LeBrun: Chiarot likely to be dealt and return a 1st round pick

[JustAHabFan]

Get ready to get flamed from Bern

For me, Chiarot feels like the typical 2 2nds candidate.

But like we said before, it is really going to depend on what else is available that will ultimately dictate the value of rentals this season.

The problem with expecting a first is that several teams have already moved their firsts for 2022, and the teams that are holding them are not going to be interested in moving them for rentals. I don't expect more than 4 firsts to move this deadline, and a couple of those are likely going to go for forwards. Then add the fact that there will likely be several UFA D men available, and I don't really expect values to be as high as they have been in the past.

The value on the trade market depends on a GM perception. If an GM think Chiarot was the missing link to put their team to the top then he will give a lot to acquire Chiarot.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Brenden Dillon in a very similar situation got a 2nd and 3rd at the TDL. I hate when people compare him to Savard getting a 1st last year. Savard was legit the only RHD on the market, where as LHD are both easier to come by, and there should be a handful up for grabs.

 

[Gravity]

Chiarot will get a 1st and HF will be mad. Habs can retain if need be as well spiking his value further. He'd be a valuable asset to any contender.

 

[Goldenhands]

Highway robbery if they do, the dude is awful.

What? Some folks have no clue really. Chairot is rock solid defensively, extremmely physical, is great positionally, good enough in transition for a big guy, takes good decisions with the puck and can score some goals with his heavy shot. He is a solid 2nd pairing defenseman and is perfectly suited for the playoffs. This board will never stop to surprise me. Its like all Habs players are crap and worth nothing. Pathetic.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Brenden Dillon in a very similar situation got a 2nd and 3rd at the TDL. I hate when people compare him to Savard getting a 1st last year. Savard was legit the only RHD on the market, where as LHD are both easier to come by, and there should be a handful up for grabs.

Ignoring that the Brendon Dillon trade is less recent and thus less relevant, the reason people are saying the Habs should be able to get a 1st for Chiarot isn't the Savard trade, its that Johnston, LeBrun, Friedman, Pangotta and (per Eric Engels) four anonymous NHL executives all think the Habs should be able to get a 1st for Chiarot.

He might not actually be worth that, but some on these boards tend to completely ignore actual reputable insiders when it doesn't match the narrative on here.

 

[Goldenhands]

"Rock solid defensively" except all the turnovers and times he got beat in the finals. I'm not surprised the Habs did as bad as they did when they play a guy like him 20 minutes a night. If most of your players weren't crap you wouldn't be at the bottom of the standings.

Losing Price for a while and your captain for a whole season after a long playoffs run has been heartbreaking for alot of our vets. The energy wasnt there at the start of the camp, we had a bad start and never recovered with all the injuries.. Habs have quality players, our center line is weak, but we have quality wingers and defensemen. Chairot is one of our rare vets having a good season. Remains rock solid and poised most of the games. He is still playing like a solid 2nd pairing defenseman that can bring alot for a playoffs team. There is 0 doubt he returns a 1st, you guys are going to look really bad.

 

[Sky04]

Losing Price for a while and your captain for a whole season after a long playoffs run has been heartbreaking for alot of our vets. The energy wasnt there at the start of the camp, we had a bad start and never recovered with all the injuries.. Habs have quality players, our center line is weak, but we have quality wingers and defensemen. Chairot is one of our rare vets having a good season. Remains rock solid and poised most of the games. He is still playing like a solid 2nd pairing defenseman that can bring alot for a playoffs team. There is 0 doubt he returns a 1st, you guys are going to look really bad.

Great, I hope a team overpays for him cause playing against him made the finals that much easier.

 

[Goldenhands]

We got a 2nd rd pick + a conditional 4th for Marco f***ing Scandella 2 yrs ago lol, a 6th defenseman and people are trying to make me believe Chairot isnt worth at least a 1st? Yeah ok...

 

[Goldenhands]

Ben Chairot should return us about what L.A. got for Jake Muzzin.

 

[admiralcadillac]

Highway robbery if they do, the dude is awful.

Yeah I’m sure this would be the narrative if he played for a team that wasn’t the Habs.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Ben Chairot should return us about what L.A. got for Jake Muzzin.

