Confirmed Trade: [CAR/PIT] Jake Guentzel (25% retained), Ty Smith for Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, 2024 cond. 1st, 2024 cond. 5th

[Ryder71]

It was a gut punch because many refused to believe what posters were telling them all along, that rentals don't historically return top prospects, regardless what twitter-verse was saying.

This is a good return for the Pens for a rental. Historically, rentals return a late 1st + a prospect of Pono/Koivunen's caliber. Pens got a mid-2nd (or late 1st if Canes make SCF), 2 good prospects that are close to NHL ready, another prospect, and a decent NHLr. I get that it's "quantity over quality", but rentals don't historically return quality like some were asking.

In the past, the Canes have given up guys similar to Koivunen/Pono like Nic Roy and Eetu Luostarinen in deals and fans weren't impressed because they didn't have the big names, but in the end, those players ended up being steals for the teams that got them.

But when you're told Morrow, Blake and you hear it in several places I mean, pretty disappointing for journalist to be that careless and give out inaccurate info. That said I like the Fin. Just wish I had more to go on. To me he's the best player/upside in the deal. Don't know if that in and of itself is saying much however.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

But when you're told Morrow, Blake and you hear it in several places I mean, pretty disappointing for journalist to be that careless and give out inaccurate info. That said I like the Fin. Just wish I had more to go on. To me he's the best player/upside in the deal. Don't know if that in and of itself is saying much however.

I don't know which journalists stated that and how much insider info they had, but I agree it's careless of them to state that if they don't have verifiable information.

It's a bit of confirmation bias going on though. A few days back, fans were saying they want and expect top prospects like Nikishin (most knew that wasn't going to happen), Morrow, Nadeau, etc... People on twitter feed off of that and then fans feel their own wants are justified because others on twitter align with those views.

Not blaming anyone, we all do it. We seek out information that confirms our own views and ignore those that don't align with it.

Some fans had their mind made up days ago that Guentzel was going to break the mold of a rental and get a return that historically doesn't happen. There was no changing that for some.

That said, I still think this is one of the better returns, in totality, for a rental.

 

[Ryder71]

I don't know which journalists stated that and how much insider info they had, but I agree it's careless of them to state that if they don't have verifiable information.

It's a bit of confirmation bias going on though. A few days back, fans were saying they want and expect top prospects like Nikishin (most knew that wasn't going to happen), Morrow, Nadeau, etc... People on twitter feed off of that and then fans feel their own wants are justified because others on twitter align with those views.

Not blaming anyone, we all do it. We seek out information that confirms our own views and ignore those that don't align with it.

Some fans had their mind made up days ago that Guentzel was going to break the mold of a rental and get a return that historically doesn't happen. There was no changing that for some.

That said, I still think this is one of the better returns, in totality, for a rental.

Well, we got five pieces, if two of those five workout, not too bad. Just wish there was more info on those three prospects.

 

[Ryder71]

This is a good return for a rental. Rentals almost always return a late 1st and "meh" prospect.

Don't let the fact that some Pens fans had dreams of Nikishin, Morrow, or Nadeau; the type of prospects who almost never get traded for rentals.

Koivunen and Pono are good prospects. Bunting is a good NHLr worth his contract.

TBH I was more enamored with Blake than Morrow. Maybe I'm spoiled with the puck moving defensemen we've had but Blake would have been a home run for us IMO. And thinking we'd also get Morrow. I almost fell over. Now I've just crashed back to reality.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

This trade reminds me of the rangers trade with Tampa a few years ago.

McDonagh+JTM for Hajek/Names/Howden/1st.

Quantity over Quality.

Trade turned out horrendous for NYR, Perrault is the last piece NYR has on that trade tree since the first rounder was Lundkvist which obviously got flipped to Dallas last year or was that the one in the Tarasenko trade?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Something that does spook me a little with sending Smith to Carolina is that while I think very little of him, Carolina is a super smart organization that has historically found use for not great but niche players. I wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee, but I could absolutely see them turning Smith into a useful bottom pair PP specialist.

