Prospect Info: Caps Top Prospects General Discussion Thread Vol. 2 - 2021-22

[Langway]

Corey Pronman's NHL Mock Draft: Picks for the entire first round

How could the first round of the 2022 NHL Draft play out? Corey Pronman projects the top 32 picks.

theathletic.com

Pronman mock has the Caps taking the big LD Bichsel. He also thought Pickering could make sense. I'd have to a tough time rationalizing a couple of fairly offensively limited defensemen, even if they offer some good size and skating. It seems doubtful that moves the needle much in the coming few years, I'd just as soon consider Noah Warren, a guy that while similarly limited offensively profiles to be a really stout physical defender with the sort of snarl they often covet. He may be the most physically advanced draft-eligible player I've seen since Tom Wilson. If he crushes the combine I don't doubt he's a first rounder. He's a beast. But, again, early at 20 all things considered.

In a scenario with no slider they ought to either take Miroshnichenko (ala Lapierre) or trade down barring really liking one of the forwards left. It's the best means of maximizing value/utility. Whether it's Firkus, Ostlund, Ohgren, Gaucher or maybe Snuggerud or Howard that's an easier and more dynamic addition. Whereas defensemen have a much higher threshold with risk tolerance, readiness and bottom of the lineup value barring standout offensive traits buying them more rope. I can see the value in Mintyukov/Mateychuk/Korchinski for sure but I doubt the value exists with any of the D after them at that spot. I'm not sure it's there at 25. I like Bichsel a couple spots later. Pickering IMO isn't a first rounder. The skating may impress and at times he flashes skill but the toolbox is questionable. After not getting much out of the Johansen/Alexeyev picks thus far they need to be very selective about first round quality defenders. Without more consistently effective and productive tools or massively dynamic flashes, again, very hard to consider IMO.

WHLer Reid Schaefer sneaked into the first round here, a name I've had circled at 46. Jagger Firkus surprisingly did not. Another guy I have in the first round is Chesley and I might prefer him as the next best defender as well. The Caps may be right where the board opens up but Miro as a baseline fallback seems right as far as maximizing value and swinging for upside assuming optimistic medical progress.

Edit: In light of Backstrom's uncertain status I think in this scenario I'm coming around more and more to the likes of Gaucher & Ostlund, two centers with a lot of attributes they like. Ostlund's hockey IQ and positional maturity in particular strikes me as the best option to potentially replace Backstrom's two-way game.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Corey Pronman's NHL Mock Draft: Picks for the entire first round

How could the first round of the 2022 NHL Draft play out? Corey Pronman projects the top 32 picks.

theathletic.com

Pronman mock has the Caps taking the big LD Bichsel. He also thought Pickering could make sense. I'd have to a tough time rationalizing a couple of fairly offensively limited defensemen, even if they offer some good size and skating. It seems doubtful that moves the needle much in the coming few years, I'd just as soon consider Noah Warren, a guy that while similarly limited offensively profiles to be a really stout physical defender with the sort of snarl they often covet. He may be the most physically advanced draft-eligible player I've seen since Tom Wilson. If he crushes the combine I don't doubt he's a first rounder. He's a beast. But, again, early at 20 all things considered.

In a scenario with no slider they ought to either take Miroshnichenko (ala Lapierre) or trade down barring really liking one of the forwards left. It's the best means of maximizing value/utility. Whether it's Firkus, Ostlund, Ohgren, Gaucher or maybe Snuggerud or Howard that's an easier and more dynamic addition. Whereas defensemen have a much higher threshold with risk tolerance, readiness and bottom of the lineup value barring standout offensive traits buying them more rope. I can see the value in Mintyukov/Mateychuk/Korchinski for sure but I doubt the value exists with any of the D after them at that spot. I'm not sure it's there at 25. I like Bichsel a couple spots later. Pickering IMO isn't a first rounder. The skating may impress and at times he flashes skill but the toolbox is questionable. After not getting much out of the Johansen/Alexeyev picks thus far they need to be very selective about first round quality defenders. Without more consistently effective and productive tools or massively dynamic flashes, again, very hard to consider IMO.

