OMG67
Registered User
- Sep 1, 2013
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It's hard to say but I could see around 20. But I also see some 18 and 19 year old's leaving.
How many players debate whether they are going the CHL or NCAA route before signing in the CHL. Many sign in the CHL because the option of playing Tier 2 Jr. A for two seasons doesn't appeal to them. Now those players can sign in the CHL and then bolt to the NCAA at 18 or 19. Best of both worlds for them.
The NCAA has no draft. It's essentially a free for all when it comes to recruiting. Do you not think these schools will hire additional scouts who will scout OHL players and make a pitch for them to come to their school?
The odds of an elite 18 or 19 year old leaving the OHL are slim. Those players l have been NHL drafted. It is Moore likely they will remain in the CHL. The second tier players that are solid CHLers but not NHL prospects will have to make a decision but there is no clock on their decision. Most enter the NCAA at 19. Some of the elite players enter at 18 but I think we’ve already established that the elite players that start in the CHL will likely remain in the CHL. So, those 2nd tier players that aren’t elite only start NCAA at 19 anyway. The CHL players that want to play NCAA are more likely to remain in the CHL for their 19 year old season, then delay their NCAA start one year and jump at 20.
So, then it comes down to the question of what the OA’s would do. I think you already have that answer. Most OA’s have played 3-4 years in the CHL. They have accumulated 3-4 years of scholarship credits. There is nothing stopping the OA’s from bolting for the CIS option. But, what do they typically do? If they don’t turn pro at 20, they play an OA year in an effort to prove to the Pro ranks they are capable. They use that extra year available to them. I don’t see why they would approach the NCAA vs CIS vs Pro any different.
How I see it is there is another option for CHL players once their CHL eligibility is complete. We may see some 20 year olds leave early but not in droves. We may see a 3rd tier CHL player in a bad situation leave at 19. You know that early CHL pick that never really panned out that is still good but finds himself behind a few younger players on the depth chart? That kid may leave early but that isn’t a huge loss.