Prospect Info: Caps Top Prospects General Discussion Thread Vol. 2 - 2021-22

[twabby]

22 isn’t prime for kids his size though. More like 24 +

I certainly hope so! It’d be neat to have their own version of Tage Thompson.

 

[Cappy76]

Protas hasn’t shown the offensive chops to really show to me that he’s a top 6 center. He’s also 22 years old and basically in his prime now. I can see him locking down a 3C spot at some point but top 6 seems like a reach.

Very large data set somewhere that shows from 5’10 to 6’3 players typically take 200 games north or south of that 400 to hit their breakout offensively.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Protas hasn’t shown the offensive chops to really show to me that he’s a top 6 center. He’s also 22 years old and basically in his prime now. I can see him locking down a 3C spot at some point but top 6 seems like a reach.

He’s got no finish yet…..that’s what’s missing….he’s gotta produce to take that next step. In the mean time he should be honing his faceoff skills for a team lacking in competent winners…

 

[HTFN]

Protas hasn’t shown the offensive chops to really show to me that he’s a top 6 center. He’s also 22 years old and basically in his prime now. I can see him locking down a 3C spot at some point but top 6 seems like a reach.

Imagine saying that about Tage Thompson and where you'd be right now if you did....

 

[twabby]

Imagine saying that about Tage Thompson and where you'd be right now if you did....

There are always outliers or exceptions to the rule. Protas could be a late bloomer like Thompson and turn into a star player. I just think the odds are highly against it!

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Protas has the intellect to become a better player than he already is. He's one smart guy and willing to do what coaches and teammates ask of him. He's going to get way better imho.

Additionally, Protas is a hard worker and his adaptability coming to NA is pretty impressive.

 

[HTFN]

There are always outliers or exceptions to the rule. Protas could be a late bloomer like Thompson and turn into a star player. I just think the odds are highly against it!

It’s not even exceptions, it’s you doing the Fehervary thing all over again and building an aggregate player then assuming everyone tracks that way.

 

[twabby]

It’s not even exceptions, it’s you doing the Fehervary thing all over again and building an aggregate player then assuming everyone tracks that way.

What’s the alternative to looking at aggregates and projecting based on those aggregates?

 

[HTFN]

What’s the alternative to looking at aggregates and projecting based on those aggregates?

Individual scouting and player development? It's a dynamic process down at an individual level. Aggregate projections also say Ovechkin should have been done forever ago, they're not an all powerful predictor. You do, unfortunately, have to look at the individual with your eyes and determine if they're already maximized or capable of refinement and that answer will probably be different depending on the 22 year old.

 

[twabby]

Individual scouting and player development? It's a dynamic process down at an individual level. Aggregate projections also say Ovechkin should have been done forever ago, they're not an all powerful predictor. You do, unfortunately, have to look at the individual with your eyes and determine if they're already maximized or capable of refinement and that answer will probably be different depending on the 22 year old.

It’s a dynamic process that requires skill to predict at a granular level, and I’m comfortable saying I (and probably everyone here) just don’t have the level of hockey knowledge to say a guy will or won’t buck the trend with any level of confidence.

For what it’s worth Ovechkin has followed a pretty typical aging curve, just with a much higher baseline and a few outlier seasons.

 

[HTFN]

It’s a dynamic process that requires skill to predict at a granular level, and I’m comfortable saying I (and probably everyone here) just don’t have the level of hockey knowledge to say a guy will or won’t buck the trend with any level of confidence.

For what it’s worth Ovechkin has followed a pretty typical aging curve, just with a much higher baseline and a few outlier seasons.

not as a goal scorer, which was the part I forgot to put in. Also I don't think fans can definitively say "will or won't" but they are absolutely capable of identifying "can". Until they're in charge of the development coaching it's not really up to them beyond that, but it's not actually as difficult as you make it sound to say "hey that Tom Wilson's got more to him that they can unlock" and be right about it.