WHLer Reid Schaefer sneaked into the first round here, a name I've had circled at 46. Jagger Firkus surprisingly did not. Another guy I have in the first round is Chesley and I might prefer him as the next best defender as well. The Caps may be right where the board opens up but Miro as a baseline fallback seems right as far as maximizing value and swinging for upside assuming optimistic medical progress.

Edit: In light of Backstrom's uncertain status I think in this scenario I'm coming around more and more to the likes of Gaucher & Ostlund, two centers with a lot of attributes they like. Ostlund's hockey IQ and positional maturity in particular strikes me as the best option to potentially replace Backstrom's two-way game.

I think they need to take a swing on someone with offensive upside. Yurov dropping because Russia is obviously, I would think, best case scenario. Lambert or McGroarty would be good finds as well, as would Firkus and Snuggerud given their NHL-ready shots. Gaucher at 6’3” and a high motor would seemingly fit their needs and profile.

I’ll be pretty disappointed if they choose another offensively-limited defenseman unless that guy has potential to be an elite shutdown guy. Offensively limited defensemen with size can be found in later rounds.

 

[DWGie26]

I think they need to take a swing on someone with offensive upside. Yurov dropping because Russia is obviously, I would think, best case scenario. Lambert or McGroarty would be good finds as well, as would Firkus and Snuggerud given their NHL-ready shots. Gaucher at 6’3” and a high motor would seemingly fit their needs and profile.

I’ll be pretty disappointed if they choose another offensively-limited defenseman unless that guy has potential to be an elite shutdown guy. Offensively limited defensemen with size can be found in later rounds.

It seems Russians mature slower and I’m not sure I want to go after those players. Drafting today to match the game you need a taller swift skating dee who mentally strong. One who has a frame you can build on. That is easier that making them skate better at that age. There will be plenty of holes with any player where we pick but foundation i am looking at those three things. Height/frame, swift, cerebral.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

It seems Russians mature slower and I’m not sure I want to go after those players. Drafting today to match the game you need a taller swift skating dee who mentally strong. One who has a frame you can build on. That is easier that making them skate better at that age. There will be plenty of holes with any player where we pick but foundation i am looking at those three things. Height/frame, swift, cerebral.

Yurov is pretty widely considered a top-10 talent. Pronman has him at 9. DobberHockey has him at 8, FC Hockey at 5. He had better numbers than Kucherov, Buchnevich, and Amriov in his D-1 year. He’s also noted for his competitiveness in addition to his skill. To me he’s exactly the kind of guy you hope slides and take a chance on. Between Orlov, Fehervary, Alexeyev, Johansen, Iorio, and maybe a few others they have D in the pipeline. With McMike graduated Lapierre is really their only top six projected forward, and maybe Protas and Snively. A limited defenseman is not going to keep the window open.

 

[Langway]

Two assists for Rybinski as Seattle comes back from down 3-1 in their series to beat Portland. Impressive effort again from Schaefer. High floor player.

I can see a place for a lengthy defender alongside Iorio longer-term but it's a bit early for Bichsel. The best word to describe him is raw and although a lot of bigger players take time to fully grow into their frame it brings variance in what he may turn into. It's also probably not an ideal fit having that sort of rawness at a a period when the core's athleticism will be declining further. It's understandable when overlooking those concerns with Leason/Protas later in the draft...less so in the first round. In the first round I'm mostly looking for standout hockey IQ and high leverage potential. The IQ could be there but, again, he's so raw that it's hard to have full confidence he'd pan out into a top four defenseman. He could end up being a Siegenthaler type, which certainly has value but still not an investment I'd readily make at 20.

It's asking a lot for any pick to help keep the window open. Realistically that probably needs to involve engine room type pressers to borrow some soccer terms. The core will increasingly be incapable of such efforts. Kasper & Mateychuk often bring that sort of mentality but will be gone. Ostlund's IQ has many hints of it but he's somewhat small and slight to where you wonder how well it'll end up translating. He could become a home run but still probably as more of a playmaker 2/3 C type. I don't think there's an ideal secondary fit re: those strengths so it still revolves around upside. I can see them liking Gaucher at his size and raw ability. I'm not sure he has an amazing motor per se or that he profiles strongly enough in terms of playmaking to be a true scoring line player or else he'd be closer to Geekie in the rankings. But there are elements for sure.