No he shouldn't. Muzzin still had another year left in his deal, and was scoring at a 0.5 PPG pace as a defenseman both the year before and the year he was traded. Chiarot is an expiring deal, and doesn't bring as much upside as Muzzin while being around the same defensively. Muzzin was just about to turn 29, while Chiarot will be 31 just after this season ends.

Like I said before, Chiarot should be more comparable to Dillon. Dillon complimented Burns/Karlsson just as Chiarot has to Weber. They both were on teams that went deep the year before (2019 sharks/2021 habs), and those teams then tanked in the standings, while the players are on expiring deals. Dillon got a 2nd and a 3rd to a contender.

 

[admiralcadillac]

That wouldn't be the narrative if he wasn't an embarassment in the finals.

Neat let’s judge a guy who played very good hockey, 23-26 minutes a night for a season and 3 playoff rounds, on his 5 games played against the best team in recent memory.

 

[Irie]

The value on the trade market depends on a GM perception. If an GM think Chiarot was the missing link to put their team to the top then he will give a lot to acquire Chiarot.

While what you say is true in many situations, you can not ignore the overall environment.

GMs overpay when,
1.) They think the acquisition of one player is going to make their team elite

And

2.) The options are extremely limited.

I don't believe any GM in the league is saying "Chiarot is the guy that makes us a champion".

And there's likely going to be 10-12 teams looking to sell players this deadline, which will greatly expand options and lower costs.

When I look at the trade environment, I see 12 teams that are sellers, they won't be buying ufas.

Then there will be 10 bubble teams. I just don't see any bubble teams trading their first for Chiarot.

Then we have the contenders. 10 teams that may legitimately be looking to add a guy like Chiarot, but 4 of them have already traded their 1sts in previous deal and are unlikely to sacrifice back to back first rounders for a Chiarot rental.

Lastly, there is likely going to be several decent players on the block this year, more than usual, which is going to dictate the market and perception for GMs and their actions.

Ultimately you are right in that it only takes one GM with a misguided sense of value for a given player, but when there are less GMs in the market and more options for those GMs, the likelyhood of selling a player for premium assets is greatly decreased.

 

[Captain Mountain]

While what you say is true in many situations, you can not ignore the overall environment.

GMs overpay when,
1.) They think the acquisition of one player is going to make their team elite

And

2.) The options are extremely limited.

I don't believe any GM in the league is saying "Chiarot is the guy that makes us a champion".

And there's likely going to be 10-12 teams looking to sell players this deadline, which will greatly expand options and lower costs.

When I look at the trade environment, I see 12 teams that are sellers, they won't be buying ufas.

Then there will be 10 bubble teams. I just don't see any bubble teams trading their first for Chiarot.

Then we have the contenders. 10 teams that may legitimately be looking to add a guy like Chiarot, but 4 of them have already traded their 1sts in previous deal and are unlikely to sacrifice back to back first rounders for a Chiarot rental.

Lastly, there is likely going to be several decent players on the block this year, more than usual, which is going to dictate the market and perception for GMs and their actions.

Ultimately you are right in that it only takes one GM with a misguided sense of value for a given player, but when there are less GMs in the market and more options for those GMs, the likelyhood of selling a player for premium assets is greatly decreased.

Even if we accept all that as true, your argument requires that your opinion of player value and perception being more valid than most of the top NHL insiders and unnamed NHL sources.

 

[JuJu Mobb]

Didn't know HFBoards had so many people within NHL circles.

It's really a sight to see.

 

[ottawa]

"Rock solid defensively" except all the turnovers and times he got beat in the finals. I'm not surprised the Habs did as bad as they did when they play a guy like him 20 minutes a night. If most of your players weren't crap you wouldn't be at the bottom of the standings.

Chiarot isn't a guy you play for 20 minutes a night, especially against a team like Tampa.

He's a guy you play on the 2nd pair because you have a 1st pairing that can support your team defensively much better.

Chiarot is an absolute lock for a 1st (or conditional 1st), it's not even a question lol...anyone who has watched him play outside that round would agree in a heartbeat.

 

[Weztex]

Great, I hope a team overpays for him cause playing against him made the finals that much easier.

That wouldn't be the narrative if he wasn't an embarassment in the finals.

Man, did Chiarot bullied you as a child or something?

