It's hard to say but I could see around 20. But I also see some 18 and 19 year old's leaving.
How many players debate whether they are going the CHL or NCAA route before signing in the CHL. Many sign in the CHL because the option of playing Tier 2 Jr. A for two seasons doesn't appeal to them. Now those players can sign in the CHL and then bolt to the NCAA at 18 or 19. Best of both worlds for them.
The NCAA has no draft. It's essentially a free for all when it comes to recruiting. Do you not think these schools will hire additional scouts who will scout OHL players and make a pitch for them to come to their school?
Players just don’t join the CHL because they don’t want to play tier 2 junior for a few years. The education package has benefits.
1) you’re not committed to a particular school Not a lot of 16, 17 or 18 olds know what they want to do for the rest of their lives. If I commit to Boston University that’s great but what major am I taking? What if they have no programs that suit my interest or skills? A university degree is not a guaranteed ticket for success. Going to school for four years and getting a degree that has no value to you is not a good use of your education.
2) the CHL education can be used for anything. So let’s say besides being a hockey player the other career would be a trade such as electrician, plumber or auto mechanic. Your OHL education package can be used at trade schools or public colleges that provide that education. Not everyone wants to go to university.
3) what happens if I get injured before I start school? Does the team still get me a scholarship or do they de-commit to me
I think the great thing about the CHL system is that it does give you more time to decide what you want to do should you not be playing hockey. And it gives you more options on what to use it for
Unless you are super elite like a John Tavares, Stamkos or McDavid, I don’t think going to the CHL just to not play Tier 2 is a good reason. You just never know how your game will translate to the next level. Players that are amazing at AAA don’t always make it in the CHL of NCAA. And players that are amazing in CHL or NCAA don’t always make it to the NHL. I would think most players are making their decision based on what is best for them should they not make it in Pro hockey.