Confirmed Trade: [COL/ARI] Darcy Kuemper ($1M ret.) for Connor Timmins, '22 1st, and '24 cond. 3rd

[SeanMoneyHands]

Kuemper will have a solid year with the Avs. Then I bet Sakic will sign him to a sweetheart 3 or 4 year deal before the TDL.

 

[feffan]

People get blinded by the 1st shining in there. But a late 1st has more in common with an earlie 3rd than an top 10 pick in an average draft. So think Sakic assessed good value as usual. They are in win now mode. A 25-30 draft pick won't help them now or during this window, even if it stays open 5 years.

 

[Belgican]

Kuemper will have a solid year with the Avs. Then I bet Sakic will sign him to a sweetheart 3 or 4 year deal before the TDL.

Yeah don’t wait, we all know Kuemper’s value, sign him now !

 

[BadgerBruce]

Timmins has played 33 regular season and 12 playoff games. That’s it. He’s still looking for his first goal. This is not an established NHL defenceman. He suffered a horrific head injury a few years ago and because of this a lot of folks root for him. I do. But liking the kid is no substitute for evaluating him. To me, his upside is a #5 defenceman on a good team. Downside? One more nasty hit in the head and he’s done.

As for the 2022 first rounder, this is going to be a very late pick with low odds of becoming an NHL regular.

The Avs receive an excellent regular season goalie who is rarely healthy enough to play 30 games per season (twice he’s broken this very modest threshold) and has minimal playoff experience (14 starts in 9 years, a 7-6 record). To me, when we’re dealing with 30+ year old goalies, the best predictor of future performance is past performance. Not the ONLY predictor, but the most reliable. It’s obvious what the Avs hope to get out of Kuemper, but this acquisition is a lottery ticket, and the odds of winning are about the same as Nazem Kadri making it through a playoff year without getting suspended. History rarely lies to us.

This trade is a wash.

 

[rt]

People get blinded by the 1st shining in there. But a late 1st has more in common with an earlie 3rd than an top 10 pick in an average draft. So think Sakic assessed good value as usual. They are in win now mode. A 25-30 draft pick won't help them now or during this window, even if it stays open 5 years.

Did you just say 30 is closer to 75 than it is to 10?

 

[rt]

Timmins has played 33 regular season and 12 playoff games. That’s it. He’s still looking for his first goal. This is not an established NHL defenceman. He suffered a horrific head injury a few years ago and because of this a lot of folks root for him. I do. But liking the kid is no substitute for evaluating him. To me, his upside is a #5 defenceman on a good team. Downside? One more nasty hit in the head and he’s done.

As for the 2022 first rounder, this is going to be a very late pick with low odds of becoming an NHL regular.

The Avs receive an excellent regular season goalie who is rarely healthy enough to play 30 games per season (twice he’s broken this very modest threshold) and has minimal playoff experience (14 starts in 9 years, a 7-6 record). To me, when we’re dealing with 30+ year old goalies, the best predictor of future performance is past performance. Not the ONLY predictor, but the most reliable. It’s obvious what the Avs hope to get out of Kuemper, but this acquisition is a lottery ticket, and the odds of winning are about the same as Nazem Kadri making it through a playoff year without getting suspended. History rarely lies to us.

This trade is a wash.

I don’t disagree with any of this. But I think people are reacting to the acquisition price solely relative to other goalie trades. It’s not that this is a tremendous return in a vacuum. Just that it’s bigger than we usually see in goalie deals specifically. That’s all.

 

[redandyellowcametobe]

Kuemper has a way more extensive injury history than Grubauer for once. And then again I don't necessarily disagree that going short term with your goalies is the right play. But its clearly not the right play if it costs you a 1st + Timmins for 1 year of a really good (but injury prone) goalie that you probably don't want to pay either when you could just have given your somewhat proven starter 500k extra over 6 years and be done with it. You will have to get a top end goalie next year as well and you can't afford to make a deal like this again a year from now. So why not go longterm with the guy you had in the first place and keep all your assets?

And I am not a huge Grubauer fan and believe that Kuemper is a better goalie than him. But I also don't think the Avs are very likely to win a cup next season (no team is and if you are picking favorites, its always Tampa) so making this trade just is a very bad move by a GM having a horrible offseason so far. Re-Signing Landy has been his best move and that contract will be rather ugly a few years down the road and probably should have been signed a longtime ago if he was willing to pay him that much anyways in the end.

Winning a cup makes every horrible move worth it. But odds are the Avs won't (and the Grubauer/Kuemper exchange is only marginally positive in regard to their chances) and this will look really ugly a year from now.

He better get Kuemper signed to a very reasonable extension in the near future after this ( even though I don't think Darcy would agree to it)..

