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Prospect Info: CBJ Prospect Thread XI

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I won't do an overall top-something list just yet but this is how I'd rank them at each position (F, RD, LD, G):

F
Johnson
Marchenko
Voronkov
Foudy
Chinakhov
Pyyhtia
Del Bel Belluz
Dolzhenkov
Fix-Wolansky
Fisher
Angle
Malatesta
Dumais
Meyer
Luoto
Dunne
Rysavy
Boyd

RD
Jiricek
Ceulemans
Blankenburg
Bjork
Hjorth

LD
Mateychuk
Svozil
Richard
Makarov
Christiansen
Bjorgvik-Holm
Hreschuk
Knazko
Berni

G
Ivanov
Tarasov
Greaves
 
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1. Johnson

2. Jiricek
3. Mateychuk
4. Blankenburg
5. Ceulemans

6. Marchenko
7. Tarasov
8. Richard
9. Chinakhov
10. Foudy
11. Del Bel Belluz
12. Svozil

13. Voronkov
14. Dolzhenkov
15. Pyythia
16. Knazko
17. Dumais

18. Hreschuk
19. Meyer
20. Makarov

Past this there's a handful of players who very well could become NHLers. Last three aren't even bad prospects and one of them played decently in the NHL already !

Our defensive prospects are incredible. I would need to look around more, but it wouldn't surprise me if we have the best pool of defense prospects league wide. Just for perspective, I think Blankenburg will play top pair most of this season and he's my 3rd best defenseman in our pool. Ceulemans is close as well. The depth we have is ridiculous at that position as well. There are teams who would love to have just Richard, Svozil, Knazko, Hreschuk, Makarov, Bjork, Holm as their defensemen pool. Kinda off topic but with how I see this teams outlook, if we do become a perennial SC contender it will be due to our young defensemen.

Our forwards aren't bad either. Johnson is obviously the leader of that group, and Sillinger effectively being a prospect helps as well. Others like Marchenko a lot more than I do, but I'm hoping I'm wrong and he's truly high end. Him being a long term answer in the top 6 would be excellent.

Funny enough I forecast high end wingers to be an organizational need in a few years. I see Johnson as a center, and losing Bjorkstrand, and eventually losing Voracek will reveal a need there unless it's addressed soon. That said, Texier and Marchenko could just be those guys. Just depends on if Texier can add another gear to his game and if Marchenko is who some of yall think he is. I liked the swings on Dumais and Dolzhenkov because we will never be short on 3rd line tier wings, so take the guys who may end up elite. A wildcard who may end up a big piece of this team is Pyythia. Maybe Chinakhov could become a high end wing, I don't really want to write harsh stuff about him after his rookie season though so I'll just leave it at that. We all watched him.
 
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Under my criteria, for a player to be eligible for inclusion as a prospect, he must be:

  • Under 23 years old. We know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done with the steep progression we typically see in prospects and/or has begun to plateau.
  • Not currently in the NHL, with rare exceptions for players who I believe could still bounce between levels, aren’t yet considered full-time NHLers by their teams or made their first appearances in the NHL as Black Aces in the preceding season. This is the arbitrary section of the criteria where I trust my judgment more than a games cutoff. Preference for exemption is always given to teenaged players rather than 22-year-olds. Here, I consider things like whether or not a player played more games in the NHL than any other league in the preceding season.
  • Either signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without either of those rights having expired.
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7. Kent Johnson, C/LW, 19 (Columbus Blue Jackets — No. 5, 2021)
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18. David Jiricek, RHD, 18 (Columbus Blue Jackets — No. 6, 2022)
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28. Denton Mateychuk, LHD, 18 (Columbus Blue Jackets — No. 12, 2022)
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Scott Wheeler at The Athletic ranked his top 50 NHL prospects (criteria listed above). Three Blue Jackets made the list.
 
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I know we'll be going through our consensus rankings one by one and many of us will add our own thoughts/lists (Which I will do below :D ) but I want to say that I don't ever recall having a prospect pool as deep as we appear to have right now. Add to that those on the roster that are also under 25 and this has a chance to be a very special time for the CBJ. There is really only one area that I still have minor concern over and that's in goal. While I really like Tarasov and think Ivanov has a chance to be an NHL player (has the skill basis to be a starter but a little smaller and very unproven - as well as who knows if he ever comes over), I feel least confident about that position in our NHL and prospect pool. Otherwise, there is serious depth and serious upside in every other area (I look at Forwards as a hole. Clearly one could argue we lack that true 1C but I'd like to see Sillinger, Johnson and even Roslovic over the next year or two and their growth curves).

