flyfysher
Registered User
- Mar 21, 2012
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Value of: Carey Price brokered to Colorado or Edmonton
- Thread starter BigHabs
- Start date
Lau
just keep your goalie. He’s perfect exactly where he is. Montreal.
Laughing hard. How ridiculous. The Avs shouldn’t trade JT Compher for Price at 50%. Habs need to rebuild with Price as their goalie. Avs want nothing to do with one of the worst contracts in the NHL. Not even at 50%.
just keep your goalie. He’s perfect exactly where he is. Montreal.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Retention has not been done for that long and that amount yes. So it would be a historical move but the Habs are not doing a proper rebuild if we keep Price, Gallagher, Petry around so they have to consider and make tough decisions. Habs can get decent value in return for all 3 if they retain.
Retaining up to 50% for 3-5 years on all 3 players is about $12M. The same 3-5 years they would take to rebuild. Not saying this is ideal but that's how we let these guys guys chase a cup with another team and get some futures in return. In comparison, the Wild have $12M - $14M in buyout hits on Parise and Suter for the next 3 years.
A healthy Price can win a cup for the Oilers or Avs. It's their missing piece and if he comes at a $5.25M cap hit, there will no doubt be interest and not just with the Oilers and Avs IMO. It's basically how the Habs can move him for solid futures value and personally, I would not ask for any current youth player on any team in return. Picks and prospects not in the NHL
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
You've been all over Price's trade value as a non Habs fans over and over. You seem just as obsessive as the Habs are with trading him for futures by being this negative Nancy on it as well. Ridiculous narratives works two ways but don't laugh too hard or you will pee your pants!
Price at 50% retention will draw way more interest than you realize. Reality
Oilers and Avs are logical targets and it's not just the Habs fan base that are bringing this up. Both those teams are top heavy and need goalie upgrades to push them to the next level in the playoffs. Reality. Longer the Avs and Oilers go with goalie question marks or hoping for a "hot goalie in the playoffs", the more cup contending years are wasted and in a few years, you look back with regrets. You don't say no to a game changer in net like Price when he comes at a $5.25M cap hit.
If Price was a UFA this off season, he would easily get $5.25M for 3 or 4 years at age 34.
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Ararana
Registered User
You are out of your god damn mind. The only way I'd take Price in Colorado is if Montreal eats 50% for the duration of his contract and even then I'm not giving you much for him. Even at 50% retained his contract is going to be an anchor in 2-3 years. Byram? lulz.
He is Montreal's problem for a long time.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Hard to say but Price at 50% retention is worth more than what you see on HF boards. Wait for it, I do believe Price will be traded (when is the question) and we will retain. Then after he is with his new team, he is a star in net again.
You guys have to consider this BS that is being thrown at the Habs...
Habs go on a deep run at age 33 and fans say "Habs are nothing without Price"
vs
Habs offer him at 50% retention (when healthy) and he's not worth much.
Personally, I would retain up to 50% but my return is youth not in the NHL yet. The team trying to trade for Price will want to keep their current pieces in place and that's reasonable. So my strategy would be a 1st, Grade A, and Grade B. With the Oilers, that is 1st (20+), Holloway, and Lavoie.
Ararana
Registered User
He's just signed for too damn long. I'm not arguing with you that he, at this moment, is a good to great goaltender (not sure exactly what is going on with him off ice ATM). But that contract, even 50% retained, only holds value for 2-3 more years IMO. Then it become quite a burden, which I think should greatly affects the price of the return since you're asking a team to take on that burden.
I understand you're getting ridiculous lowball offers (welcome to HFBoards), but asking for Byram + + is equally ridiculous. Byram by himself is a nonstarter.
The honest to god truth here is Sakic already spent a 1st and Timmins for Kuemper and therefore has made his bed this season with a starting goaltender. He might go out and pickup a backup, but unless Kuemper has a season ending injury I highly doubt Sakic is in the market for a starter until the summer at the earliest.
The "cost" for a 3rd team to take on ~ $2.5m in dead cap for 4 1/2 years is going to be ubsurd.
Think multiple 1st round picks, and honestly, I doubt there's a team out there willing to do that.
Get a team to retain as a 3rd party for the balance of the current season? no problem, teams know what they're going to do with their retention slots / cap space generally for the rest of the year. Get a team to retain for next year? I can see that as well if the return is right and the team is in a big rebuild.