From a pure skill standpoint the fallback--if not Miro--probably should be either Firkus or Howard. They have questions when it comes to two-way play and their size/skating combo but they're more up their finesse type upside alley. Ohgren as well in some respects. But they really only need one team in front of them going a little bit off the board and a Kulich or McGroarty should be available.

 

[HTFN]

I think they need to take a swing on someone with offensive upside. Yurov dropping because Russia is obviously, I would think, best case scenario. Lambert or McGroarty would be good finds as well, as would Firkus and Snuggerud given their NHL-ready shots. Gaucher at 6’3” and a high motor would seemingly fit their needs and profile.

I’ll be pretty disappointed if they choose another offensively-limited defenseman unless that guy has potential to be an elite shutdown guy. Offensively limited defensemen with size can be found in later rounds.

this is where I land as well.

I'm not saying it will hit but if you think about the organizational needs and the Ovechkin timeline, they need a play driving forward and sort of a homerun pick. Might as well swing for the fences and borderline rush the pick because they're going to be able to rebuild properly when the era is finally over anyway and a 20's draft pick won't solve that.

Someone who best case can play and make an impact in 2-3 years should be high priority, even if it comes with caveats and flaws. If they pick a safe "tools" defenseman again with size and some skill but no real standout qualities I'm gonna flip out.

 

[Cush]

5 Capitals Targets with 20th-Overall Pick of 2022 NHL Draft - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More

The Washington Capitals should have plenty of viable options available to them with the 20th pick in the 2022 NHL Draft.

thehockeywriters.com

Jiri Kulich, Left Wing, HC Energie Karlovy Vary

Lian Bichsel, Left-Handed Defenceman, Leksands IF

Luca Del Bel Belluz, Centreman, Mississauga Steelheads

Owen Pickering, Left-Handed Defenceman, Swift Current Broncos

Jimmy Snuggerud, Right Wing, US National Team Development Programme (USNTDP)

 

[usiel]

5 Capitals Targets with 20th-Overall Pick of 2022 NHL Draft - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More

The Washington Capitals should have plenty of viable options available to them with the 20th pick in the 2022 NHL Draft.

thehockeywriters.com

Those dmen sound like 2nd round picks.

 

[trick9]

Drafting defensive D-men in the first 2 rounds for us would be dumb. They take a really long time to develop and even if they develop well that might still not translate to NHL or at least take a while to do so and then there is a chance that the guy is traded before he starts hitting his stride (see: Jonas Siegenthaler). Also if the offensive upside isn't there then those are the guys who are rather cheap to acquire in Free Agency where you can straight away target a veteran type player that the coach is actually going to trust in.

 

[Hivemind]

Drafting defensive D-men in the first 2 rounds for us would be dumb. They take a really long time to develop and even if they develop well that might still not translate to NHL or at least take a while to do so and then there is a chance that the guy is traded before he starts hitting his stride (see: Jonas Siegenthaler). Also if the offensive upside isn't there then those are the guys who are rather cheap to acquire in Free Agency where you can straight away target a veteran type player that the coach is actually going to trust in.

I don't think drafting defensive D in the early rounds is universally dumb. You should draft the best player available, pretty much always.

That being said, if your scouting staff are continuously pointing to defensive D as the BPA draft-after-draft-after-draft, it's probably worth reconsidering what criteria you're using to determine BPA.

 

[trick9]

I don't think drafting defensive D in the early rounds is universally dumb. You should draft the best player available, pretty much always.

That being said, if your scouting staff are continuously pointing to defensive D as the BPA draft-after-draft-after-draft, it's probably worth reconsidering what criteria you're using to determine BPA.

I agree but there is the 'pretty much' scenario in there. I think it's dumb for us.

