WannabeFinn
Beloved One
I think it's worth mentioning, if for no other reason than to point out his goals weren't #s 7-11.
Prospect Info: CBJ Prospect Thread VI
- Thread starter Samkow
- Start date
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Glad to see Sherwood doing well.
I see his brother play at every Miami home game, and he's stuck out to me every time since the beginning of last year when he was a freshman.
Miami has a young team right now, and Kiefer will be one of their leaders over the next couple of years. He's playing really well this year, and plays a fast, hard checking game. He reminds me of Josh Anderson, and by the time he's a senior he's going to be a very good player. Hopefully the Jackets can sign him too once he graduates.
I see his brother play at every Miami home game, and he's stuck out to me every time since the beginning of last year when he was a freshman.
Miami has a young team right now, and Kiefer will be one of their leaders over the next couple of years. He's playing really well this year, and plays a fast, hard checking game. He reminds me of Josh Anderson, and by the time he's a senior he's going to be a very good player. Hopefully the Jackets can sign him too once he graduates.
Old Guy
Just waitin' on my medication.
- Aug 30, 2015
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Isn't it just amazing that about 120 days ago we, as a community, ranked and rated our prospects. We voted each round so this was the majority opinion all the way through.
Now we have training camp, the World Juniors and half of the season in the books. Our prospects just look dramatically different than what we all felt just 4 months ago.
2016
Rank
|
Player
|
Position
#1
|Zach Werenski|D
#2 |Pierre-Luc Dubois|LW
#3 |Oliver Bjorkstrand|RW
#4 |Joonas Korpisalo|G
#5 |Sonny Milano|LW
#6 |Josh Anderson|RW
#7 |Gabriel Carlsson|D
#8 |Anton Forsberg|G
#9 |Vitaly Abramov|RW
#10 |Paul Bittner|LW
#11 |Keegan Kolesar|RW
#12 |Daniel Zaar|RW
#13 |Dean Kukan|D
#14 |Markus Nutivaara|D
#15 |Vladislav Gavrikov|D
#16 |Elvis Merzlikins|G
#17 |Dillon Heatherington|D
#18 |Andrew Peeke|D
#19 |Veeti Vainio|D
#20 |Markus Hannikainen|LW
Now we have training camp, the World Juniors and half of the season in the books. Our prospects just look dramatically different than what we all felt just 4 months ago.
2016
#2 |Pierre-Luc Dubois|LW
#3 |Oliver Bjorkstrand|RW
#4 |Joonas Korpisalo|G
#5 |Sonny Milano|LW
#6 |Josh Anderson|RW
#7 |Gabriel Carlsson|D
#8 |Anton Forsberg|G
#9 |Vitaly Abramov|RW
#10 |Paul Bittner|LW
#11 |Keegan Kolesar|RW
#12 |Daniel Zaar|RW
#13 |Dean Kukan|D
#14 |Markus Nutivaara|D
#15 |Vladislav Gavrikov|D
#16 |Elvis Merzlikins|G
#17 |Dillon Heatherington|D
#18 |Andrew Peeke|D
#19 |Veeti Vainio|D
#20 |Markus Hannikainen|LW
I dunno, is it really that different? Anderson and Nuti have been a pleasant surprise, but generally this still looks pretty good to me.
JKinCLE
killing time @ work
Sedlak as well who doesn't even appear on this list.
edit: Don't know why I just checked, but I popped in to see how our old friend Kerby Rychel is doing in Toronto. In 33 games, he has 19 points, and a team worst -14. Can he officially be called a bust yet?
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Old Guy
Just waitin' on my medication.
- Aug 30, 2015
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I understand and don't totally disagree.
Josh Anderson has been a lineup fixture. He is a couple slots back of Bjorkstrand. Yes, we all expected Oliver to make the team and he was given a chance. So not a big surprise there - maybe a mild surprise.
Werenski has justified his #1 mid summer ranking. Good on him - good on us.
Nutivaara is ranked #14 and has been the #6 d-man since we got 5 games into the season. We didn't see that coming. Big surprise.
PLD didn't get 9 games before he got sent back. Surprised me. Maybe that was one of the first signs that the CBJ broke camp with more talent that they have had previously.
As JKinCLE mentioned, nobody here saw Lucas Sedlak worthy of a top 20 spot. Yet he has been a fixture and contributor in the #4 C role. Huge shock.
Hannikainen creeps on to the list at #20 but has been called up a couple times. He has as many NHL games this year as Bjorkstrand (both 5). How is that not a shock?
To me that is 5 surprises (+ and -) in 120 days. That is 25 % of the list. I just think that is significant.
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Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
Of course, if in two years Carlsson and/or Milano has jumped Anderson and or/Nutivarra, we'll be right back on track.
You're right that we are often going to get things wrong (no Sedlak), but these things aren't fixed.
You're right that we are often going to get things wrong (no Sedlak), but these things aren't fixed.
Hello Johnny
Registered User
- Apr 13, 2007
- 13,208
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Imagine if we had taken Carlo at 29...
The 2015 draft would have already netted us 3 regular NHL defensemen...
The 2015 draft would have already netted us 3 regular NHL defensemen...
WannabeFinn
Beloved One
Well, that's just not true. Nuti and Carlo would've been fighting over the same spot. One of them would be playing in another league.
Hello Johnny
Registered User
- Apr 13, 2007
- 13,208
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Well, I think it all depends on how you rank prospects then. I'd still rank Bjork as a better prospect than Anderson, even though Anderson is in the NHL right now, for instance. That could definitely change over the course of this season and the next...
