Player Discussion Charlie McAvoy IV

[LouJersey]

Why do people feel this is the case?

Like for me, I haven't had a great appreciation for his partner's game to start the year. But I also haven't done numbers research on anyone, so I don't know if my eye is in conflict with common knowledge.

I thought he has looked good. I have to watch closer lol

 

[The National]

Well, with Calgary now the front runner in the Eichel sweepstakes, I'd be looking at Calgary to see what kind of cap they want to shed and for what.

I'd love to get Rasmus Andersson but that is highly unlikely.

I can see them trying to shed Nikita Zadorov considering his low usage vs contract. But obviously that doesn’t help us replacing Cliffy.

I like Gudbranson but he’s not much of a cap relief for Calgary or much of an upgrade over Cliffy.

Andersson and Tanev are probably a little too expensive for 3rd pairing/Cliffy replacements, but I’d love Andersson as well.

 

[EverettMike]

Why do people feel this is the case?

Like for me, I haven't had a great appreciation for his partner's game to start the year. But I also haven't done numbers research on anyone, so I don't know if my eye is in conflict with common knowledge.

So his advanced stats are always really bad. Thus far this season they've been worse than ever.

For the life of me I have never been able to figure out if this fanbase overrates him, or if the advanced stats miss what he seemingly does well. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, but considering how often those advanced stats do line up with what I believe I am seeing, it makes me think Carlo is a below average defender who simply plays a game that seems better than it is.

I'll tell you this much though, there's a zero percent chance I would have given him that contract. One of the biggest things advanced stats show is that defensemen tend to fall off a cliff much, much faster than forwards. When you add in his injury concerns that contract has a chance to be a real anchor, whereas the upside is not very high.

(This makes it sound like I hate Carlo. I absolutely do not. I just can't figure out why the numbers say he's flat out bad. Defensive zone starts can't explain numbers this bad.)

 

[arider1990]

So his advanced stats are always really bad. Thus far this season they've been worse than ever.

For the life of me I have never been able to figure out if this fanbase overrates him, or if the advanced stats miss what he seemingly does well. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, but considering how often those advanced stats do line up with what I believe I am seeing, it makes me think Carlo is a below average defender who simply plays a game that seems better than it is.

I'll tell you this much though, there's a zero percent chance I would have given him that contract. One of the biggest things advanced stats show is that defensemen tend to fall off a cliff much, much faster than forwards. When you add in his injury concerns that contract has a chance to be a real anchor, whereas the upside is not very high.

(This makes it sound like I hate Carlo. I absolutely do not. I just can't figure out why the numbers say he's flat out bad. Defensive zone starts can't explain numbers this bad.)

I think it more deals with his play style doesn't line up well with advanced stats like CF. A lot of defensive d men grade poorly on them. Another example of that is Ryan McDonagh who has worse advanced stats than Carlo. On the hand guys that are more offensive like Krug and Makar grade out well in these metrics.

 

[EverettMike]

I think it more deals with his play style doesn't line up well with advanced stats like CF. A lot of defensive d men grade poorly on them. Another example of that is Ryan McDonagh who has worse advanced stats than Carlo. On the hand guys that are more offensive like Krug and Makar grade out well in these metrics.

So @JFreshHockey has obviously become a great resource for these sorts of things. Especially because his breakdowns tell you exactly what elements of the game a player excels at and which ones he's deficient in.

(What these don't do well is explain that the higher number you get the better you are in relatively speaking. So being 100% is way better than 98% compared to the difference between 80% and 78%. But it's a sacrifice he admits to making so these are easy to understand and digest.)

For a guy like McDonagh, the numbers say he was really good, but has been on the decline. If they inherently discarded what he does well they would have always looked bad.



The good news is that his numbers also say that Carlo (prior to this season at least) has been a good defender who brings nothing on the offensive side. Which I think literally all of us would have said just from watching him.



