He averaged 20 points for his first two years where he was a 19/20 year old at the start of the season. He looked very very good during that Hamburglar run when Dave Cameron took over as head coach so it wouldn't surprise me if Dave Cameron has a high opinion on what Lazar might be capable of based on that run. He had mono in the off season and the Sens installed a new coach with a new system that was supposed to take months for the veterans to perfect which is why a segment of Sens fans don't think this year is reflective of what Lazar can do.
He also should evolve into a good leader off the ice. He has a rep for that.
If I'm a Flames fan, I wouldn't think that they made the steal of the century, but I'd be pretty happy to get Lazar for that pick. He's not going to be a top 6 player, nobody is trying to say that. But there's a good chance he could bounce back into a 20-30 point high motor third liner who ends up wearing a patch on his chest one day. This isn't a Yakupov situation where the player is a top 6 or bust type guy. Lazar's skillset is one that if his offensive doesn't translate from Junior to the NHL (which it hasn't) he still has all the tools to be a solid bottom 6 guy which is something teams need.
I don't think Ottawa would trade him if he could be sent to the AHL. They started him in the AHL this year but called him up after some injuries caused them to need players. He had a really good first game back and at that point the Sens weren't as secure as they are in now (even now they aren't secure) so it made sense for them to keep him up. But his play quickly declined and Guy Boucher didn't trust him enough to play him more than a few minutes a game. In Lazar's defense, he was playing with Kelly and Neil. In retrospect, allowing Lazar to play past his waiver date was a bit of a bone headed move but that's life.