Proposal: CGY Kadri for CAR Kotkaniemi+

[Haatley]

Why are the canes adding? Kadris contract is that bad

Show me the other 75 point centres getting paid 7 million.

 

[belair]

Carolina wouldn't have needed to load up and trade for "Kuz" if Kotkaniemi panned out. His "respectable" 43-point season was the best of his career and it was thanks to a game when he got five points. His next best season (the only other time he cracked 30 points) was his 34-point rookie year.

Looking at Calgary's roster, even without Kadri, I don't see Jesperi Kotkaniemi playing top-six. Kotkaniemi looked promising as an 18-year-old, but is now someone whose biggest selling point is he can be bought out cheaply.

Carolina traded for Kuznetzov, because there was an off-chance that he'd be close to the elite offensive talent he was once on a more competitive roster. It cost very little and it had nothing to do with Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

As for Calgary's depth, let's name of their natural centers after Kadri...

Mikael Backlund. That's all.

Kotkaniemi would get a chance to play in Calgary. Don't be foolish.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Carolina wouldn't have needed to load up and trade for "Kuz" if Kotkaniemi panned out. His "respectable" 43-point season was the best of his career and it was thanks to a game when he got five points. His next best season (the only other time he cracked 30 points) was his 34-point rookie year.

Do 5 point games not count for a players point total?

He's averaged a 36 point pace during his tenure as a Hurricane, while playing in a primarily defensive role. In that span, he's 3rd in 5v5 CF% among true centers, behind only Staal and Bergeron (>2000 5v5 mins in the last 3 years).

He's averaged 1.75 P/60 as a Hurricane, which ranks 63rd in the sample referenced, sandwiched between guys like ROR, Suzuki, Hertl, Dubois, and RNH. He's also 45th in G/60 among that group, and 36th in ixG/60. His average level of productivity and underlying numbers suggest that he's been a solid middle 6C over the last 3 years, he just needs to continue to add consistency to his game.

 

[Double Dion]

The notion that we would move Kadri when we have 2 NHL centers baffles me unless we are getting useful assets for a rebuild. Kotkaniemi if everything goes perfectly is a crappier version of Backlund. It's also very unlikely things go perfectly since he's only had one season where you could say he was a crappier version of Backlund. The others all look like a 4C.

 

[Haatley]

Carolina traded for Kuznetzov, because there was an off-chance that he'd be close to the elite offensive talent he was once on a more competitive roster. It cost very little and it had nothing to do with Kasperi Kotkaniemi.

As for Calgary's depth, let's name of their natural centers after Kadri...

Mikael Backlund. That's all.

Kotkaniemi would get a chance to play in Calgary. Don't be foolish.

Zary is a natural centre.

I assume you mean Jesperi Kotkaniemi and not the goalie, Kasperi, correct?

Zary was much better than him in his rookie season. Had he played 82 games he almost certainly would have eclipsed Kotkaniemi's best season.

 

[Volica]

I think Kadri would be much better served playing for a contender than slumming it out in Calgary for the next few seasons.
There's going to be some absolute stink in YYC over the next two years for sure.

I honestly thought the Rangers would have been a nice fit for Naz. Get Vinny Trocheck's TOI down a little bit; and not have to worry about playing the ghost of Alex Wennberg 16 minutes a night in a playoff run.

 

[belair]

Zary is a natural centre.

I assume you mean Jesperi Kotkaniemi and not the goalie, Kasperi, correct?

Zary was much better than him in his rookie season. Had he played 82 games he almost certainly would have eclipsed Kotkaniemi's best season.

Yes, Jesperi. Odd names.

Zary, though a natural center, only took 100 draws last season and played much of it on the wing. Sharangovich is technically a C, too. But again, he saw a lot of success last season playing wing on a scoring line.

If I'm the Calgary Flames, I'm copying Chicago and pulling in a few overpaid vets that teams are willing to pay (even modestly) to offload to fill that lack of depth up the middle.

The guys building their games on the wing, I'd keep on the wing.

 

[Double Dion]

Yes, Jesperi. Odd names.

Zary, though a natural center, only took 100 draws last season and played much of it on the wing. Sharangovich is technically a C, too. But again, he saw a lot of success last season playing wing on a scoring line.

If I'm the Calgary Flames, I'm copying Chicago and pulling in a few overpaid vets that teams are willing to pay (even modestly) to offload to fill that lack of depth up the middle.

The guys building their games on the wing, I'd keep on the wing.

