Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR/MTL] Habs accept Kotkaniemi offer sheet (1 year, $6.1M), 2022 1st, 2022 3rd [Part II]

[Jeune Poulet]

It’s an absolutely realistic possibility, and one that has been talked about by the ‘insiders’. It may not happen but it’s definitely a reasonable possibility on the negotiations.

You think it's reasonable possibility that a player agent and his young, barely established client to forsake a unique UFA status and leave a considerable amount of money on the table that they are entitled to ? To sign a friendly deal to stay in... North Carolina?

Do you believe unicorns are a reasonable possibility too?

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

You think it's reasonable possibility that a player agent and his young, barely established client to forsake a unique UFA status and leave a considerable amount of money on the table that they are entitled to ? To sign a friendly deal to stay in... North Carolina?

Do you believe unicorns are a reasonable possibility too?

Its already been reported that the Canes very well may have a handshake agreement with KK on a reasonable extension that would be considerably less than the $6.1 AAV…. So yes, I believe that’s a possibility

 

[tarheelhockey]

You think it's reasonable possibility that a player agent and his young, barely established client to forsake a unique UFA status and leave a considerable amount of money on the table that they are entitled to ? To sign a friendly deal to stay in... North Carolina?

Do you believe unicorns are a reasonable possibility too?

What exactly about North Carolina makes that situation different than any other place where this might occur? Is it the awful weather, high taxes, low quality of life, absence of privacy, lack of a good young NHL team?

 

[Sempiternal]

Kotkaniemi is going to be a great steal!

 

[Jeune Poulet]

What exactly about North Carolina makes that situation different than any other place where this might occur?

It's not exactly on most free agent's wishlist. There are many markets considered more attractive in the NHL.

Doesn't mean people refuse to play there. But there isn't one single young NHLer who is going to take a paycut telling themselves "It's tough leaving all those millions on the table but it's worth it, just to enjoy Raleigh".

 

[Not The One]

I posted this on the Habs board but I may as well post it here too. Here is a comparison of KK and Evans (our rookie 4th line center) during the regular season.

Last year during the regular season at 5vs5:

KK: 1.37 pts/60 min - Playing with Toffoli, Drouin, Anderson
Evans: 1.31 pts/60 min - On the 4th line

On special teams:

KK: 106 minutes on the PP, 4 points
Evans: 3 minutes on the PP, 0 points

KK: 1 minute on the PK, 0 points
Evans: 85 minutes on the PK, 2 points

Faceoffs taken by zone (OZ/NZ/DZ):

KK: 236/183/130
Evans: 100/136/169

Basically KK even got outplayed by Jake Evans. But I'm sure that's totally the Habs' fault as well he'll earn every cent of his 6 million this year.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It's not exactly on most free agent's wishlist. There are many markets considered more attractive in the NHL.

Doesn't mean people refuse to play there. But there isn't one single young NHLer who is going to take a paycut telling themselves "It's tough leaving all those millions on the table but it's worth it, just to enjoy Raleigh".

We most definitely have had players take team-friendly deals to play here. And a bunch more have retired here rather than live anywhere else. You seem to be painting with an incredibly broad brush about what lifestyles are desirable.

There's a reason people are moving here by the busload, it's a great place to live and an even better place to have summers free.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

It's not exactly on most free agent's wishlist. There are many markets considered more attractive in the NHL.

Doesn't mean people refuse to play there. But there isn't one single young NHLer who is going to take a paycut telling themselves "It's tough leaving all those millions on the table but it's worth it, just to enjoy Raleigh".

Pretty big leap from "not the most desirable market" to "no young NHL'er will ever take a paycut to stay there ".

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I posted this on the Habs board but I may as well post it here too. Here is a comparison of KK and Evans (our rookie 4th line center) during the regular season.

Last year during the regular season at 5vs5:

KK: 1.37 pts/60 min - Playing with Toffoli, Drouin, Anderson
Evans: 1.31 pts/60 min - On the 4th line

On special teams:

KK: 106 minutes on the PP, 4 points
Evans: 3 minutes on the PP, 0 points

KK: 1 minute on the PK, 0 points
Evans: 85 minutes on the PK, 2 points

Faceoffs taken by zone (OZ/NZ/DZ):

KK: 236/183/130
Evans: 100/136/169

Basically KK even got outplayed by Jake Evans. But I'm sure that's totally the Habs' fault as well he'll earn every cent of his 6 million this year.

This is an incomplete picture of KK’s performance last season.

He played 2/3rds of his ice time with some variation of the 3 wingers you mentioned. 289 5v5 minutes werent with the three wingers.

