Prospect Info: CBJ Prospect Thread VI

[major major]

I'm copying this over from the prospect section to see what the folks here would think. I'm definitely spit-balling it so please fix it up.

I'd list Jackets top 20 like this, if we assume Korpisalo is graduated (he would have been 4th).

Werenski
Bjorkstrand
Milano
Anderson
Rychel

Kukan
Carlsson
Heatherington
Kolesar
Merzlikins

Gavrikov
Paliotta
Nutivaara
Bittner
Forsberg

Zaar
Vainio
Stenlund
Hannikainen
Maletta

Edited to add Hannikainen, bumped Nutivaara.

 

[WannabeFinn]

Hannikainen > Scott and Maletta

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

Nutivaara is top of the list based on what is shown and projected.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Nutivaara is top of the list based on what is shown and projected.

no

 

[Hello Johnny]

Nutivaara is top of the list based on what is shown and projected.

I really like Nutivaara, but he is at best our 10th best prospect at this point in time.

Pretty solid list, MM. I would imagine Pulju (or whoever) takes the #1 spot after the draft.

 

[Viqsi]

Nutivaara is top of the list based on what is shown and projected.

Riiiight. Okay then. So when is he making the team?

I mean, I'd move Zaar and Nutivaara up a tad on that list, but top?

 

[major major]

Hannikainen > Scott and Maletta

Oh I completely forgot about Hannikainen.

Riiiight. Okay then. So when is he making the team?

I mean, I'd move Zaar and Nutivaara up a tad on that list, but top?

Ahead of who?

 

[EspenK]

I'd move them all down a notch to make room for #3

 

[WannabeFinn]

btw if Korpisalo is considered graduated, wouldn't Rychel have graduated as well?

 

[major major]

btw if Korpisalo is considered graduated, wouldn't Rychel have graduated as well?

We were using the hf rules, which are different for goalies.

 

[Viqsi]

Oh I completely forgot about Hannikainen.



Ahead of who?

Both ahead of Bittner.

 

[WannabeFinn]

We were using the hf rules, which are different for goalies.

Ah okay, I forgot they changed the rules a bit for goalie prospects. Btw, I'd probably also add Moutrey on the list above Maletta/Scott as well just because he's got the pro experience (albeit in a grinding role).

 

[major major]

Both ahead of Bittner.

Eh, I don't know about that. Maybe. Bittner is 2 & 1/2 years younger than Zaar and Nutivaara, and what do you think the chances are that he gets healthy and figures his game out in that time span?

 

[Viqsi]

Eh, I don't know about that. Maybe. Bittner is 2 & 1/2 years younger than Zaar and Nutivaara, and what do you think the chances are that he gets healthy and figures his game out in that time span?

I think they're reasonably high, but I like concrete data (recent performances) more than supposition.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

I think they're reasonably high, but I like concrete data (recent performances) more than supposition.

Can Bittner provide Donskoi-like impact and a Finnish title (robbed out of a second one by an injury) and secure a place in his respective World Cup squad in 2,5 seasons? I doubt any of these other geezers can.

 

[major major]

I think they're reasonably high, but I like concrete data (recent performances) more than supposition.

I'm all about weighting recent play over pedigree, but age is even more important. And you can't factor that in without some degree of supposition and projection based on raw abilities.

Who is more likely to end up as a 3rd line scorer in the NHL, Bittner or Zaar? Even if I put Zaar there, I'd still consider Bittner the better prospect just because of age. That's because a 22 year olds range of ceiling-floor has considerably narrowed compared to a 19 year olds. And Bittner still has a chance, albeit a small chance, of hitting his stride and being a major contributor.

That's where prospects get really valuable and it more than counterbalances Bittner's much higher bust potential. A 3rd line scorer is replaceable on UFA for not too dissimilar a cost to an RFA, so those 3rd line prospects end up worth less than a raw kid who probably won't even end up in the NHL.

Can Bittner provide Donskoi-like impact and a Finnish title (robbed out of a second one by an injury) and secure a place in his respective World Cup squad in 2,5 seasons? I doubt any of these other geezers can.

As usual, I don't know what you're saying. But it does remind me of Nutivaara's impressive improvement in production and success in the playoffs. And Doonskoi is a great example of a guy coming over late from the Liiga and making an impact. He's a very underrated player - one of my favorite players in the league right now.

Defenders take longer to develop, and it's reasonable to wonder if Nutivaara has more undiscovered upside even at his age. I'll bump him over Bittner.

 

[The Jones Zone]

Aaron Portzline ‏@Aportzline

#CBJ prospect Keegan Kolesar, a power forward, had a strong WHL playoffs ... 7-8-15, plus-5, in 16 games. A prospect to watch, for sure.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Aaron Portzline ‏@Aportzline

A prospect to watch, for sure.

The analysis here is just...impeccable.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Major major inspired me to do my own top 20 prospects before the draft.

*Note: I am not counting Korpi or Rychel as graduated. My list is a projection of how good they are, can be, and the likelihood they get there.

1. Bjorkstrand
2. Werenski
3. Milano
4. Rychel
5. Korpisalo
6. Anderson
7. Kolesar
8. Carlsson
9. Paliotta
10. Forsberg
11. Bittner
12. Zaar
13. Kukan
14. Merzlikins
15. Heatherington
16. Nutivaara
17. Hannikainen
18. Gavrikov
19. Stenlund
20. Vainio

 

[stevo61]

Major major inspired me to do my own top 20 prospects before the draft.

