Rumor: Chychrun Megathread (Asking price has been met per Sportsnet)

[Raymones]

Thanks for insightful and respectful replies. I agree with you, I don't think it would move the needle for BA at all, and a 2024 1st way too far down the road to be valuable. I wouldn't be surprised if Zito offered both the 2023 and 2024 firsts, though. He's got the pieces he need to go for it if he gets Chychrun.

Would you do Ghost for Boston, NYR or Florida 2023 1st?

I think Zito is at least offering another pick (likely a future 2nd) to “compensate” that they don’t have a 22 1st and can only offer a 23 1st rounder. I would jot be remotely surprised if 2 x 1sts r on the table given that these picks are both likely late first rounders.

Of course GMs try with lesser offers as much as possible. But that would be poor overall value. Denisenko and Ludvig wouldn't be the tops on the depth chart here. Those firsts are late and years off. It just does nothing.

Late firsts in particular are overvalued on HF.

There is a ZERO percent chance that you acquire Chychrun without moving one if Lundell or Knight. And the chances of moving Lundell are also 0% so that means Knight is coming to Arizona if Chychrun is going to Florida.

As for the 2x 1sts, no I don’t think so. The Panthers don’t even have a 1st this year. I don’t see Arizona being interested in a 1st round pick that’s 30 months away, as a key piece of a deposit for Chychrun. That’s just a little too goofy, honesty. That’s a 14 year old. They aren’t trading Chychrun for a 14 year old.

If I’m being 100% honest, I’d rate Florida’s top three prospects as 1. Samoskevich 2. Knight and 3. Denisenko. I’d say the 2023 1st is right around the value of Denisenko. So I’d say those are the top four of the “available assets” (meaning not Lundell).

That being said, I don’t personally think very highly of those assets. I simply don’t like Florida’s prospect pool. Even if we got ALL FOUR of those assets for Chychrun, I personally wouldn’t be happy. I would rather just keep Chychrun than trade him for Knight, Samoskevich, Denisenko and Florida’s 2023 1st.

Please don’t confuse that with me saying Florida would or should offer that or more than that. They would never offer that, let alone more. I would never expect them to. I just personally don’t like Florida’s prospects. I wouldn’t personally trade Chychrun for them.

 

[Schemp]

The only way the ducks deal McTavish for Chychrun at the draft is if they win the Shane Wright lottery, and Lindholm is leaving.

I don’t think waiting for the draft makes sense for us. Draft pick value is at a premium at the draft, while player value is at a premium at the TDL.

Also, a team that acquired Chychrun now gets FOUR playoff runs with him on his cheap contract. If they wait for the draft, that reduced the number of playoff runs to three. That matters and will impact his value.

I still think he gets traded at the draft, if he gets traded at all. I just don't see any team paying what it would take at the moment. At the draft, GMBA could go crazy with targeting players with the tank pick, Chychrun, and whom ever else.
Asking for McTavish is unrelated to my prediction, just wishful thinking.

 

[Heldig]

@rt
IF Boston is in the mix, should the Coyotes be asking for Beecher? A bigger, faster Hayton. DeBrusk is a cap dump IMO.

 

[Raymones]

@Raymones

I did this for Boston…

“Lysell = pick 25 (+/- 5)
BOS 1st = pick 27 (+/-5)
Swayman = pick 32 (+/- 5)
DeBrusk = pick 80 (+/- 5)

^ so even given my VERY low estimation of that package, it seems to be “fair”-ish when looked at “on-paper”, even by a huge skeptic.”

But it holds about true for the Florida picks.

I like Samoskevich a little less than Lysell. I think Samoskevich has a lower ceiling but a better chance of hitting it. I think of them as fairy similar. But I value Samoskevich slightly less than Lysell.

I value Knight slightly less than Swayman, too. I think both are huge gambles. I like Swayman’s odds a little more than Knight’s. Similar ceilings, but I like Swayman’s chances a bit more. I like Swayman slightly better.

I don’t like DeBrusk or Tippett very much. They’re about tied to me, value-wise. Which is to say I don’t value either much at all. DeBrusk is more expensive but he’s at least done more in the NHL. I know Tippett is younger but I don’t like his upside or his chances much. I think DeBrusk has a small chance of rebounding here. But more likely we just to t even qualify him. Neither player moves the needle for me. They’re like throwing in a 3rd rounder. Doesn’t do anything for me.