And remember how Wilson never got any better after 22? Brian Boyle didn't really click until 26... big guys who aren't just out to pound flesh sometimes take a while to get their frame, hands, and brain to mesh at NHL speed. They also need to be trusted to develop into more instead of being asked to pound flesh anyway (not saying that's happening here but it's part of the learning curve)

We seriously can't do the "defensemen don't develop" conversation again

 

[RedRocking]

It’s a dynamic process that requires skill to predict at a granular level, and I’m comfortable saying I (and probably everyone here) just don’t have the level of hockey knowledge to say a guy will or won’t buck the trend with any level of confidence.

For what it’s worth Ovechkin has followed a pretty typical aging curve, just with a much higher baseline and a few outlier seasons.

I mean, isn’t half the fun of being a sports fan watching a sport for decades and then having “opinions” about what a player projects to be in the pros?

Yes, opinions, not solely graphs and charts to support whatever narrative someone is pushing (which is just another opinion). And of course we aren’t privy to all the behind the scenes information re coaching, training, etc…and we all have real jobs, and are not working in the NHL.

But when did the fun police decide only analytics are able to make up for that? Why does everything have to be couched in “well, it’s just my eyes, and I don’t know what the fancystats say, but…”

To be clear, this isn’t an anti-analytics take - I think they’re insightful and informative - it’s just also being very pro experience and eye-test. I haven’t watched a bazillion hours of hockey (and a thousand careers) since I was a little kid, just to have no opinions as to what I’m watching.

I’m really excited for Protas’ future, and look forward to seeing if he comes in next year with some better hands/finishing. At least he can contribute at wing, unlike CMM.

/end rant

 

[twabby]

not as a goal scorer, which was the part I forgot to put in. Also I don't think fans can definitively say "will or won't" but they are absolutely capable of identifying "can". Until they're in charge of the development coaching it's not really up to them beyond that, but it's not actually as difficult as you make it sound to say "hey that Tom Wilson's got more to him that they can unlock" and be right about it.

And remember how Wilson never got any better after 22? Brian Boyle didn't really click until 26... big guys who aren't just out to pound flesh sometimes take a while to get their frame, hands, and brain to mesh at NHL speed. They also need to be trusted to develop into more instead of being asked to pound flesh anyway (not saying that's happening here but it's part of the learning curve)

We seriously can't do the "defensemen don't develop" conversation again

I'm more interested in Protas than any Capitals prospect for what it's worth. In aggregate young forwards typically do show improvement offensively rather than defensively. And Protas is already a very good defensive forward. So if he is given a legit chance I would not be surprised at all if he does elevate his game and become a top 6 forward. I'm just not confident in that yet. Brian Boyle was never a top 6 forward. Jordan Greenway likely isn't getting there. Adam Lowry, Pierre Engvall, Frederik Gauthier, Ross Johnston, etc. all never really took a next step from their early 20s either despite all being really big dudes.

 

[HTFN]

I'm more interested in Protas than any Capitals prospect for what it's worth. In aggregate young forwards typically do show improvement offensively rather than defensively. And Protas is already a very good defensive forward. So if he is given a legit chance I would not be surprised at all if he does elevate his game and become a top 6 forward. I'm just not confident in that yet. Brian Boyle was never a top 6 forward. Jordan Greenway likely isn't getting there. Adam Lowry, Pierre Engvall, Frederik Gauthier, Ross Johnston, etc. all never really took a next step from their early 20s either despite all being really big dudes.

Now you're moving the goalposts a lot. It's not about top 6 or bust it's about becoming more than you were at 22 and putting parts of your toolbox together. Boyle was a ~10 point player... until he was a 20 goal scorer with Selke votes, and it didn't happen at 22.

You for real including Ross f***ing Johnston in this list like they're the same just because they're big? That's not worth addressing.

I could go on to remind you that even the shit you quoted in the Fehervary thing said the dangers of thinking this way included creating an amalgamation of numerous players from various backgrounds and making sweeping conclusions about the way players develop while individuals buck the trend every single year, and now you're doing it again.

 

[twabby]

Now you're moving the goalposts a lot. It's not about top 6 or bust it's about becoming more than you were at 22 and putting parts of your toolbox together. Boyle was a ~10 point player... until he was a 20 goal scorer with Selke votes, and it didn't happen at 22.