*Note: I am not counting Korpi or Rychel as graduated. My list is a projection of how good they are, can be, and the likelihood they get there.

1. Bjorkstrand
2. Werenski
3. Milano
4. Rychel
5. Korpisalo
6. Anderson
7. Kolesar
8. Carlsson
9. Paliotta
10. Forsberg
11. Bittner
12. Zaar
13. Kukan
14. Merzlikins
15. Heatherington
16. Nutivaara
17. Hannikainen
18. Gavrikov
19. Stenlund
20. Vainio

Not a bad list, I like seeing Kolesar moving up. The 2 areas i would differ in opinion would be switching Paliotta and Kukan. I dont think Paliotta helped himself out this year. Also I like Heatherington more then most others it seems, I actually like him over Carlsson

 

[DarkandStormy]

^I'd flip 4-5-6 around to Korpisalo, Anderson, Rychel.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

http://www.suomikiekko.com/2016/05/...laishankinnasta-varmasti-hyvissa-asetelmissa/

Grandmaster Jarmo Kekäläinen's assessment of Nuti for SuomiKiekko in St. Petersburg:

"I believe that Markus has good chance to compete for place, all the way in the Blue Jackets next year. Physique has go forward to have it at NHL level. On the other hand his skating, mobility, game iq and puck moving are already that class.

But there is always transition period when coming to North America. Before the player steps on the ice it is impossible to tell how that process will go.

But he is a smart player, very skillful and comes with great motion. All is there for him to adapt to North American style of play really quickly. Good summer under him, more strength and he is surely at good standing when heading into NHL training camp.

You will see it when the guy steps into the box to play that how he adaps. We have strong belief into that he will become a NHL player and that is why the contract has been made."

Jarkko Ruutu was also there.

 

[Cowumbus]

Major major inspired me to do my own top 20 prospects before the draft.

*Note: I am not counting Korpi or Rychel as graduated. My list is a projection of how good they are, can be, and the likelihood they get there.

1. Bjorkstrand
2. Werenski
3. Milano
4. Rychel
5. Korpisalo
6. Anderson
7. Kolesar
8. Carlsson
9. Paliotta
10. Forsberg
11. Bittner
12. Zaar
13. Kukan
14. Merzlikins
15. Heatherington
16. Nutivaara
17. Hannikainen
18. Gavrikov
19. Stenlund
20. Vainio

Mine is

Werenski
Bjorkstrand
Rychel
Korpisallo
Milano (boom/bust)
Carlsson (underrated imo)
Anderson
Bittner (underrated imo)
Kukan (think there's a lot more to prove, looked great with Roman Yoshi)
Kolesar
Zaar
Forsberg
Nutivarra
Heatherington

Then the rest tied or close enough to debate them all.
I really like Bittner and think he could be Jenner2.0.

Milano has great skill and is a great player I just see him not panning out which stinks. Anyone higher than Zaar I think will eventually play in some games for the CBJ. TBH I am not quite sure what to make of Zaar, I'd like to see him get some time in the NHL to see how close he is.

However I think the safest prospects we have are Werenski, Rychel, Anderson and Bjorkstrand (in that order). Too much skill to not be able to at least play third line or bottom pairing mins.

 

[Viqsi]

http://www.suomikiekko.com/2016/05/...laishankinnasta-varmasti-hyvissa-asetelmissa/

Grandmaster Jarmo Kekäläinen's assessment of Nuti for SuomiKiekko in St. Petersburg:

"I believe that Markus has good chance to compete for place, all the way in the Blue Jackets next year. Physique has go forward to have it at NHL level. On the other hand his skating, mobility, game iq and puck moving are already that class.

But there is always transition period when coming to North America. Before the player steps on the ice it is impossible to tell how that process will go.

But he is a smart player, very skillful and comes with great motion. All is there for him to adapt to North American style of play really quickly. Good summer under him, more strength and he is surely at good standing when heading into NHL training camp.

You will see it when the guy steps into the box to play that how he adaps. We have strong belief into that he will become a NHL player and that is why the contract has been made."

Jarkko Ruutu was also there.

For one, that sort of thing gets said about a lot of folks his age that are brought in.

For another, there's a HUGE, HUGE gulf between "he has a good chance to be an NHL player" and "he's the most talented prospect in the organization".

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

For another, there's a HUGE, HUGE gulf between "he has a good chance to be an NHL player" and "he's the most talented prospect in the organization".

Nutivaara is a champion. Elite.

No matter how much the untapped potential there might pure age doesn't always work in your favour. What was said of Marko Dano is that some of those guys of his draft class hadn't even played in the men's leagues while he competed at the KHL and World Championship tournament. Dano, albeit 'younger' and raw was nowhere near where Nutivaara leaves Europe. To reach Nutivaara's so far career height point is quite the trick.

Not a single of that list in my estimation has reached Nutivaara's level so far, including Korpisalo and the others with NHL games. And it ain't like Nuti is done. He has only began with the chapter that will tell his NHL tale.

I think it is unwise to turn age against a man who has shown that it ain't the age, it is the play what you draft. You play the game to the last card.