Boston’s pick is a year earlier. So I like it more. But I don’t really care much either way. We already have a bunch of picks this year. So I’m indifferent on that.

I know almost nothing about Samoskevich or Lysell, so I won't pretend to. I did watch a lot of Panthers games though the last couple of years (since I've been following Strålman around) and I agree about Tippett. He's got descent tools but lack in hockey sense, or hockey IQ or whatever you call it, IMO. I see no value in Debrusk for the Coyotes. With that salary, and outrageus QO, Bruins better pay BA for taking him on.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

The only way the ducks deal McTavish for Chychrun at the draft is if they win the Shane Wright lottery, and Lindholm is leaving.

I don’t think waiting for the draft makes sense for us. Draft pick value is at a premium at the draft, while player value is at a premium at the TDL.

Also, a team that acquired Chychrun now gets FOUR playoff runs with him on his cheap contract. If they wait for the draft, that reduced the number of playoff runs to three. That matters and will impact his value.

For what it’s worth I don’t think Anaheim was willing to put mctavish up for eichel…. We prob won’t consider moving him.


I like chychrun a lot, and would love to add him…. But idk that we’d be able to compete with a lot of the other teams offers.
I’d guess something like

tracey/perreault/comtois /pastujov (zona choice)
Zellweger
1st
Steel

Which prob doesn’t get us chychrun…. But idk that we’d offer the pieces that would lock us in. I feel like kings make the most sense tbh

 

[hbk]

Thanks for insightful and respectful replies. I agree with you, I don't think it would move the needle for BA at all, and a 2024 1st way too far down the road to be valuable. I wouldn't be surprised if Zito offered both the 2023 and 2024 firsts, though. He's got the pieces he need to go for it if he gets Chychrun.

Would you do Ghost for Boston, NYR or Florida 2023 1st?

Ask us next year about Ghost. Doesn’t appear he will be moved this year.

 

[rt]

@rt
IF Boston is in the mix, should the Coyotes be asking for Beecher? A bigger, faster Hayton. DeBrusk is a cap dump IMO.

Beecher has never stood out at any level I’ve seen. He’s like Hayton in his complete invisibility to me. Nondescript, generic hockey player like Hayton, IMO. Sometimes that’s okay and useful. I’m not a good enough scout to tell which is which. I can only pick out players that do thanks I like often enough for me to like them. That’s the extent of it. Haha.

 

[XX]

I like chychrun a lot, and would love to add him…. But idk that we’d be able to compete with a lot of the other teams offers.
I’d guess something like

tracey/perreault/comtois /pastujov (zona choice)
Zellweger
1st
Steel

Comtois
Zellweger
Perreault
1st

Palatable to me.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Comtois
Zellweger
Perreault
1st

Palatable to me.

Dont have an objection to that... seems like a fair trade (with out including mctavish)

 

[rt]

Comtois
Zellweger
Perreault
1st

Palatable to me.

I could live with that, honestly.

Im imagining picking Nemec with our pick, and Gauthier with the Ducks pick. Get a top RD prospect and a top power C prospect to go with Zellweger (LD) and Perreault (RW).

 

[XX]

I could leave with that, honestly.

Im imagining picking Nemec with our pick, and Gauthier with the Ducks pick. Get a top RD prospect and a top power C prospect to go with Zellweger (LD) and Perreault (RW).

Zellweger is having a sneaky good D+1 and was drafted young. Perreault I figure is a safe bet to be at least a replacement level 2RW, if not better. Pick is in the teens and Comtois already has a prorated 20-20 season under his belt. I really like his odds with Tourigny. Definitely a BA type player in disposition.

No single piece is amazing but that makes it more realistic than holding out hope for a Lundell level player.

They also have Dostal...

 

[rt]

Zellweger is having a sneaky good D+1 and was drafted young. Perreault I figure is a safe bet to be at least a replacement level 2RW, if not better. Pick is in the teens and Comtois already has a prorated 20-20 season under his belt. I really like his odds with Tourigny. Definitely a BA type player in disposition.

No single piece is amazing but that makes it more realistic than holding out hope for a Lundell level player.

They also have Dostal...

Perreault is a little one dimensional and has issues with being inconsistent/lazy sometimes. But he’s got a heckuva shot and some swagger. Plus, he’s got the pedigree. I see a poor man’s Phil Kessel (basically Kessel minus the vision and passing) Which is still pretty good.

The idea of having two super dynamic offensive dynamo types in the system (Zellweger & Nemec) to go with our two super solid, boring, smart top D prospects (Moser & Soderstrom) is really quite appealing.

