Value of: Carey Price brokered to Colorado or Edmonton

[ManofSteel55]

Oilers have $7.7M on two guys right now (Smith and Keith) who are both older than Price in his last year of that deal. I get the concern but if Price was a UFA this summer, he easily gets a 3 or 4 year deal at $5.25M.

Up to the Oilers and Avs in the end and I feel they will be interested at Price at 50%. He gives them a real shot at a cup and it's not an automatic no cause he is signed till age 38

Having two old guys makes it less appealing to bring in another.

If Price was a UFA this summer, teams would be getting him without giving up any assets at all. I think after Price plays a few games there will be interest. I wouldn't even be upset if the interest was from Edmonton. I just don't know what, uh...price...I would be happy with. Koskinen and Turris for money reasons is a must (both expiring this summer). Probably Edmonton's first, although I know a number of my fellow Oiler fans will hate that (I'm not sold on it either but know it is likely). After that? I wouldn't want to give up much more, but that's likely not enough incentive for Montreal to move him and eat so much salary cap.

 

[TBF1972]

What are you talking about? Price has a long sample size of great performance in big games.

everybody has their own beliefs. some believe in voodoo, others are a 100% percent sure, that the earth is flat. but if you use statistics as an argument, you should adhere to the scientific principal of the discipline 'statistics'.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't disagree that Montreal retaining 50% is a huge ask. But I would imagine that during a rebuild, that cap space is of relatively little value.

I'd actually keep talking to you regarding a 1st + A prospect + B prospect... I wouldn't pay it, but I don't blame you for asking that as a starting point. I'd only go as far as a 1st + B+ prospect.

But it is a mute point for this year... we can't afford him anyway unless you take Koskinen and Turris.

If the Habs decide to rebuild, Price will want out and the Habs can't move him without retention. Here is my platform on a trade to discuss and I think it's workable..

* Price (up to 50% retention)
for
* Koskinen (cap reasons)
* Turris or Smith (cap reasons... up to the Oilers to decide)
* Holloway (fringe grade A or Grade A type)
* Lavoie (Grade B or B+ type)
* 1st rounder (likely 20+)

Price needs to get healthy and if he does, it could be chatter at the deadline. This gives the Oilers a chance at a cup and the Habs are not asking for any current youth player. It's certainly workable. You might not like this added detail but we could ask for a conditional pick if the Oilers win a cup with Price

 

[Habs Halifax]

Having two old guys makes it less appealing to bring in another.

If Price was a UFA this summer, teams would be getting him without giving up any assets at all. I think after Price plays a few games there will be interest. I wouldn't even be upset if the interest was from Edmonton. I just don't know what, uh...price...I would be happy with. Koskinen and Turris for money reasons is a must (both expiring this summer). Probably Edmonton's first, although I know a number of my fellow Oiler fans will hate that (I'm not sold on it either but know it is likely). After that? I wouldn't want to give up much more, but that's likely not enough incentive for Montreal to move him and eat so much salary cap.

No doubt about it, Price needs to play hockey again. Right now, it's a bad time to evaluate his trade value. But if the Habs made the tough decision to retain up to 50%, there will no doubt be interest and the Oilers are one of them. What Price does from Jan-end of March is a huge factor though yes

Also no doubt in my mind that the Oilers fan base would welcome Price in open arms if that deal happened this trade deadline. McDavid and Drai would love to have him as well I am sure. With the Habs out of the playoffs, I would be cheering for the Oilers to win a cup cause I do feel they would have a very good shot at it. I don't see the Oilers management as worried about 34-38 as some of the fans are. I get the risks but the Habs can be also taking a risk of only getting futures back (not in the NHL yet) where they bust and we look like fools. That's a possibility too

 

[jfhabs]

shouldn't he play a game first?

Of course the Olympiques are next year.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

"Not worth it" type comments. I've seen this go both ways in the past but most who are on one side of the fence, are not considering both sides.

If the Habs (Molson/Gorton) are open to 50% retention, this is going to be a monster to talk about moving forward. Price will not want to stay during a rebuild and I have no doubt teams looking to win a cup and need a goalie will be open to it.