With our early picks, i would much rather focus on guys that could help us in 2-4 years rather than 4+ years from now. And if you draft those guys then don't spend 5 years developing them only to trade afterwards to make room for 43-year old Zdeno Chara.

 

[Langway]

I would take Noah Warren if he's still there at 46 for some reason. Or Rinzel. Or, hell, even Pickering. The value generally isn't there in the first round barring significant offensive upside paired along with it...or maybe it being a below average draft where a relatively safe floor becomes appealing. But in the second round generally it's reasonable. Tampa's big defense helps make it easier for them to gap up. It does take time and there are UFAs that maybe can do a comparable job as a stopgap. But if a team believes there's special upside in a guy like Warren, and I think there is, then they should still go pretty early. Being able to groom and build around a player that could become a Cernak is valuable to the point of teams being aggressive in pursuit

20 is much too early for one in this draft. At that spot you want a special talent that checks off pretty much every box or at least has some game-breaking qualities. Skating and being big in this era isn't enough to go quite early unless paired with naturally mature two-way hockey sense. I don't think Bichsel is there. He may have the most raw upside of any of the other D but there's enough downside risk where he may just be at best a Siegenthaler. His puck play and decision-making under pressure are big works in progress and while there's some skill there for a big man it's so raw that I don't know that it projects very highly. A guy like Broberg had better tools, went quite early and is struggling to catch. Hard not to believe Bichsel would be in for a longer process barring a massive jump in it all clicking for him. In the second round that's fine. Maybe very late in the first. Otherwise it's underwhelming to go that raw really early.

Kulich is probably a realistic best-case scenario at 20. He would be a throwback to the dynamic finesse European first rounder but not a perimeter guy, better able to simplify, a strong shooter and PP factor. He looks the part of maybe a less dynamic Kyle Connor. He's right up their Euro alley and I think in a way that's fundamentally more effective than a Vrana/Bura.

 

[pman25]

Feels like we are at our best picking a skilled winger or center. Just get someone who scores and produces. I like Byron Baders model. Obviously some misses here and there, but the general idea is that if they're gonna be a producer in the NHL, they need production in junior leagues or lower level mens leagues. That's the best predictor of success. Yes, it's pretty much just looking at their point totals but it works! Yes, scouts should consider factors why a guys point production might be inflated (or deflated) but it's a pretty good basis.

Stay away from defensemen who don't produce. Take those guys in round 4-7 along with goalies. Go for skill, wherever it is, in the early rounds

 

[pman25]

I'd be all over a guy like Lane Hutson. That's type of talent you gamble on, even if he's small. At the Winnipeg pick, gimme. Hell even 20th overall depending on the talent that's available. Finished second all time in points for a defenseman at the NTDP. Some guys he finished above include Fox, Hughes, Hughes, Sanderson, and McAvoy.

 

[pman25]

My favorites list for 20 as far as betting on skill / production

F: Danila Yurov, Frank Nazar, Rutger McGroarty, Cutter Gauthier, Isaac Howard, Liam Ohgren, Jagger Firkus
D: Denton Mateychuk, Lane Hutson, Kevin Korchinski

Guessing a lot of these guys go before 20. Most realistically we'd have a decent shot at Howard, Firkus, Ohgren, and Hutson.

For the 2nd/3rd rd I like guys like Servac Petrovsky or Fraser Minten, they fit more as two way guys that are already very solid defensive forwards and likely more room to grow offensively, even though they still had solid offensive production.

 

[Langway]

Nazar & Gauthier are likely gone, yeah. Same with Mateychuk & Korchinski. Miroshnichenko also qualifies. Once considered a top five prospect but likely to slide due to medicals ala Lapierre seems familiar enough.

Some more upside plays at 46: Havelid (the RD), Lutz, Bystedt, Del Bel Belluz, Trikozov & Perevalov. It'll be a function of who slides but there are bound to be some strong options available. I wouldn't bundle that pick to move up unless they can get to 13 or something and get someone they consider a no doubt top ten player. Say Lekkerimaki or maybe one of the D. But Yurov or Kulich may have a good chance of sliding to them at 20 and either presents solid value.