Here's how I see the overall ranking (my opinion only)

1. Johnson
2. Jiricek
3. Marchenko
4. Mateychuk
5. Ceulemans
6. Chinakhov
7. .Svozil
8. Tarasov
9. Blankenburg
10. Foudy
11. Richard
12. Del Bel Belluz
13. Voronkov
14. Makarov
15. Knazko
16. Christiansen
17. Pyyhtia
18. Dolzhenkov
19. Malatesta
20. Hreschuk
21. Ivanov
22. Bjorgvik-Holm
23. Meyer
24. Fix-Wolansky
25. Dumais
26. Dunne
27. Fisher
28. Angle

I mean, this pool is deep... I tried to base my rankings not only on skill set but the probability they would play NHL games. And if they do play in the NHL, the likelihood of how they might contribute. Obviously as you get lower on the list the table shifts a little to upside vs NHL probability. For example, I think Pyyhtia and Dolzhenkov have very high upside but it may never be achieved, especially in the NHL, whereas, Meyer and TFW, for example, likely play more NHL games but I just don't see impact potential in such players. That's still pretty damn impressive as once you get outside the 1st round the likelihood to achieve 200 NHL games drops precipitously. The few others in the system that I didn't rank could surprise but I just think they lack any NHL quality skill or are average/below average in too many areas to think they will play in the NHL but that's just where I'm at with them today. Maybe another year of growth and they change minds too (Rysavy is one I'm watching)

Also, I did not really consider Luoto and Bjork prospects simply because they are both 24 with extensive pro experience. I do think they have a shot at playing NHL games and that would put them somewhere in the 16/17 range on the list above. I think they have decent potential but do not expect game breakers - stranger things have happened (see Panarin, Artemi)
 
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I’ll post my list since everyone else is. First a few thoughts on some of the guys…
Not sure what people see I’m Voronkov that has him so “high” on peoples lists. I watched him a lot over the past few years and I don’t see anything more than a bottom 6 guy similar to Brian Boyle. Luca Del Bel Belluz is being slept on. This guy is a gamer, and if he fixes his skating he has many of the attributes you look for in a 1C at the NHL level. He’s gonna play his way onto team Canada for the WJC, just watch.
Anyway, here’s my list:
1. Johnson
2. Jiricek
3. Ceulemans

4. Marchenko
5. Mateychuk
6. Del Bel Belluz
7. Tarasov

8. Svozil
9. Blankenburg
10. Pyyhtia 🥵
11. Richard
12. Knazko
13. Dumais

14. Foudy
15. Makarov

16. Hreschuk
17. Voronkov
18. Malatesta
19. Meyer
20. Dolzhenkov

Shit. Made the list and forgot Chinakhov.. he probably slots in at 8.
 
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Cowumbus said:
I’ll post my list since everyone else is. First a few thoughts on some of the guys…
Not sure what people see I’m Voronkov that has him so “high” on peoples lists. I watched him a lot over the past few years and I don’t see anything more than a bottom 6 guy similar to Brian Boyle. Luca Del Bel Belluz is being slept on. This guy is a gamer, and if he fixes his skating he has many of the attributes you look for in a 1C at the NHL level. He’s gonna play his way onto team Canada for the WJC, just watch.
Anyway, here’s my list:
1. Johnson
2. Jiricek
3. Ceulemans

4. Marchenko
5. Mateychuk
6. Del Bel Belluz
7. Tarasov

8. Svozil
9. Blankenburg
10. Pyythia 🥵
11. Richard
12. Knazko
13. Dumais

14. Foudy
15. Makarov

16. Hreschuk
17. Voronkov
18. Malatesta
19. Meyer
20. Dolzhenkov

Shit. Made the list and forgot Chinakhov.. he probably slots in at 8.
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One [possibly misguided] principle I've picked up over the years is that players with Voronkov's playstyle translate really well to the NHL even if the scoring [in other leagues] isn't great. They can also make an impact at the NHL beyond scoring. Like we should hope that Voronkov is better than Toropchenko - Another giant who plays for St. Louis - but Toropchenko is a guy who added some power in the playoffs for the Blues and a bit of value despite not scoring at all.

If by God's grace we make the playoffs next year, I wouldn't be surprised if Voronkov goes from scoring ten point season in the KHL to the NHL playoffs and pots a couple goals and looks like a beast. That's not to say that I know he'll make it, it just means I'm not sweating it if he is only ok in the KHL.
 
