Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[Mortimer Snerd]

I guess it depends on how you draft... Jets were entrenched with Maurice and Lundell was far more likely to fit into that system (and Bowness actually)

Regardless the real misses for the Jets were Askarov, Schneider and Mercer... each of them filled more of an organizational need than Lundell or Perfetti

If it had been up to me, I would have taken Lundell. I can't say that would have worked out better in the long run but it would look pretty good right now.

The next year, I would have taken Corson Ceulemans instead of Lucius. IMO that too would look better right now.

A big factor in those 2 looking batter so far is injuries. It looks concerning for the 2 guys we took but that would have been pretty tough to predict at the time and it could easily reverse itself from here on.

If the 2 we took manage to start staying healthy, both could be home-runs. We will have to wait and see. Both could be playing top 6 C in 2-3 years.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I thought this was interesting... from HockeyViz.
View attachment 740417View attachment 740418View attachment 740419View attachment 740420

When did shootiness become a word?

 

[Whileee]

Hmm - there's no snark intended... I honestly don't think you can compare essentially a half season to a full season... Perfetti was out for the slump (which could be viewed both ways - maybe his presence is more important than I think...)

I'm definitely not arguing that Perfetti isn't a highly talented playmaker - and if he grabs the 2C position and stays healthy then this is a homerun pick - but right now Mercer is the best pick of that mid-range - in terms of health, development, matchups, scoring

I really enjoy your stats but again there's so many nuances... Lundell's shooting % disappeared last season - if he stays at 14% like his rookie year then there isn't even an argument... either way it will be an interesting season coming up

Those are the available data, and it's not a tiny sample size for Perfetti.

If you want to compare shooting %, then how confident that Mercer will replicate his 17% last season? Perfetti was below 9% (close to Lundell), and certainly seems likely to regress to a higher level (as might Lundell). I have more confidence in Perfett's shooting / finishing than I do Lundell's or Mercer's.

 

[Whileee]

If it had been up to me, I would have taken Lundell. I can't say that would have worked out better in the long run but it would look pretty good right now.

The next year, I would have taken Corson Ceulemans instead of Lucius. IMO that too would look better right now.

A big factor in those 2 looking batter so far is injuries. It looks concerning for the 2 guys we took but that would have been pretty tough to predict at the time and it could easily reverse itself from here on.

If the 2 we took manage to start staying healthy, both could be home-runs. We will have to wait and see. Both could be playing top 6 C in 2-3 years.

I would say that Lundell and Perfetti are pretty close for me right now, all things considered. This season could be a defining point for Perfetti, and I think that if he can stay healthy he'll become a solid top-6 F that will run a good PP. I wouldn't trade Lucius for Ceulemans at this point. Lucius' injury history is concerning, but if he stays healthy his upside potential is much higher than Ceulemans', in my view.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

If it had been up to me, I would have taken Lundell. I can't say that would have worked out better in the long run but it would look pretty good right now.

The next year, I would have taken Corson Ceulemans instead of Lucius. IMO that too would look better right now.

A big factor in those 2 looking batter so far is injuries. It looks concerning for the 2 guys we took but that would have been pretty tough to predict at the time and it could easily reverse itself from here on.

If the 2 we took manage to start staying healthy, both could be home-runs. We will have to wait and see. Both could be playing top 6 C in 2-3 years.

I often check out past posts when people make claims of who they preferred yesterday vs. today.

No surprise @Mortimer Snerd passes the test! Just liked some old posts of your from the Pandemic Draft year, confirming you were very high on Lundell.

On a separate note those threads are tough reads, much of which were more COVID related than hockey related.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would say that Lundell and Perfetti are pretty close for me right now, all things considered. This season could be a defining point for Perfetti, and I think that if he can stay healthy he'll become a solid top-6 F that will run a good PP. I wouldn't trade Lucius for Ceulemans at this point. Lucius' injury history is concerning, but if he stays healthy his upside potential is much higher than Ceulemans', in my view.

So much depends on future health for both Perfetti and Lucius.

I agree that a healthy Lucius has higher upside but if you consider the depth of Jets need at the positions, I still take Ceulemans. I'd be surprised if CBJ would trade them one-for-one right now.

The progress of Salomonsson is reducing the urgency for a RHD a bit but it looks like there will easily be openings for 3 starting RHD very soon. DeMelo is a pending UFA and both Pionk and Schmidt are only 1 more year away. That is without any reference to the shortcomings our current RD may have.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I often check out past posts when people make claims of who they preferred yesterday vs. today.

No surprise @Mortimer Snerd passes the test! Just liked some old posts of your from the Pandemic Draft year, confirming you were very high on Lundell.

On a separate note those threads are tough reads, much of which were more COVID related than hockey related.