Personally, I rather see the Oilers get Price vs the Avs. Rather the Oilers bring the cup back to Canada and I think Price gives them that added edge in the playoffs. Price would not get as exposed as he normally does with the Habs cause the Oilers can actually score on the PP and sustain pressure on the offensive end. Price would be a star again. Bookmark this!

Just because the Habs are open to 50% retention doesn't mean that they're necessarily going to retain $5.25m for 4 years for free. If you want fair market value for Price at $5.25m, then add even half of the market value of all that retention, I struggle to see what I need to consider on the other side to make him worth that return. The name of the game in the cap era is finding cheap players who can out perform their cap hit, and this is the exact opposite of that.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Just because the Habs are open to 50% retention doesn't mean that they're necessarily going to retain $5.25m for 4 years for free. If you want fair market value for Price at $5.25m, then add even half of the market value of all that retention, I struggle to see what I need to consider on the other side to make him worth that return. The name of the game in the cap era is finding cheap players who can out perform their cap hit, and this is the exact opposite of that.

The other side of it is the Habs can't have Price drowning if we rebuild. So yeah, we retain up to 50% and my personal plan is to set a price as a late 1st (20+ range), Grade A and B prospect (not in the NHL yet).

When I look at the Oilers and Avs, I see Price being a game changer. And then I consider that these teams can't afford to trade any current youth on their roster at the moment. So yeah, it's going to be futures not in the NHL with a substantial retention and maybe we set up a condition that we get another pick if anybody wins a cup with Price.

Only way it works is for both sides to work hard at make each other as happy as possible. Habs will have to retain and take back 1/2 year cap dump to help the other team. Very reasonable if we want to move Price.

 

[bucks_oil]

If the Habs decide to rebuild, Price will want out and the Habs can't move him without retention. Here is my platform on a trade to discuss and I think it's workable..

* Price (up to 50% retention)
for
* Koskinen (cap reasons)
* Turris or Smith (cap reasons... up to the Oilers to decide)
* Holloway (fringe grade A or Grade A type)
* Lavoie (Grade B or B+ type)
* 1st rounder (likely 20+)

Price needs to get healthy and if he does, it could be chatter at the deadline. This gives the Oilers a chance at a cup and the Habs are not asking for any current youth player. It's certainly workable. You might not like this added detail but we could ask for a conditional pick if the Oilers win a cup with Price

Take out Holloway and we'd be agreed. Oilers MUST retain him as a low cost replacement for Yama or Pulju or GASP to have third line depth, otherwise we'll spin right out of our contention window without ever putting together the necessary depth. We need him to be our young Drury to our Sakic/Forsberg and we don't have time to wait for other prospects to mature.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Take out Holloway and we'd be agreed. Oilers MUST retain him as a low cost replacement for Yama or Pulju or GASP to have third line depth, otherwise we'll spin right out of our contention window without ever putting together the necessary depth. We need him to be our young Drury to our Sakic/Forsberg and we don't have time to wait for other prospects to mature.

Sorry but I respectfully decline. That was my low price and you tried to make it lower. Remember, my low price is much less than what other Habs fans are asking for.

A late 1st, Grade A, and Grade B is not a huge ask for Price at 50% retention. Consider this, Price as a pending UFA gets me a late 1st and Grade B easily.

Even with Holloway, Late 1st, and Lavoie, Habs could look like fools and it could be worse than the Roy trade. Holloway could be a top 6F or a bust. I value him but I'm no prospect dummy... I understand the risks of going after prospects not in the NHL yet.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

The other side of it is the Habs can't have Price drowning if we rebuild. So yeah, we retain up to 50% and my personal plan is to set a price as a late 1st (20+ range), Grade A and B prospect (not in the NHL yet).

When I look at the Oilers and Avs, I see Price being a game changer. And then I consider that these teams can't afford to trade any current youth on their roster at the moment. So yeah, it's going to be futures not in the NHL with a substantial retention and maybe we set up a condition that we get another pick if anybody wins a cup with Price.

Only way it works is for both sides to work hard at make each other as happy as possible. Habs will have to retain and take back 1/2 year cap dump to help the other team. Very reasonable if we want to move Price.

In a vacuum, that's not an unreasonable ask, but I still don't think it's worth it, at least for the Avs.