You for real including Ross f***ing Johnston in this list like they're the same just because they're big? That's not worth addressing.

I could go on to remind you that even the shit you quoted in the Fehervary thing said the dangers of thinking this way included creating an amalgamation of numerous players from various backgrounds and making sweeping conclusions about the way players develop while individuals buck the trend every single year, and now you're doing it again.

My initial statement was that I didn’t think Protas would become a top 6 center. That’s where this discussion started. I don’t think his career is top 6 or bust. But I do think he’s going to likely fall into a bottom 6 role for most of his career. Much like Brian Boyle! And that’s fine!

 

[HTFN]

Protas hasn’t shown the offensive chops to really show to me that he’s a top 6 center. He’s also 22 years old and basically in his prime now. I can see him locking down a 3C spot at some point but top 6 seems like a reach.

Right but this was the part that made no sense and is consistently wrong on a micro level about players like all the time, and what we started talking about.

 

[twabby]

Right but this was the part that made no sense and is consistently wrong on a micro level about players like all the time, and what we started talking about.

It’s also consistently right on a micro level! It’s why looking at the macro is so important. To see what players typically do and make judgments based off that.

Go ahead and make the case that Protas will buck the trend, I’m all ears! But don’t say that since Brian Boyle scored 20 goals one (1) time in his career that means the trend is hogwash and that we can’t draw some conclusions based on it.

 

[HTFN]

It’s also consistently right on a micro level! It’s why looking at the macro is so important. To see what players typically do and make judgments based off that.

Go ahead and make the case that Protas will buck the trend, I’m all ears! But don’t say that since Brian Boyle scored 20 goals one (1) time in his career that means the trend is hogwash and that we can’t draw some conclusions based on it.

the f*** is this? Your conclusion is absolute hogwash, weighed down on one side by the churn of low-value team controlled grinders who phase in and out of the league in 2-6 years and equally thrown by the explosive primes of some of the league's very best. If you already know you don't have one of those two types of players the macro level doesn't help you anymore.

Let's go simple: Brian Boyle... better at 26 or 22?
Tom Wilson... better at 26 or 22?
Tage Thompson... not 26 yet if I'm not mistaken but something like 24 or 25...
f*** it, how about Kuznetsov? 26 or 22? TJ Oshie outdid his 22 year old self at age 29 and 30...
Marcus Johansson massively better at 26 than 22.
Or hey, Nic Dowd is still apparently getting better year to year and has taken defensive leaps in his time here. That's an NHL career that doesn't even start until, what, 25?
Clicking some comparable players here... Brandon Tanev's not even a big boy and still kept improving until about age 27. Garnet Hathaway has broken double digit goals twice, age 27 and 30!

Your forward prime argument is as dogshit as the defensive one.

 

[twabby]

the f*** is this? Your conclusion is absolute hogwash, weighed down on one side by the churn of low-value team controlled grinders who phase in and out of the league in 2-6 years and equally thrown by the explosive primes of some of the league's very best. If you already know you don't have one of those two types of players the macro level doesn't help you anymore.

Let's go simple: Brian Boyle... better at 26 or 22?
Tom Wilson... better at 26 or 22?
Tage Thompson... not 26 yet if I'm not mistaken but something like 24 or 25...
f*** it, how about Kuznetsov? 26 or 22? TJ Oshie outdid his 22 year old self at age 29 and 30...
Marcus Johansson massively better at 26 than 22.
Or hey, Nic Dowd is still apparently getting better year to year and has taken defensive leaps in his time here. That's an NHL career that doesn't even start until, what, 25?
Clicking some comparable players here... Brandon Tanev's not even a big boy and still kept improving until about age 27. Garnet Hathaway has broken double digit goals twice, age 27 and 30!

Your forward prime argument is as dogshit as the defensive one.

How do we know Protas isn’t one of those guys who won’t be in the league in a few years? He’s played 75 games in his career and has been sent back down to the AHL the past 2 seasons. Hardly someone we can guarantee will be an NHL mainstay.

