy summer to train as well. I expect he's a lot stronger this season.

 

[LowLefty]

The good news is he got what you wanted for him a very extended offseason to train.

Sounds like he was busting his ass the lead up to the playoffs to be ready to play and he's had a full healthy summer to train as well. I expect he's a lot stronger this season.

Hoping you are right -
A healthy, productive Perfetti will take the sting out of a lot of the other issues we are facing.

 

[surixon]

I am with both in regards to him needing a healthy season. In my opinion I think he will get older stronger and most importantly he is way to smart a player to not adapt his game to preserve. I am very concerned with Lucius injury wise but Perfetti will figure it out.

I feel he had already adapted pretty well, he wasn't taking those big hits like he was earlier in the year. I'm still baffled on how he got his second injury as there was no clear play and by his own admission in was something that was lingering and just getting worse. So maybe not even a playing injury.

 

[Whileee]

All eyes will be on Perfetti and his health this season - I think we all agree that if he can stay healthy, he will be a huge plus - and the numbers support that.
But he has to play as a consistent part of the line up -

Yes, I think that if Perfetti has gained some strength and speed in the off-season, and can stay healthy, he's poised for a big step forward. He's perhaps one of the most important variables for the Jets this season and beyond.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Actually, the sG chart / metric is based just on the most recent season, not the entire career.

(P.S. I'd prefer a discussion without the snark)

So, it's 2022/23 results, with the following sample sizes.

View attachment 740521

Hmm - there's no snark intended... I honestly don't think you can compare essentially a half season to a full season... Perfetti was out for the slump (which could be viewed both ways - maybe his presence is more important than I think...)

I'm definitely not arguing that Perfetti isn't a highly talented playmaker - and if he grabs the 2C position and stays healthy then this is a homerun pick - but right now Mercer is the best pick of that mid-range - in terms of health, development, matchups, scoring

I really enjoy your stats but again there's so many nuances... Lundell's shooting % disappeared last season - if he stays at 14% like his rookie year then there isn't even an argument... either way it will be an interesting season coming up

 

[NA Hockey]

Hmm - there's no snark intended... I honestly don't think you can compare essentially a half season to a full season... Perfetti was out for the slump (which could be viewed both ways - maybe his presence is more important than I think...)

I'm definitely not arguing that Perfetti isn't a highly talented playmaker - and if he grabs the 2C position and stays healthy then this is a homerun pick - but right now Mercer is the best pick of that mid-range - in terms of health, development, matchups, scoring

I really enjoy your stats but again there's so many nuances... Lundell's shooting % disappeared last season - if he stays at 14% like his rookie year then there isn't even an argument... either way it will be an interesting season coming up

I think it is more than fair to compare a 51 game sample for Perfetti to a 73 game sample for Lundell from a fancy stats perspective. Beyond that Lundell only had 3 more points total than Perfetti in 22 more games. So fancy stats are better, eye test is better, and raw numbers are almost the same in less games.

To then say "if he stays at 14% like his rookie year then there isn't even an argument.." is disingenuous at best. You can say that for any player, if only they shot a higher % they would have more goals. It's not like he had a decade long track record of a higher shooting %, in fact his history indicates a better chance to shoot below 10% than above 14%.

I would say Mercer has outplayed his draft position significantly and in a redraft would go top 10 for sure, but Perfetti would be moving up in a redraft as well. He has been better than Rossi, Quinn, Holtz, Byfield and probably Laf. Scott Wheeler recently did a redraft article for the Athletic and he had Perfetti going 4th in a redraft as of today.


If stays healthy this year, whether he is 1st/2nd line wing or 2nd line centre, it is going to be a breakout season.

 

[ps241]

Hmm - there's no snark intended... I honestly don't think you can compare essentially a half season to a full season... Perfetti was out for the slump (which could be viewed both ways - maybe his presence is more important than I think...)

I'm definitely not arguing that Perfetti isn't a highly talented playmaker - and if he grabs the 2C position and stays healthy then this is a homerun pick - but right now Mercer is the best pick of that mid-range - in terms of health, development, matchups, scoring

I really enjoy your stats but again there's so many nuances... Lundell's shooting % disappeared last season - if he stays at 14% like his rookie year then there isn't even an argument... either way it will be an interesting season coming up

“You should know better” I thought was a bit snarky or at least directed at the person vs the message.