It's time to unveil my top 20 prospects. I used to do this 2 times a year at least, but now have settled into doing it just once over the last two.
Here was last years list. If you click the hyperlink you will see a bunch of explanations of why I picked the prospect where I did and a brief overview on what I like and dislike about certain prospects.
But if you're lazy like me and just want the list, here it is:
1. Kent Johnson
2. Kirill Marchenko
3. Cole Sillinger
4. Dmitri Voronkov
5. Liam Foudy
6. Yegor Chinakhov
7. Daniil Tarasov
8. Andrew Peeke
9. Corson Ceulemans
10. Samuel Knazko
11. Stanislav Svozil
12. Josh Dunne
13. Tyler Angle
14. Nikolai Makarov
15. Ole Julian Bjorkvik Holm
16. Trey Fix-Wolansky
17. Samuel Johannesson
18. Jacob Christiansen
19. Tim Berni
20. Mikael Pyyhtia
As always, I use the same criteria. How good they are now, how good they can be, and the likelihood they get there. These are all, of course, in my opinion.
*Keep in mind my criteria to be a prospect might be different than others. My criteria is you are considered a prospect if you have less than 82 games played in the NHL as a skater, a full season, or 30 starts as a goalie. Also anyone at or over the age of 25 will either be considered graduated or not a true prospect anymore.*
Graduated: Peeke, Sillinger
In: Jiricek, Mateychuk, Del Bel Belluz, Blankenburg, Dumais, Richard, Hreschuk
Out: Dunne, Johannesson, Berni, Angle, Bjorkvik-Holm
1. Kent Johnson
2. David Jiricek
3. Kirill Marchenko
4. Corson Ceulemans
5. Nick Blankenburg
6. Yegor Chinakhov
7. Denton Mateychuk
8. Guilliame Richard
9. Liam Foudy
10. Daniil Tarasov
11. Dmitry Voronkov
12. Stanislav Svozil
13. Samuel Knazko
14. Luca Del Bel Belluz
15. Jacob Christiansen
16. Jordan Dumais
17. Mikael Pyyhtia
18. Nikolai Makarov
19. Trey-Fix Wolansky
20. Aiden Hreschuk
Firstly before I explain why I picked where, I want to address why Cole Sillinger isn't on this list. Technically, he should be as he only played in 79 games. However, he was in the NHL a full season and even though he didn't play 82, I think he's clearly graduated passed prospect level. But if you want to be picky and want me to place him, I would have him at #2.
I think its pretty clear the Kent Johnson is the #1 in our pool by a decent margin, which is saying something because our prospect pool is stacked. I think in an average prospect pool Luca Del Bel Belluz is probably near the top 5, but on my list he's outside of the top 10. That's saying something.
But anyway, back to KJ. He's one of the only players to be able to play for Team Canada three times in a single season (World Juniors, Olympics, and World Championships). He had a very good season at Michigan, and although looked a bit overwhelmed in the NHL, was able to get his feet wet against the best of the best. He didn't look out of place against men during his team Canada stops. He will likely be in the NHL this year. And I think he will be a difference maker, and is one of the best prospects in hockey.
Jiricek at 2. He was my third favorite overall prospect in the draft and filled a huge need for the Jackets. Big, rangy, good enough skater. Great defensive play, but won't excite you with anything he does unless you're a big hockey nerd. Has the makings to be a top pair RHD which is one of the most valuable pieces to a hockey team. Reminds me a lot of Seth Jones.
The next group was really hard to rank. I gave the edge to Marchenko because I believe he has the biggest upside of anyone on our prospect list aside from Johnson. Last year didn't go the best for him, whether that be for his own play or for stuff he can't control, he should be settled in to North American hockey this year whether it be in the NHL (likely IMO) or AHL.
Ceulemans with a big jump up. His first half at Wisconsin left a lot to be desired especially as a first round pick, but we'll chalk that up to COVID layoff because his second half was great. Reminds me a little bit of Tony DeAngelo in his play but with a bit better defensive upside. Needs to continue rounding up his overall game, but I think he's on track to be a top 4 defenseman and likely someone you can put on your second PP unit.
I picked Blankenburg over both Chinakhov and Mateychuk because I believe he has top 4 upside and a higher floor than both players. He's not going to blow you away with offensive numbers like Mateychuk maybe can, but he's just solid. I really respect his game, and I'm believing in the small sample he showed at the end of the season. Seems to be a high character guy as well. At the very least Blankenburg will make an impact on a bottom pair in the NHL for years to come.