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majormajor said:
One [possibly misguided] principle I've picked up over the years is that players with Voronkov's playstyle translate really well to the NHL even if the scoring isn't great. They can also make an impact at the NHL beyond scoring. Like we should hope that Voronkov is better than Toropchenko - Another giant who plays for St. Louis - but Toropchenko is a guy who added some power in the playoffs for the Blues and a bit of value despite not scoring at all.

If by God's grace we make the playoffs next year, I wouldn't be surprised if Voronkov goes from scoring ten point season in the KHL to the NHL playoffs and pots a couple goals and looks like a beast. That's not to say that I know he'll make it, it just means I'm not sweating it if he is only ok in the KHL.
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That’s fair. But I do think it’s fair to say that he took a step back last year. Guys like Jordan Weal (career NHL 4th liners) more than doubling his scoring (on the same team) concerns me.

His PNHLe has gone down year over year. Hopefully he can have an impact, I like him as a prospect.
 
Cowumbus said:
That’s fair. But I do think it’s fair to say that he took a step back last year. Guys like Jordan Weal (career NHL 4th liners) more than doubling his scoring (on the same team) concerns me.

His PNHLe has gone down year over year. Hopefully he can have an impact, I like him as a prospect.
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I don't even look at KHL scoring anymore. It's too weird. Like Linden Vey scored about as much as Kaprizov.
 
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majormajor said:
I don't even look at KHL scoring anymore. It's too weird. Like Linden Vey scored about as much as Kaprizov.
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This is very much true. Very weird results with some players. You can’t make much of assumptions of how a player will do in the NHL based on their KHL production. Although bad production very rarely gives any good possibilities of doing well in the NHL, but on the other hand even very good production in the KHL doesn’t guarantee anything at the NHL level.
 
Cowumbus said:
Not sure what people see I’m Voronkov that has him so “high” on peoples lists. I watched him a lot over the past few years and I don’t see anything more than a bottom 6 guy similar to Brian Boyle. Luca Del Bel Belluz is being slept on. This guy is a gamer, and if he fixes his skating he has many of the attributes you look for in a 1C at the NHL level. He’s gonna play his way onto team Canada for the WJC, just watch.
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In terms of offensive IQ/creativity, shooting, passing and stickhandling I'd comfortably say DBB >>> Voronkov.

In terms of skating, size, athleticism (physical strength, stamina etc.) and intangible qualities, it's the other way around. I don't see a significant talent gap between them in other "areas" of their games.

I don't think you and I strongly disagree on evaluating these attributes of DBB and Voronkov. We probably just emphasize certain things differently when ranking prospects. Higher upside in a player might be more important to you than it is to me. Who is more likely to have a longer career in the NHL is a more weighing factor for me.

Just to play a silly game with numbers: If DBB had 50% chance of playing 200+ games in the NHL, then I would probably give Voronkov 70% chance for the same milestone.

Odds for making it in the NHL as a top-6 center: DBB 25%, Voronkov 5%
As a bottom-6 center: DBB 15%, Voronkov 60%
500+ points in the NHL: I don't know.... maybe 10% each?
 
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majormajor said:
I don't even look at KHL scoring anymore. It's too weird. Like Linden Vey scored about as much as Kaprizov.
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This. For example the Slepyshev -- Karnaukhov -- Voronkov line was one of the best if not best on OG in Russia Team. Still Gritsyuk. Not Shipachev. Besides we can't forgot Ak Bars started terrible in the last season. And, what is important, he's a young guy and he plays in the third line.
 
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tunnelvision said:
In terms of offensive IQ/creativity, shooting, passing and stickhandling I'd comfortably say DBB >>> Voronkov.

In terms of skating, size, athleticism (physical strength, stamina etc.) and intangible qualities, it's the other way around. I don't see a significant talent gap between them in other "areas" of their games.

I don't think you and I strongly disagree on evaluating these attributes of DBB and Voronkov. We probably just emphasize certain things differently when ranking prospects. Higher upside in a player might be more important to you than it is to me. Who is more likely to have a longer career in the NHL is a more weighing factor for me.

Just to play a silly game with numbers: If DBB had 50% chance of playing 200+ games in the NHL, then I would probably give Voronkov 70% chance for the same milestone.

Odds for making it in the NHL as a top-6 center: DBB 25%, Voronkov 5%
As a bottom-6 center: DBB 15%, Voronkov 60%
500+ points in the NHL: I don't know.... maybe 10% each?
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Voronkov is about to turn 22, DBB about to turn 19, and at 19 is much much further along than Voronkov in terms of actual skill development. Your percentages are biased due to age IMO.
 
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