Get a team to retain for 4 full years? I just don't see it. It handcuffs the organization well beyond the "predictable" range... yes, Arizona did it with OEL, but that was to get rid of his $6.5m, not for a bonus draft pick.
That being said, the "play" with Price doesn't need to be that complicated. The consensus is that at $10.5m, he's got negative value. At $5.75m, he's got positive value.
Somewhere between $10.5m and $5.75m is a point where the Habs would say "we can do better without him". Let's say that "point" is $6.5m.
If you find a team willing to pay him more than $6.5m, then great, either retain less or get a draft pick for delivering "value".
If you find a team who values him at the exact same point you do, trade him for nothing.
If you can't find a team who values him at more than $6.5m (and he's willing to go to), then keep him.
As for where his "right" value is... I feel like Fleury is the only realistic comparable. Fleury coming off the Veznia, Price having carried his team through the playoffs.
Of course, Fleury's older, but only had 1 year left on his deal at $7m. Price at 50% retained has 4 years left on his deal at $5.75m. Fleury was traded for nothing. Price making $1.25m less should be worth more, but does have 4 years of uncertainty vs 1.
Think multiple 1st round picks, and honestly, I doubt there's a team out there willing to do that.
Get a team to retain as a 3rd party for the balance of the current season? no problem, teams know what they're going to do with their retention slots / cap space generally for the rest of the year. Get a team to retain for next year? I can see that as well if the return is right and the team is in a big rebuild.
Get a team to retain for 4 full years? I just don't see it. It handcuffs the organization well beyond the "predictable" range... yes, Arizona did it with OEL, but that was to get rid of his $6.5m, not for a bonus draft pick.
That being said, the "play" with Price doesn't need to be that complicated. The consensus is that at $10.5m, he's got negative value. At $5.75m, he's got positive value.
Somewhere between $10.5m and $5.75m is a point where the Habs would say "we can do better without him". Let's say that "point" is $6.5m.
If you find a team willing to pay him more than $6.5m, then great, either retain less or get a draft pick for delivering "value".
If you find a team who values him at the exact same point you do, trade him for nothing.
If you can't find a team who values him at more than $6.5m (and he's willing to go to), then keep him.
As for where his "right" value is... I feel like Fleury is the only realistic comparable. Fleury coming off the Veznia, Price having carried his team through the playoffs.
Of course, Fleury's older, but only had 1 year left on his deal at $7m. Price at 50% retained has 4 years left on his deal at $5.75m. Fleury was traded for nothing. Price making $1.25m less should be worth more, but does have 4 years of uncertainty vs 1.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Oilers have $7.7M on two guys right now (Smith and Keith) who are both older than Price in his last year of that deal. I get the concern but if Price was a UFA this summer, he easily gets a 3 or 4 year deal at $5.25M.
Up to the Oilers and Avs in the end and I feel they will be interested at Price at 50%. He gives them a real shot at a cup and it's not an automatic no cause he is signed till age 38
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
There will be and it will be the Habs retaining on Price and also taking a 1/2 year cap dump. Habs have to be willing to help the other team with their cap to make this work.
there is just one problem, the team trading for him doesn't get a guarantee, that price will have a hot streak in the next playoff run. price is streaky and if he is cold in the playoffs like for large parts of the last two regular seasons, he can easily also cost a series win. obviously this risk exists with basically any goalie.
the acquiring team will definitely have to deal with the rest of the term and the unretained cap hit of the price contract, regardless if he has anything left in the tank. if they additionally have to pay a heavy price for the retention (by montreal and/or a thrid pary), i just don't see a lot of interest. price hasn't played this season, had off-season surgery, is on leave for treating substance abuse. his great performances are a thing of the past. montreal fans obviously cherish this past. a nhl gm should rather consider the present and future.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
If you are looking for a guarantee in any trade, you should not make any trades at all.
Were the Oilers looking at a "guarantee" that Keith would not suck when they traded for him at the age of 38 with a cap hit of $5.5M? How about when they signed Smith for 2 years at $2.2M when he is 39/40 in those years?
. $7.7M on two players age 38/39 or more? 
If Price came with guaranties in a trade, his value would be much higher than what most of us are asking for. Reality. However some are asking for current youth in the NHL and that would not be my strategy personally
Kudo Shinichi
Registered User
- Apr 20, 2012
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Its not a hot streak. He elevates his game in the playoffs. He's a big-game performer and he's shown it at every level.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
It's absolutely BS when other fans play these cards. Hypocrites
Habs go on a deep run and most if not all fans say "Habs are nothing without Price". He's the only reason why you are in a cup final.
vs
Habs offer Price at 50% retention ($5.25M AAV) at age 34 and he's not worth the risk cause he is signed till 38.