Anyway, in the end I think this deal largely hinges on how Koivunen progresses. I think Ponomarev looks like a good 3C option going forward, with being NHL ready right now. I also think Bunting is a solid top-9 guy. But I really think they need to hit on Koivunen as a top-6 guy for this deal to work out for the Penguins. Purely from looking at his stats, I feel like he absolutely could be that, but a lot of the trade hinges on him.

I understand why Dubas cast a wider net and tried to get 3 B prospects (or 2 B prospects and whatever you’d consider Lucius) over 1 stronger prospect, but when you’re trading a Jake Guentzel caliber guy, you really need to get a notable player in the long run for him. And while it’s easy to look at Wheeler’s prospect pool rankings and say that they should have picked just Morrow over Koivunen, Ponomarev and Lucius (if it was an option), it’s not like that’s a guaranteed way to get a great guy long term. Case in point: the Stone for Brannstrom trade.

 

[Wattsburgh]

I’m not even sure this trade would get approved in NHL 24.

The Penguins can’t win games. They can’t buy. And now we know they can’t sell. Just get it over with FSG. We all know you want two Boston teams. F@ckin losers.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This trade reminds me of the rangers trade with Tampa a few years ago.

McDonagh+JTM for Hajek/Names/Howden/1st.

Quantity over Quality.

This deal seems similar to the rental Hall trade from a few years back. That was Bahl, Merkley, Schnarr and a 1st for Hall, but Hall was traded earlier in the season.

I don’t know that Koivunen is equal to Bahl, I remember Bahl was crazy hyped up at that point, but that trade followed the same mold of “multiple B prospects rather than 1 top prospect”.

 

[Zbynek]

I’m not even sure this trade would get approved in NHL 24.

The Penguins can’t win games. They can’t buy. And now we know they can’t sell. Just get it over with FSG. We all know you want two Boston teams. F@ckin losers.

Dubas was the perfect little FSG minion in retrospect.

 

[molon labe]

Only thing is that the deal feels like it should have absolutely included the first. You're losing 20 ish draft spots on that 2nd and the condition is ridiculous.

Outside of that - it's all arguments over prospects and we went with quantity. Hard to really argue that when we actually open and look at the barren cupboard. Everyone dunking on Lucius and he's seemingly a talented scorer at 19 so whatever.

Can't call this victory but I can't go as far as the instant 'fleeced!' reactions either.

 

[ijuka]

Wow, the Penguins got fleeced

 

[Mr Jeff Jimerson]

Pens got fleeced.

And that's a straight up fact.

 

[SnS]

I don’t think this is as terrible as some posters are posting.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don’t think this is as terrible as some posters are posting.

It’s because the Canes didn’t give up any sexy prospect names that people know of, so therefore the trade is automatically bad.

No matter Canes fans saying it’s a good haul and the prospects they got are good. Not Nadeau or Morrow good, but good.

 

[SnS]

It’s because the Canes didn’t give up any sexy prospect names that people know of, so therefore the trade is automatically bad.

Yeah, I can see that being the reason. I think the deal is solid, at least on the frontline of it for both teams.

 

[BB88]

I don’t understand how anyone says anything else than what a boring return for Pens. Guentzel was supposed to be the #1 trade target

All the Pens fans were asking for double than that in their comments

Carolina did great

 

[Zbynek]

It’s because the Canes didn’t give up any sexy prospect names that people know of, so therefore the trade is automatically bad.

No matter Canes fans saying it’s a good haul and the prospects they got are good. Not Nadeau or Morrow good, but good.

Jake was Pittsburgh's biggest trade piece since...wait for it...Jaromir Jagr.

So uhh yeah, you expect to at least get a guaranteed 1st round pick, and a bonified prospect to bolster one of the worst prospect pools in the league.

So when you get neither, that's pretty bad

 

[Empoleon8771]

Jake was Pittsburgh's biggest trade piece since...wait for it...Jaromir Jagr.

So uhh yeah, you expect to at least get a guaranteed 1st round pick, and a bonified prospect for one of the worst prospect pools in the league.