In fairness KK did have a 4% higher O zone face-off percentage.

also where are you getting these FOs numbers
5v5 219/208/174
ES 228 / 213/175
All 307/227/182

kk didn’t greatly outplay him in xGF% of HDGF% but lets look at a possible reason why.

if you believe in JFresh’s player pages he did get a 61% in quality of competition. Im pretty sure that is better than Evans’ QoC. So not all numbers are equal but at least paint an accurate picture not cherry pick.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

You think it's reasonable possibility that a player agent and his young, barely established client to forsake a unique UFA status and leave a considerable amount of money on the table that they are entitled to ? To sign a friendly deal to stay in... North Carolina?

Do you believe unicorns are a reasonable possibility too?

If KK had a good year then the Canes will sign him to a contract for good money. If he doesn’t and the Canes don’t qualify him why would some other team sign him to ‘considerable money’ that he wouldn’t be getting from Carolina?

 

[Burke the Legend]

We most definitely have had players take team-friendly deals to play here. And a bunch more have retired here rather than live anywhere else. You seem to be painting with an incredibly broad brush about what lifestyles are desirable.

There's a reason people are moving here by the busload, it's a great place to live and an even better place to have summers free.

Kotkaniemi is really holding all the cards here because of situation.

If he is still playing poorly and on his 20-30 pts pace while looking lost then yeah he takes some 4x4 extension the Canes offer in January. Still basically being overpaid for "potential" but gets term and guaranteed $ in the bank.

If he is actually starting to break out, which the Canes believe will happen (Habs not so sure), then why would he sign a deal?? He has nothing to lose by waiting until summer and forcing the Canes to make qualifying offer at 6 million again. If they don't want to then he becomes UFA and gets to negotiate with 31 teams on a contract extension instead of just the Canes.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Kotkaniemi is really holding all the cards here because of situation.

If he is still playing poorly and on his 20-30 pts pace while looking lost then yeah he takes some 4x4 extension the Canes offer in January. Still basically being overpaid for "potential" but gets term and guaranteed $ in the bank.

If he is actually starting to break out, which the Canes believe will happen (Habs not so sure), then why would he sign a deal?? He has nothing to lose by waiting until summer and forcing the Canes to make qualifying offer at 6 million again. If they don't want to then he becomes UFA and gets to negotiate with 31 teams on a contract extension instead of just the Canes.

Cool, I'm pretty sure management is aware that this could happen and that it's part of the risk/reward analysis.

It's also the major reason a lot of folks believe (without evidence) that there is most likely some sort of handshake deal behind the scenes to consider this year's overpayment an "advance" of sorts on the renewal.

 

[CanadienShark]

What exactly about North Carolina makes that situation different than any other place where this might occur? Is it the awful weather, high taxes, low quality of life, absence of privacy, lack of a good young NHL team?

We most definitely have had players take team-friendly deals to play here. And a bunch more have retired here rather than live anywhere else. You seem to be painting with an incredibly broad brush about what lifestyles are desirable.

There's a reason people are moving here by the busload, it's a great place to live and an even better place to have summers free.

Is the bolded about Montreal? It kind of seems like you were insinuating so. If so, the second bolded bit seems kind of strange to say. Maybe I'm wrong.

Overall I mostly agree with you. Not everyone is the same and we all have different preferences, and weight those preferences differently.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

We most definitely have had players take team-friendly deals to play here. And a bunch more have retired here rather than live anywhere else. You seem to be painting with an incredibly broad brush about what lifestyles are desirable.

How many of these players had been there for only a few months? Were single, with no kids? No school to think about? No community ties whatsoever? Because if you read my message, that's what I'm talking about.

It's not just about lifestyle. It's about perhaps a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to secure your future and your entire family's future. I'm sure people well-off people retire there all the time. They do everywhere. Because they have history.

That's how a guy like Mario Lemieux, who was originally disgusted at the thought of playing in Pittsburgh and did his best to avoid i, changed his mind. He failed to coerce Pittsburgh into trading him, and spent so many years there, and built so many ties in the community and developed business interests that he is probably forever going to stay there.

How many guys who have never played for a franchise sign a team friendly deal a few months away from a big payday? We're exactly 9 months away from free agency. He's isn't even established in Carolina yet, has never played a game for these guys. He's gonna sign a team friendly extension because? His invisible kids need to stay in school? His non-existent wife has family there?

Kotkaniemi is completely free. He's 9 months away from what players wait for for years. Unrestricted free agency. The only thing that can stop this is if the Hurricanes qualify him.

There's a reason people are moving here by the busload, it's a great place to live and an even better place to have summers free.

