Confirmed Trade: [CBJ/LAK/PHI] Provorov (30% retain by LAK) to CBJ; Walker, Grans, Petersen, '23 LAK 1st, '24 LAK 2nd, '24 CBJ 2nd to PHI; Connauton, Hodgson to LAK

[Alienblood]

I'll start by saying that I hate Rob Blake, and that he shouldn't be allowed to clean-up the mess that he made with these contracts, but a lot of people here have absolutely no idea how to value Kings players.

Firstly, if you fail to understand that Sean Walker is nothing more than a cap dump, you seriously don't watch the Kings. I didn't even want Walker taking 3rd pair minutes last season, and said repeatedly throughout the season that I'd have dumped him for a 7th if possible. He's a warm body 6th/7th defeseman making way too much money, period.

Grans is still a very young defenseman, and with those you never know who/what they might blossom into, but he's stagnated in the AHL and just had a poor season. His time was running out with the Kings as he was nowhere close to making the Kings roster (he alternated between 2nd and 3rd pairing of unimpressive play in Ontario). He's been passed by Spence at RD in Ontario, Clarke is turning pro, and Doughty and Roy aren't going anywhere. He needs a fresh start, and I hope this works for him, but he didn't have 2nd round value anymore.

In this trade the Kings traded a massively overpaid AHL goaltender, dumped a overpaid 6/7th defenseman, a 2nd round pick, and a stagnated prospect at a position of strength to open cap space. This is a good job by Blake to try and dig a bit out of the hole HE created, but he should still be fired

Avs fan here and I always hated Blake as a player too. Massively overrated

 

[PettersonHughes]

So breaking down the trade, it looks like
Provorov to CBJ for the 2024 2nd
Petersen, with sweeteners of varying degrees (in Walker, Grans and the two picks) to Philly, while Flyers pay the Kings with Hodgson and Connauton to broker the trade and retain 30%

Looks complex, but likely an all around fair deal

 

[Rorschach]

Seems like LA gave up a lot for just cap space. I wonder if Philly flips some of those piece for players

All of the players Philly received are very young and if they are allowed to keep developing, may actually help in the future. Also all of the players, from the Kings side, are cap dumps and are negative value on the market.

 

[Rorschach]

Is Columbus pushing their chips in here?

No, they're just putting some players on a team that just lost two starters (in a trade to LA, pending UFAs) so they can satisfy their new coach. Plus LA is re-visiting CBJ for help to shed cap space so that they can re-sign one or both of said players.

 

[Sniperberg]

This is a good one for everyone involved eh

 

[TBF1972]

W

Who's that guy Cal Peterson?

the flyers lottery ticket

 

[Rorschach]

I see a lot of people doing quick reviews on what they see...I'll try to go a bit deeper:

CBJ gets: Provorov, LHsD, signed for two more years, at $4.75 cap hit
>>>cheap hit and $ price for a budget team...$2m of his $6.75m being paid by LA. Likely helps satisfy future coach Mike Babcock. I heard he's a big minute muncher. <<<

CBJ gives up: LA's first, 22nd overall, acquired earlier for unloading 2 UFAs they weren't going to sign, LHSD Gavrikov and starting goalie Korpisalo; and, a 2nd rounder

CBJ overall: they basically paid a second to get a longer term LHsD (Gavrikov for Provorov) and got rid Korpisalo who they likely won't sign. Total budget team deal. And other than goaltender, they stay on course for maybe making the playoffs when their major injury players return. They probably saved at least a mil/year in Provorov vs. Gavrikov, assuming they could even sign Gav for what he rumoured will get in LA.



Philly gets: LA's 1st in '23, 22nd OA, and two seconds (one from CBJ and one from LA), a young goaltender that maybe can bounce back in Petersen; Walker, a RHsD signed only for one more year, LA D prospect Helge Grans

Philly gives: Provorov, and acquire two years of cap space in Petersen that would have gone to Provorov plus take on a cap hit of Walker.

Philly gets a pile of futures, and I consider Petersen a possible future, just not an A or S tier one. Plus as it appears Philly is going for the tank, the pick futures could maybe help Philly move up in the first two rounds in the draft if they want to. A tier prospect Helge Grans (but not S tier), 21 yo RHsD with decent size and ability, currently in the AHL, maybe a year or two away from NHL...a good formula for a desirable prospect.

One think no one is talking about is if Walker plays decently as a RHsD, and I bet with nothing to lose at the NHL level they will give Walker every opportunity, they can retain on RHsD Walker at/near the TDL and flip him to a playoff team that needs such a player...NHL-level RHsD's at 28/29 yo are decent assets. At, say, 50% retention for the rest of that deal, which ends next season, he may get Philly another decent pick/future.