I like looking at impact (as measured by GAR) over points. Otherwise you’d be forced to conclude that Evgeny Kuznetsov is having a good year this year because he’s on pace for 68 points, for instance.

To that point, the following players on your list were more or about equally impactful at 22 as they were at 26:

Tom Wilson
Evgeny Kuznetsov
TJ Oshie
Marcus Johansson
Brandon Tanev
Garnet Hathaway

Most of the reason players appear to do better in their late 20s and even early 30s is because they are simply given more opportunity. Coaches love them some vets!

 

[twabby]

Just to be clear: I think Protas is a fine player right this second. He’s already got the impact of a pretty good 3C. I just wouldn’t bet on him taking another big step forward.

But hey I’ve been wrong before! (precisely one time)

 

[HTFN]

How do we know Protas isn’t one of those guys who won’t be in the league in a few years? He’s played 75 games in his career and has been sent back down to the AHL the past 2 seasons. Hardly someone we can guarantee will be an NHL mainstay.

I like looking at impact (as measured by GAR) over points. Otherwise you’d be forced to conclude that Evgeny Kuznetsov is having a good year this year because he’s on pace for 68 points, for instance.

To that point, the following players on your list were more or about equally impactful at 22 as they were at 26:

Tom Wilson
Evgeny Kuznetsov
TJ Oshie
Marcus Johansson
Brandon Tanev
Garnet Hathaway

Most of the reason players appear to do better in their late 20s and even early 30s is because they are simply given more opportunity. Coaches love them some vets!

Yeah, no. You're letting the cart lead the horse here and your GAR models are far from perfect (see: everything about your Johansson take from offseason to now). Would love to see you show me the numbers but having Tanev and Hathaway on this list is an immediate red flag, and Johansson is one we can pretty easily unpack ourselves because we've seen each version of the player and I think you can admit it hasn't gotten worse over time.

We "know", insofar as we can, because we're using our eyes and assessing the player and feel like there's more room for growth? Like, you have to phrase it so awfully to even make that point about a developing player...

And you and I both know that production isn't linear as it relates to ice time, so that's not it. I seriously can't believe you didn't learn anything from doing this with defensemen.

 

[twabby]

There’s room for growth but there’s room for decline too. That has to be weighed into any assessment of how players will perform as they get older.

All I kept hearing this offseason was how Protas looks great in preseason and how much he’s improved. How he looks much faster and how he’s looking like he could be something special soon. Yet his impact and his individual production were pretty much the same this regular season as last.

Maybe this is all that he is likely to become? I think he’ll eventually get trusted more because he’ll be considered a veteran soon, but I’m not sure he’s going to be considerably more impactful aside from getting more minutes.

 

[Langway]

To that point, the following players on your list were more or about equally impactful at 22 as they were at 26:
...Brandon Tanev...Garnet Hathaway

At 22 Tanev was a sophomore at Providence and Hathaway was an upperclassman at Brown. Do you believe both could have made the jump immediately from college to the NHL at that point and that it was a question of opportunity? Tanev ultimately did largely skip the AHL but played all four years at Providence, winning a championship as a junior, ratcheting up his offense and role as he went. While these players largely maintain the same basic profile as bottom sixers there are attributes improving over this period. Tom Wilson in particular at 22 was still about a 20 point player and that wasn't so much about opportunity. His skill profile vastly improved and he made the jump from impact physical grinder to legit power forward. Not a great example of flat development.

I'd wager Protas tops out as a third-liner. His skill and finishing aren't quite top six stuff. He's a bit clunky (as the whole damn team is). But it's still up to him and the work he puts in. He's always been behind his countryman Sharangovich and I doubt he turns into a 40-50 point player. It could happen. It would take a lot clicking. Improvements in spatial/body awareness and skating make him much improved compared to 20, even if the box cars have been flat. It's the other areas improving that have even gotten him in games. The trajectory won't be exponentially improved but there's more yet. His defensive fundamentals are strong enough to put him on pretty solid ground going forward as a third line possession staple. I'm intrigued by making him a shutdown center...yet they're not too focused on it for whatever reason (less immediately useful to them? not creative enough to invest in it?).