I'm sure there is and again, this isn't a judgment on the area, the city of Raleigh or anything. But highly mobile, privileged individuals have the luxury of making choices a little differently from us common folks.

But again, it needs to be stressed despite the best efforts of people here to try to be offended by the truth: I am not (and have never claimed) that Raleigh or North Carolina are crappy places. Nor do I think so. I 100% believe NHL players can be and often are happy there. But it's not a franchise that players will flock to, simply because of the market, ownership or location. It's just not.

Maybe Kotkaniemi will spend the rest of his career in Carolina. And be very happy there. I don't know precisely what the future holds for him. But I know one thing: he's not signing at a discount between January and July, because he has no reason to and every reason not to. This guy could be a 22-years old, 3rd overall pick unrestricted free agent. This is one of the greatest financial opportunity a hockey player of his talent level and current output has ever gotten. He would be insane not to jump on it.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Is the bolded about Montreal?

Typically the things you hear NHL'ers praising about NC:
- Nice climate (not California or Florida, but basically the next tier down from that)
- Low cost of living
- High quality of life in general
- Ability to live a normal private life without tabloids, stalkers, randos harassing them, etc.
- Good young team

I sarcastically flipped those around as negatives. Does it then describe Montreal? I don't know, I've never lived in Montreal and won't pretend to know how people who live there feel about it.

 

[tarheelhockey]

How many of these players had been there for only a few months? Were single, with no kids? No school to think about? No community ties whatsoever? Because if you read my message, that's what I'm talking about.

It's not just about lifestyle. It's about perhaps a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to secure your future and your entire family's future. I'm sure people well-off people retire there all the time. They do everywhere. Because they have history.

That's how a guy like Mario Lemieux, who was originally disgusted at the thought of playing in Pittsburgh and did his best to avoid i, changed his mind. He failed to coerce Pittsburgh into trading him, and spent so many years there, and built so many ties in the community and developed business interests that he is probably forever going to stay there.

How many guys who have never played for a franchise sign a team friendly deal a few months away from a big payday? We're exactly 9 months away from free agency. He's isn't even established in Carolina yet, has never played a game for these guys. He's gonna sign a team friendly extension because? His invisible kids need to stay in school? His non-existent wife has family there?

Kotkaniemi is completely free. He's 9 months away from what players wait for for years. Unrestricted free agency. The only thing that can stop this is if the Hurricanes qualify him.



I'm sure there is and again, this isn't a judgment on the area, the city of Raleigh or anything. But highly mobile, privileged individuals have the luxury of making choices a little differently from us common folks.

But again, it needs to be stressed despite the best efforts of people here to try to be offended by the truth: I am not (and have never claimed) that Raleigh or North Carolina are crappy places. Nor do I think so. I 100% believe NHL players can be and often are happy there. But it's not a franchise that players will flock to, simply because of the market, ownership or location. It's just not.

Maybe Kotkaniemi will spend the rest of his career in Carolina. And be very happy there. I don't know precisely what the future holds for him. But I know one thing: he's not signing at a discount between January and July, because he has no reason to and every reason not to. This guy could be a 22-years old, 3rd overall pick unrestricted free agent. This is one of the greatest financial opportunity a hockey player of his talent level and current output has ever gotten. He would be insane not to jump on it.

What's missing in all of this is what Kotkaniemi thinks.

You can speculate and I can speculate and that cow over there can speculate, but none of us know what his game plan is. None of us know what the actual (not official) conversation has been between his agent and team management. Most of all, none of us know what kind of season he's about to have. There are a ton of unknown variables here, and the only relevant data point is almost a year away.

From a Canes perspective, it was worth using a couple of picks and cap space to solve a pressing need at forward and take a shot at some potential upside. If we get more out of it, lovely. If not, it was a risk worth taking compared to sitting on our hands.

 

[Not The One]

This is an incomplete picture of KK’s performance last season.

He played 2/3rds of his ice time with some variation of the 3 wingers you mentioned. 289 5v5 minutes werent with the three wingers.

In fairness KK did have a 4% higher O zone face-off percentage.

also where are you getting these FOs numbers
5v5 219/208/174
ES 228 / 213/175
All 307/227/182

kk didn’t greatly outplay him in xGF% of HDGF% but lets look at a possible reason why.

if you believe in JFresh’s player pages he did get a 61% in quality of competition. Im pretty sure that is better than Evans’ QoC. So not all numbers are equal but at least paint an accurate picture not cherry pick.

Feel free to compare among Habs centers.