LA gets: dumping a total of $5.65m of cap hit this year (total $7.65m gained, minus $2m for Provorov for 2y) and $3.65m next year as Walker would have come off the books end of next season; and two minor league players...maybe Connauton could be a 7th defenseman in case of injury? Hodgson looks like an enforcer type. They both don't add up to a 3rd rounder together.

LA gives: 2nd round pick next year, prospect Helge Grans

LA gets critical cap space in a year where they (GMRB, really) needs to sign Gavrikov, the missing LHsD piece the team needed, and room to sign a much improved Gabe Vilardi, and still have room to do other things like get a 1G goaltender under contract. The 2nd is next season so while LA lost it's 1st this year, they don't lose 1st and 2nd this year so that's ok.

As a Kings fan, not looking at GMRB's career and just looking at next year's roster, I like it. Dumping a total of $9+m of cap for a 2nd and a decent prospect is pretty good, especially right when you need it. But...to be real, if McClellan is still our coach, we will still chock in the playoffs. Last year we were an upstart team that gave Edmonton a run for it's money and exposed them a bit. This year, we had an improved Edmonton with a solid Ekholm on defense and a surging RNH on the ropes in the series at Game 4...but chockers will chock.



Overall:
CBJ and LA win in the short term as they have various level of playoff aspirations (and GMRB has "keep my job I hope" aspirations)
Philly potentially wins in the long term (no idea if any of those futures turns to even one decent NHL asset but at least they got quality and quantity to try).

 

[BB88]

If they don't solve the goaltending issue in the next 3 months, there is no chance of significant improvement.

Like I said, a team like Buffalo this makes more sense for. They already improved and are at a phase where playoffs are the natural next step.

Really?

They had half the roster from the AHL and got abysmal coaching.

Werenski takes over Gavrikovs role
Provorov replaces an AHL player
Babcock replaces Larsen and they have no chance at improving?
All those things won’t make goalies life easier?

+ all the internal growth they’ll get

 

[PensandCaps]

Provy is a shell of himself. Good on Philly for getting value from him before the obvious fall off.

 

[NotASheep]

kings get cap space. How they moved out a goalie on that contract is impressive. They freed up over 5mill in cap space and it only cost them a 2nd, walker and Grans. They kept 30% of Pos contract but getting out from under that goalies contract? I wish Holland was that creative

 

[Tripod]

At the end of the day Columbus basically swapped Gavrikov with Provorov. Except that Gavrikov is going to make $6m per year for two years and Provorov is going to make $4.7m for two years. Except Provorov is experienced in playing big time minutes and Gavrikov is not. Except Provorov is experienced in QBing first PP unit and Gavrikov is not. Except Provorov has scored highlight reel goals and Gavrikov hasn’t.

Columbus did good here, oh they did.

I think this is a deal where everyone got what they wanted/needed. But we have to caution you, Provys play the last few years has really declined.

He is not good on the PP. You don't want him on the 1st unit. Use Werenski and a F instead. He used to be good defensively doing things like sealing off guys on the rush to the boards. Now, they often get by him. He doesn't tie guys up in front, box the out either. It's really frustrating to watch. His rep>actual play now. Sanheim has been a much better player over the last few years. But maybe a new team, new voice, is the shakeup he needs.

It's worth the cost for CBus imo. Hope he turns things around.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Sean Walker kinda reminds me of a RHD version of Matt Read.

Walker was kinda stashed on the Kings 3rd pairing this season as they cut his ice time down a lot after Sean missed 76 games of the 21-22 season because of surgery to repair a torn ACL and MCL injury on his right knee.

Walker is an undersized defender who hasn’t played above 70 games in a season (the covy seasons are to blame as well). Sean only has 1 season left at $2.65mil so if something happens to him or he doesn’t play up to par the Flyers could move him at the next deadline.

This deal for Philadelphia is about gaining draft capital and a prospect.

 

[The Madrigal]

Hopefully Torts doesnt hate Walker and bury him so the Flyers can flip him for a 4 or 5 at the deadline. Even Fletcher was able to get a 4 for the ghost of Justin Braun. NHL gms sure do love their depth RHD for playoff runs.

 

[ijuka]

A rebuilding team for whatever reason trading away first and second round picks for a controversial defenseman who's not even that young, and will be UFA in 2 seasons.

Jarmo gonna Jarmo, why he's not fired yet, who knows.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

A rebuilding team for whatever reason trading away first and second round picks for a controversial defenseman who's not even that young, and will be UFA in 2 seasons.

Jarmo gonna Jarmo, why he's not fired yet, who knows.

That’s a good point you’ve brought up. If the cap raises after two seasons and if Provorov’s play improves, then Ivan could potentially get expensive for the Jackets payroll, then again if Ivan faulters during his final two seasons of his current deal then Columbus could try to flip him in the 2nd year or simply take a loss and walk away.

Makes the deal kinda risky for Columbus.

 

[mapleleafs34]

Philly is the biggest winner here IMO. Solid first trade for Danny.