 

[twabby]

At 22 Tanev was a sophomore at Providence and Hathaway was an upperclassman at Brown. Do you believe both could have made the jump immediately from college to the NHL at that point and that it was a question of opportunity? Tanev ultimately did largely skip the AHL but played all four years at Providence, winning a championship as a junior, ratcheting up his offense and role as he went. While these players largely maintain the same basic profile as bottom sixers there are attributes improving over this period. Tom Wilson in particular at 22 was still about a 20 point player and that wasn't so much about opportunity. His skill profile vastly improved and he made the jump from impact physical grinder to legit power forward. Not a great example of flat development.

I'd wager Protas tops out as a third-liner. His skill and finishing aren't quite top six stuff. He's a bit clunky (as the whole damn team is). But it's still up to him and the work he puts in. He's always been behind his countryman Sharangovich and I doubt he turns into a 40-50 point player. It could happen. It would take a lot clicking. Improvements in spatial/body awareness and skating make him much improved compared to 20, even if the box cars have been flat. It's the other areas improving that have even gotten him in games. The trajectory won't be exponentially improved but there's more yet. His defensive fundamentals are strong enough to put him on pretty solid ground going forward as a third line possession staple. I'm intrigued by making him a shutdown center...yet they're not too focused on it for whatever reason (less immediately useful to them? not creative enough to invest in it?).

I pulled up Chris Tanev's numbers instead of Brandon Tanev's! Isn't my face red! And with Hathaway, Evolving Hockey shows his age 23 season being his rookie year, close enough to 22. I see that Hockey Reference has his age 24 year being his rookie year. I think there is some difference on how they label years. Either way the point kind of remains: Hathaway was a similar player at 24 when he entered the league as he is now. There wasn't really an upward trajectory of growth from an impact standpoint.

I keep hearing about Tom Wilson being a much improved player after his age 22 season but is that really true? I'm sure he's transformed a bit qualitatively, but the GAR impacts have been largely the same from 22 until now (save for last year). They show him becoming more impactful from ages 19 to 21 and then pretty much leveling out, i.e. a somewhat typical aging curve. Haven't you in particular been wanting more from Wilson in recent years, saying he needs to be a more assertive top 6 forward for them to succeed? Do you really think he's much better now than he was in 2018 when they won the Cup?

Wilson really was just given more opportunity. He was stuck behind guys like Oshie and Williams and was stapled to guys like Lars Eller, Jay Beagle, Daniel Winnik, etc. That's going suppress point totals quite a bit.

 

[Langway]

Wilson's skill level did improve quite dramatically. Maybe GAR suggests relatively similar impact all-around but going from a 20 point premier grinder to legit top sixer was pretty massive and wasn't just a function of opportunity. 15 points in 21 playoff games was essentially a breakthrough in 2018 for Wilson. Since then, sure, he could have taken another step toward a franchise power winger like a Tkachuk. But Wilson did at least follow up and prove that run wasn't an outlier and that's not nothing. It's still more improvement than basically anyone else has shown since 2018 (and I think that's easily the most troubling dynamic they have no apparent answer for). His injury does makes me question whether it's wise to invest in him long-term vs. the assets he'd return. But much like selling off at the deadline in order to load up two years from now or something it's just not happening.

While Tanev & Hathaway have always been grinders it's nonetheless a tough sell suggesting their 22yo selves were immanently NHL ready. There's not a massive bar being a fourth-line energy, PKer but they weren't there yet altogether. It's a more common player than an impact skill player but still takes a very honed, specific skill set to execute. Areas like skating and strength have to be dead on to play that game effectively at the highest level.

Now that the vast majority of the Caps are getting older and largely set in their ways it's only going to make developmental tasks like manufacturing their own top six talents that much more difficult. That has a massive impact on Protas, McMichael, Lapierre, Mirochnichenko, Suzdalev et al. The degree of inflexibility in their games across the board at the moment makes it hard to gauge how they'll manage to stay afloat. Even if they shuffle out Kuznetsov & Mantha I'm not sure that goes far enough without one or two legit tone-setters added (and not managing to decline too much on the blueline in the process).