We just gave up a 1st + Timmins for Keumper before this season started. Yes, he's currently hurt, but he's still our guy for this season. And his injury normally wouldn't be a major issue, but Francouz is also injury plagued and out, and our third stringer isn't a legit NHLer, which makes the problem look worse than it is. But having a bad third stringer isn't a reason to give up significant assets for a new starter we don't desperately need.

And the Avs have a looming cap crunch coming, and are going to need as many good youngsters as they can get to fill in the holes that inevitably occur as role players get too expensive to keep. So, why give up a 1st + A + B prospect for Price instead of just signing someone in UFA? Does having an arguably better goalie really make up for the loss of young potential talent that we'll definitely need in the near future? Because, I'd rather have the better overall team, not just the best goalie on paper.

Also, is Price a game changer, or does he need to play behind a good team so he isn't exposed? Because you've made both claims in this thread, and I don't see how both can be true at the same time.

 

[bucks_oil]

Sorry but I respectfully decline. That was my low price and you tried to make it lower. Remember, my low price is much less than what other Habs fans are asking for.

A late 1st, Grade A, and Grade B is not a huge ask for Price at 50% retention. Consider this, Price as a pending UFA gets me a late 1st and Grade B easily.

Even with Holloway, Late 1st, and Lavoie, Habs could look like fools and it could be worse than the Roy trade. Holloway could be a top 6F or a bust. I value him but I'm no prospect dummy... I understand the risks of going after prospects not in the NHL yet.

1) No problem... we'll have to look for our goaltending elsewhere

2) I don't understand your last comment, Roy was 34 and Montreal was still a strong team as evidenced by their playoff appearances, including a semi-final in the next three years (with another Vezina winning goalie). The objectives of that trade were clearly different.

Here you are rebuilding and so the cap retention means nothing (except to make Price more tradable). Price has question marks around him which, to many, imply that perhaps his best years are behind him. I don't see what you have to "lose" here. Just optimize what you can get, but there is no reason to keep Price if you are rebuilding (which you clearly are). If that's not Edmonton that's fine, but I don't think you'll achieve your template, even with retention.

The closest analogue I can think of is more like Luongo. Vancouver retained less, but Lou didn't have the same question marks about this health, so let's call that equal. They received Markstrom (31 games experience) and Matthias (at the time a middle six forward).

 

[Flan the incredible]

Everything has a price. I'm sure it could be done, but would cost a LOT.

The thing is, a healthy (big if) Carey Price at 50% fits on a whole lot of teams that desperately need solid goaltending, even moreso playoff goaltending.
If I was in Montreal's GM shoes, I might even consider retaining 50% myself and add the middleman only if it helps the deal get done (depends on recapture penalty though).

5M for 5 years is a long time but imo a goalie at 5-6M + the futures that would be received would be worth more to Montreal in the long run than Carey Price at 10M and would block around the same on the cap. Montreal is going nowhere in the next few years, and there's no superstar to sign or anything really...

And keeping Price around just locks that goalie position, immobilizing Montreal's ability to look for a decent replacement for the future.

I dont see a return good enough to eat 25 mill. I would think he comes backs and plays for a year or two and gets his value up then he gets moved with 3 yrs on his contract. If he doesn't return to form I feel like he ends up on LTIR for the rest of his career. Not sure what a buyout looks like at that point but JG uses them a lot.

They should definitely blow it up and grab as many picks on prospects they can get I think Price is the last piece to be moved though.

Tough few years ahead for Habs fans.

 

[Flan the incredible]

Retention has not been done for that long and that amount yes. So it would be a historical move but the Habs are not doing a proper rebuild if we keep Price, Gallagher, Petry around so they have to consider and make tough decisions. Habs can get decent value in return for all 3 if they retain.

Retaining up to 50% for 3-5 years on all 3 players is about $12M. The same 3-5 years they would take to rebuild. Not saying this is ideal but that's how we let these guys guys chase a cup with another team and get some futures in return. In comparison, the Wild have $12M - $14M in buyout hits on Parise and Suter for the next 3 years.

