Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR/MTL] Habs accept Kotkaniemi offer sheet (1 year, $6.1M), 2022 1st, 2022 3rd [Part III]

[Twisted Sinister]

Ding ding ding, wake up call, draft mistakes happen.

I was and I'm still a big KK fan since his draft, but gotta agree that he's not an impressive player so far (if you've seen him play more than 2-3 games actually)

He's still in that "he's got potential" phase. He hasn't been world-beating but it would be imprudent to call him a bust yet.

 

[japhi]

I don't get this sentiment. What comes after the OS is far more interesting than the OS itself. Why would we stop talking about it as the games start playing? If he lights it up it's a brilliant move, if he struggles that would be interesting as well.

No reason for this discussion to go away.

 

[BusQuets]

imagine using your 3rd overall pick on a complete bust. While other teams used that pick to land potential franchise-changing talents like Heiskanen, Dach, stuetzle etc.

I guess it’s not surprising that habs fans are still desperately trying to convince everyone that Kotkaniemi sucks.

Lol what has Dach and Stuetzle changed?

 

[PromisedLand]

so whats the game plan for the canes? are they expecting KK to sign a long term deal around the same amount?

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

so whats the game plan for the canes? are they expecting KK to sign a long term deal around the same amount?

We’ll have to see how the year plays out but I think the idea is something in the 4 x 4 range.

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

Watch KK hit 60 points and then balk at the supposed 4 x 4 extension deal.

 

[Hunter368]

Watch KK hit 60 points and then balk at the supposed 4 x 4 extension deal.

“projected 60 point season” lands a young player nearly 8x8……why would KK accept 4x4 after actually scoring 60 points?

 

[bleedgreen]

If JK hits 60 pts the Canes won’t have any issue giving him the six million. Neither would anyone else.

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

“projected 60 point season” lands a young player nearly 8x8……why would KK accept 4x4 after actually scoring 60 points?

Because of the supposed handsh.... you know what? Forget about it!

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Based on last two practices, looks like he’s on a line with Aho and Necas. Will probably change 10 times over the first few months though.

 

[Scintillating10]

Habs can offer sheet Necas now. Suzuki signed.

 

[CupInSIX]

Watch KK hit 60 points and then balk at the supposed 4 x 4 extension deal.

"haha stupid Canes he's gonna hit 60 points"

 

[tarheelhockey]

Man it would really suck for us if he absolutely lit it up and forced us to pay him like a star. I don't think we would ever recover.

 

[Chrispy]

Habs can offer sheet Necas now. Suzuki signed.

Keep in mind, this year has an $81.5M cap. Assuming no change for 22-23, Carolina currently has $22.2M in cap space available for next year (including Gardiner if he returns from surgery.)

Ask yourself what you would need to offer Necas to get him out of Carolina given the cap space available?

Also keep in mind that this year, going above $8.22M means 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

 

[japhi]

Man it would really suck for us if he absolutely lit it up and forced us to pay him like a star. I don't think we would ever recover.

While I agree this would be a good problem to have, I think the ideal scenario for the Canes is that he takes the next step - consistent top 9 forward - without fully breaking out.

 

[McJedi]

Watch KK hit 60 points and then balk at the supposed 4 x 4 extension deal.

If he hits 60 points, that’s called a first world problem for Carolina. Think they’ll be ok having that dilemma.

 

[Incubajerks]

Habs can offer sheet Necas now. Suzuki signed.

pffff, still salty???

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Habs can offer sheet Necas now. Suzuki signed.

Takes two to tango

 

[spockBokk]

Habs can offer sheet Necas now. Suzuki signed.

With what cap space?

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Habs can offer sheet Necas now. Suzuki signed.

Yes… Habs should definitely spend a lot of money draft capital on a winger. That’s what they need desperately. They are swimming and C and D so no need to try to improve that at all…

 

[admiralcadillac]

Wish him luck, I liked him as a player

 

[Husqvarna]

He's still in that "he's got potential" phase. He hasn't been world-beating but it would be imprudent to call him a bust yet.

Well, have the Hurricanes even played a game yet?!

No.

So what are you even cryin' like babies at Montreal - watch out when the Finland army o' Carolina ... marches on.

 

[Husqvarna]

That Dio chap doin' it boogie woogie-style in his (rather) youth like a young Kotkaniemi will do. Hell Yeah!

Carolina rocks around.

 

[Husqvarna]

Takes two to tango

Sorry 'bout that mr: but there's only two countries in the world who knows real tango: Argentina ... and Finland.

 

[LakeLivin]

He's still in that "he's got potential" phase. He hasn't been world-beating but it would be imprudent to call him a bust yet.

Exactly. And from the Canes perspective I've got to believe that a good part of Kk's $6m salary this year is actually a bet on that potential. Given what we've seen from the Canes combination of analytics and scouting since Dundon put together the Committee, I'm ok with the risk/ reward potential of the deal.

so whats the game plan for the canes? are they expecting KK to sign a long term deal around the same amount?

Unless KK has an absolute MONSTER season I don't see the Canes making him a $6m qualifying offer next year. Even if he breaks through and has a big year, there's always the chance that it's a blip and the Canes will want to see it sustained before offering that kind of contract.

My guess is that the conversation between the Canes and KK went something like this:

Waddell: How much do you want out of Montreal?
KK: The relationship is pretty bad right now, I really want out.
Waddell: If Bergevin does trade you, how much input will you have in where you end up?
KK: None at all.
Waddell: We've got a young team that looks like it will be a Cup contender for a while. And we've got a coach that guys absolutely love to play for. Would you rather end up in Carolina or are you willing to take your chances on whatever team Bergevin might trade you to?
KK: Well geez Don, if I had my druthers I'd sure rather play for Carolina than risk ending up in Buffalo or Anaheim! [sorry Sabres and Ducks fans]
Waddell: Would you agree that a $3m / 1 year contract for next season would be fair-to-generous?
KK: Yeah, I can't really argue with that.
Waddell: What if we do this. In order to get you out of Montreal we'll get you a $6m contract for next year. In return, you give us your word that you'll forego the official qualifying floor this contract sets when we negotiate your next one. You also agree to "credit" us that extra $3m towards your next contract. We know that's not binding and we're putting ourselves at risk. But we have faith in you and if you give us your word we value you enough to take that risk. Is that something you'd be interested in?
KK: That sounds great. Let's do it!

Obviously pure speculation on my part. And yes, there would be 2 types of risk involved for the Canes, one if KK doesn't develop as the Canes think he will, and the other if KK reneges on the "handshake deal". But I'm sure the Committee did the math, and they felt the potential reward outweighs the risks.