 

[neelynugs]

anyone watch brent johnson at all this year? wondering what the eye test said. stats obviously
weren't amazing.

also, who's the biggest pleasant surprise in the prospect pool? i've liked that kid lemay since
his draft year.

 

[Langway]

Juraj Slafkovsky ranks atop Corey Pronman's top 127 players available at the NHL Draft

Corey Pronman ranks the top 127 draft-eligible players in the 2022 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

Seattle/Kamloops Game 7 is tonight for the chance to face Edmonton in the WHL final.

 

[pman25]

anyone watch brent johnson at all this year? wondering what the eye test said. stats obviously
weren't amazing.

also, who's the biggest pleasant surprise in the prospect pool? i've liked that kid lemay since
his draft year.

I don't think he played much in the first half of the season. And when he did, his minutes were limited. He was basically a 7th/8th Dman this year. So yeah stats don't look good even though he "played" a decent amount of games. Seems he became more trusted down the stretch. North Dakota wasn't a super high scoring team anyway. I imagine a bigger role for him next year, assuming he stays. I haven't heard otherwise.

As for pleasant surprise...no one really. Haven't been super thrilled with our mid to late round picks. I know you can't expect too much but damn feels like we would be able to hit on decent player there soon. It would just be nice to get a Drake Batherson, Mark Stone, Jesper Bratt, Yegor Sharangovich, Ondrej Palat, or a Conor Garland. I mean hell, we can't even produce a regular bottom 6 guy in those rounds outside of maybe Axel Jonsson Fjallby. Just frustrating as hell.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I don't think he played much in the first half of the season. And when he did, his minutes were limited. He was basically a 7th/8th Dman this year. So yeah stats don't look good even though he "played" a decent amount of games. Seems he became more trusted down the stretch. North Dakota wasn't a super high scoring team anyway. I imagine a bigger role for him next year, assuming he stays. I haven't heard otherwise.

As for pleasant surprise...no one really. Haven't been super thrilled with our mid to late round picks. I know you can't expect too much but damn feels like we would be able to hit on decent player there soon. It would just be nice to get a Drake Batherson, Mark Stone, Jesper Bratt, Yegor Sharangovich, Ondrej Palat, or a Conor Garland. I mean hell, we can't even produce a regular bottom 6 guy in those rounds outside of maybe Axel Jonsson Fjallby. Just frustrating as hell.

Lucas Johansen was a pleasant surprise this year. He went from being a total bust and out of the organization’s thoughts to playing well in Hershey, making his NHL debut, and potentially making the roster next year depending on how camp goes.

Alexsei Protas was a pleasant surprise as well. For a third rounder his development has been really encouraging.

 

[um]

Lucas Johansen was a pleasant surprise this year. He went from being a total bust and out of the organization’s thoughts to playing well in Hershey, making his NHL debut, and potentially making the roster next year depending on how camp goes.

Alexsei Protas was a pleasant surprise as well. For a third rounder his development has been really encouraging.

Protas was great to start the year. He looked like he belonged on the 1st line to start the year.

I'll also give a shout out to AJF who showed the potential to replace Hagelin.

 

[pman25]

Yes Protas is nice. We seem to do well enough in rounds 1-3, although it's not been as good as it was from 2004-2014 . I get frustrated at the lack of NHL talent they are able to bring in in rounds 4-7. I get it, most NHL players come from those top rounds, but just getting one solid NHLer late in the draft can be a game changer. I just want a Troy Terry, or a Jaccob Slavin, or an Igor Shesterkin. That's a lot to ask of course, but lately we pick a lot of guys that don't even get contracts or flame out of Hershey after two seasons

And even a lot of our recent 1st / 2nd / 3rd rd picks seem destined mostly for career minor league hockey (Pilon, Johansen, Alexeyev, Leason, Clark, Sutter). The ones that do hit, we end up trading away like Stephenson and Siegenthaler. It would just be easier when we have that occasional miss in the early rounds to make up for it with a star in late rounds. Never happens for us!