Yeah. Darcy would be foolish to take a contract prior to the season. Gru had a Vezina caliber season behind that defense and cashed in. Kuemper will likely do the the same if healthy.

I think what’s lost in a lot of this, is prior to this season people were questioning Gru’s health as well. Kuemper has played three less games than Grubauer over the last three seasons. Yes, partially bc Grubauer and Franky shared a lot of the role two years ago. There were points in that season Gru was not the sure fire number one. Yes, he had a nice season, yes Franky is coming off surgery but Gru was not this end all be all prior to this season. It’s extremely risky, there’s no doubt but I’m not convinced giving Grubauer a 6 year deal is the answer either.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Arizona's offseason is a pretty spectacular way to kick off a legit rebuild. They've kinda been eternally rebuilding, but at least now they're in a position to do it in the right way.

7 picks in the first 2 rounds of the very promising 2022 draft. Crazy.

There is no skill involved in doing a scorched earth rebuild. I have trouble giving gms who rebuild the tim Murray method any credit. Acquiring picks for good players is the easy part.

 

[General Disarray]

Gotta give props to Arizona GM. They knew they were in no rush to trade Kuemper so held out and let the desperate teams bid. It probably came down to Avs vs Oilers in the end after others backed away.

 

[Curufinwe]

Arizona will be a cup contender within three years. Going to be stacked.

The Cap space Cup isn’t a real Cup.

 

[yogibear]

Sakic has overpaid but what if hell break lose in Colorado next year like it did in San Jose.
I’m would love it if that first round pick becomes the first overall in 2022.

 

[KingsOfThe805]

Im sure Sakic will sign Kemper for around 5.9 per year.

 

[returnofthemack29]

Sakic has overpaid but what if hell break lose in Colorado next year like it did in San Jose.
I’m would love it if that first round pick becomes the first overall in 2022.

It’s lottery protected.

 

[returnofthemack29]

Grit on grit

 

[Foppberg]

There is no skill involved in doing a scorched earth rebuild. I have trouble giving gms who rebuild the tim Murray method any credit. Acquiring picks for good players is the easy part.

Yup.. Easy to tank for picks, hard to go from rebuild to legit team. Guys get used to losing, so you have to also rebuild the culture.

 

[AslanRH]

I mean, besides the Fleury $7m dump
Vanacek returned a late 2nd
a promising prospect returned a 3rd
a recent 7th round prospect G + 1st got Reinhart
Nedeljkovic returned essentially a 3rd

Not sure a late 1st and a maybe 2nd round valued defenseman is really such an overpay
If the Avs win the cup, no one will remember the 2024 3rd

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Oof a conditional 3rd as well?

 

[GetFocht]

The Cap space Cup isn’t a real Cup.

Lmao. People really think that a franchise becomes a cup contender after 1 draft hub?

Arizona will be rebuilding for a minimum of 5 years before they hit playoffs.

 

[Nihiliste]

That's the thing - and I agree with this 100%. When you're ready to make the final push, who gives a f*** about what you pay in picks and prospects. Picks and prospects don't get their names engraved on Lord Stanley.

I still think it was a *curious* decision, and I don't necessarily love their offseason, but I don't think this changes their status as a legit Cup contender one bit.

Kuemper isn’t going to stay healthy. Should have just paid Gru

 

[The Macho King]

Kuemper isn’t going to stay healthy. Should have just paid Gru

That's the biggest part of the risk. If he goes down they're going to have to spend more assets to fix that hole in net. And if he goes down after the TDL... yikers.

 

[Avaholic29]

Kuemper isn’t going to stay healthy. Should have just paid Gru

Kuemper has started more than games than grubauer in the last 3 seasons combined.

grubauer left for term, a full no move clause in the front half and a ten team no trade in the back half. I’m glad the avs stayed away from that.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Timmins isn't good and that pick could be #32.

Depends on how Kempers health.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Kuemper isn’t going to stay healthy. Should have just paid Gru

If Kuemper's workload is managed correctly he will stay healthier. Tocchet kept running Kuemper out there for long stretches and when it was clear he was gassed, he didn't pull him and then he would get injured. His health issues were more mismanagement than anything else.

Raanta gets hurt sleeping or walking his dog, but you have a quality backup where you won't have to ride Kuemper for long stretches.

 

[Jerkbait]

People get blinded by the 1st shining in there. But a late 1st has more in common with an earlie 3rd than an top 10 pick in an average draft. So think Sakic assessed good value as usual. They are in win now mode. A 25-30 draft pick won't help them now or during this window, even if it stays open 5 years.

Absolutely agree. Logical and common sense. The avs are still the favorite in the west.

 

[Muffin]

Oof a conditional 3rd as well?

Did you even look at the conditions?