Columbus Jack
He's from Columbus
Sure its one thing to commend a person on being in the lineup but truthfully, unless these players stay in the lineup and produce, it's pretty unlikely we'll see that as a big impact. Plenty of guys make it to the NHL, not many stick around.
Does some of the decision-making behind prospects have to do with the salary cap and staggering contracts so you don't have people coming up for large pay increases at the same time? For example, if you have a guy who you think has a ceiling as a 3rd line wing, whereas another guy is a projected 1st liner but you've already have 2 or 3 other young top 6 liners, do you bring up that 3rd liner and hold off on calling up the projected future 1st liner (esp. if he can use a little more seasoning) because of a desire to stagger larger contracts in the future? Just wondering how much that factors in. I'm no expert on the NHL salary cap...
Making it to the NHL sooner doesn't make you a better prospect. When ranking prospects, it's about who will be better if they all reach their potential. Then, if prospects are close, you take into account things like their likelihood to reach their potential. For example, Bjorkstrand is a much better prospect than Sedlak, because his potential is greater. Sedlak is in the NHL, because he is more ready and he has pretty much already reached his potential.
I've got a lot of things I'd change from this list now.
Werenski
Bjorkstrand
Anderson
Milano
Rychel
Forsberg
Carlsson
Kolesar
Kukan
Merzlikins
Gavrikov
Zaar
Nutivaara
Bittner
Heatherington
Sedlak
Hannikainen
Paliotta
Vainio
Stenlund
Notes:
I don't follow the players in Europe so feel free to offer info on those.
Milano, Anderson, and Rychel I'd value pretty close. And that's Milano and Rychel falling as much as it is Anderson rising.
Forsberg is the big climber, and Paliotta and Heatherington the biggest fallers. I'll admit I didn't realize how far away they are until I saw them in the playoffs. It looks like they're years away from being NHLers and they're already 23 and 21, respectively.
Here's my early summer list, for transparency sake. This is after watching the Monsters playoff run.
Not feeling good about my Kukan and Kolesar picks.
I don't feel very surprised about Andy - he was a man amongst boys.
Sedlak looked like an NHL quality checking forward. I heavily weight upside so having him even 16th is very high for me (not much upside).
CBJWerenski8
Rest in Peace Johnny
- Jun 13, 2009
- 43,788
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Nah. That's not too bad of a statline (I don't care for plus minus). He's getting there though. How he didn't make the Leafs as a bottom 6er is beyond me. That's concerning. Hope things turn around for him.Sedlak as well who doesn't even appear on this list.
edit: Don't know why I just checked, but I popped in to see how our old friend Kerby Rychel is doing in Toronto. In 33 games, he has 19 points, and a team worst -14. Can he officially be called a bust yet?
Since MM bumped his pre-draft list, Here's mine post-draft. If you want to see my pre-draft one just click the red arrow and it'll go to that post in which I quoted my pre-draft list. I still like the way it looks, although I would obviously switch Werenski to 1, bump up Anderson ahead of Milano, and move Nutivaara up a little bit (among other changes like moving up Hannikainen, backing up Bittner, Kukan and Heatherington, and removing Stenlund entirely). But I still like this list.
I think we've got Stenlund too low.
6'4 center now picking up points in the SHL, still only 20 years old. That's all we know, and it's encouraging info.
6'4 center now picking up points in the SHL, still only 20 years old. That's all we know, and it's encouraging info.
JacketsFanWest
Registered User
Stenlund has had points in his last two games. He's centering the 4th line and getting about 12 min a game, so he's no longer on the 1st line playing wing and getting big ice time, but still producing. Both games were against Rögle, so not top competition, and not great goaltending.
And Dansk is finished as an NHL prospect.
Edited to add: Video highlights of the HV/Rögle game: http://www.shl.se/play/video/15350298. Stenlund's goal is at the 2 min mark. Dansk didn't get much help from his teammates but overall not standing out in any way. Stenlund is #82 in dark blue and yellow.
And Dansk is finished as an NHL prospect.
Edited to add: Video highlights of the HV/Rögle game: http://www.shl.se/play/video/15350298. Stenlund's goal is at the 2 min mark. Dansk didn't get much help from his teammates but overall not standing out in any way. Stenlund is #82 in dark blue and yellow.
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Maybe for the Blue Jackets but at Rögle he won the job over Lars Volden and is now competing against Anders Lindbäck. It ain't that far from the NHL for a young goaltender.
spintheblackcircle
incoming!!!
- Mar 1, 2002
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JacketsFanWest
Registered User
Dansk had a few good games earlier in the season where he was standing on his head and stealing games for a poor Rögle team. Lately, it doesn't seem like that's the case. Stats can be deceptive for goalies when a team is or isn't supporting their goalie, but Dansk is letting in goals he shouldn't. That's not exactly a good sign that he's going to be able to make the NHL at this point in his career.
Old Guy
Just waitin' on my medication.
- Aug 30, 2015
- 1,847
- 1,645
Okay, you had him 16th but making the roster. You didn't say which year. I assume it was this year, but okay. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. I was going on the majority opinion, which was how the rank was developed. You were correct on one of your disagreements with the majority opinion.
Which leads us to.................
How long should we wait before we review such a list? I'm not angry - just wondering. I re-posted it about 120 days after we finished the exercise. I thought it was fascinating to see how the prospects were performing compared to how we ranked them.
Maybe I should not have added the comment/hyperbole.
The point is you can't compare how they are performing to how they were ranked this quickly. Because we didn't rank them based on how they would perform this year. You need to wait a couple of years at least.
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