NHL Stats

What wingers do you think Evans played with... certainly not the Habs' best scorers like KK.

Faceoff numbers and zones are here:

NHL Stats

Overall Evans had 50.1% FO and KK 47.9% FO but Evans skewed very defensively and KK very offensively. They still got about the same production/60 min.

So KK struggled to outproduce Evans, even with much more offensive icetime and much better wingers.

 

[FF de Mars]

Mete and Kotkaniemi were best friends on the Habs, they were roomates and their impatience towards management unified them. On Dale Weise's podcast, Mete talked about Kotkaniemi, how they met. It was for some sort of camp, and KK was supposed to be his roomate, yet he never showed up and instead roomed with another Finn. I'm writing this to exemplify some nationalistic tendencies of Kotkaniemi and maybe some other Finns in general. Sorry for generalizing, I'm sure there are exceptions, but you can find that phenomenon everywhere, from expats to snowbirds, it is gregarious human nature. You have teams like Dallas where they call it the Finnish Mafia. When Kotkaniemi becomes UFA, he might very well be tempted to join such an organization. You will tell me Carolina has many Finns as well, but I'd answer, not as much! And so did Montréal.

 

[CanadienShark]

Typically the things you hear NHL'ers praising about NC:
- Nice climate (not California or Florida, but basically the next tier down from that)
- Low cost of living
- High quality of life in general
- Ability to live a normal private life without tabloids, stalkers, randos harassing them, etc.
- Good young team

I sarcastically flipped those around as negatives. Does it then describe Montreal? I don't know, I've never lived in Montreal and won't pretend to know how people who live there feel about it.

Fair enough. You listed those things that some (ignorant) people use to knock Montreal. FWIW I think the weather in Florida is absolute shit. I'd hate it there. North Carolina is more appealing, I think.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

If KK had a good year then the Canes will sign him to a contract for good money. If he doesn’t and the Canes don’t qualify him why would some other team sign him to ‘considerable money’ that he wouldn’t be getting from Carolina?

That's the question we ask about every unrestricted free agent, isn't it? It's the difference between consensus value and the actual salary they end up with. That's their actual value, even if it makes no sense.

Imagine you are a cop working on a bank robbery. You interview 30 witnesses. 29 of them tell you the bank robbers escaped in a van with the plate "DimeA12D". The other witness tells you the robber escaped in a van with the plate "D-BEAST". You decide to follow up on the consensus lead first. It's not a sure thing, but it's more likely that 29 people are right, rather than a single one.

But in an auction, it doesn't matter what the consensus is. Even if 29 GMs think Jeff Finger is a dime a dozen defenseman, it only takes one moron like Cliff Fletcher for Jeff Finger to become a multimillionaire despite his obvious lack of talent.

The consensus means nothing in free agency. That's why players (and agents!) want that sweet free agency as soon as possible. The low offers don't matter. It's the quality offers. It forces everyone to be on their A game if they want the player because he picks the best one. That's why so many unrestricted free agents are overpaid. The player picks at the extreme of the range of offer, not in the middle. Not because GMs overrate them all. But because it only takes one GM to overrate you to create an Ericsson, Ladd, Karlsson, Finger, Alzner, etc...

The best thing that can happen for the Hurricanes now is for Kotkaniemi to play well enough to deserve his qualifying offer. In any other scenario they will likely pay dearly for the investment they made.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

What's missing in all of this is what Kotkaniemi thinks.

You can speculate and I can speculate and that cow over there can speculate, but none of us know what his game plan is. None of us know what the actual (not official) conversation has been between his agent and team management.

But that's the thing. I'm not speculating. Those who are imagining "handshake agreements" are speculating. They are inventing things to feel better about what went down.

Agents are there to assist you legally, to get contracts that will protect you and your family. Not to shake hands in fictional deals.

How do these handshake deals work? Like, if Kotkaniemi breaks in arm in 2, do the Hurricanes honor that 4 year handshake deal?

If Kotkaniemi breaks out to 90 points, do they still have that 3-year handshake agreement?

Of course they don't. Because there is no such thing as handshake agreement on NHL contracts. Because contracts are complicated, and people negotiate them at the last minute to get as much information and leverage and certainty as possible.

Reality is not speculation. There are no agreements because there is no contract. Nothing binds these sides until an extension is signed, contractually. If you think otherwise, you're probably not an adult, and have never signed any kind of contract. You will find the hard way that verbal agreements and handshake deals are a sure way to get f***ed. No amount of handshaking is gonna change that.

That is why multimillionaires hire lawyers and agents. To not get f***ed.
And lawyers and agents don't shake hands to get what they want. They make you sign on the dotted line.