A healthy Price can win a cup for the Oilers or Avs. It's their missing piece and if he comes at a $5.25M cap hit, there will no doubt be interest and not just with the Oilers and Avs IMO. It's basically how the Habs can move him for solid futures value and personally, I would not ask for any current youth player on any team in return. Picks and prospects not in the NHL

I dont think they get a return good enough to warrant eating that much money. Price has been great in the playoffs the last 2 years but pretty meh in 3 of the last 4 regular seasons. It's a pretty big gamble for those teams to give up big assets for a goalie 34 years old with the issues he has. It could turn out great for the acquiring team but if it goes bad that GM could be fired real quick. Not sure someone takes that gamble. Think they go shorter contracts for an acquired goalie. The market has a few options too.

 

[Drake1588]

I think it's going to require burning off another two to three years on that contract before a trade with retention has any attraction to both sides. Unbelievably, that contract will only be three years done with another five to go at the end of this season. The actual dollars decline hard after next season (when he is due to make $13M actual dollars, with $11M in signing bonuses) but the cap hit remains a bear.

With two or three years left, maybe then there will be mutual interest, assuming of course that he's playing well by that point. He's going to be a Hab for a while longer.

It has to make sense to both sides. Right now, plenty of teams would like him at a $5M cap hit. Yet five years is a really long time to retain $5M against the cap, and I just don't think the Canadiens are going to do it. You sign contracts like this, and you're married to a guy through the good times and bad.

EDIT: For corrections on the contract.

 

[abo9]

I dont see a return good enough to eat 25 mill. I would think he comes backs and plays for a year or two and gets his value up then he gets moved with 3 yrs on his contract. If he doesn't return to form I feel like he ends up on LTIR for the rest of his career. Not sure what a buyout looks like at that point but JG uses them a lot.

They should definitely blow it up and grab as many picks on prospects they can get I think Price is the last piece to be moved though.

Tough few years ahead for Habs fans.

"tough few years ahead" sucks like crazy because it's already been 5 years of garbage and 20 years of mediocrity (woth a few good season 10-15 years ago).

I hope Gorton knows what he's doing.

edit: as for Price... he's the bigger piece to move, but guys like Gallagher and Petry are gonna need to move soon as well

 

[Flan the incredible]

"tough few years ahead" sucks like crazy because it's already been 5 years of garbage and 20 years of mediocrity (woth a few good season 10-15 years ago).

I hope Gorton knows what he's doing.

edit: as for Price... he's the bigger piece to move, but guys like Gallagher and Petry are gonna need to move soon as well

You got your finals run at least. Could be worse could be a Sabres fan....

I would think JG follows the Rangers blueprint. Try to trade off Toffoli, Dvorak, Armia and Savard this deadline for picks and prospects. In the offseason try to move Gallagher, Petry and Anderson.

JG's strength is drafting especially later 1st round picks. The kappo and Laf picks were no brainers but Schneider, Chytil, KAM and Nils were all solid picks. Kravtsov is a decent pick too if he wasn't a rich spoiled entitled brat. Its a shame most Ranger fans wanted him on the team to start the season but Drury wanted to keep Hajek from being lost on waivers.

Hated the McDonough/Miller trade when it happened but he robbed Edmonton in the Strome trade. Maybe he got lucky.

Either way he is better then what you had. Maybe the lotto falls your way and its a bit quicker of a rebuild.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I just see since Gorton got to Montreal maybe trying to move Price. Everyone saying Price at 5mill multiple times.

I was wondering if a bottom team looking to pick up a pick would do it. Yes for multiple years but maybe like a 2nd while the Habs get the 1st part of the big trade.

Montreal retains 35%. 3rd team retains 35% of the 7,350,000. Bringing it to a total of 4,777,500.

Montreal

1st
Kuemper
Prospect

Or


1st
Koskinen
Prospect


3rd team

2nd round pick + Prospect


Colorado or Edmonton

Price at 4,777,500


I know there was a thread earlier about it being a rumor. I not saying this could happen. Just going on the hunch of LeBrun saying these two who are cup favorites could really use him. They only have the glaring need in net for the most part.

Not even saying it'd happen but they idea of Price brokered to them a number that works is intriguing.

3 sides can win out of this.

If both Montreal and the 2nd team are retaining the same amount of salary, why does Montreal get way better assets?