But that 1st is super appealing. This draft is all over the place and the odds of getting a kid the scouting team has ranked like 9th or 10th with that Ducks pick in the mid-late-teens is quite good, I think.

Keller-XXX-Guenther
Comtois-XXX-Perreault
Crouse-XXX-Josh Doan

J.J. Moser-Nemec
Zellweger-Soderstrom

In a PERFECT world..


Keller-Fantilli-Guenther
Comtois-Gauthier-Perreault
Crouse-Hayton-Josh Doan

J.J. Moser-Nemec
Zellweger-Soderstrom
Mateychuk-Ty Nelson

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Perreault is a little one dimensional and has issues with being inconsistent/lazy sometimes. But he’s got a heckuva shot and some swagger. Plus, he’s got the pedigree. I see a poor man’s Phil Kessel (basically Kessel minus the vision and passing) Which is still pretty good.

The idea of having two super dynamic offensive dynamo types in the system (Zellweger & Nemec) to go with our two super solid, boring, smart top D prospects (Moser & Soderstrom) is really quite appealing.

But that 1st is super appealing. This draft is all over the place and the odds of getting a kid the scouting team has ranked like 9th or 10th with that Ducks pick in the mid-late-teens is quite good, I think.

Keller-XXX-Guenther
Comtois-XXX-Perreault
Crouse-XXX-Josh Doan

J.J. Moser-Nemec
Zellweger-Soderstrom

In a PERFECT world..


Keller-Fantilli-Guenther
Comtois-Gauthier-Perreault
Crouse-Hayton-Josh Doan

J.J. Moser-Nemec
Zellweger-Soderstrom
Mateychuk-Ty Nelson

For what its worth i think his laziness/inconsistent and 1 dimensional player (shooter) was more of a predraft thing.

He has a ridiculous shot, i still have a hard time tracking this shot


But he has shown a lot more play making ability in the AHL the last couple seasons... 35 points in 52 games at AHL, but hes in a unique situation where he got to play in the AHL as a 18/19 year old where normally hed be in Jrs still.

Taking out Zegras/Drysdale.... id say Perreault and Zellweger are #2 and #3 in our prospect pool (tho dostal could be argued in 1 of those spots too). Tracey has 25 in 31... hes been quietly/sneakily having a really big turn around season compared to his 19 yo AHL time 0 in 12.

 

[rt]

For what its worth i think his laziness/inconsistent and 1 dimensional player (shooter) was more of a predraft thing.

He has a ridiculous shot, i still have a hard time tracking this shot


But he has shown a lot more play making ability in the AHL the last couple seasons... 35 points in 52 games at AHL, but hes in a unique situation where he got to play in the AHL as a 18/19 year old where normally hed be in Jrs still.

Taking out Zegras/Drysdale.... id say Perreault and Zellweger are #2 and #3 in our prospect pool (tho dostal could be argued in 1 of those spots too). Tracey has 25 in 31... hes been quietly/sneakily having a really big turn around season compared to his 19 yo AHL time 0 in 12.

Perrault isn’t my favorite but he could turn out to be a good one. He’s a solid dart throw. I like Zellweger a lot, but he’s got an uphill battle, too, given his size and the position he plays. Comtois is obviously a head-scratcher. Maybe a change of scenery and social-set will do the trick. Again, a rebound isn’t a sure thing. the top asset for me is the 1st.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Perrault isn’t my favorite but he could turn out to be a good one. He’s a solid dart throw. I like Zellweger a lot, but he’s got an uphill battle, too, given his size and the position he plays. Comtois is obviously a head-scratcher. Maybe a change of scenery and social-set will do the trick. Again, a rebound isn’t a sure thing. the top asset for me is the 1st.

Ya Zellweger has a ton of upside... Hell def need to fill out his frame a bit, that being said hell still be 18 for another 8 months. Top notch skater tho, i remember watching the rookie camps for Anaheim... and i felt like Zellwegers skating stood out over Drsydale(who is a fantastic skater) Hoping he can become a Sam Girard type.

Idk what happened to comtois, hes looked better since the surgery, if he can stick around top 6 winger itll still be a solid pick at 50.... He has looked good with Zegras, but Milano took his spot... not sure why the team didnt start him off next to zegras... but there were rumors he showed up to camp out of shape.