 

[squashmaple]

A rebuilding team for whatever reason trading away first and second round picks for a controversial defenseman who's not even that young, and will be UFA in 2 seasons.

Jarmo gonna Jarmo, why he's not fired yet, who knows.

That’s a good point you’ve brought up. If the cap raises after two seasons and if Provorov’s play improves, then Ivan could potentially get expensive for the Jackets payroll, then again if Ivan faulters during his final two seasons of his current deal then Columbus could try to flip him in the 2nd year or simply take a loss and walk away.

Makes the deal kinda risky for Columbus.

It was a pick previously acquired for expiring UFA’s, not the Jackets’ own first. And the two years left is exactly what is attractive about Provorov, as it allows the team to develop their two very good left side defensive prospects (Mateychuk, Svozil) rather than throwing them in the deep end. This past season certainly rammed home the idea of NOT just letting the kids play.

I question Jarmo a lot these days, but targeting a solid player with two years left who fits a glaring need on the roster and using that second first to get it done isn’t one of the problems.

 

[Osprey]

Grans just turned 21 last month.
Kings’ 6th best prospect might be Philly’s 3rd best…
Whole Ontario team regressed from 41w to 34. Missed po. Maybe more players are to blame.

Most of the Ontario players produced about 10-20% less than they did the year before, but Grans produced 64% less, going from 24pts in 56gms to 9pts in 59gms. I don't know if his minutes or usage changed or he was playing through injury, but that decline really stands out from the rest of the team. He's young, though, so it may be nothing to worry about. Hopefully, it was just an anomaly and he rebounds next season. Maybe a new environment in which advancement isn't as blocked on the right side will give him more confidence and motivation. It couldn't have been very encouraging for him this season to know that, no matter how well he played, there was almost no chance of him beating out Clarke and Spence to make the Kings.

 

[JRichard]

So breaking down the trade, it looks like
Provorov to CBJ for the 2024 2nd
Petersen, with sweeteners of varying degrees (in Walker, Grans and the two picks) to Philly, while Flyers pay the Kings with Hodgson and Connauton to broker the trade and retain 30%

Looks complex, but likely an all around fair deal

Your post sounds like its missing most important piece (1st pick) from Clb to Philly while taking time to mention Hodgson and Connauton.

LA is paying 30% on IP

 

[BrindamoursNose]

I think this is a deal where everyone got what they wanted/needed. But we have to caution you, Provys play the last few years has really declined.

He is not good on the PP. You don't want him on the 1st unit. Use Werenski and a F instead. He used to be good defensively doing things like sealing off guys on the rush to the boards. Now, they often get by him. He doesn't tie guys up in front, box the out either. It's really frustrating to watch. His rep>actual play now. Sanheim has been a much better player over the last few years. But maybe a new team, new voice, is the shakeup he needs.

It's worth the cost for CBus imo. Hope he turns things around.

Yeah, we as Flyers fans can't emphasize this enough: Provorov is not a PP QB. He isn't good at it despite being put there for so long.

Provorov can bounce back but that likely won't ever be a strong suit

 

[Lt Dan]

W

Who's that guy Cal Peterson?

Future Norris and Jack Adam's winner!

 

[Curufinwe]

Flyers defense looking a little worse for wear but it’s a start.
1st Pair LD Sanheim RD Walker
2nd Pair LD York RD Ristolainen
3rd Pair LD Seeler RD Attard
LD Zamula

Walker is not going to be on the top pairing.

 

[JRichard]

Walker is not going to be on the top pairing.

If the proven best way to get back to competing is to tank, why not start Petersen and use Walker on 1st pair?
Should also send all young guys to Lehigh to avoid « abuse ».
great plan.

Sarcasm off

 

[BB88]

That’s a good point you’ve brought up. If the cap raises after two seasons and if Provorov’s play improves, then Ivan could potentially get expensive for the Jackets payroll, then again if Ivan faulters during his final two seasons of his current deal then Columbus could try to flip him in the 2nd year or simply take a loss and walk away.

Makes the deal kinda risky for Columbus.

Why?

Provorov means they don’t have to rush either Mateychuk or Svozil, who are both top4 LD prospects

So either they’ll have a chance at re-signing Provorov at 28y or have Mateychuk/Svozil step into his role for much cheaper

So about a zero % chance this trade( or Provorovs contract) ends up as a anchor for Columbus

 

[JRichard]

Why?

Provorov means they don’t have to rush either Mateychuk or Svozil, who are both top4 LD prospects

So either they’ll have a chance at re-signing Provorov at 28y or have Mateychuk/Svozil step into his role for much cheaper

So about a zero % chance this trade ends up as a anchor for Columbus

Since they are not competing for Lord Stanley next season, they didnt need to add IP not to force youngsters in. They could have played a lesser guy and kept their picks.

this cant be the main reason to justify the trade.

Its a win now move from a 59 pts team. Unusual at the very least.