I don't honestly know if Zary is a C and I know Sharangovich is better on the wing. The player I really want to see at center is Pospisil. I think he could be a really strong 3C. He's a great skater, positionally sound, supports the puck from below like a C is supposed to and is strong enough to win board battles.

We really only have 2 surefire NHL centers ATM though, you're not wrong about that.

 

[madmike77]

I think Kadri would be much better served playing for a contender than slumming it out in Calgary for the next few seasons.
There's going to be some absolute stink in YYC over the next two years for sure.

I honestly thought the Rangers would have been a nice fit for Naz. Get Vinny Trocheck's TOI down a little bit; and not have to worry about playing the ghost of Alex Wennberg 16 minutes a night in a playoff run.

That may be true but he signed a long-term deal for better or for worse. The Flames aren’t going to deal him unless there’s an offer that benefits them. They’re going to need his salary to stay at the cap floor.

 

[Backlund]

Well, if you talk buyout, that kind of means you are stuck with him because other teams are looking at that age 34-39 years left and have very little interest. Any trade that happens, means a equal contract is coming back.

Sure, you can buy him out if you have too. That doesn't help his trade value though

No it just means if for some reason we have to get rid of him then we can. Talking about the buyout doesn't mean we're going to or need to it just means its an option. Everyone is acting like they're doing Calgary some type of favour by taking Kadri when we have no reason to get rid of him and if we did we wouldn't need to take whatever you're willing to give.

 

[Lunatik]

I know capfriendly is down now, but please do look up the retention and term left on Monahan's contract when he was traded.

Comparing this to Monahan is beyond laughable. These situations are s different that they aren't even in the same f***ing stratosphere.

Monahan was a walking band-aid when he was traded, he'd had several different surgeries over the previous few years, and the Flames were desperate for cap relief and it forced them into a terrible trade.

Kadri is healthy, playing some of the best hockey of his career, and the Flames have the most cap space in the league

 

[archangel2]

Show me the other 75 point centres getting paid 7 million.

2 times in a 13 year career? If he did it 50% of the time I would agree

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The notion that we would move Kadri when we have 2 NHL centers baffles me unless we are getting useful assets for a rebuild. Kotkaniemi if everything goes perfectly is a crappier version of Backlund. It's also very unlikely things go perfectly since he's only had one season where you could say he was a crappier version of Backlund. The others all look like a 4C.

To be fair to KK, he's pretty much where Backlund was at the same age. It can take a fair amount of time for these types of 200 foot centers to develop their offensive games.

I don't think KK will ever be as good of an overall center as Backlund because he lacks that skating ability (Backlund was the Flames best C for years IMO), but he still has a fair amount of upside. We've seen flashes of it, moreso when he's been given the opportunity to play in more of a top 6 role. But even in a relatively limited role in Carolina, he's still produced like a middle 6C at 5v5 over the last 3 years.

 

[stl76]

Comparing this to Monahan is beyond laughable. These situations are s different that they aren't even in the same f***ing stratosphere.

Monahan was a walking band-aid when he was traded, he'd had several different surgeries over the previous few years, and the Flames were desperate for cap relief and it forced them into a terrible trade.

Kadri is healthy, playing some of the best hockey of his career, and the Flames have the most cap space in the league

Not sure I understand your point. I was not comparing them, the poster I quoted was comparing them and I was trying to highlight how absurd the comparison was/is.

 

[Double Dion]

2 times in a 13 year career? If he did it 50% of the time I would agree

2 of the last 3 years. Didn't you argue earlier he was going to decline?

To be fair to KK, he's pretty much where Backlund was at the same age. It can take a fair amount of time for these types of 200 foot centers to develop their offensive games.

I don't think KK will ever be as good of an overall center as Backlund because he lacks that skating ability (Backlund was the Flames best C for years IMO), but he still has a fair amount of upside. We've seen flashes of it, moreso when he's been given the opportunity to play in more of a top 6 role. But even in a relatively limited role in Carolina, he's still produced like a middle 6C at 5v5 over the last 3 years.

We would agree that Backlund has been the Flames best center for close to a decade.

I don't think KK is close to Backlund with similar amount of games, but he is by age. That said, Backlund was an outlier in terms of development. He took a massive step around his 300th game played and became a top 3 defensive C. Kotkaniemi is almost at 400 gp. He's pretty good in his own end, but he hasn't taken the step Backlund did.