 

[rt]

Ya Zellweger has a ton of upside... Hell def need to fill out his frame a bit, that being said hell still be 18 for another 8 months. Top notch skater tho, i remember watching the rookie camps for Anaheim... and i felt like Zellwegers skating stood out over Drsydale(who is a fantastic skater) Hoping he can become a Sam Girard type.

Idk what happened to comtois, hes looked better since the surgery, if he can stick around top 6 winger itll still be a solid pick at 50.... He has looked good with Zegras, but Milano took his spot... not sure why the team didnt start him off next to zegras... but there were rumors he showed up to camp out of shape.

I’ve seen rumors about Comtois. Gossipy stuff I won’t repeat. Could be a new friend group would be good.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I’ve seen rumors about Comtois. Gossipy stuff I won’t repeat. Could be a new friend group would be good.

Pretty sure i have an idea what you are talking about

 

[hbk]

I’ve seen rumors about Comtois. Gossipy stuff I won’t repeat. Could be a new friend group would be good.

If its another Ribeiro situation i dont want him period.

 

[Perratrooper]

This I would likely do. I don’t like Kaut at all, though. Is there a different piece you rate about the same or even a little less that you’d sub.

Beaucage?

 

[rt]

Beaucage?

Most would probably disagree with me because this kid can’t skate, but I’d probably rather gamble on him.

 

[rt]

If its another Ribeiro situation i dont want him period.

He’s young. It’s just rumors.

 

[Jakey53]

I'm not seeing this happening. Not even close. Would you, as a GM give up a 1st round pick, top prospect and another solid player for Chychrun who's not doing a great job selling himself with his 8 points in 31 games and injury prone? If he gets traded it will be a very disappointing return and the asking price was never what we thought it was. Armstrong is tough and frugal and I'm guessing he never was for sale in the first place. Maybe other GM's asked about him and when they found out the price they passed.

A couple of guys on a sports show or whatever it was said Chych could be traded and BA was looking for a Eichel type deal or return, which led to people proposing deals that included three or four pieces. Then some fans on this board get all excited thinking Chych was worth all that and then some. We have no idea what BA is/was asking. If we are being honest, Chych is not worth what was talked or rumored about, but if BA gets that he will drive Chych to the airport himself. Chych is good, young and on a good deal for a few more years, but he is not elite. Having said that, it just takes one GM who thinks Chych could be the last piece needed for a deep SC run. Hear that Florida.

 

[hbk]

A couple of guys on a sports show or whatever it was said Chych could be traded and BA was looking for a Eichel type deal or return, which led to people proposing deals that included three or four pieces. Then some fans on this board get all excited thinking Chych was worth all that and then some. We have no idea what BA is/was asking. If we are being honest, Chych is not worth what was talked or rumored about, but if BA gets that he will drive Chych to the airport himself. Chych is good, young and on a good deal for a few more years, but he is not elite. Having said that, it just takes one GM who thinks Chych could be the last piece needed for a deep SC run. Hear that Florida.

Keumper also wasn’t worth a 1st let alone a 1st and a top prospect

Dvorak wasn’t worth a 1st and he went for a 1st and a 2nd.

i think BA knows what he’s doing.

there will be a new report in 10 mins and everyone will be in a tizzy on the potential return.

 

[Jakey53]

Keumper also wasn’t worth a 1st let alone a 1st and a top prospect

Dvorak wasn’t worth a 1st and he went for a 1st and a 2nd.

i think BA knows what he’s doing.

there will be a new report in 10 mins and everyone will be in a tizzy on the potential return.

Many expected a first for Kuemper and DVO. In fact most weren't happy that the 1st was protected in that DVO deal. Kuemper wanted out so that return was good. We won't know who won the DVO trade for years, but I think he would still look good in a Yote's uniform. BA may know what he doing, but some of these trade proposals are out there in space. IF BA gets what posters are suggesting he should be name GM of the year. IF Chych is traded, I think he will bring more than his value, but not what has been discussed.

 

[hbk]

Many expected a first for Kuemper and DVO. In fact most weren't happy that the 1st was protected in that DVO deal. Kuemper wanted out so that return was good. We won't know who won the DVO trade for years, but I think he would still look good in a Yote's uniform. BA may know what he doing, but some of these trade proposals are out there in space. IF BA gets what posters are suggesting he should be name GM of the year. IF Chych is traded, I think he will bring more than his value, but not what has been discussed.

Fan made up deals not realistic? You don’t say. How rare on this particular platform.

care to speculate yet on a potential return?