Basically he has Carlo as a league average defensemen who only plays a 100-foot game. Sounds dead on. Why do some of Carlo's other advanced stats look so bad in comparison? I think that's what most of us can't quite explain.

But I think even trying to understand this is not only interesting, it's really informative.

 

[arider1990]

So @JFreshHockey has obviously become a great resource for these sorts of things. Especially because his breakdowns tell you exactly what elements of the game a player excels at and which ones he's deficient in.

(What these don't do well is explain that the higher number you get the better you are in relatively speaking. So being 100% is way better than 98% compared to the difference between 80% and 78%. But it's a sacrifice he admits to making so these are easy to understand and digest.)

For a guy like McDonagh, the numbers say he was really good, but has been on the decline. If they inherently discarded what he does well they would have always looked bad.



The good news is that his numbers also say that Carlo (prior to this season at least) has been a good defender who brings nothing on the offensive side. Which I think literally all of us would have said just from watching him.



Basically he has Carlo as a league average defensemen who only plays a 100-foot game. Sounds dead on. Why do some of Carlo's other advanced stats look so bad in comparison? I think that's what most of us can't quite explain.

But I think even trying to understand this is not only interesting, it's really informative.

I think Carlo's advanced stats like CF and FF take a hit partly because of deployment. Him getting so much shorthanded time ends up with more shots in his own zone than his opponents. If you look at his even strength numbers and 5 on 5 numbers he grades out a lot better. I do think he has some offense to his game it's just he hasn't used it consistently mainly due to being paired with a player like Krug for 3 years so he didn't need to work on it. Right now I would say he has the best slap shot among the d on the team(not like that is a great accomplishment).

 

[The National]

So @JFreshHockey has obviously become a great resource for these sorts of things. Especially because his breakdowns tell you exactly what elements of the game a player excels at and which ones he's deficient in.

(What these don't do well is explain that the higher number you get the better you are in relatively speaking. So being 100% is way better than 98% compared to the difference between 80% and 78%. But it's a sacrifice he admits to making so these are easy to understand and digest.)

For a guy like McDonagh, the numbers say he was really good, but has been on the decline. If they inherently discarded what he does well they would have always looked bad.



The good news is that his numbers also say that Carlo (prior to this season at least) has been a good defender who brings nothing on the offensive side. Which I think literally all of us would have said just from watching him.



Basically he has Carlo as a league average defensemen who only plays a 100-foot game. Sounds dead on. Why do some of Carlo's other advanced stats look so bad in comparison? I think that's what most of us can't quite explain.

But I think even trying to understand this is not only interesting, it's really informative.

This is Carlos 20-21 vs 20-22 stats(how they’re trying to gauge last seasons small sample size) and they look pretty similar. Offensive numbers down and defensive numbers up.

His WAR timeline may have something to do with carrying a paring in the later years, concussions, sacrificing defense to improve offense.

 

[HustleB]

I thought he has looked good. I have to watch closer lol

Ditto. It makes me feel like I am letting Jack and Brick tell me how Carlo is doing rather then seeing it for myself as I try too. I thought he was shooting more and more effectively but I think Dom showed that wasn’t true. I am definitely going to focus on him for a few games here.

 

[HustleB]

This is Carlos 20-21 vs 20-22 stats(how they’re trying to gauge last seasons small sample size) and they look pretty similar. Offensive numbers down and defensive numbers up.

His WAR timeline may have something to do with carrying a paring in the later years, concussions, sacrificing defense to improve offense.

Does this chart say he was more offensive then defensive in his first year or does it say he was just bad at both as a 19 yo compared to NHL veterans?

 

[The National]

Does this chart say he was more offensive then defensive in his first year or does it say he was just bad at both as a 19 yo compared to NHL veterans?

Yeah he was paired with Chara for the majority of his rookie year where he was driving most of the offense on that pairing. The second year was basically the opposite, he was paired with Krug where he had to take a lot of the weight defensively so that’s where his focus was.

 

[PlayMakers]

Why do people feel this is the case?