 

[Laphroaig]

I have no horse in this race but I find the initial proposal to be one of the more sensible trades I've seen here. It makes sense for both teams and could possibly put Carolina over the top.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

2 of the last 3 years. Didn't you argue earlier he was going to decline?
We would agree that Backlund has been the Flames best center for close to a decade.

I don't think KK is close to Backlund with similar amount of games, but he is by age. That said, Backlund was an outlier in terms of development. He took a massive step around his 300th game played and became a top 3 defensive C. Kotkaniemi is almost at 400 gp. He's pretty good in his own end, but he hasn't taken the step Backlund did.

I think it's not super uncommon for 200 foot centers to take a larger step in their mid 20s. McLeod, Hischier, and Zacha are all recent examples just from NJ. McLeod was just starting to take that next step before he ruined his career.

It seems like it's pretty common for young 200 foot centers to take a handful of years to peak:

Barkov
Couturier
Danault
Kadri
Kesler
Zajac
Schenn
Zibanejad
Koivu
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
Bennett

That's just off the top of my head. Backlund was a bit slower than others but I think he follows the trend. And I think it's pretty likely KK has probably yet to peak.

 

[Double Dion]

I think it's not super uncommon for 200 foot centers to take a larger step in their mid 20s. McLeod, Hischier, and Zacha are all recent examples just from NJ. McLeod was just starting to take that next step before he ruined his career.

It seems like it's pretty common for young 200 foot centers to take a handful of years to peak:

Barkov
Couturier
Danault
Kadri
Kesler
Zajac
Schenn
Zibanejad
Koivu
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
Bennett

That's just off the top of my head. Backlund was a bit slower than others but I think he follows the trend. And I think it's pretty likely KK has probably yet to peak.

Some of those guys aren't really 200 foot centers. Zibanejad and Schenn for sure. I just don't see the same thing you do in Kotkaniemi. Heck, Kotkaniemi wasn't even used at center the last third of the year and his possession stats offensively were largely carried by a shot generation machine of a team. It's kind of like how Gudbranson had really good offensive possession stats for the 21-22 Flames. I think you're overvaluing what Kotkaniemi is. He's played like 50 less games than Hischier as an example. Hischier has been a really strong 2 way guy for at least 3 seasons already. I think Kotkaniemi compares more to a Michael Rasmussen than he does to a Backlund.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Some of those guys aren't really 200 foot centers. Zibanejad and Schenn for sure.

Yeah they didn't turn out that way, but early on they were billed as 200 foot guys, but evolved away from that. But I think my point stands - tons of these types of centers don't start producing at peak levels until 5-7+ years after getting drafted.

I just don't see the same thing you do in Kotkaniemi. Heck, Kotkaniemi wasn't even used at center the last third of the year and his possession stats offensively were largely carried by a shot generation machine of a team.

He played center at the end of the year and into the playoffs. I suspected for some time that he was dealing with a wrist or hand injury for a while, not sure if that played into his temp shift to wing.

It's kind of like how Gudbranson had really good offensive possession stats for the 21-22 Flames. I think you're overvaluing what Kotkaniemi is. He's played like 50 less games than Hischier as an example. Hischier has been a really strong 2 way guy for at least 3 seasons already. I think Kotkaniemi compares more to a Michael Rasmussen than he does to a Backlund.

I don't think games played is necessarily the best indicator of development, especially for a guy that was rushed into the league. It seems like he's been around for forever, but still hasn't played a game as a 24 year old.

I think we'll probably see some 50+ point sessions from him. It's pretty rare for a center with his profile to peak at 22.

 

[Lunatik]

Not sure I understand your point. I was not comparing them, the poster I quoted was comparing them and I was trying to highlight how absurd the comparison was/is.

my bad, I am unable to see their posts, it looked like you were making a terrible comparison without that context, this place would be much better if everyone followed my lead and blocked them so no one would reply to them.

 

[CTHabsfan]

Do 5 point games not count for a players point total?

He's averaged a 36 point pace during his tenure as a Hurricane, while playing in a primarily defensive role. In that span, he's 3rd in 5v5 CF% among true centers, behind only Staal and Bergeron (>2000 5v5 mins in the last 3 years).

He's averaged 1.75 P/60 as a Hurricane, which ranks 63rd in the sample referenced, sandwiched between guys like ROR, Suzuki, Hertl, Dubois, and RNH. He's also 45th in G/60 among that group, and 36th in ixG/60. His average level of productivity and underlying numbers suggest that he's been a solid middle 6C over the last 3 years, he just needs to continue to add consistency to his game.