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

I think if Price comeback in January and get some games in shape , he will probably go in the olympics . If he does well there , after the olympic I could see a team with 50% retention trading for him.

It's all about if he can comeback healthy. He can still give 2-3 years and the last season will probably be LITR.

 

[frapp10]

If the Oilers or Avalanche were to get Price and he plays like he has throughout his entire career in the playoffs and international play, they would win the cup

 

[BigHabs]

If both Montreal and the 2nd team are retaining the same amount of salary, why does Montreal get way better assets?

Montreal is retaining 35% of 10.5mill. 2nd team is retaining 35% of 7mill. See maybe a team would take a 2nd and a prospect eating around 2.4mill in cap. Really Buffalo seems to be the only team potentially able to do it. As their core will be ready in 3-4yrs as the final year of salary retention will be ending. Plus they have tons of cap flexibility.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I dont think they get a return good enough to warrant eating that much money. Price has been great in the playoffs the last 2 years but pretty meh in 3 of the last 4 regular seasons. It's a pretty big gamble for those teams to give up big assets for a goalie 34 years old with the issues he has. It could turn out great for the acquiring team but if it goes bad that GM could be fired real quick. Not sure someone takes that gamble. Think they go shorter contracts for an acquired goalie. The market has a few options too.

Risks apply two ways.
* Team acquiring Price and they don't get what they believe they get.
vs
* Habs trade Price for futures that bust while Price wins a cup with his new team and we are paying half his salary

Habs can't rebuild properly with Price still around IMO. So yeah, it would be a very tough decision cause a late 1st, Grade A, Grade B package could all bust

 

[Flan the incredible]

Risks apply two ways.
* Team acquiring Price and they don't get what they believe they get.
vs
* Habs trade Price for futures that bust while Price wins a cup with his new team and we are paying half his salary

Habs can't rebuild properly with Price still around IMO. So yeah, it would be a very tough decision cause a late 1st, Grade A, Grade B package could all bust

I agree with you 100% and thats why I don't think he is going anywhere for at least a year maybe two. When both parties have that much risk trades more than likely dont happen.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If the Habs decide to rebuild, Price will want out and the Habs can't move him without retention. Here is my platform on a trade to discuss and I think it's workable..

* Price (up to 50% retention)
for
* Koskinen (cap reasons)
* Turris or Smith (cap reasons... up to the Oilers to decide)
* Holloway (fringe grade A or Grade A type)
* Lavoie (Grade B or B+ type)
* 1st rounder (likely 20+)

Price needs to get healthy and if he does, it could be chatter at the deadline. This gives the Oilers a chance at a cup and the Habs are not asking for any current youth player. It's certainly workable. You might not like this added detail but we could ask for a conditional pick if the Oilers win a cup with Price

I'm with you on value until Holloway. I don't think a grade A prospect is included here. A prospect with the equivalent value of a 2nd round pick maybe. From Edmonton that could be Samurokov or Savoie maybe. Not Holloway though.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If the Oilers or Avalanche were to get Price and he plays like he has throughout his entire career in the playoffs and international play, they would win the cup

Playoffs numbers are unreal and some of his best work occurred at age 33... last year! Most know the impact a healthy Price can provide but lets face it, some fans want us to retain 50% and also buy for low price. We are not fools

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm with you on value until Holloway. I don't think a grade A prospect is included here. A prospect with the equivalent value of a 2nd round pick maybe. From Edmonton that could be Samurokov or Savoie maybe. Not Holloway though.

Fair. I was trying to be respectful towards Holloway's value to the Oilers. I recall someone else saying take Holloway out and you got a deal. A late 1st and Lavoie for Price at 50% retention. What a joke that would be for the Habs.

I think a deal is workable between the Oilers and Habs. And we are identifying the Oilers cause Habs fans know that if we trade Price, it could be another Roy situation. So if someone else is going to win a cup with Price, I would be OK if that was the Oilers.

What futures can we agree on is the question. I value Savoie but the Habs already have two undersized young guys with Caufield and Farrell who is also doing very well in the NCAA like Savoie. My strategy is not to avoid smaller players but we need to bring in guys that won't be pushed around.