Nobody is mistaking Chiarot for Chara. But for a guy who found himself in a chair not that suitable for him, he's been extremely useful. He would likely be a solid addition playing 15 minutes on a contender team and will fetch Montreal an interesting return whatever your take on him is.

By the way judging a player on 5 game SCF and pompously trashing him is a little childish.

 

[Irie]

Even if we accept all that as true, your argument requires that your opinion of player value and perception being more valid than most of the top NHL insiders and unnamed NHL sources.

I don't think we have to accept anyone's opinion of player value for my premise, my point isn't strictly based on individual player value, which most seem to be basing off of Savard's return last season. My argument is that value is based on number of buyers and available buying options affecting player value. That is simple supply and demand.

And for the record, I am not asking you or anyone else to accept my premise as fact, it is just my opinion and we should find out how far off I am at somepoint this season, because until then, no one knows what ultimately will happen.

Who predicted Buchnevich would return a 2nd as the centerpiece while Ristolainen would garner a 1st and a 2nd? Strange things happen.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I don't think we have to accept anyone's opinion of player value for my premise, my point isn't strictly based on individual player value, which most seem to be basing off of Savard's return last season. My argument is that value is based on number of buyers and available buying options affecting player value. That is simple supply and demand.

And for the record, I am not asking you or anyone else to accept my premise as fact, it is just my opinion and we should find out how far off I am at somepoint this season, because until then, no one knows what ultimately will happen.

Who predicted Buchnevich would return a 2nd as the centerpiece while Ristolainen would garner a 1st and a 2nd? Strange things happen.

I think that kind of points out that HFBoard's opinion of what players are worth in a trade isn't great. Which is why we're probably better off listening to Friedman, Johnston, LeBrun, etc. Who are saying Montreal could/should get a 1st for Chiarot.

 

[Leafs1991]

Man, did Chiarot bullied you as a child or something?

Nobody is mistaking Chiarot for Chara. But for a guy would found himself in a chair not that suitable for him, he's be extremely useful. He would likely be a solid addition playing 15 minutes in a contender team and will fetch Montreal an interesting return whatever your take on him is.

By the way judging a player on 5 game SCF and pompously trashing him is a little childish.

Yup, plus one his an NHL player who is clearly good at his job while this other guy is sitting at home posting on HF.

 

[IIxGURUxII]

I think that kind of points out that HFBoard's opinion of what players are worth in a trade isn't great. Which is why we're probably better off listening to Friedman, Johnston, LeBrun, etc. Who are saying Montreal could/should get a 1st for Chiarot.

There is a clip on SN website having Freidman saying he'd go for a second .. this is from a couple days before Lebrun saying a first

 

[Hacketts]

There is a clip on SN website having Freidman saying he'd go for a second .. this is from a couple days before Lebrun saying a first

1st and a 2nd

 

[Captain Mountain]

There is a clip on SN website having Freidman saying he'd go for a second .. this is from a couple days before Lebrun saying a first

I haven't seen that, but Friedman also said on a 32 thoughts podcast that he could absolutely get a 1st. Johnston said he can get a 1st this week on TSN. Chiarot is Number 1 on the TSN trade bait board. Eric Engels cited 4 NHL front office executives saying Montreal could likely get a 1st for him. Pagnotta said they could get at least a 1st round pick. This isn't coming from just one insider.

 

[Goldenhands]

No he shouldn't. Muzzin still had another year left in his deal, and was scoring at a 0.5 PPG pace as a defenseman both the year before and the year he was traded. Chiarot is an expiring deal, and doesn't bring as much upside as Muzzin while being around the same defensively. Muzzin was just about to turn 29, while Chiarot will be 31 just after this season ends.

Like I said before, Chiarot should be more comparable to Dillon. Dillon complimented Burns/Karlsson just as Chiarot has to Weber. They both were on teams that went deep the year before (2019 sharks/2021 habs), and those teams then tanked in the standings, while the players are on expiring deals. Dillon got a 2nd and a 3rd to a contender.

In recent history, Skjei and Savard returned a 1st and Chairot is better than both.

 

[CTHabsfan]

The 1st-round pick the Habs will receive for Ben Chiarot would have been a 2nd-round pick before some of the more recent expansion teams arrived. Too many people on this board act as if all 1st-round picks are equal to lottery picks.