Yes, five point games count, but it's noteworthy Kotkaniemi's only 40-point season was due to a fluke game. Kotkaniemi has averaged 33 points/season as a Hurricane, with 2022-23 being the only season he topped 30 points.

The 36 point (35.7) "pace' is based on playing 82 games/season, something that's tough to do when you're a healthy scratch. You claim he's been used primarily in a defensive role, yet his percentage of shift starts in the offensive zone versus the defensive zone is similar to Sebastian Aho and not at all like Jordan Staal (see moneypuck.com). Could it be his being used in a "defensive role" is the result of his not providing adequate offense?

The modern stats you've referenced are as useful as the old plus/minus stat. Points per 60 doesn't reflect who you are playing against. Fair to say opposing coaches put better players on the ice to face ROR, Suzuki, Hertl, Dubois, and RNH than they do for KK. Jesperi Kotkaniemi has a tough time being a 4C with Carolina, he certainly has not been "a solid middle 6C". He is still the same player we saw in his 2018-19 rookie season, when we thought he could really be something if he just adds consistency to his game.

 

[DFF]

Kadri is a legit 2C with Stanley cup experience. You could even argue he is a good one. He has easily 2-3 yrs left. He is a perfect fit for a real contender wanting to win now. The Flames can easily help with the cap they don’t need but the return has to real.

The Canes are not the real contender so I understand why their fans don’t want him.

 

[bleedgreen]

Kadri is a legit 2C with Stanley cup experience. You could even argue he is a good one. He has easily 2-3 yrs left. He is a perfect fit for a real contender wanting to win now. The Flames can easily help with the cap they don’t need but the return has to real.

The Canes are not the real contender so I understand why their fans don’t want him.

We all think he’s a good player. We know our management won’t do it. You can’t pretend contracts don’t matter. Us getting Kadri isn’t the worst idea in a vacuum, but this particular offer doesn’t make a lot of sense and Canes management just wouldn’t do it. This isn’t the Burns deal so it’s not a good comparable.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yes, five point games count, but it's noteworthy Kotkaniemi's only 40-point season was due to a fluke game.

Even only 2 out of those 5 points would have given him 40 points.

Kotkaniemi has averaged 33 points/season as a Hurricane, with 2022-23 being the only season he topped 30 points.

The 36 point (35.7) "pace' is based on playing 82 games/season, something that's tough to do when you're a healthy scratch. You claim he's been used primarily in a defensive role, yet his percentage of shift starts in the offensive zone versus the defensive zone is similar to Sebastian Aho and not at all like Jordan Staal (see moneypuck.com). Could it be his being used in a "defensive role" is the result of his not providing adequate offense?

Defensive role = limited PP time, and often asked to be carry the defensive responsibilities on his line (often had poor 2 way wingers on his flank) and asked to take key faceoffs. He played his role very conservatively as a facilitator, and allows his linemates to drive the offense.

The Staal line is the shut down line.

The modern stats you've referenced are as useful as the old plus/minus stat. Points per 60 doesn't reflect who you are playing against. Fair to say opposing coaches put better players on the ice to face ROR, Suzuki, Hertl, Dubois, and RNH than they do for KK. Jesperi Kotkaniemi has a tough time being a 4C with Carolina, he certainly has not been "a solid middle 6C". He is still the same player we saw in his 2018-19 rookie season, when we thought he could really be something if he just adds consistency to his game.

Well he's 6th in total 5v5 goals and points among Canes forwards since he joined the team (5th in 5v5 p/60, 4th in 5v5 g/60), while being a positive possession player in those 3 years and good in the dot and providing a physical presence. Seems like a middle 6 guy to me.

His 5v5 numbers since joining the team put him smack dab in the middle of the rest of the Canes forwards:

Seems like you're just a salty Habs fan who has no idea what he's talking about.

 

[DFF]

We all think he’s a good player. We know our management won’t do it. You can’t pretend contracts don’t matter. Us getting Kadri isn’t the worst idea in a vacuum, but this particular offer doesn’t make a lot of sense and Canes management just wouldn’t do it. This isn’t the Burns deal so it’s not a good comparable.

Not the same situation as Burns. Burns was much older and on a declined. Kadri is in his prime and 7M is actually a fantastic deal for what he provides. Yes, term is the problem but the Flames can help with that.

Anyway, I agree, Kadri is for a team to win it NOW and the Canes are not so I agreed, they wont do it