I have some other preferences in my history that I don't refer to very often. Some were horrible. In 16, instead of the trade-up, I wanted Lucas Johansen and another Dman. Not sure now who the second one was. Might have been Kale Clague or Filip Hronek. In fairness to myself, Johansen's career has been derailed by injury but it still would have been a bigger bust than Stanley. Hronek would have been OK though but I really can't remember who my second one was.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Those are the available data, and it's not a tiny sample size for Perfetti.

If you want to compare shooting %, then how confident that Mercer will replicate his 17% last season? Perfetti was below 9% (close to Lundell), and certainly seems likely to regress to a higher level (as might Lundell). I have more confidence in Perfett's shooting / finishing than I do Lundell's or Mercer's.

Mercer's first season was 11% and last season 16% - he will level off around 12-13% I'd think which is very solid...

You have blinders on, I'm sorry. Mercer comes off a season where he drastically increases his shooting percentage jumps from 11-16... but you have more confidence in Perfetti's two years at 8-9% shooting... this just makes no sense at all.

Lundell went from 14% in his first year to 8% last year... why would you think he doesn't regress higher as well? I mean it seems fairly clear Lundell was playing injured last year.

There's a bit of a trend to ignore nuance and blindly cite stats that work towards your argument.

If Perfetti was not a Jet, you would not be making these claims... that's all.

 

[ffh]

Mercer's first season was 11% and last season 16% - he will level off around 12-13% I'd think which is very solid...

You have blinders on, I'm sorry. Mercer comes off a season where he drastically increases his shooting percentage jumps from 11-16... but you have more confidence in Perfetti's two years at 8-9% shooting... this just makes no sense at all.

Lundell went from 14% in his first year to 8% last year... why would you think he doesn't regress higher as well? I mean it seems fairly clear Lundell was playing injured last year.

There's a bit of a trend to ignore nuance and blindly cite stats that work towards your argument.

If Perfetti was not a Jet, you would not be making these claims... that's all.

knowing what we know these last 2 years about these players i'm sure if the jets drafted again the would still pick perfetti over these other two. and they wouldnt really have to think about it that hard.

 

[Whileee]

Mercer's first season was 11% and last season 16% - he will level off around 12-13% I'd think which is very solid...

You have blinders on, I'm sorry. Mercer comes off a season where he drastically increases his shooting percentage jumps from 11-16... but you have more confidence in Perfetti's two years at 8-9% shooting... this just makes no sense at all.

Lundell went from 14% in his first year to 8% last year... why would you think he doesn't regress higher as well? I mean it seems fairly clear Lundell was playing injured last year.

There's a bit of a trend to ignore nuance and blindly cite stats that work towards your argument.

If Perfetti was not a Jet, you would not be making these claims... that's all.

As you noted, Perfetti has a small sample size. But at the junior and AHL level, Perfetti was an outstanding finisher (better than Mercer).

I didn't claim Lundell wouldn't increase again, but it's my view that Perfetti is likely not an 8-9% shooter, either.

I don't generate the stats, and I offered them without comment other than that I found them "interesting". I included summaries for 4 young players that have recently been discussed in this forum.

You and others are free to form your own views about the data, but if you want to continue with the ad hominem discourse ("blinders"? "blindly"?), I'll bow out of discussions with you. It's entirely unnecessary.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

As you noted, Perfetti has a small sample size. But at the junior and AHL level, Perfetti was an outstanding finisher (better than Mercer).

I didn't claim Lundell wouldn't increase again, but it's my view that Perfetti is likely not an 8-9% shooter, either.

I don't generate the stats, and I offered them without comment other than that I found them "interesting". I included summaries for 4 young players that have recently been discussed in this forum.

You and others are free to form your own views about the data, but if you want to continue with the ad hominem discourse ("blinders"? "blindly"?), I'll bow out of discussions with you. It's entirely unnecessary.

Well that's a shame - I suppose I should just agree with you that Perfetti is the best pick the Jets could have made and that his current shooting percentage is an anomaly even though the statistics don't indicate that - because he was better than Mercer in Junior....

You just claimed that you'd rather have Perfetti's finishing/shooting over Mercer and Lundell except your own stats don't back it up - and then walk away from debate saying people don't listen to the statistics...

 

[enuffidiotsalready]

called out for ad hominem discourse, Jesus promptly pivoted to pandering.

"blessed are the big noses!"

9 days to training camp guys. some of you need a rest btw

 

[Whileee]

Well that's a shame - I suppose I should just agree with you that Perfetti is the best pick the Jets could have made and that his current shooting percentage is an anomaly even though the statistics don't indicate that - because he was better than Mercer in Junior....