He generates the least amount of shots on goal when he's on the ice. He also gives up the most shots on goal when he's on the ice. It's that way across the board. He allows the most scoring chances and high danger chances against, and he creates the least scoring chances and high danger chances... Long story short, he's getting hemmed in his zone a lot (which I've noticed watching the games). He does have the most Dzone starts (20) on the team so that's definitely a factor, but his partners (Reilly and Gryz) are both on the plus side so it's not just the starts.

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

delete

 

[DominicT]

He generates the least amount of shots on goal when he's on the ice. He also gives up the most shots on goal when he's on the ice. It's that way across the board. He allows the most scoring chances and high danger chances against, and he creates the least scoring chances and high danger chances... Long story short, he's getting hemmed in his zone a lot (which I've noticed watching the games). He does have the most Dzone starts (20) on the team so that's definitely a factor, but his partners (Reilly and Gryz) are both on the plus side so it's not just the starts.

Depends on who he is paired with. The HDC have been terrible when paired with Reilly. They are best when paired with Gryz. Heck the Forbort/Carlo pair (which includes PK time) is better than Reilly/Carlo.

Heck, even the xGF% is better on a Forbort/Carlo pair than a Reilly/Carlo pair.

This is ALL situations including PK and PP. Reilly/Carlo has not worked like it should have (based on a season ago). I'm not sure how much is on Carlo and how much is on Reilly. For the most part, both are better away from each other with their HDC, not so much with their CF% and FF%

 

[PlayMakers]

Depends on who he is paired with. The HDC have been terrible when paired with Reilly. They are best when paired with Gryz. Heck the Forbort/Carlo pair (which includes PK time) is better than Reilly/Carlo.

Heck, even the xGF% is better on a Forbort/Carlo pair than a Reilly/Carlo pair.

This is ALL situations including PK and PP. Reilly/Carlo has not worked like it should have (based on a season ago). I'm not sure how much is on Carlo and how much is on Reilly. For the most part, both are better away from each other with their HDC, not so much with their CF% and FF%

View attachment 476709

It's amazing how different that Reilly-Carlo pair is this year to last. Last year, they were as good as the Gryz-Mac pair in their small sample. This year, it's like they forgot how to play together.

Reminds me of the Sturm-Bergeron-Boyes line, or Sturgeroyes as someone here once termed it (lol). One year they were good, the next they fell off a cliff.

 

[wintersej]

The sample size for saying that Reilly-Carlo can't work sure is small.

 

[PlayMakers]

The sample size for saying that Reilly-Carlo can't work sure is small.

I don’t think anyone is saying it can’t work. Just that it hasn’t worked so far.

 

[elMatador]

I don’t think anyone is saying it can’t work. Just that it hasn’t worked so far.

Out of 15 games last season he had played 6 of them against trashy Sabres could have done the trick

 

[13Hockey]

McAvoy on Pace for

82 Games Played
7 Goals
62 Assists
69 Points
+34

devolping into a offense stud

 

[PB37]

The only thing holding McAvoy back from being the best two way dman in the league is his shot. He's got a decent wrister and knows when to go to the net, but he rarely lets it rip, instead choosing to push it closer to the net. I guess it's just not in his dna. Everything else about his game is elite and he should again be a top 5 norris canadate this year.

 

[The National]

 

[loosemoose]

As I've said before he's the best player on this team. Well, maybe alongside Marchand, though McAvoy due to his position impacts the game more broadly.

 

[Alicat]

 

[Mione134]

Worth every penny.

 

[13Hockey]

scary good

 

[Dellstrom]

Worth every penny.

His contract doesn’t even kick in until next year and you’re absolutely right that he’s worth it today. The only number that mattered in this deal was the 8 years.

Exactly the start I was looking for out of him. We’re so lucky to have been able to watch him and Pastrnak develop into elite players so quickly. Taking everything into consideration he’s the most important player on this team. Can’t wait to see what he does over the rest of the year.