Chinakhov's first season was a bit of a mixed bag. Reminds me a bit of Laine in some of the worst ways. He's not lazy, but seemed to really rely on his teammates to do the heavy lifting. He seemed timid, which is to be expected, but I think more developing is in order (In the AHL). Still, there is no denying the offensive upside. He has high end skills that I think will translate well if the rest of his game can catch up. He has high upside but a low floor.
Mateychuk is one I think will rise. As of now I have him at 7, but I think by this time next year he could be all the way up to 2 or maybe even 1. Good skater, superb instincts, and an offensive threat from the point. Seems to be the lifeblood of his team and a leader. Needs to round up his defensive game though. He's bigger, but he reminds me a little bit of what we saw when Kris Russell was coming up. I am excited to see how he plays this year.
One of my biggest mistakes with last years list was with Guilliame Richard, being left off was a complete miss. From what I've seen and what I've read, he's got major upside and had a very promising first season in college. Maybe I am overcorrecting a mistake, but Richard was seen as a steal when we got him and I can see why.
I know its become the cool think to give up on Liam Foudy and call him a bust, but when you look at his numbers he's actually on a pretty good trajectory to the NHL. Produces well in the AHL, even in a diluted league a few years ago, and dealt with an injury last year. When he was drafted, I took some heat for calling him a low ceiling but high floor guy. I still believe he has bottom 6 NHL upside.
Tarasov was a hard one to rank. He looked excellent in his limited NHL minutes, however his AHL numbers leave a lot to be desired. He also had a major injury and one I am uncomfortable with. I hope his recovery is going well and he's ready for a big load of minutes for Cleveland. Can easily rise on this list.
Voronkov falls pretty hard, its not just because his offensive upside is low. But he just wasn't as effective last year. He also had a pretty bad injury the slowed down his play. Still, he has a high floor and will be an impactful bottom line energy player in my opinion.
I am destined to go back and forth between preferring Svozil or Knazko. Today, I would say Svozil. Simply put he stands out more when I watch him. That's not necessarily a bad thing for Knazko, but I feel like Svozil has more upside.
Del Bel Belluz is an interesting pick. Wasn't my favorite prospect, but he has the stature of a good player and has made strides in his skating. Needs to become better defensively if he's going to play C in the NHL, which we have a lot of that, but you could definitely see why people had him going in the first round. It will be a big year for him. Middle six upside.
Christiansen was solid in the AHL, but very sheltered in his limited NHL time. To me, likely an AHL player with cups of coffee in the NHL, but that's not bad for an undrafted guy. If he carves out an NHL career it will be as a bottom pairing PP specialist. But I could see him getting passed over on the depth chart quickly if he doesn't replicate his offensive success.
Dumais pick reminds me a lot of the Bjorkstrand pick, however the size is a major reason why he fell. His offensive ability is great. I read somewhere that he will be losing both of his linemates this year to graduation, so it will be interesting to see how his offensive game fairs with him being "alone." If he's anywhere near the same production, he will shoot up the rankings.
Pyyhtia, Makarov, and Fix-Wolansky all showed different signs of progress. Pyyhtia exploded offensively after being just OK his first few years and is poised to show even greater upside. I just question if the success is sustainable. He wasn't very impressive in my limited showings of him two years ago, and even less so at the WJC in 2021. However his progress was undeniable and is on the radar going forward especially with an ELC in his pocket for the future.
Makarov showed more offensive promise than I thought he had last year. Still the big rangy defensive guy, but his offensive game is also becoming a bit more polished. He will require a lot of waiting before potentially making the jump.
Fix-Wolansky appears to be an AHL journeyman. Which is fine. Seems like a good high character player. Liked his limited showings in the NHL, but didn't see anything that flashed that he was going to belong long term.
For 20, I went back and forth between Malatesta, Hreschuk, or Dolzhenkov. I picked Hreschuk for the upside even in a down freshman season
Overall, I think our prospect pool is pretty stacked. Only a few teams can compete with it top to bottom, and we have a great mix of forwards and D. Only one goalie is scary though, and something they need to keep in mind in future drafts (I know they picked a Russian kid).
I'd say Johnson and Jiricek are A prospects, Marchenko, Ceulemans, Blankenburg, Chinakhov, and Mateychuk are B prospects, Richard, Foudy, Tarasov as C+ prospects, Voronkov through Pyyhtia as C prospects, and the last few being lower than that.