You just claimed that you'd rather have Perfetti's finishing/shooting over Mercer and Lundell except your own stats don't back it up - and then walk away from debate saying people don't listen to the statistics...

I don't walk away from respectful discussions, but if you want to use invective, count me out.

Bye.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I don't walk away from respectful discussions, but if you want to use invective, count me out.

Bye.

I'd really like to hear the tone you're reading my posts in... if you think that I've been somehow abusive. If your skin is that thin, maybe its for the best. Strange days indeed.

I suspect things will get even more divided on this board the closer we get to the point of no return aka TD... I can't imagine what happens if Perfetti gets injured...

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I'd really like to hear the tone you're reading my posts in... if you think that I've been somehow abusive.

Maybe something like this.



p.s. NSFW, keep the volume low.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Maybe something like this.



p.s. NSFW, keep the volume low.

Ah well... then that would be the correct tone.

 

[DRW204]

Lundell and Perfetti were picked 2 spots from one another w/ a goalie in between.

Lundell had the best of the four years for the players in his first season, but perfetti was better this year prior to getting hurt.

Maybe, just maaaaybe.... Over the course of their 10 year+ nhl careers some years lundell is better, and others Perfetti is. Idk guys seems possible to me!

“You should know better” I thought was a bit snarky or at least directed at the person vs the message.

it's not like the person on the other end is short of snark or pompous/arrogant attitude. can dish it, can't take it i guess.

 

[DRW204]

When did shootiness become a word?

around the same time the goal was to win the xStanley Cup and now the sStanley Cup

but the difference of 9% sh% vs 12% would've been 2-3 goals this year for Perfetti. this is seriously what people are arguing over.

i think he does need to improve his shot, and overall goal-scoring which may come in time. however for next year he should have a good complement of fwds he is playing with. i think a line w/ him, connor and vilardi could do v well. given it's w/ KC (high-volume shooter+strong finisher), Vilardi (strong finisher) i am not expecting a huge uptick in SOG rate from Perfetti (more minutes will inherently lead to more SOGs but perhaps on a per-60 basis it's not a huge difference compared to now ).

2 v good finishers w/ perfetti who has so far showcased as a good play maker. last year - 23 pts on 29 GF (79%) at 5v5 puts him only behind Ehlers on the team for rate, it is a bit driven by secondary-assists (ie: if you did % of primary points he's behind 8 other Fwds) but i don't see it as a huge deal as he gains more experience and hopefully becomes a real driver of offense.

he is the next core piece of this team. whether it be at C or Wing, i don't care and it's TBD. evidently would love to have him break-out at C however it's not like the Jets can't use great players at both positions for the future.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

around the same time the goal was to win the xStanley Cup and now the sStanley Cup

but the difference of 9% sh% vs 12% would've been 2-3 goals this year for Perfetti. this is seriously what people are arguing over.

You obviously missed the conversation where Lee Stempiak's three extra goals would have resulted in a long-term Jets dynasty.

#stempstrong

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Size matters….. zJets should have chosen Lundel

 

[Bob E]

I’m hoping to see more of Cole’s elite hockey sense this year.

He looks big enough, fast enough, and gritty enough to take the puck to the net and score on this play.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Lundell and Perfetti were picked 2 spots from one another w/ a goalie in between.

Lundell had the best of the four years for the players in his first season, but perfetti was better this year prior to getting hurt.

Maybe, just maaaaybe.... Over the course of their 10 year+ nhl careers some years lundell is better, and others Perfetti is. Idk guys seems possible to me!


it's not like the person on the other end is short of snark or pompous/arrogant attitude. can dish it, can't take it i guess.

I hope they both have stellar careers. Right now I'm concerned with Perfetti's durability. Hope he puts that to rest this season but that could be the difference maker.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I hope they both have stellar careers. Right now I'm concerned with Perfetti's durability. Hope he puts that to rest this season but that could be the difference maker.

It really does highlight the disconnect between our scouting and our coaching though... Maurice and now Bowness have both shown that when its late in a game they will sit the smaller finesse guys

 

[Bob E]

It really does highlight the disconnect between our scouting and our coaching though... Maurice and now Bowness have both shown that when its late in a game they will sit the smaller finesse guys

That’s true. But they have also drafted Barlow and McGroarty recently who they likely will have out late in games.

 

[NA Hockey]

It really does highlight the disconnect between our scouting and our coaching though... Maurice and now Bowness have both shown that when its late in a game they will sit the smaller finesse guys

Both coaches played KFC in the late part of tight games.

Perfetti is hardly the first 19/20 year old to miss a few shifts late in a tight game. Coaches rarely trust rookies. KFC and Scheif didn't play in those situations at the same age, the same as many players through out the league.

I believe that Perfetti with his off the charts IQ and defensive awareness will earn more and more trust over the coming year.