 

[Vilica]

I don't think he played much in the first half of the season. And when he did, his minutes were limited. He was basically a 7th/8th Dman this year. So yeah stats don't look good even though he "played" a decent amount of games. Seems he became more trusted down the stretch. North Dakota wasn't a super high scoring team anyway. I imagine a bigger role for him next year, assuming he stays. I haven't heard otherwise.

As for pleasant surprise...no one really. Haven't been super thrilled with our mid to late round picks. I know you can't expect too much but damn feels like we would be able to hit on decent player there soon. It would just be nice to get a Drake Batherson, Mark Stone, Jesper Bratt, Yegor Sharangovich, Ondrej Palat, or a Conor Garland. I mean hell, we can't even produce a regular bottom 6 guy in those rounds outside of maybe Axel Jonsson Fjallby. Just frustrating as hell.

I think when looking at round 3 and later, the randomness inherent in its lottery aspect is ignored more than it should be. Let's take the universe of Mac's first 5 drafts in charge, so 2014 through 2018, and concentrate just on picks in round 3 or later. That gives us a total universe of 605 picks made by 30 teams over 5 years, and the sum total of impact, multi-season players is like 25 guys.

[We have Shesterkin, D. Toews, Point, Cirelli, Kaprizov, Fox as the absolute studs (6 players). Next step down, Sorokin, Arvidsson, Bunting, Forsling, Marino, Gavrikov, Garland, Mangiapane, Hagel, Bratt, Batherson - 11 more significant contributors. Further out, Merzlikins, Husso, Labanc, Olofsson, Engvall, Kase, Vejmelka, Terry - 8 more guys. You can quibble with the tiers, or add more players, but these lists are representative.]

So over a 5 year period, by randomness, we'd expect each team to have 1 late round draft pick pan out, and it'd be a surprise if multiple players hit. The Capitals struck out on their 20 picks, unless Mitchell Gibson pans out - and if he were to become like a 1b goalie, that'd be about the expected return for all those picks.

If we look at the 5 drafts before Mac took over, which were generally run with the same autonomy by Ross Mahoney, the 09-13 drafts feature as round 3 and later Cody Eakin, Philipp Grubauer, Travis Boyd, Chandler Stephenson, Connor Carrick, and Christian Djoos as 'success' stories. If you look at the universe of successful picks, it is again around that 25-30 picks of 600, with the absolute studs list being around 6 - Stone, Gaudreau, Parayko, Slavin, Hellebuyck, Saros.

So the Capitals 'ran hot' in 09-13, and 'ran cold' in 14-18, while generally picking in the same area in the later rounds (20 picks 14-18, 21 picks 09-13, sat out both the 2017 and 2011 drafts). Looking at the type of late round picks that were successful more recently, the common denominator for a lot of them is undersized. The Caps missed that small skilled players would be helped by this new era of hockey. I don't know if they've edited their draft lists to accommodate for that, but undoubtedly they have.

The final thing I wanted to note was the drafting of Holtby in 2008 - that was the late round impact player that would qualify as one of the studs in a 04-08 draft recap. In a 15 year draft recap, you'd expect about 15-20 impact guys to be drafted late, and about half the teams in the league to draft 1, and the Caps were one of those teams.

 

[pman25]

Yeah Holtby and Grubauer seem to be the last players of impact from those later rounds. But yeah since then, nothing really. And my qualms basically start with is they don't even really attempt to take guys that fit the likely profile of turning into a regular NHLer. And that starts simply with production. Guys like Batherson, Terry, Mangiapane, and Garland all produced despite being taken later. No disrespect to the following guys, but we're taking fliers on Haakon Hanelt? Dru Krebs? Sebastian Walfridsson? Alex Kannock Leipert? And Kody Clark in his 39 points in 56 games in the 2nd??? It's like we aren't even giving ourselves a chance. And sure tons of great producers amount to nothing in the NHL, but it's not really often that you strike gold on a player who didn't produce in juniors.

 

[Langway]

Rybinski deflection goal gives Seattle a 3-1 lead in G7. 3-2 the final.