Price on a cup contender with a good team D and an actual PP would be a game changer. Price gives those teams a real chance at a cup and most know it but most will not admit to it.... but they will if their team traded for him. The minute that happens, the narrative changes
so the team raised their game in the po? not only carey price?
with this argument you diminish the regular season results of price, but at the same time you diminish his playoff results.
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bucks_oil
Registered User
- Aug 25, 2005
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You've been all over Price's trade value as a non Habs fans over and over. You seem just as obsessive as the Habs are with trading him for futures by being this negative Nancy on it as well. Ridiculous narratives works two ways but don't laugh too hard or you will pee your pants!
Price at 50% retention will draw way more interest than you realize. Reality
Oilers and Avs are logical targets and it's not just the Habs fan base that are bringing this up. Both those teams are top heavy and need goalie upgrades to push them to the next level in the playoffs. Reality. Longer the Avs and Oilers go with goalie question marks or hoping for a "hot goalie in the playoffs", the more cup contending years are wasted and in a few years, you look back with regrets. You don't say no to a game changer in net like Price when he comes at a $5.25M cap hit.
If Price was a UFA this off season, he would easily get $5.25M for 3 or 4 years at age 34.
To the bolded... if he were UFA, maybe he gets $5M for 3 years... maybe.
But the GM gives up no assets for that. So that's the "UFA overpay since I spend no assets" salary. It stands to reason if a GM has to pay assets, that salary would not be viewed so positively, especially given the duration and the recent health issues. (Don't say LTIR... dipping into LTIR to replace him effectively means zero available for trade deadline additions)
So why would Edmonton or Avs trade guys as valuable long term as Byram or Broberg, let alone add a 1st?
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I'm personally not asking for either of Byram or Broberg but I am asking for a 1st, Grade A, and Grade B not in the NHL yet. Price at $5.25M is a completely different story than Price at $10.5M. Especially if the Habs take back 1/2 cap dumps as well.
If I was the Avs or Oilers fans, I would steer clear of trolling Price's value at 50%. Cause I bet you your GM might actually make that move and your comments are on record today for all to bounce forward at a later date
everybody, who knows just a little bit about statistics, will tell you, the bigger the sample size the more reliable are any prediction done with it. faking the sample size to get a fitting result is a method used by cheaters.
bucks_oil
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- Aug 25, 2005
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Sorry... what comments are you hoping to bounce forward? I haven't said Price is a bad goalie. I'm actually a HUGE fan and I even want him on Team Canada, I think his body of work earns that respect.
I'm saying only three things, and you can re-read it for comprehension purposes and tell me where you gather anything else:
1) $5M for a 34 year old goalie x 4 years and who just came out of a player support system for some career threatening health issues.... that's a huge risk
2) The price that a GM may pay for a goalie of Price's quality in UFA is irrelevant since there are no assets required to be paid. Adding assets would reduce the salary they would be willing to pay.
3) You aren't asking for Broberg, Byram... ok... that was someone else... my comments on that stand, even though I might have misattributed them to you.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
"Not worth it" type comments. I've seen this go both ways in the past but most who are on one side of the fence, are not considering both sides.
If the Habs (Molson/Gorton) are open to 50% retention, this is going to be a monster to talk about moving forward. Price will not want to stay during a rebuild and I have no doubt teams looking to win a cup and need a goalie will be open to it.
Personally, I rather see the Oilers get Price vs the Avs. Rather the Oilers bring the cup back to Canada and I think Price gives them that added edge in the playoffs. Price would not get as exposed as he normally does with the Habs cause the Oilers can actually score on the PP and sustain pressure on the offensive end. Price would be a star again. Bookmark this!
Kudo Shinichi
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- Apr 20, 2012
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What are you talking about? Price has a long sample size of great performance in big games.
pth2
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bucks_oil
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- Aug 25, 2005
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I don't disagree that Montreal retaining 50% is a huge ask. But I would imagine that during a rebuild, that cap space is of relatively little value.
I'd actually keep talking to you regarding a 1st + A prospect + B prospect... I wouldn't pay it, but I don't blame you for asking that as a starting point. I'd only go as far as a 1st + B+ prospect.
But it is a mute point for this year... we can't afford him anyway unless you take Koskinen and Turris.