So when you get neither, that's pretty bad

This trade is basically the same as the Taylor Hall trade from 2020, just with a conditional 1st instead of a guaranteed 1st. And that can be rationalized because Hall was traded with a half season left (well, intended half season before COVID).

Is it a great return? Of course not. But it’s a solid deal that aligns well with the few other comparable guys to Guentzel that have been traded in the past few years. I wouldn’t give it more than like a C or C+ for Pittsburgh, but anyone saying they were “fleeced” is just wrong.

It’s only a bad deal for Pittsburgh if you had unreasonable expectations for Guentzel in the first place, like I and other Penguins fans had.

 

[molon labe]

I don’t understand how anyone says anything else than what a boring return for Pens. Guentzel was supposed to be the #1 trade target

All the Pens fans were asking for double than that in their comments

Carolina did great

Asking for double and receiving a quarter is par for the course on HF.

I don't think we did that bad. The conditional first is the worst part imo.

I'm of a less popular opinion with regard to prospects on this board though. So many prospects get uber hyped every.single.year here (goes with the territory) that I understand an angle of 'quantity' in that regard. As put on the Pens board - you couldn't touch Poulin just a couple seasons ago and Jake was a nobody before he was Jake. So, just like the draft where studs go late (Jake and Letang both third rounders), sometimes it's best to land 2 B prospects versus 1 A prospect. Time will tell.

With regard to the Pens fans. This is the first time we've been sellers in two decades. Is what it is. And 90% of this board doesn't know prospects from their own anus - 99% of social media....so everything should be taken in context. What some wanted and what was being offered were always different things.

 

[Brent Burns]

Trades and HF users’ overreaction you can find a better combo

 

[Zbynek]

The conditional pick is really, really bad on this. Canes have to make the SCF for it to be a 1st, and if they don't, its Philly's 2nd - a team currently sitting in a playoff spot.

If anyone can ever point me to a trade historically where quantity over quality won out, maybe that can make me feel better, because right now it feels like Dubas f***ing blew it

 

[Giskard]

If anyone can ever point me to a trade historically where quantity over quality won out, maybe that can make me feel better, because right now it feels like Dubas f***ing blew it

Jaromir Jagr to WSH .. oh wait

 

[Empoleon8771]

The conditional pick is really, really bad on this. Canes have to make the SCF for it to be a 1st, and if they don't, its Philly's 2nd - a team currently sitting in a playoff spot.

If anyone can ever point me to a trade historically where quantity over quality won out, maybe that can make me feel better, because right now it feels like Dubas f***ing blew it

I can think of an obvious one where targeting quality over quantity didn’t work out: the Mark Stone trade. Ottawa did a sign and trade with Stone to Vegas for basically just Brannstrom, only for Brannstrom to end up mostly a dud at the NHL level. They gave up one of the best wingers in hockey in a sign and trade deal for a guy who ended up a depth defenseman.

All prospects are lottery tickets. It wouldn’t be surprising at all of Koivunen ends up better than Morrow in the future, nor would it be surprising if Morrow is the next Adam Fox.

 

[ijuka]

It’s because the Canes didn’t give up any sexy prospect names that people know of, so therefore the trade is automatically bad.

No matter Canes fans saying it’s a good haul and the prospects they got are good. Not Nadeau or Morrow good, but good.

Poor condition on the 1st and quantity over quality on the assets. That they couldn't get a proper 1st for Guentzel is terrible however you spin it.

Quantity over quality is done on the trade proposal forum where people want their team to get a star player in return for some random junk they have lying around, but there's a good reason it's not actually done in NHL. Well, except in this trade by Dubas.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Poor condition on the 1st and quantity over quality on the assets. That they couldn't get a proper 1st for Guentzel is terrible however you spin it.

All draft picks are lottery tickets. For a team with a shit prospect pool, gambling on 2 B prospects over 1 A prospect makes sense.

Just like with Mark Stone, if you trade Guentzel for 1 guy and he busts, you get nothing long term. Casting a wider net may have a lower upside, but it makes that disaster scenario less likely.