Anyone who believes it works any differently is the one speculating.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

That's the question we ask about every unrestricted free agent, isn't it? It's the difference between consensus value and the actual salary they end up with. That's their actual value, even if it makes no sense.

Imagine you are a cop working on a bank robbery. You interview 30 witnesses. 29 of them tell you the bank robbers escaped in a van with the plate "DimeA12D". The other witness tells you the robber escaped in a van with the plate "D-BEAST". You decide to follow up on the consensus lead first. It's not a sure thing, but it's more likely that 29 people are right, rather than a single one.

But in an auction, it doesn't matter what the consensus is. Even if 29 GMs think Jeff Finger is a dime a dozen defenseman, it only takes one moron like Cliff Fletcher for Jeff Finger to become a multimillionaire despite his obvious lack of talent.

The consensus means nothing in free agency. That's why players (and agents!) want that sweet free agency as soon as possible. The low offers don't matter. It's the quality offers. It forces everyone to be on their A game if they want the player because he picks the best one. That's why so many unrestricted free agents are overpaid. The player picks at the extreme of the range of offer, not in the middle. Not because GMs overrate them all. But because it only takes one GM to overrate you to create an Ericsson, Ladd, Karlsson, Finger, Alzner, etc...

The best thing that can happen for the Hurricanes now is for Kotkaniemi to play well enough to deserve his qualifying offer. In any other scenario they will likely pay dearly for the investment they made.

Uhhh I’m just gonna quote this so it can live on in HFboards land for eternity.

 

[japhi]

The handshake agreement makes no sense to me. Any agreement is going to be based on his play this year. If KK is PPG through 40 games you think he takes 4x4? And if he is .4ppg, same stretch, Canes sign him anyways?

I think this is all about rolling the dice and hoping the player breaks out. And if he does, paying him. I am sure they know the comps and scenarios, but a handshake that goes to paper no matter the outcome of the first half of the season? That doesn't pass the sniff test.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

But that's the thing. I'm not speculating. Those who are imagining "handshake agreements" are speculating. They are inventing things to feel better about what went down.

Agents are there to assist you legally, to get contracts that will protect you and your family. Not to shake hands in fictional deals.

How do these handshake deals work? Like, if Kotkaniemi breaks in arm in 2, do the Hurricanes honor that 4 year handshake deal?

If Kotkaniemi breaks out to 90 points, do they still have that 3-year handshake agreement?

Of course they don't. Because there is no such thing as handshake agreement on NHL contracts. Because contracts are complicated, and people negotiate them at the last minute to get as much information and leverage and certainty as possible.

Reality is not speculation. There are no agreements because there is no contract. Nothing binds these sides until an extension is signed, contractually. If you think otherwise, you're probably not an adult, and have never signed any kind of contract. You will find the hard way that verbal agreements and handshake deals are a sure way to get f***ed. No amount of handshaking is gonna change that.

That is why multimillionaires hire lawyers and agents. To not get f***ed.
And lawyers and agents don't shake hands to get what they want. They make you sign on the dotted line.

Anyone who believes it works any differently is the one speculating.

Do you really think the hockey insiders are just ‘wishful thinking’ that there is a strong possibility of a handshake agreement in place? What would they have to gain from that? They have no skin in the game and it makes no difference to them if it were the case. Did they all have a meeting to corroborate the same rumour?

Friedman said, “I think they also discussed the potential of what a long-term deal would look like before they signed him to this deal.” He adds, “I think they said, if we can do this for term, what would we be looking at? My guess is Carolina knows exactly what a long-term deal looks like and I’m also betting it’s not at $6.1 million a year.” Marek called it a unique creature where the extension would be lower than the value of the one-year contract.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

The handshake agreement makes no sense to me. Any agreement is going to be based on his play this year. If KK is PPG through 40 games you think he takes 4x4? And if he is .4ppg, same stretch, Canes sign him anyways?

I think this is all about rolling the dice and hoping the player breaks out. And if he does, paying him. I am sure they know the comps and scenarios, but a handshake that goes to paper no matter the outcome of the first half of the season? That doesn't pass the sniff test.

It makes a ton of sense. Canes and KK are allies. He’s likely grateful to the Canes for getting him out of a situation that wasn’t working. I’m sure if he plays well, gels with his fellow Finns and enjoys his experience in Carolina he would be amenable to a reasonable contract extension.

Will he sign 4 years at 2 mil if he scores 30 goals? No, but clearly this is a player the Canes want and are willing to invest in so I don’t foresee it being an issue in extending him a good contract that’s commensurate with his play.